Connect with us

California

LA fires clobber California economy after recession | Opinion

Published

on

LA fires clobber California economy after recession | Opinion

Three days after immensely destructive and deadly wildfires broke out in and around Los Angeles, Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed a $322.3 billion state budget with a positive revenue forecast “based on an assumption of continued but slowing economic growth.”

The new 2025-26 budget is already outdated because the fires, which are still growing, will have a heavy impact on both the income and outgo sides of the budget, by reducing economic activity in Southern California and increasing pressure for fire suppression and recovery aid from Sacramento.

The fires struck as California’s economy was still recovering from the brief but sharp recession that hit the state five years ago when Newsom ordered shutdowns to battle the COVID-19 pandemic. About 3 million workers were idled, and recovery has been mediocre at best. California’s unemployment rate, 5.4% in November, the latest month for which data are available, was the second highest of any state, with more than a million unemployed workers.

Advertisement

A broader federal Bureau of Labor Statistics measure of unemployment or underemployment provides an even dimmer picture. The U-6 rate, as it’s dubbed, counts “total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.”

(Marginally attached workers are people who aren’t working or looking for work but who want a job and have looked for one in the last 12 months.)

California’s current U-6 rate is 10%, by far the highest of any state and more than twice the national rate. It’s even higher — 11.8% — in Los Angeles.

Beacon Economics, in an analysis of the latest data, says that employment growth in California has trailed the nation in recent years: “Since February 2020 (the start of the pandemic), total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 2.5% compared to a 4.6% increase nationally.”

“There are a mix of influences both driving and constraining the state’s job growth,” Justin Niakamal, Beacon’s research manager, commented. “On one hand, California is seeing comparatively high incomes, strong consumer demand, and high economic output, but our critical lack of housing supply has led to the state’s well-known labor force contraction, and that is most certainly holding back job growth.”

Advertisement

The wildfires are obviously one uncertain factor in how California’s economy fares over the next few years — but not the only one.

Newsom’s budget, without mentioning him by name, cites Donald Trump’s recapture of the White House as “the most immediate risk to the forecast,” listing Trump’s vows to impose tariffs on imported goods and deport undocumented immigrants.

“California would also be especially vulnerable to tariffs as the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland and the logistics industry that is concentrated in the Inland Empire are highly dependent on foreign trade,” the budget declares, adding, “To the extent that existing workers are deported and potential new workers banned or discouraged from immigrating, many sectors of the U.S. and California economies could face labor shortages, leading to price increases in the goods and services produced by these sectors.”

However, even if the fires had not occurred and Trump not been elected, the state would still face a declining labor force, as a new report from the Public Policy Institute of California notes.

“In the last two decades, the share of the population participating in the labor force has fallen five percentage points (from 67% to 62% today) due to the aging of California’s population,” PPIC analyst Sarah Bohn writes. “As the population continues to age and the state faces a shrinking workforce, preparing Californians who can and want to work will become more essential.

“California’s current economic realities reflect the volatile macroeconomic conditions we’ve weathered since the pandemic as well as long-term challenges that have been brewing for decades,” she continues.

Advertisement


Source link

California

California’s race for governor and other key primaries remain unsettled as vote count continues

Published

on

California’s race for governor and other key primaries remain unsettled as vote count continues


California’s crowded, protracted gubernatorial primary is going to take a little more time to settle.

The race remained too early to call Wednesday morning with 50% of the expected vote counted, according to NBC News’ Decision Desk. Three main candidates — former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican, and two Democrats, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and billionaire activist Tom Steyer — are competing for two spots in the general election, with the candidate in fourth place, Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, running well behind.

Hilton had 27% support in the all-party primary with about half of votes still left to count, while Becerra had 26% and Steyer had 20%. Bianco was the only other candidate in double digits, at 11%.

In California, all candidates run on the same primary ballot in the primary and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, move on to the general election.

Advertisement

It’s difficult to say when it will be clear which two candidates advance to the November general election, however, due to the state’s protracted vote counting.

