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Financial Experts’ 2025 Predictions for Inflation Under Trump

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Financial Experts’ 2025 Predictions for Inflation Under Trump
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Every President has a major impact on inflation. Policies around government spending, taxation, and trade relations influence the prices of goods and services. President-elect Donald Trump will return to the White House in January, and it’s good to know how his next term can impact prices.

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Here’s what financial experts have to say about what to expect under Trump’s administration.

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Although Trump’s second term hasn’t started yet, the president-elect has hinted at several changes he intends to make. Arron Bennett, founder and CEO at Bennett Financials, outlines the key policies that consumers should keep in mind.

“Key Trump policies that could influence inflation include his tax policies and trade strategies. By keeping or expanding the TCJA [Tax Cuts and Jobs Act], Trump could continue to support both businesses and middle-class families by ensuring they retain more of their income, reducing inflationary pressure. If more people have discretionary spending power, the broader economy could stabilize, potentially hedging against inflation.”

Bennett also suggests keeping an eye on tariffs.

“However, tariffs play a dual role. While they may incentivize bringing jobs back to the U.S. and support American manufacturing, they could also raise costs for goods, increasing inflation. The potential increase in domestic production costs due to tariffs might translate into higher consumer prices, particularly if China’s prices rise in response to U.S. tariffs.”

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The upcoming Department of Government Efficiency aims to remove unnecessary parts of the government, similar to how Elon Musk laid off more than 80% of Twitter employees when he took over. Bennett views the new program as a hedge against inflation.

“The Department of Government Efficiency could also play a role by cutting bureaucratic red tape, potentially reducing government spending and improving overall fiscal health, which could help counter inflationary pressures. Trump’s approach seems to hedge his bets–while policies like tariffs could increase costs, tax cuts and government efficiency measures could help balance these effects.”

Bennett mentioned that tariffs can lead to higher inflation, but Trump has some hedges in place to minimize inflation’s growth rate. Financial experts, like Ben Johnston, agree that Trump’s policies will increase inflation in the short run.

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UST Finance Students Compete on Global Stage in CFA Research Challenge

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UST Finance Students Compete on Global Stage in CFA Research Challenge

A select team of students from the University of St. Thomas’ Cameron School of Business has officially launched its bid for the FY 2025–2026 Texas Region CFA (Certified Financial Analyst) Institute Research Challenge, a prestigious competition often referred to as the “Investment Olympics” for university students. 

The CFA Institute Research Challenge is an annual competition that provides university students with hands-on mentoring and intensive training in financial analysis. The competition tests students’ analytical, valuation, report writing and presentation skills, challenging them to take on the role of real-world research analysts. The 2025–2026 cycle involves more than 6,000 students from more than1,000 universities worldwide. 

Representing UST, the team is comprised of Team Captain Chih Jung Ting, MSF; Vice-Captain Daria Kostyukova, BBA/MSF; Reginald Paolo Laudato, BBA/MSF; Simon Wong, BBA in Finance; and Anjali Sebastian, BBA in Finance. 

Anjali Sebastian

The team of five students has been selected to conduct an exhaustive equity analysis of a target company, competing against top-tier universities from around the Texas area. 

“Taking part in the CFA Research Challenge has been the most intense and rewarding experience of my academic career,” said Chih Jung Ting, team captain. “We aren’t just reading case studies anymore—we are digging into real balance sheets, forecasting real economic shifts, and learning how to defend our ideas under pressure. It’s given us a true taste of what it means to be an analyst.” 

The team is supported by Department Chair of Economics and Finance Dr. Joe Ueng, CFA, and faculty advisor Dr. Dan Hu. Assisting the team was industry mentor Matt Caire, CFA, CFP®, CMT from Vaughan Nelson, a seasoned professional who provides guidance on the intricacies of equity research. 

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“Our participation in the CFA Research Challenge is a testament to the caliber of our students and the strength of our curriculum,” said Dr. Ueng. “By applying advanced financial theory to a live market scenario, our students demonstrate that they are not just learners, but emerging professionals ready to contribute to the global financial community. We are incredibly proud of their dedication to academic excellence.” 

Dr. Sidika Gülfem Bayram, the Cullen Foundation Endowed Chair of Finance and UST associate professor of Finance said participating in the CFA Research Challenge this year creates a pivotal moment for UST students.  

“I’m impressed to see our students apply their curriculum knowledge to meet the depth and vast nature of the analysis required in such a fierce competition,” Dr. Bayram said. “I’m so proud of the effort the students put into the challenge.” 

This year, the team has been tasked with analyzing Green Brick Partners, a publicly traded company in the consumer cyclical sector. During the past several months, the students have dedicated more than 150 hours to conducting a deep-dive analysis of the company’s business model and industry position, interviewing company management and financial experts, building complex financial models to determine the stock’s intrinsic value, and compiling an “Initiation of Coverage” report with a buy, sell or hold recommendation. 

“Participating in the CFA Research Challenge allows our students to bridge the gap between classroom theory and the fast-paced world of investment management,” said Dr. Hu. “It demands a level of rigor and professional ethics that prepares them for the highest levels of the finance industry.” 

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The team will presented its findings and defended its recommendation before a panel of judges from leading investment firms at the CFA Society local final in late February. Winners of the local competition will advance to the subregional and regional rounds, with the goal of reaching the global finals in May 2026. 

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Town Finance Director To Step Down In April

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Town Finance Director To Step Down In April

Nantucket’s municipal finance director Brian Turbitt has announced his resignation and will leave his position with the town on April 21st.

“With mixed emotion, I have submitted my resignation from the position of Town of Nantucket Director of Municipal Finance, effective April 21, to pursue an opportunity off-island,” Turbitt wrote in a message to the Current. “I have thoroughly enjoyed working with Town Manager Libby Gibson and her administration during the past 12 years and am extremely proud of all we have accomplished as a team. My time on Nantucket has been the experience of a lifetime, and one for which I am truly grateful and will never forget.”

Turbitt told the Current that despite his resignation, he will still attend the Annual Town Meeting in his current role on May 4th. Turbitt often presents and defends many of the town’s budget requests during the meeting, which falls just weeks after his scheduled departure date.

As the town’s chief financial officer, Turbitt oversees the town’s budget, guiding the $170 million operation. Turbitt has been with the town since 2014, but his 12-year tenure will end next month.

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300 years of wars show they are ‘always disaster times’ for holders of government debt because of inflation and financial repression | Fortune

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300 years of wars show they are ‘always disaster times’ for holders of government debt because of inflation and financial repression | Fortune

Government bonds, especially Treasuries, have long been seen as a safe haven during recessions, geopolitical calamities, and other market-moving disasters that create uncertainty.

But after looking at 300 years of U.S. and U.K. history, the Center for Economic Policy Research found that wars and pandemic-scale emergencies have pummeled holders of debt.

“The historical evidence reveals a striking pattern: government bonds have repeatedly generated substantial real losses during these extreme episodes,” authors Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan wrote. “They have even underperformed equities and real estates which are traditionally regarded as risky assets.”

That’s because wars typically triggered large increases in government spending, averaging about 7% of GDP annually during the first four years, and tax hikes alone were rarely sufficient for financing needs, they added.

The finding comes as the U.S. is waging war on Iran while the national debt has exploded to $39 trillion. The Pentagon is seeking more than $200 billion in a budget request for the conflict, sources told the Washington Post.

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Across their dataset, the CEPR authors calculated that bondholders suffered average real losses of roughly 14% during the first four years of conflicts. The losses were so steep that they reduced the real value of government debt outstanding.

To add insult to injury, cumulative bond returns were more than 20% below the cumulative returns on stocks and real estate, the opposite of how those assets perform during financial crises or recessions.

“Whenever there is a major war, we observe a sharp decline in the bond performance — wars are always disaster times for bondholders,” they warned. “Similarly, the bondholders also suffered large losses during the ‘war on Covid-19.’”

Center for Economic Policy Research

A key factor in bond losses is inflation, according to CEPR, which said the cumulative rate averaged about 20% in the first four years of wars.

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In fact, during the current U.S.-Israel war on Iran, Treasuries and government debt from other countries have sold off sharply as surging oil prices have raised expectations for elevated inflation while budget deficits are also seen worsening. Since the war began three weeks ago, the U.S. 10-year yield has soared more than 40 basis points.

But profligate spending wasn’t the only way inflation weighed on bonds. The think tank said it was often the result of policy choices to reduce debt burdens without explicitly defaulting, such as by suspending gold standard commitments.

Another reason bonds perform so poorly during wars is so-called financial repression, or government policies that curb borrowing costs by influencing financial markets. That prevents bond yields from keeping pace with inflation.

For example, the Federal Reserve implemented yield-curve control, capped Treasury rates, and launched massive bond buying during World War II.

CEPR’s findings have particular relevance for U.S. debt as Treasuries continue to form the foundation of the global financial system with the dollar serving as the world’s reserve currency.

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That status has allowed the U.S. to borrow more cheaply than investors would otherwise allow. Meanwhile, the interest on U.S. debt is now the fastest-growing budget item and is already at $1 trillion a year. CEPR said its report presents governments with an important tradeoff.

“Protecting taxpayers from large spending shocks may require shifting part of the burden onto bondholders through inflation or financial repression,” it said. “Economic theory suggests that such policies may be optimal when taxation is highly distortionary. However, they also reduce the safety of government debt and may raise borrowing costs over time if investors anticipate these risks.”

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