Finance
Expert's rogue 2026 RBA interest rates prediction: 'Pay the price'
Two experts believe Aussie homeowners won’t get any mortgage relief until at least 2026. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold interest rates at the 13-year high of 4.35 per cent following its two-day September meeting.
Not a single expert from Finder’s research was tipping a cut from this meeting and the overwhelming majority (15) believe the first round of cuts will happen in February 2025. But Richard Holden, Professor of Economics at UNSW Business School, told Yahoo Finance homeowners should expect to hold their breath longer — much longer.
“We’re not going to solve this inflation problem by cutting rates. We’re going to make it worse,” he said.
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He and Malcolm Wood, Ord Minnett’s head of institutional research, reckon the first rate cut won’t come until sometime in 2026.
The RBA has been insistent that inflation has to come into the 2-3 per cent range before rates should be cut.
Governor Michele Bullock said a lot of work needs to be done to get inflation down and all but ruled out a rate cut this year.
Will you be forced to sell your home if the RBA doesn’t cut rates this year? Email stew.perrie@yahooinc.com
At the post-meeting press conference, Bullock said the bank isn’t convinced inflation is moving in the direction it needs for a cut.
“The board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target before any decisions are made about a reduction in interest rates, so we really need to see progress on underlying inflation coming back down toward the target,” she said.
Where is inflation at the moment?
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows inflation has fallen dramatically since the 2022 peak of 7.8 per cent.
On Wednesday, new figures revealed it dropped to its lowest point in nearly three years to just 2.7 per cent in the 12 months to August, which is down from 3.5 per cent in July.
But a big factor in that fall are the state and federal electricity subsidies handed out after July 1.
Holden said it’s “misleading” to focus on headline inflation because it can be swayed by things like government handouts.
He said the number to keep your eyes on is trimmed inflation, which is also called core inflation or underlying inflation.
This “smooths out the impact of temporary or irregular price changes” like from subsidies and excludes the top and bottom 15 per cent of price changes to give a more accurate reflection of what’s going on in Australia’s economy. The economist said that number is much harder to move.
“Underlying inflation is a long game,” he told Yahoo Finance.
The RBA also noted that trimmed inflation has been particularly sticky over the past few months.
“Our current forecasts do not see inflation returning sustainably to target until 2026,” it said in its September meeting notes.
“In year-ended terms, underlying inflation has been above the midpoint of the target for 11 consecutive quarters and has fallen very little over the past year.”
Trimmed inflation came in at 3.4 per cent for August, which is still a considerable drop from the 3.8 per cent in July.
Economist and Yahoo Finance contributor Stephen Koukoulas has argued the RBA should feel comfortable cutting interest rates soon based on headline inflation.
“The RBA is refusing to cut interest rates because it is guessing that the step lower in inflation in August will be temporary, a call that is based on faith not facts,” he wrote.
“In the end, the markets embraced the low inflation result and yet again discounted the RBA view of the economy by pricing in a better than even chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut before the end of 2024 and a total of 125 basis points of interest rate cuts by the end of 2025.”
But what about other countries cutting their interest rates?
The US Federal Reserve announced last week it was finally reducing its interest rates from a 23-year high.
In a near-unanimous decision, the rate was slashed by 0.5 percentage points to a range of 4.75 to 5 per cent.
It was the first rate cut since 2020 and experts are predicting there will be two more rate cuts by Christmas, four more cuts in 2025 and twice again in 2026.
Inflation peaked in the US in June 2022 at 9.1 per cent and is now at 2.5 per cent.
The US’s move brought it in line with other major nations including the European Union, the UK, Canada, New Zealand, Denmark, Switzerland, China, and many others.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said waiting longer to reduce the federal funds rate compared to other nations “really paid dividends” as it allowed policymakers to get more comfortable about the downward path of inflation.
Holden said Australia will likely have to follow a similar path.
“It’s a real shame that we didn’t do what the US and the UK and Canada and Europe and New Zealand did, which was take our medicine early on, raise rates more aggressively, deal with the problem, not be so lavish with government spending,” he explained to Yahoo Finance.