And with millions of ballots left to count, other key races in California remain uncalled as well, including the second runoff spot to face Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass one on one in November, several House races that could help determine the majority next year, and more.

In the governor’s race, all three candidates rallied supporters around the state as the evening drew on.

“We’re not there yet, but it’s looking good,” Hilton told allies. “It looks very much as if Californians really will have the chance to vote for change in November and take our state in a new direction, a fresh start for our state, which is long overdue.”

But while Hilton was narrowly in first place when he spoke, Democratic candidates were capturing the majority of the votes.

Becerra looked back at his own “underdog story,” from his immigrant relatives to his bid for governor, which took some time to catch fire.

Advertisement

“Almost immediately, he’s counted out, an afterthought, overlooked by many, outspent by a ton, even called along the way to drop out and save us the trouble,” Becerra recounted to his supporters. “Well, guess what? The underdog stayed in the fight. Like my parents, I never gave up.”

Steyer struck a hopeful note in his election night speech despite a deficit in the vote count.

“It might take some time to figure out where this is going, we’re going to wait till every ballot is counted, we’re going to give democracy a time to work, and we know we finished really strong,” Steyer said.

Major battleground districts

GOP Rep. David Valadao’s district has been one of Democrats’ top targets for years, but two Democrats are locked in a close race for the second spot in the November general election against the incumbent.

School board member Randy Villegas, who won support from national progressives, has a slight lead over state legislator Jasmeet Bains, 30% to 26%, with less than half of the expected vote tallied in the 22nd District. Valadao is comfortably in first place.

Advertisement

And in Northern California’s 6th District, Rep. Kevin Kiley — who was elected as a Republican and switched to become an independent this election cycle, as he runs in another newly redrawn district — is bunched up in a tight race that includes Democrat Richard Pan, a former state legislator, and Republican Michael Stansfield. Currently, Stansfield is running ahead of Pan; they spent much of Tuesday night and Wednesday morning trading the lead, which could have significant general election implications.

Meanwhile, outside California, Democrats think they might be able to challenge for one of Montana’s red-tinted congressional districts this fall, after Rep. Ryan Zinke decided to retire. But less than 2 percentage points separate Democrats Sam Forstag and Ryan Busse with more than 85% of the expected vote tallied in their primary in Montana’s 1st District.

Read more about Tuesday’s House primaries here.

A safe seat battle to watch

Plenty of other House districts in California — and a few elsewhere — still have unsettled primaries, but one attracted particular attention due to how nasty the campaign got.

In Southern California, where two Republican incumbents are facing off in one district due to redistricting, Rep. Ken Calvert has advanced to the general election, but Rep. Young Kim is still battling for the second spot. She leads Democrat Esther Kim-Varet in the race for second, 22% to 16%, with about half of the vote in.

Advertisement

Who will face Bass in Los Angeles?

While Bass is projected to advance to a November runoff in Los Angeles, it’s not yet clear whether she’ll face Republican Spencer Pratt or Democrat Nithya Raman.

Bass has about 37% of the vote to 29% for Pratt and 21% for Raman so far, with approximately half of the expected vote tallied.

Speaking to supporters on election night, Raman, a member of the Los Angeles City Council, said that “tonight may not give us a final answer on this race.”

“Many thousands of votes will be counted in the days ahead, and we may not get an answer we like, but regardless of what happens next, nobody, nobody can take away what all of us have built together,” she continued.

Pratt, meanwhile, was looking ahead to a potential matchup with Bass when he spoke to reporters.

Advertisement

“Now I have five months to get deep into every community that hasn’t heard my message to make them safe,” said Pratt, a former reality TV star. “So I’m actually very excited, because I felt very rushed. It’s a big city, and I was not able to talk to as many people as I look forward to talking to.”

Bass also projected optimism, telling her backers, “We got a lot more to go, but so far it’s looking good.”



Source link

Continue Reading

California

Midterm primaries 2026 live: results and reaction after six states including California and Iowa cast ballots

Published

on

Midterm primaries 2026 live: results and reaction after six states including California and Iowa cast ballots


Lucy Campbell

Millions of voters across the country are heading to the polls today in crucial primaries in a slew of key gubernatorial, Senate and House races.

