Finance

Expert's rogue 2026 RBA interest rates prediction: 'Pay the price'

Published

2 years ago

September 28, 2024

Expert's rogue 2026 RBA interest rates prediction: 'Pay the price'

Economist Richard Holden believes the RBA won’t be cutting interest rates until at least 2026. (Source: UNSW/Getty)

Two experts believe Aussie homeowners won’t get any mortgage relief until at least 2026. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold interest rates at the 13-year high of 4.35 per cent following its two-day September meeting.

Not a single expert from Finder’s research was tipping a cut from this meeting and the overwhelming majority (15) believe the first round of cuts will happen in February 2025. But Richard Holden, Professor of Economics at UNSW Business School, told Yahoo Finance homeowners should expect to hold their breath longer — much longer.

“We’re not going to solve this inflation problem by cutting rates. We’re going to make it worse,” he said.

He and Malcolm Wood, Ord Minnett’s head of institutional research, reckon the first rate cut won’t come until sometime in 2026.

The RBA has been insistent that inflation has to come into the 2-3 per cent range before rates should be cut.

Governor Michele Bullock said a lot of work needs to be done to get inflation down and all but ruled out a rate cut this year.

Will you be forced to sell your home if the RBA doesn’t cut rates this year? Email stew.perrie@yahooinc.com

At the post-meeting press conference, Bullock said the bank isn’t convinced inflation is moving in the direction it needs for a cut.

“The board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target before any decisions are made about a reduction in interest rates, so we really need to see progress on underlying inflation coming back down toward the target,” she said.

Where is inflation at the moment?

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows inflation has fallen dramatically since the 2022 peak of 7.8 per cent.

On Wednesday, new figures revealed it dropped to its lowest point in nearly three years to just 2.7 per cent in the 12 months to August, which is down from 3.5 per cent in July.

But a big factor in that fall are the state and federal electricity subsidies handed out after July 1.

Holden said it’s “misleading” to focus on headline inflation because it can be swayed by things like government handouts.

He said the number to keep your eyes on is trimmed inflation, which is also called core inflation or underlying inflation.

This “smooths out the impact of temporary or irregular price changes” like from subsidies and excludes the top and bottom 15 per cent of price changes to give a more accurate reflection of what’s going on in Australia’s economy. The economist said that number is much harder to move.

“Underlying inflation is a long game,” he told Yahoo Finance.

The RBA also noted that trimmed inflation has been particularly sticky over the past few months.

“Our current forecasts do not see inflation returning sustainably to target until 2026,” it said in its September meeting notes.

“In year-ended terms, underlying inflation has been above the midpoint of the target for 11 consecutive quarters and has fallen very little over the past year.”

Trimmed inflation came in at 3.4 per cent for August, which is still a considerable drop from the 3.8 per cent in July.

Economist and Yahoo Finance contributor Stephen Koukoulas has argued the RBA should feel comfortable cutting interest rates soon based on headline inflation.

“The RBA is refusing to cut interest rates because it is guessing that the step lower in inflation in August will be temporary, a call that is based on faith not facts,” he wrote.

“In the end, the markets embraced the low inflation result and yet again discounted the RBA view of the economy by pricing in a better than even chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut before the end of 2024 and a total of 125 basis points of interest rate cuts by the end of 2025.”

But what about other countries cutting their interest rates?

The US Federal Reserve announced last week it was finally reducing its interest rates from a 23-year high.

In a near-unanimous decision, the rate was slashed by 0.5 percentage points to a range of 4.75 to 5 per cent.

It was the first rate cut since 2020 and experts are predicting there will be two more rate cuts by Christmas, four more cuts in 2025 and twice again in 2026.

Inflation peaked in the US in June 2022 at 9.1 per cent and is now at 2.5 per cent.

Graph showing when experts believe the first rate will come — Finder spoke to dozens of experts about when they think the RBA will cut interest rates. *(Source: Finder)*

The US’s move brought it in line with other major nations including the European Union, the UK, Canada, New Zealand, Denmark, Switzerland, China, and many others.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said waiting longer to reduce the federal funds rate compared to other nations “really paid dividends” as it allowed policymakers to get more comfortable about the downward path of inflation.