“You can see the fruits of that… look at America… that’s the story of what we should have done, and we haven’t done it, and we’re all paying the price for it.”
When do the Big Four banks think interest rates will drop?
Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to cut rates in December 2024. It thinks there will be five 0.25 per cent cuts by the end of 2025, taking the cash rate to 3.10 per cent.
Westpac thinks there will be a cut in February 2025, with four 0.25 per cent cuts in total to bring the cash rate down to 3.35 per cent.
NAB thinks it will be in May 2025, although it says February is possible, with five 0.25 per cent cuts down to 3.10 per cent.
ANZ has forecast a February 2025 cut, with three cuts in total to bring the cash rate down to 3.60 per cent.
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Finance
Household savings, income and finances in Spain: how did they fare in 2025 and what can we expect for 2026?
In 2025, GDI grew above the rate of average annual inflation (2.7%) and the growth in the number of households (1.3% according to the LFS), which allowed for a recovery in purchasing power. In this context, real household income has grown by 4.5% since before the pandemic, highlighting that households have continued to gain purchasing power in real terms.
The strong financial position of households is reflected not only in the high savings rate but also in their financial accounts. In this regard, households’ financial wealth continued to increase in 2025: their financial assets amounted to 3.4 trillion euros at the end of the year, versus 3.1 trillion at the end of 2024. This increase of 292 billion euros is broken down into a net acquisition of financial assets amounting to 95 billion, higher than the 21.5-billion average in the period 2015-2019, when interest rates were very low, and a revaluation effect of 194 billion. When breaking down the net acquisition of assets, we note that households invested 42 billion euros in equities and investment funds, just under 9.6 billion less than in deposits, while they disposed of debt securities worth 6 billion following the fall in interest rates.
On the other hand, households continued to deleverage in 2025, and by the end of the year their financial liabilities stood at 46.9% of GDP, compared to 47.8% in 2024, the lowest level since the end of 1998. This decline reflects the fact that, in 2025, households took advantage of the interest rate drop to prudently incur debt: net new borrowing amounted to 35 billion euros, representing an increase of 3.8%, which is lower than the nominal GDP growth of 5.8% and the GDI growth of 5.3%.
As a result of the increase in financial assets and the decrease in liabilities as a percentage of GDP, the net financial wealth of households recorded a notable increase of 7.3 points compared to 2024, reaching 156.8% of GDP.
Finance
Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer touts ‘strong financial outlook’ in city’s budget proposal
FRESNO, Calif. (KFSN) — Mayor Jerry Dyer has unveiled his 2026- 2027 budget proposal at Fresno’s City Hall.
The overall budget total is $2.55 billion, with a majority of the funding going to public works, utilities, police and FAX.
The mayor also highlighted several investments, including a 10-year tree trimming cycle, the Homeless Assistance Response Team and an America 250 celebration.
Dyer says that despite some challenging circumstances, the City of Fresno’s long-term financial condition remains healthy.
“We’re pleased to say that based on increasing revenues and sound financial management, as well as a very healthy reserve, the city of Fresno has a strong financial outlook,” he said.
Dyer’s office says the budget is a comprehensive financial plan that reflects the city’s ongoing commitment to the “One Fresno” vision.
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Finance
Nature Is Water Infrastructure. It’s Time To Finance It That Way
Cape Town is experiencing severe drought the main dam at Theewaterskloof is only at 10% capacity, on April 03, 2018 in Cape Town, South Africa. Diminishing water supplies may lead to the taps being turned off for the four millions inhabitants of Cape Town on April 12 2018, known locally as Day Zero. Water will be restricted from 87 litres per day to 50 litres as temperatures reach 28 degrees later this week. Politicians are blaming each other and residents for the deepening crisis.
John Snelling
Back in 2018 Cape Town, South Africa came dangerously close to running out of water. A severe, multi-year drought, combined with population growth and rising demand, pushed the city toward what officials called “Day Zero” – the moment when municipal water supplies would fall so low that household taps would be shut off and residents would be forced to collect daily water rations from designated distribution sites.
The city responded with extraordinary urgency. Emergency water stations were prepared. Public campaigns urged residents to reduce water consumption to just 13 gallons per day (the amount used in a single 6-minute shower). Monitoring systems tracked household water use. The filling of swimming pools and the washing of cars were banned.
Cape Town is experiencing severe drought many public buildings and Shopping Malls have cut water supplies to reduce water usage, on April 03, 2018 in Cape Town, South Africa.
John Snelling
These efforts helped Cape Town narrowly avoid a catastrophe. But the warning was unmistakable.
Water security is not only an environmental issue. It’s an economic issue. It’s a public health issue. It’s a food security issue. And for communities around the world, it is becoming a basic test of climate resilience.
In Cape Town, the crisis was driven by a combination of pressures. The city depends heavily on reservoirs supplied by six major dams. By 2018 these reservoirs had fallen below 20% capacity after years of drought. Aging infrastructure added strain. So did the spread of invasive plants, which consumed enormous amounts of water before it could reach the municipal system.
This last point matters. When we think about water infrastructure, we usually think about pipes, reservoirs, dams, pumps, and treatment plants. Those systems are essential. But they are only part of the story. The landscapes that capture, filter, store, and release water are vital infrastructure, too.
The good news is that we know how to better prevent and prepare for these risks moving forward. The answer? Investing in common-sense, nature-based solutions that restore balance to the region’s ecosystem. These are not abstract environmental ideals. They are practical investments with measurable benefits. The hard part has always been paying for them.
Nature-based solutions remain dramatically underfunded. This is a central challenge to global conservation efforts today. Indeed, it’s not that we lack solutions. We lack financial systems capable of delivering those solutions at the speed and scale required.
But that is beginning to change.
Cape Town residents queue to refill water bottles at Newlands Brewery Spring Water Point on January 30, 2018 in Cape Town, South Africa. Diminishing water supplies may lead to the taps being turned off for the four millions inhabitants of Cape Town on April 16 2018, known locally as Day Zero. Water will be restricted from 87 litres per day to 50 litres as temperatures reach 28 degrees later this week.(Photo by Morgana Wingard/Getty Images)
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A New Model for Financing Nature
The Cape Water Performance-Based Bond, announced last month, is more than just a creative financing tool. It is a five-year, outcomes‑linked transaction designed to mobilize capital markets at scale in support of nature‑based solutions, bringing together public institutions, philanthropic support, conservation expertise, and private capital to deliver measurable environmental results.
The bond, listed on the Johannesburg Stock exchange valued at R2.5 billion (USD $150 million) brought together FirstRand Bank as issuer, Rand Merchant Bank as arranger and structurer, and a coalition of local and international investors and philanthropic funders. As part of the structuring, The Nature Conservancy (TNCs) South Africa Program receives R150 million (USD $8.8 million) for implementation. And its most important feature is also its most innovative: investor returns are linked directly to independently verified ecological outcomes.
That is a major step forward.
For years, sustainable finance has often relied on “use-of-proceeds” models. Capital is raised and directed toward projects expected to produce environmental benefits. Yes, those models have value. But the Cape Water bond goes further. Investors are not simply financing a project that promises environmental benefits. Their returns are tied to whether those benefits are actually delivered. In this case, the outcome is clear: restoring critical water source areas in South Africa’s Western Cape by removing invasive alien plants that reduce water yield, damage biodiversity, and increase wildfire risk.
Over the next few years, the restoration work supported through the Greater Cape Town Water Fund will focus on removal of invasive species such as Pine, Eucalyptus, and Australian acacias, which consume far more water than the Cape’s native vegetation. At the height of concern, invasive plants were estimated to consume nearly 150 million liters of water per day in the Greater Cape Town region alone. Put more plainly, that was approximately one-fifth of the entire city’s water usage during the crisis.
The work builds on efforts already underway via the Greater Cape Town Water Fund, which was formed by TNC and partners in response to Cape Town’s prolonged water crisis. Already these efforts have cleared tens of thousands of hectares of invasive, water hogging plants. The fund prioritizes science-driven, nature-based solutions that restore the watersheds feeding the city’s water supply. Here again, the outcomes are not assumed. They are measured. And they are verified. That kind of accountability matters. It builds trust. It strengthens rigor. And by systematically evaluating returns, it helps move conservation finance closer to mainstream capital markets.
A team from Likona Lethe Services – over 40 men and women strong – camp up on the mountain while they spend their days clearing the area of alien vegetation, in this case primarily pine trees. The Greater Cape Town Water Fund stimulates funding and implementation of catchment restoration efforts and, in the process, creates jobs and momentum to protect global biodiversity and build more resilient communities in the face of climate change. The Greater Cape Town Water Fund – a project of The Nature Conservancy – is cutting down thirsty non-indigenous trees – mostly pines – over the Cape Mountains to save water and restore indigenous fynbos. CREDIT: Samantha Reinders for The Washington Post via Getty Images. The Washington Post via Getty Images
The Warning of “Day Zero”
The Western Cape is a powerful place to prove this model.
Cape Town’s experience during the 2017-2018 drought showed the world what water insecurity looks like in real time. It also changed how many people think about infrastructure.
In the Western Cape, invasive alien plants have disrupted the natural function of key catchments. They consume large amounts of water, crowd out native vegetation, and weaken the ecological integrity of the region’s water source areas. Removing them is not just landscape restoration. It is water system restoration.
Analysis from the Greater Cape Town Water Fund indicates that clearing invasive plants across priority sub-watersheds could help return roughly 55 billion liters of water each year to the Western Cape Water Supply System – one-third of Cape Town’s annual municipal water needs.
That’s not a marginal environmental benefit. It represents one of the most cost‑effective nature‑based strategies available to strengthen long‑term water security, while also delivering biodiversity, wildfire‑risk, and economic benefits.
A Blueprint for Global Conservation Finance
The Cape Water bond helps make that case in a language markets understand.
Commercial finance provides scale. Philanthropic and outcomes-based support help absorb risk. Conservation organizations like TNC apply scientific and technical expertise to implement on-ground restoration, while independent verification ensures outcomes and integrity. Public-interest institutions keep the structure aligned with long-term community and ecosystem benefit.
Most of the invasive pine trees surrounding the immediate circumference of the Elandskloof Dam have already been cleared by the Greater Cape Town Water Fund teams. This dam is a sub-catchment for the Theewaterskloof Dam – the largest dam in the Western Cape Water Supply System with a capacity of 480 million cubic metres, about 41% of the water storage capacity available to Cape Town. TAs of October 2023, GCTWF teams have cleared more than 46,000 hectares of invasive trees. This recovers about 15.2 billion liters of water per year (42 million liters per day) back into the water catchment and keeps the rivers flowing. CREDIT: Samantha Reinders for The Washington Post via Getty Images. The Washington Post via Getty Images
Martin Potgieter of Rand Merchant Bank explained, “This is a R2.5 billion market signal that natural capital has entered mainstream finance — combining financial innovation with scientific rigor.”
That’s using different types of capital to unlock outcomes that no single funding source could achieve alone. It’s exactly what blended finance is supposed to do. And the model has global relevance.
Around the world, communities are searching for ways to close the gap between conservation need and available funding. Sovereign nature bonds and debt conversions helped unlock capital for ocean conservation in places like the Seychelles, Belize, Barbados, and Gabon. The Cape Water bond builds on that same spirit of innovation but applies it to watershed restoration through a performance-based capital markets instrument.
Nature-based solutions work. And the Cape Water Performance-Based Bond shows what is possible. Conservation can be tied to performance. Public institutions and private capital can work together. And ecological restoration, when structured well, can attract the kind of financial support needed to move from isolated pilot projects to real scale.
Nature has always been one of our most valuable assets. It is time our financial systems treated it that way.
___________________________________________
Author’s Note:
As a physician, I have spent much of my career studying human health. Increasingly, I have come to believe that understanding, and protecting, the health of the planet is inseparable from protecting our own.
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