Here’s a quick rundown of what we’re watching:

California
Voters are casting ballots on who should lead the nation’s most populous state (and the world’s fourth largest economy), where there is no clear leader among candidates vying to advance in the race to succeed term-limited Democratic governor Gavin Newsom. The race for Los Angeles mayor is also on the ballot, along with a series of high-stakes US House contests in the state’s newly redrawn congressional districts – which are set to play an outsized and potentially decisive role in the battle for power in Washington in November’s midterm elections. My colleague Lauren Gambino has more:

Iowa
Per my colleague Chris Stein, with Trump’s approval ratings deep underwater, gas prices high and historical political trends favoring the party out of power, Democrats this year are considering a comeback in Iowa, putting the state at the center of their campaigns to win back control of both the US House and the Senate. That effort for a “once-in-a-generation” breakthrough in the GOP-dominated state is being led by pro-hunting Democrat Rob Sand, who is running for governor. Chris wrote about him below. Democrats also believe they have a shot at winning three of the state’s US House seats and a competitive chance at securing a US Senate seat, where the GOP frontrunner recently called Trump’s war on Iran a “political liability”.

Advertisement

New Jersey
One of this year’s most closely watched House midterms will take place in the battleground district currently represented by now-infamous Republican Tom Kean Jr, who has drawn public scrutiny and concern after missing more than 100 House votes due to an undisclosed illness. Voters are deciding which Democrat will run against him in November – and the seat is a must-win for the party. The frontrunner, veteran army trauma surgeon and political newcomer Adam Hamawy, has secured endorsements from the likes of Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar. My colleague Joseph Gedeon has more:

New Mexico
Contests in the state include primaries for congressional seats, a US Senate seat and a long list of statewide offices, but the governor’s race is the main event. Deb Haaland, who was Joe Biden’s interior secretary, is running for the Democratic nomination, which could put her on a historic path for Native American leaders.

Montana
In Montana, a five-way Democratic fight is under way for the retiring Republican senator’s seat. Independent Seth Bodnar, former president of the University of Montana, is outraising them all at the moment but they’re refusing to step aside, Politico reports this morning.

South Dakota
The race is on for state governor, Sioux Falls mayor, a US Senate and House seat, a Republican primary for local lawmakers. The incumbent GOP governor Larry Rhoden faces three primary challengers in his first run for a full term. He stepped up into the role from the lieutenant governorship when the former governor, the since-ousted Kristi Noem, left to lead the Department of Homeland Security.

The Associated Press contributed reporting

Advertisement

Share

Key events

Joseph Gedeon

On the day Donald Trump endorsed him as a tireless advocate for New Jersey’s seventh district, the representative Tom Kean Jr was, as he has been since early March, nowhere to be found.

Kean, a New Jersey Republican, was last seen when he cast a House floor vote on 5 March, and he is running unopposed in Tuesday’s Republican primary. The Democratic race in his district, meanwhile, has attracted multiple candidates and ample fundraising.

In late April, his office said he was dealing with a “personal medical issue” and would be back “very soon”. He told the New Jersey Globe last month he expected to return within “the next couple of weeks”. In the meantime, Kean’s social media accounts have continued posting regularly, with staff attending ribbon-cuttings and graduation ceremonies on his behalf.

Advertisement

Share



Source link

Continue Reading

California

California Democratic gubernatorial candidate criticized over meeting with trans athlete | Fox News Video

Published

on

California Democratic gubernatorial candidate criticized over meeting with trans athlete | Fox News Video


Roxanne Hoge and Stella Escobedo delve into the latest Berkeley IGS poll, revealing the frontrunners in California’s heated gubernatorial race. The discussion extends to the Los Angeles mayoral race, where candidates Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt are locked in a tight contest. Panelists weigh in on candidate endorsements and the broader political landscape ahead of the upcoming elections.



Source link

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending