That is an opinion editorial by Mike Ermolaev, head of public relations and content material at Kikimora Labs.
Setting The Context: World Financial system Fundamentals
The financial system remains to be recovering from the COVID-19 outbreak as new issues come up. We at the moment are in a time of rampant inflation with central banks making an attempt to treatment that by elevating rates of interest.
The U.S. CPI knowledge (shopper value index), launched on October 13, got here in larger than anticipated (8.2% year-over-year), negatively impacting the bitcoin value. However inflation isn’t the one concern, the worldwide financial system can also be battling the power disaster, affecting Europe greater than the U.S., as a result of its robust dependency on Russian pure fuel and uncooked materials.
On the jap aspect, the battle in Ukraine with ensuing sanctions on Russia, add additional geopolitical instability and financial uncertainty. Additionally, China’s zero-COVID coverage is disrupting the availability chain worldwide, and the Evergrande default undermines one of many world’s largest economies.
If we take a look at the primary currencies, the greenback index seems robust, in comparison with others. The Federal Reserve raised rates of interest by 75 foundation factors in November, and the Financial institution of England raised rates of interest by the identical quantity. This coverage of quantitative tightening goals to cut back the cash provide and mitigate value strain. It’s prone to proceed into subsequent yr and past. Nonetheless, a worldwide recession and danger of stagflation remains to be very robust, so no nation could really feel protected from central financial institution financial coverage.
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Bitcoin Correlation With The Financial system
Bitcoin has proven to not be immune from this international turmoil. Though the worth in its early stage was unbiased of conventional finance, correlation started to point out in 2016.
(Source)
The concept of bitcoin as a “digital gold” grew to become fashionable as a result of each shared the shortage and issue of extraction (mining), in addition to fulfilled the function of being a retailer of worth. Since many view bitcoin as a danger asset, its correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 grew to become seen — no completely different than conventional shares.
On the time of writing, bitcoin’s 40-day value correlation with gold reached 0.50 (after being round zero in August). Based on Alkesh Shah and Andrew Moss, strategists from Financial institution of America:
“A decelerating constructive correlation with SPX/QQQ and a quickly rising correlation with XAU point out that traders could view bitcoin as a relative protected haven as macro uncertainty continues and a market backside stays to be seen.”
Damaging Occasions
There are some macroeconomic elements within the bigger cryptocurrency ecosystem that contributed to a bearish market: the Terra/LUNA collapse, compelled liquidation of Three Arrows Capital and the chapter of Celsius being the primary ones.
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The incoming bitcoin mining laws by the EU and the present profitability disaster of bitcoin mining should be additionally considered.
Bitcoin: Current And Future
Regardless of all of the above hostile occasions, bitcoin was capable of one way or the other hold its value within the $19,000-$20,000 vary, with record-low volatility. Presently, we’re observing uncommon stability within the bitcoin value, not too long ago even matching volatility of the British pound.
Quite the opposite, shares have skilled excessive volatility and whipsaw value motion, additionally following speculations in regards to the Fed’s future choices. Based on Bloomberg’s Chief Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone, that’s why bitcoin could rise after a steep low cost and ultimately beat the S&P 500. He believes that bitcoin’s finite provide and deflationary strategy could assist it recuperate its earlier value ranges.
Because the final flash crash in mid-June, the worth has been fairly regular, however we all know it not often sits nonetheless for too lengthy. Which means that the likelihood of a sudden (bullish or bearish) breakout will increase over time. The longer the worth stays idle, the stronger the breakout goes to be.
Bitcoin value consolidation
Moreover, the BTC futures open curiosity is larger than ever, with liquidations reaching all-time low. Quite a lot of liquidity is accumulating right here, that means that there will likely be an excellent stronger impulse when the worth begins to maneuver once more.
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Based on the strategist Benjamin Cowen, bitcoin is predicted to rise to “truthful worth,” after falling an extra 15%. “Proper now, the info would recommend that we’re about 50% undervalued in comparison with the place the truthful worth is.” Cowen thinks we might have to attend till early 2024 to see this rise occur.
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Goldman Sachs strategist Kamakshya Trivedi has a distinct view, claiming that the U.S. greenback index, exhibiting report values since 2002, could also be unhealthy information for the at present bearish bitcoin.
A Bearish Situation: Might The 2018 Drop Occur Once more?
Some analysts have been questioning if the 2018 state of affairs (low volatility, then large value drop) could occur once more right this moment as a result of the market circumstances look fairly comparable. Now we have the identical 10% buying and selling vary and we all know one thing goes to occur quickly.
Comparability between 2022 BTC value (prime) versus 2018 (backside) utilizing eight-hour candles. (Source)
A exceptional distinction between the 2 cycles is that in 2018 there was a rise in addresses despatched to identify exchanges, whereas in our present cycle we’re observing liquidity transferring away from exchanges and never many new addresses being created. Based on a CryptoQuant analyst, this could imply that we received’t witness an analogous state of affairs to 2018.
A 2018/2022 comparability of spot change depositing addresses. (Source)
What About Uptober and Moonvember?
Traditionally, This fall is a superb time for bitcoin, with bullish tendencies beginning in October and growing in November. So the months of October and November have been colloquially renamed “Uptober” and “Moonvember” — no less than, that is what occurred again in 2021.
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Can we nonetheless count on such a bullish This fall in 2022? It’s exhausting to say, however the hostile macroeconomic state of affairs and geopolitical points make it tougher to think about the identical rally we noticed final yr. In any case, the bitcoin market has been down for 10 consecutive months and we don’t see any specific signal of restoration in the meanwhile.
We should additionally remember the fact that, regardless of the detrimental international state of affairs, the “protected haven” function of bitcoin could contribute to giving the worth some further energy, particularly in these troubled instances.
Alternate Knowledge Evaluation
Liquidation knowledge on the Bitfinex change was analyzed by filbfilb. He concluded that an upward breakout would have much less momentum than a downward one. In truth, liquidity above $20,500 is usually 10x, whereas liquidity beneath $18,000 is predominantly 10x, 5x and 3x, which signifies that a bullish breakout could be “much less brutal” than a bearish one.
We’re at present witnessing a interval of stasis within the bitcoin market. The bitcoin value wants to start out transferring once more after two months of consolidation. The general financial state of affairs doesn’t look shiny in any respect, and bitcoin is correlated to occasions in the true world, however traders can nonetheless acknowledge the digital gold, safe-haven function of the most well-liked cryptocurrency. A robust bitcoin value breakout is predicted, with new volatility incoming.
The attainable eventualities could also be: a fast dump after which a bullish restoration (V-shaped bounce) or an extended and deeper value collapse, after the break of the $19,000 resistance stage.
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No matter occurs, bitcoin will hold being probably the most modern know-how of the final decade, permitting monetary freedom and direct management over one’s personal wealth. Bitcoin has traditionally witnessed quite a few robust bearish instances and has at all times recovered from them.
This can be a visitor put up by Mike Ermolaev. Opinions expressed are completely their very own and don’t essentially replicate these of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Journal.
The Presidential Leadership Scholars Program announced that State Finance Director Bill Poole has been selected as a member of the Presidential Leadership Scholars Class of 2025. As one of 57 Scholars, Director Poole will join accomplished leaders in education, healthcare, public service, business, and other sectors to learn and hone leadership skills through interactions with former presidents, noted academics and industry leaders.
For the past decade, PLS has united a broad network of established public and private sector leaders to collaborate and create positive change in their communities and across the world. Chosen for their demonstrated leadership and support of projects aimed at addressing challenges and improving communities, Scholars will participate in a six-month program focused on core leadership skills, including: vision and communication, decision making, and strategic partnerships.
“It is an incredible honor to be named to the 2025 Class of Presidential Leadership Scholars,” said Director Poole. “I look forward to interacting with and learning from past presidents and industry leaders. I am excited to work alongside peers from across the country that are dedicated to promoting civic engagement and working on issues that will improve our communities.”
In addition to visiting four presidential centers, scholars will participate in a personal leadership project addressing local and global issues.
“I am proud to surround myself with a dedicated team of public servants to help propel Alabama forward, and I am certainly glad that includes Bill Poole. It is very exciting Bill has been selected for the Presidential Leadership Scholars Program, and I know he will represent our state well,” said Governor Kay Ivey. “Congratulations to Bill as he continues taking steps to develop and best serve the people of Alabama.”
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Bill Poole was appointed Finance Director for the State of Alabama on August 1, 2021. As Alabama’s chief financial officer, Poole serves as an advisor to the governor and the legislature on all financial matters and is charged with promoting and protecting the fiscal interests of the State of Alabama. He also serves as chairman of Innovate Alabama, the state’s first public-private partnership tasked with promoting entrepreneurship, technology and innovation. Poole was a member of the Alabama House of Representatives for eleven years, where he served as chairman of the House Ways and Means Education appropriations committee for eight of those years.
To learn more about the Presidential Leadership Scholars program, visit “Presidential Leadership Scholars.”
Block said the issues raised by the regulator were “historical” and did not “reflect the Cash App experience today” [File]
| Photo Credit: REUTERS
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) on Thursday ordered payments firm Block to pay a penalty citing fraud and weak security protocols on its mobile payment service Cash App.
The regulator said Block, which is led by tech entrepreneur Jack Dorsey, directed Cash App users who experienced fraud-related losses to contact their banks for transaction reversals.
However, when the banks approached Block regarding these claims, Block denied that any fraud had occurred.
Cash App is one of the largest peer-to-peer payment platforms in the U.S. and allows consumers to send and receive electronic money transfers, accept direct deposits and use a prepaid card to make purchases.
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“When things went wrong, Cash App flouted its responsibilities and even burdened local banks with problems that the company caused,” said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra.
In response, Block said the issues raised by the regulator were “historical” and did not “reflect the Cash App experience today.”
“While we strongly disagree with the CFPB’s mischaracterizations, we made the decision to settle this matter in the interest of putting it behind us and focusing on what’s best for our customers and our business,” the company said.
The move is one of the final regulatory actions under the Biden administration as Washington awaits the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. Billionaire Elon Musk, who is slated to co-head a new government agency to slash government spending, has called for the elimination of the CFPB.
The CFPB’s order includes up to $120 million in redress to consumers and a $55 million penalty to be paid into the CFPB’s victim relief fund.
The regulator also alleged that Block deployed a range of tactics to suppress Cash App users from seeking help in order to reduce its own costs.
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Block’s gross profit rose 19% to $2.25 billion in the third quarter ended Sept 30, with Cash App accounting for $1.31 billion of the total income.
On Wednesday, the company also agreed to pay $80 million to a group of 48 state financial regulators after the agencies determined the company had insufficient policies for policing Cash App.
Call Scheduled for 11:30 am ET on Friday, March 14, 2025
NEW YORK, Jan. 16, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Logan Ridge Finance Corporation (Nasdaq: LRFC) (“LRFC,” “Logan Ridge” or the “Company”) to release its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2024, on Thursday, March 13, 2025, after market close. The Company will host a conference call on Friday, March 14, 2025, at 11:30 a.m. ET to discuss these results.
By Phone: To access the call, please dial (646) 968-2525 approximately 10 minutes prior to the start of the conference call and use the conference ID 1779602.
A replay of this conference call will be available shortly after the live call through March 21, 2025.
By Webcast: A live audio webcast of the conference call can be accessed via the Internet, on a listen-only basis at https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/h9fj5e3y. The online archive of the webcast will be available on the Company’s website shortly after the call at www.loganridgefinance.com in the Investor Resources section under Events and Presentations.
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About Logan Ridge Finance Corporation
Logan Ridge Finance Corporation (Nasdaq: LRFC) is a publicly traded, externally managed investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Logan Ridge invests primarily in first lien loans and, to a lesser extent, second lien loans and equity securities issued by lower middle market companies. Logan Ridge Finance Corporation is externally managed by Mount Logan Management, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Mount Logan Capital Inc. Both Mount Logan Management, LLC and Mount Logan Capital Inc. are affiliates of BC Partners Advisors L.P.
Logan Ridge’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), earnings releases, press releases and other financial, operational and governance information are available on the Company’s website at loganridgefinance.com.
Contacts: Logan Ridge Finance Corporation 650 Madison Avenue, 3rd floor New York, NY 10022
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