But after looking at 300 years of U.S. and U.K. history, the Center for Economic Policy Research found that wars and pandemic-scale emergencies have pummeled holders of debt.

“The historical evidence reveals a striking pattern: government bonds have repeatedly generated substantial real losses during these extreme episodes,” authors Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan wrote. “They have even underperformed equities and real estates which are traditionally regarded as risky assets.”

That’s because wars typically triggered large increases in government spending, averaging about 7% of GDP annually during the first four years, and tax hikes alone were rarely sufficient for financing needs, they added.

The finding comes as the U.S. is waging war on Iran while the national debt has exploded to $39 trillion. The Pentagon is seeking more than $200 billion in a budget request for the conflict, sources told the Washington Post.

Across their dataset, the CEPR authors calculated that bondholders suffered average real losses of roughly 14% during the first four years of conflicts. The losses were so steep that they reduced the real value of government debt outstanding.

To add insult to injury, cumulative bond returns were more than 20% below the cumulative returns on stocks and real estate, the opposite of how those assets perform during financial crises or recessions.

“Whenever there is a major war, we observe a sharp decline in the bond performance — wars are always disaster times for bondholders,” they warned. “Similarly, the bondholders also suffered large losses during the ‘war on Covid-19.’”

A key factor in bond losses is inflation, according to CEPR, which said the cumulative rate averaged about 20% in the first four years of wars.

In fact, during the current U.S.-Israel war on Iran, Treasuries and government debt from other countries have sold off sharply as surging oil prices have raised expectations for elevated inflation while budget deficits are also seen worsening. Since the war began three weeks ago, the U.S. 10-year yield has soared more than 40 basis points.

But profligate spending wasn’t the only way inflation weighed on bonds. The think tank said it was often the result of policy choices to reduce debt burdens without explicitly defaulting, such as by suspending gold standard commitments.

Another reason bonds perform so poorly during wars is so-called financial repression, or government policies that curb borrowing costs by influencing financial markets. That prevents bond yields from keeping pace with inflation.

For example, the Federal Reserve implemented yield-curve control, capped Treasury rates, and launched massive bond buying during World War II.

CEPR’s findings have particular relevance for U.S. debt as Treasuries continue to form the foundation of the global financial system with the dollar serving as the world’s reserve currency.

That status has allowed the U.S. to borrow more cheaply than investors would otherwise allow. Meanwhile, the interest on U.S. debt is now the fastest-growing budget item and is already at $1 trillion a year. CEPR said its report presents governments with an important tradeoff.

“Protecting taxpayers from large spending shocks may require shifting part of the burden onto bondholders through inflation or financial repression,” it said. “Economic theory suggests that such policies may be optimal when taxation is highly distortionary. However, they also reduce the safety of government debt and may raise borrowing costs over time if investors anticipate these risks.”

TAMPA, Fla. – According to new data from AAA, average gas prices in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, and Sarasota Counties are currently sitting just pennies below $4 a gallon.

In Citrus County, the average has already crossed that threshold, according to data.

The pain at the pump is becoming impossible to ignore for Bay Area drivers, and the rising costs are creating a ripple effect that is also hitting local small businesses hard.

Why you should care:

Why does that $4 mark trigger such a strong reaction from drivers?

“We have a bias towards round numbers. It’s why companies set prices at $9.99 instead of $10,” University of Tampa microeconomist Aaron Wood, who studies consumer behavior, said. “We have these reference points, these anchors in our brain. We use these heuristics to make consumption decisions.”

Wood, an associate professor of economics at UT, told FOX 13 it comes down to how our brains process the expense.

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“When you’re standing there, pumping your own gas, you see the rotation of the number and so it’s different than like, if the Netflix price goes up or your lawn service — even sometimes grocery prices — gas is more upsetting. You’re watching it happen as opposed to something being buried in your credit card statement. So I think it’s upsetting to everybody because it’s so visceral, and it’s in your face,” Wood added.

Local perspective:

But that rising price tag isn’t just hurting daily commuters: It’s forcing local business owners to make tough choices, too.

Chris Gonzalez has owned Mona’s Floral Creations in Tampa for seven years. He says fuel costs are constantly on his mind.

“I’ve actually started watching the news every morning just to see how much it’s gone up from the day prior,” Gonzalez said. “I think about it more and more, like not even daily. It’s almost like every few hours I have to think about it, because I try to pass along the best, most competitive prices to my consumer — not only in my flowers, but also in my delivery charges.”

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Mona’s has been serving the Tampa community for nearly 50 years. In the seven years Gonzalez has owned the shop, he has only had to raise his delivery prices twice, from $10 to $12, and then to $15, which is the current rate. Now, he’s unsure what he’ll have to charge next week.

Gonzalez says he hopes that if he does have to raise delivery prices again—potentially up to $18, it will only be temporary.

“I’m trying to be as competitive as possible and continue the Mona’s brand that people know and love around here,” Gonzalez added.

What’s next:

To cope with the surge, Gonzalez is making adjustments to his shop’s daily operations. Instead of delivering a floral arrangement immediately after it’s made, his team is now holding orders so they can group deliveries together based on geographical routes.

“It just makes more sense from a fuel perspective,” he noted.

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And with Mother’s Day right around the corner, Gonzalez said he will be closely watching the changes in gas prices.

“We are in planning mode right now. We’re ordering our flowers. We’re planning what types of arrangements we’re going to offer for sale for moms,” Gonzalez said. “But now I have that additional thing: I have to think about what’s the price of gas going to be like in two months when Mother’s Day’s here?”

Was it only at the new year that the fanfare was heard for the FTSE 100 index breaking through 10,000 for the first time? It was – on 2 January – and the index then added another 900 points by the end of February. On Thursday, the Footsie briefly fell below that round number as Iran struck Qatar’s enormous Ras Laffan complex, which normally supplies a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas, before closing at 10,063, down 2.3% on the day.

There are two ways to view that price action. One is to say the sharp reversal from the peak represents a necessarily severe reaction to the war on Iran. Another is to conclude that a flat year-to-date return, after a bountiful 20% gain in 2025, suggests stock markets have barely begun to take seriously the inflationary impact if the war lasts many more weeks, or even months, and keeps oil above $100 a barrel.

“Markets are very resilient and complacent, ​and we are a bit surprised about that,” said Nicolai Tangen, the head of Norway’s $2tn (£1.5tn) sovereign wealth fund, earlier this week. Well, quite.

The resilience of companies themselves, as he suggested, is perhaps one explanation. Firms can cut costs and try to pass on increases in input prices. Recent shocks, such as the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, may have forced them to inject greater flexibility into their supply chains. It is still far too early to hear profit warnings. In the case of the Footsie, a size-weighted index, there are also a few big constituents that obviously benefit from higher oil and gas prices: Shell and BP are up 24% and 31% respectively since the new year.

Another explanation is that investors may be right – despite the strike on Ras Laffan – to keep the faith and believe that energy prices will calm down soon. That seems to be the consensus opinion. Bank of America’s closely watched regular poll of fund managers this week found that only 11% expect a barrel of Brent to be over $90 by the end of the year, and the average forecast was just $76.

That finding, though, also suggests there is plenty of room for expectations to be upset if the energy price shock intensifies. The pass-through effects would be fairly rapid. In a UK context, current oil and gas prices “are already enough to add around 1% to headline inflation in the coming months, while shortages of fertilisers could push food inflation higher later in the year”, reckons David Rees, the head of global economics at the fund manager Schroders.

In the circumstances, the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates was the only one possible. Policymakers are as clueless on the length of the war, and the cost of energy six weeks or six months from now, as stock market investors. The Bank’s messaging was inevitably of the fudged variety. On one hand, it stands “ready to act as necessary” on interest rates to control inflation. On the other, “markets are getting ahead of themselves in assuming rate rises”, said the governor, Andrew Bailey.

But one suspects we won’t have to wait too much longer to see central banks’ real analysis of the inflation risks. If oil stays at $100 for another month, higher interest rates will be the way to bet.