Sports
Shaikin: Polymarket shouldn't allow people to profit by betting on the L.A. firestorm
In our sporting corner of the world, betting is everywhere.
Consider Major League Baseball: The league has official gaming partners, the broadcast home of its “Sunday Night Baseball” showcase boasts an official sportsbook, and the Dodgers’ World Series celebration was sponsored by a local resort and casino. On the television screen, the bottom line provides updates on odds as well as scores.
You can bet on the next pitch, the next home run, the next game, the next World Series. You might enjoy betting on sports, or you might disdain it.
Betting on tragedy? Profiting off the pain of our community? We all should condemn that.
Polymarket, which bills itself as a “prediction market,” invited you as of Thursday to stake some bucks on 18 questions related to the Southern California wildfires, including these: How many acres will the Palisades wildfire burn by Friday? Will the Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday? When will the Palisades wildfire be 50% contained? Will all L.A. wildfires be fully contained before February?
“My guess,” said Nathaniel Fast, director of the USC Neely Center for Ethical Leadership and Decision Making, “is that most people don’t like the idea of individuals betting on or making money off disasters and catastrophes.”
Polymarket aims to set the chance of something happening, then harness collective opinion to adjust that probability in real time.
For instance, with the chance of the Palisades wildfire being 50% contained by Jan. 19 set at 86% on Thursday, you would take “yes” and could win $102 or would take “no” and could win $571. The market adjusts the chance, and in turn the chance adjusts the market.
In a statement to The Times, a Polymarket spokesman said: “These markets address the same questions being discussed across cable news and X. We’ve proven that prediction markets can be an invaluable alternative information source for those seeking real-time quantitative data.”
Said Fast: “I have a hard time imagining that people are logging onto Polymarket to decide whether or not to evacuate.
“On the other hand, though, if they are able to demonstrate repeatedly in events like this that they really can generate accurate forecasts, I think it’s possible that, in the future, this could prove to be a useful tool.”
In the torrent of social media misinformation generated by an event and its immediate aftermath, prediction markets driven in part by social media run a risk of their own.
On its site, Polymarket says this is one criterion for the company opening a prediction market: “Is there social good or news value in understanding the probability generated by the market?”
Said Fast: “It could create the incentive to influence events or, in the case of wildfires, it could lead to a callous attitude toward others’ suffering. If we are gamifying life-and-death issues, it could really negatively influence culture and society in a way we don’t like.”
Polymarket offers odds on such topics as the NFL playoffs, whether Donald Trump will follow through on his pledge to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, whether Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift get engaged this year, and how many times Elon Musk will tweet in a given week.
All good. But this is not the first time Polymarket has used disaster as the basis for investment.
In 2023, after the submersible Titan was lost at sea en route to the Titanic, Polymarket asked: “Will the missing submarine be found by June 23?” Mother Jones found two investors, one who bet yes and one who bet no.
“Despite taking opposite sides of the bet, thanks to clever playing of the odds,” Mother Jones reported, “both … came away with thousands of dollars.”
Polymarket does not. According to the company spokesperson, Polymarket “does not charge fees on any market and currently does not generate any revenue.”
That might be the only thing worse than a company profiting off human misfortune: a tech startup enabling lots of people to profit off human misfortune.
The Polymarket statement to The Times started this way: “We express our deepest sympathies to everyone affected by these fires and appreciate the heroic work underway by first responders and everyday Angelenos.”
The statement is hollow so long as people still can stake their dollars on the calamities befalling everyday Angelenos. Polymarket should take down those wildfire odds. Those six historic words from 1954 ring true today: Have you no sense of decency?
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After a slow first round at Aronimink Golf Club in Philadelphia on Thursday, pace of play was a point of emphasis at the PGA Championship on Friday.
However, when an official approached Justin Thomas and Keegan Bradley, they became animated.
Thomas, a longtime Team USA Ryder Cup member, and Bradley, last year’s United States captain, were on the fourth hole when they were approached by an official in a cart, and the conversation quickly turned into finger-pointing.
Justin Thomas and Keegan Bradley watch from the tenth green during the second round of the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown, Pennsylvania, on May 15, 2026. (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
Thomas said after the round that he, Bradley and fellow USA Ryder Cupper Cameron Young, who won the Cadillac Championship earlier this month, were put on the clock, with the official telling them to pick up the pace. However, both Bradley and Thomas appeared to point at the group in front of them.
“We just didn’t really agree with it,” Thomas said, citing course conditions, high winds and tough pins. “We were behind. That wasn’t our issue… It’s just the fact that we weren’t holding up the group behind us.”
Thomas said they were caught up with the pace on the very next hole.
Justin Thomas plays his shot on the 15th tee during the second round of the PGA Championship in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, on May 15, 2026. (Bill Streicher/Imagn Images)
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Thomas had a lengthy conversation with the official, while Bradley appeared to make his point short and sweet — though he was definitely not happy with the call.
It is a large PGA Championship field, with 156 golfers at the course and groups even starting their rounds on the back nine. The scores have also been rather high, with just 25 players below par at the time of publishing.
Aronimink also features a shared tee box on 1 and 10, holes 9 and 17 crossing paths, and a lengthy par-3 eighth hole that’s causing problems. Three par-3s are over 200 yards on the course, and there is also a 457-yard par 4 on the fourth.
Keegan Bradley prepares to putt on the 14th green during the first round of the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, on May 14, 2026. (Bill Streicher/Imagn Images)
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As Chris Gotterup put it on Friday, “You’re not going to get any four-and-a-half hour rounds out here.”
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The Sparks are finally in the win column, but the outcome was in doubt late Friday night.
Behind double-digit scoring from all five starters, the Sparks had by far their best offensive showing of the season, shooting 63.8% during a 99-95 win over the expansion Toronto Tempo.
The Tempo didn’t make things easy, cutting the deficit to two points late and later trailing by just three with 31 seconds remaining and possession of the ball. Marina Mabrey missed a three-point attempt before late Tempo fouls gave the Sparks enough of a cushion to win.
Kelsey Plum nearly claimed a double-double with 27 points and nine assists, while Dearica Hamby had 19 points with seven rebounds and Nneka Ogwumike scored 20 points.
Erica Wheeler, who started in place of Ariel Atkins (concussion), scored 10 points with seven assists and was a plus-16 as the primary ball handler after starting the season two for 16 from the field. That freed up Plum to be in position to score, setting up a much more efficient Sparks offense.
Toronto was shorthanded in the frontcourt without starting center Temi Fagbenle (right shoulder), and the Sparks trio of bigs had a field day with 54 points in the paint.
The Sparks came out firing on Friday, opening with a 17-2 run.
The Tempo went on a 10-0 burst heading into the second quarter but the Sparks countered to maintain momentum and led 46-38 at halftime.
A Wheeler three-pointer early in the third quarter gave the Sparks a 20-point lead. The Tempo cut it to three midway through the fourth while Brittany Sykes (27 points, seven assists) sparked Toronto’s rally. The Tempo put up more shots than the Sparks, 70-58, largely because of a 10-2 offensive-rebounding gap.
Cameron Brink’s 10 points were the only ones provided by the Sparks’ bench, while the Tempo got 42 points from reserves.
Toronto was coming off its first win in franchise history on Wednesday when it defeated Seattle but struggled against a more complete offensive team in the Sparks.
In her return to Los Angeles after winning a national championship with UCLA this spring, Tempo rookie Kiki Rice netted 11 points.
Kate Martin made her Sparks debut as a developmental player with Atkins and Sania Feagin (lower left leg) unavailable and picked up one rebound in six minutes.
The Sparks will face Toronto again on Sunday at Crypto.com Arena.
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The WNBA season has been in session for about a week, so it is far too early to make assumptions about teams. That doesn’t mean we won’t make them; it’s just too early to really believe it. I lost my first WNBA bet this season, so I’m hoping to avenge that loss here as the Sky take on the Mercury.
The Chicago Sky are one of the most poorly run franchises in basketball. They have had some great names on their team and only one championship to show for it.
Phoenix Mercury forward DeWanna Bonner shoots over Indiana Fever guard Aerial Powers in the first half at PHX Arena. (Rick Scuteri/Imagn Images)
There really isn’t a clear indication of what is wrong with the franchise, but they’ve never been able to retain their talent. Aside from Kamilla Cardoso, I can’t name a player on this team that they’ve actually drafted. They just seem to get good players and then show them the door.
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Even though they’ve had questionable front office decisions, they seem to have put together a solid team for this season – something I didn’t expect before the season started.
They are 2-0, which is too early to really say they are a good team. I also want to reserve judgment until they face a team with a longer history than last year. The Portland Tempo played their first-ever game against the Sky, and Golden State was good last year, but still is in just their second season of existence.
The Phoenix Mercury are actually considered one of the best franchises in the league. I’m sure there are issues that people have reported, but for the most part, they have good facilities, and people want to play for their team. They made it all the way to the WNBA Finals last season before falling to the Las Vegas Aces. This year, they are looking to restart that journey and see if they can win the last game of the year.
Phoenix Mercury guard Kahleah Copper dribbles the ball in the second half at CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C., on July 27, 2025. (Emily Faith Morgan-Imagn Images)
It will need to come with some better play than they’ve shown through three games this year. They are just 1-2 for the year with a 0-1 home record. The lone win was a blowout victory over the Aces (a clear revenge game if we’ve ever seen one). Then they lost the next two games against Golden State and Minnesota. Losing to the Lynx wouldn’t be a problem, but they didn’t have Napheesa Collier, who still has an ankle injury.
I expect the Mercury to make some adjustments for this game. They haven’t looked very crisp to begin the year, but they’ve been strong on offense, averaging 87 points per game.
The Sky are going to keep relying on their offense to do just enough and their defense to lock in. The Sky do have an edge on the interior, so they can get buckets fairly easily down low. I like the over 166.5 in this game.
Chicago Sky guard Skylar Diggins chases the ball during the fourth quarter against the Golden State Valkyries at Chase Center in San Francisco, Calif., on May 13, 2026. (Bob Kupbens/Imagn Images)
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I also think it is worth betting on Kahleah Copper to go over her point total. Copper had two rough games before she broke out in the last game. Now she has the same sight lines and can attack the bigs from the Sky with her athleticism. Since going to Phoenix, she has scored 29, 7, 16, 25 and 28 points in five games against them.
For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024
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