Holden said Australia will likely have to follow a similar path.

“It’s a real shame that we didn’t do what the US and the UK and Canada and Europe and New Zealand did, which was take our medicine early on, raise rates more aggressively, deal with the problem, not be so lavish with government spending,” he explained to Yahoo Finance.

“You can see the fruits of that… look at America… that’s the story of what we should have done, and we haven’t done it, and we’re all paying the price for it.”

When do the Big Four banks think interest rates will drop?

Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to cut rates in December 2024. It thinks there will be five 0.25 per cent cuts by the end of 2025, taking the cash rate to 3.10 per cent.

Westpac thinks there will be a cut in February 2025, with four 0.25 per cent cuts in total to bring the cash rate down to 3.35 per cent.

NAB thinks it will be in May 2025, although it says February is possible, with five 0.25 per cent cuts down to 3.10 per cent.

ANZ has forecast a February 2025 cut, with three cuts in total to bring the cash rate down to 3.60 per cent.

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Related Topics:headline inflation interest rates Reserve Bank of Australia Richard Holden

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Finance

How digital payments are reshaping a fast-growing digital banking market

Published

6 hours ago

June 26, 2026

Press Room

How digital payments are reshaping a fast-growing digital banking market

Digital payments are becoming an increasingly common part of everyday life in Uzbekistan, helping bring more consumers into the formal financial system and increasing demand for services beyond basic transactions.

According to a financial inclusion survey conducted by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan with support from the Asian Development Bank, 71.17% of respondents reported making or receiving at least one digital payment in 2025, compared with 39% in 2021.

The increase follows several years of policies aimed at expanding financial inclusion, encouraging electronic payments and introducing digital tools such as remote identification systems for banking customers.

Interviews conducted by Euronews on the sidelines of the Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF) suggest that the rapid adoption of digital payments is now beginning to influence wider parts of the financial sector, from lending and insurance to investment products and banking services for businesses.

Digital payments enter the mainstream

Industry executives point to a combination of demographic, technological and regulatory factors behind the growth of digital financial services.

Nikolay Seleznyov, co-founder of Uzum, a company active in e-commerce, digital payments and financial services, said the expansion is bringing more people into the banking system.

“More and more people are becoming bank customers. And this trend is irreversible.”

Oliver Hughes, chairman of TBC Uzbekistan, a digital bank operating through the TBC UZ and Payme applications, pointed to the country’s young population and widespread use of mobile technology as factors supporting the shift towards digital services.

The trend is also affecting established lenders. Dmitry Sapronov, deputy chairman of Ipoteka Bank, which became part of Hungary’s OTP Group in 2023, said customer demand for digital services has increased significantly in recent years, requiring banks to rethink how they deliver products and interact with clients.

Regulation and infrastructure

Executives said the growth of digital finance has been supported by both regulatory changes and investment in digital infrastructure.

The Central Bank and other institutions have introduced measures aimed at expanding financial inclusion and encouraging electronic payments, while digital identification systems have made it easier for consumers to access banking products remotely.

“The digital ID product was one of the biggest enablers here for all the players in the financial services industry,” Seleznyov said.

According to him, digital identification has reduced onboarding times from days to seconds, allowing financial institutions to verify customers remotely and expand access to services.

At the same time, Hughes argued that regulation remains a critical part of the sector’s development as more financial activity moves online.

“Regulation is always important because it’s people’s money, it’s people’s data.”

Sapronov also pointed to the need for continued investment in banking technology, saying the pace of development is creating pressure on institutions to modernise their systems.

Beyond everyday payments

While digital transactions are becoming more widespread, executives said many financial products remain at an earlier stage of development.

Sapronov said the transformation extends beyond individual products, affecting how banks operate, deliver services and interact with customers.

“This transformation touched all aspects of the banking operation, products, process, digitalisation, branch network, almost everything.”

His comments reflect a broader shift within the sector as banks adapt to customers who increasingly expect services to be available through digital channels.

Hughes highlighted insurance, investment products and services for micro, small and medium-sized businesses as areas where adoption remains relatively limited.

“The level of penetration of banking services is still fairly low.”

He also argued that retail investment products available through mobile applications are only beginning to emerge in Uzbekistan.

Areas that still need development

Despite the rapid growth in digital payments, executives identified several areas where further development is still needed.

Seleznyov also pointed to the importance of maintaining both digital and physical infrastructure, including payment terminals and cash access points, as consumers continue to move between cash and digital transactions.

Sapronov described technology as one of the sector’s main challenges, arguing that demand for digital services is growing faster than some parts of the industry’s infrastructure.

“The challenges are related to tech because the country is developing so fast, and in terms of technology, the banking sector is quite underdeveloped.”

Finance

Anne Arundel County Launches New Finance and Procurement Platform

Published

16 hours ago

June 25, 2026

Press Room

Anne Arundel County Launches New Finance and Procurement Platform

Anne Arundel County is preparing to launch a new finance and e-procurement system to modernize county operations and improve how businesses interact with local government.

The new platform, called Harbor, is scheduled to go live in July and will replace the County’s legacy procurement system with a centralized cloud-based platform built on Oracle Fusion Cloud.

County officials say the new system is designed to streamline procurement and financial processes while making it easier for both existing and prospective vendors to do business with the County.

From the press release:

“Harbor is a much-needed upgrade that will streamline services for our county agencies and those who do business with the county,” said Anne Arundel County Chief Administrative Officer Christine Anderson.

The platform will serve as a single portal for supplier registration, bid opportunities, invoicing, payment tracking, and contract management, consolidating what had previously been spread across multiple systems. County leaders say the transition is part of a broader effort to modernize operations, improve efficiency, and lower barriers for businesses seeking to compete for county contracts.

For counties, procurement modernization remains an important operational priority as local governments look to improve transparency, strengthen vendor engagement, and simplify access for businesses of all sizes. Anne Arundel County has encouraged interested suppliers to review training materials and registration information ahead of the July launch.

Finance

Quadient Recognized as a Leader in the 2026 SPARK Matrix for Accounts Receivable Applications

Published

1 day ago

June 25, 2026

Press Room

QUADIENT

Quadient demonstrates continued innovation in AI-driven invoice-to-cash automation and unified finance operations

Paris

Quadient (Euronext Paris: QDT), a global automation platform powering secure and sustainable business connections, announced today it has been recognized for the fifth consecutive year as a Leader in the 2026 SPARK Matrix™ for Accounts Receivable Applications by technology analyst and advisory firm QKS Group. Quadient strengthened its position in the report year-over-year, with a notable improvement in Technology Excellence, reflecting continued innovation in its AI-driven invoice-to-cash solution.

According to QKS Group, Quadient’s leadership position highlights its evolution into a comprehensive, AI-powered platform that delivers strong predictive accuracy and straight-through processing. The analyst firm also emphasized the capability of Quadient’s solutions to unify accounts receivable (AR) and accounts payable (AP), offering finance leaders greater visibility and insights into their business finances to make faster, better decisions on working capital management.

Earlier this month, Quadient announced the release of its new cash dashboard capability for AR and AP that allows finance teams to bring together traditionally siloed data in a single view. An AI assistant summarizes key metrics and provides analysis that helps finance leaders accelerate cash on hand, improve forecasting, reduce risk and uncover opportunities to optimize working capital.

“Quadient has established a strong position in the 2026 Accounts Receivable Automation market through its focus on intelligent automation, cash flow optimization and integrated financial operations,” said Sanjeevi C R, associate vice president, Enterprise Research at QKS Group. “The platform’s evolution from predictive analytics to AI-driven autonomous collections execution represents a meaningful step forward in reducing manual effort across the invoice-to-cash cycle. What differentiates Quadient is its ability to combine collections management, cash application, and payment processing with a unified accounts receivable and accounts payable ecosystem, providing finance leaders with a more holistic view of working capital performance. By enabling greater automation, enhanced cash flow visibility, and more efficient receivables operations, Quadient continues to deliver measurable value for organizations seeking to modernize their financial processes and improve liquidity management.”

QKS Group highlighted the following key strengths for Quadient AR: