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Breakingviews – Japan Post’s deal will test interest rate optimism

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Breakingviews – Japan Post’s deal will test interest rate optimism

HONG KONG, Feb 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) – The $12 billion triple preliminary public providing of the Japan Publish Group by the federal government in 2015 was finished within the identify of financial effectivity. It has paid off much less nicely for buyers. After a short rally, the collective market worth of the three firms it includes has declined from a peak of 18 trillion yen to under 10 trillion yen, per Datastream. Regardless of excessive dividend payouts, whole returns have underperformed the Topix benchmark and the Refinitiv Japanese financial institution index by double digits.

There’s extra rationalisation work to do. The Ministry of Finance holds over a 3rd of Japan Publish Holdings (6178.T), which in flip retains massive stakes within the banking and insurance coverage items – though it has trimmed the latter to under 50%. The financial institution place is now being partly unwound to satisfy new minimal tradeable share guidelines. Japan Publish Holdings plans to unload shares value as much as $9.3 billion, Reuters reported, lowering its stake to under 65%. Buyers will solely be supplied a small low cost of as much as 4% as a result of Japan Publish Financial institution (7182.T) could purchase again a few of its personal shares, and there’s a chance that main indexes will improve allotments, which might buoy costs.

It’s an enormous deal in a rickety market however the prospect of rate of interest normalisation might see extra funding into home banks – Japan Publish Financial institution shares have rallied this yr alongside native friends. This deal will take a look at how a lot nascent optimism there may be about that prospect. (By Pete Sweeney)

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Hollywood is ‘failing women in finance’

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Hollywood is ‘failing women in finance’

In The Wolf of Wall Street Leonardo DiCaprio’s character rants about all the “hookers” he has encountered while in The Big Short Margot Robbie relaxes in a bubble bath to keep the audience captivated as she explains mortgage-backed bonds.

These “deeply disappointing” portrayals of women are symptomatic of the stereotypical way in which films and TV shows portray the world of finance, according to a study by King’s Business School.

The Alpha Portrayals report found that women were commonly addressed as “honey” or “sweetheart” and subject to derogatory comments about their appearance or lack of financial know-how. They were relegated to supporting roles as wives, mistresses or assistants amid overwhelmingly male-centric narratives in which the majority (83 per cent) of discriminatory behaviour was conducted by

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DeepSeek sell-off reminds investors of the biggest earnings story holding up the stock market

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DeepSeek sell-off reminds investors of the biggest earnings story holding up the stock market

Monday’s swift sell-off in the markets serves as a reminder for not only what’s been the driving force of the bull market thus far, but also what investors have been expecting to come in 2025. It’s all about big tech earnings.

New developments from Chinese artificial intelligence DeepSeek sparked the rout as investor concerns over brewing competition in the AI space for Nvidia (NVDA) and other big tech names prompted pause in the US AI trade.

Nvidia stock dropped more than than 11%. Meanwhile fellow “Magnificent Seven” members Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL,GOOG), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) were all off 2% or more in early trading. Broadcom (AVGO), another large player in the AI space, was down more than 12%.

“When expectations are high, one skeptical headline can knock the market off its axis,” Ritholtz Wealth Management chief investment strategist Callie Cox wrote in a note on Monday. “That’s exactly what we’re seeing today.”

A slowdown in Big tech’s rapid earnings growth has been a risk to the market that strategists have been talking about for more than a year. With with index valuations near multi-decade highs and the 10 largest stocks comprising nearly 40% of the S&P 500, strategists have argued the rapid rally in stocks is increasingly on thin ice.

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But unlike other risks like higher interest rates or sticky inflation, there hasn’t been a clear story for why the exceptional Big Tech earnings growth story would collapse. For now, this weekend’s DeepSeek AI model launch appears to be a tangible reason for investors to question whether the high earnings expectations will truly follow through.

In 2024, Magnificent Seven earnings outperformed the rest of the S&P 500 index by 30 percentage points, per research from Goldman Sachs. And while that margin is expected to slow in the year ahead, causing some to call for a broadening out of stock market returns, big tech earnings growth remains a key pillar of the bull market thesis.

The “Magnificent Seven” stocks are expected to grow earnings by 21.7% in the fourth quarter compared to the 9.7% earnings growth projected for the other 493 tech stocks. The year-over-year growth rate for the “Magnificent Seven” is expected to slow in the first quarter, before accelerating once more to year-over-year earnings growth of more than 24% in the third quarter.

As Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays, pointed out in his 2025 outlook, given the large earnings growth expected for Big Tech throughout the year, the group is “likely to remain as critical of an EPS growth driver for the S&P 500 as the group was [in 2024].”

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Southeast Asia's frustration with the state of climate finance

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Southeast Asia's frustration with the state of climate finance

The 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP29, ended in much frustration in Azerbaijan last year. The agreement on the new climate finance goal was a disappointment to Southeast Asia, which urgently needs more funding to tackle and adapt to climate change.

At the summit, developed countries agreed to increase their climate finance provision to developing countries from US$100 billion to US$300 billion annually by 2035. Contributions from governments and multilateral development banks are expected to meet this target. Given the broader goal to raise US$1.1 to US$1.3 trillion annually in climate finance, this means developing countries would need to raise up to US$1 trillion annually from the private sector and other sources by 2035. These finance provisions will help to fund climate mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere, such as through increased uptakes of renewable energy) and climate adaptation projects (adjusting to the consequences climate change) in developing countries.

Global South representatives have expressed anger and disappointment with the negotiation process and with the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) because, in their view, climate finance should primarily consist of grants and, to a lesser extent, low-interest loans that minimise financial burdens on governments in developing countries. The NCQG, however, suggests that developing countries will have to rely on for-profit private investments to satisfy most of their climate finance needs, especially as discussions of new finance sources, such as from levies on fossil fuels and air travel, remain vague.  Moreover, if inflation is taken into account, the pledged US$300 billion climate finance target will lose 20 per cent of its value by 2035.

Southeast Asia has good reasons to be frustrated with the climate finance agreement at Baku. According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Southeast Asia needs US$210 billion — around 5 per cent of the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) — annually until 2030 to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, and it is unlikely that public finances alone can reach this target. Southeast Asia’s adaptation needs call for investments in multiple areas, such as in agriculture, water management, mangrove protection, and Early Warning Systems to identify climate-related risks and hazards. Estimated total climate adaptation cost, expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in each Southeast Asian country, ranges from 0.1 per cent (for Singapore) to 2.2 per cent (for Cambodia).

To protect its standard of living, Southeast Asia should step up its efforts on climate action and look for additional alternative sources of climate finance.

Southeast Asia’s energy demand growth is also not being evenly matched by investments in renewable energy. A quarter of the growing global energy demand over the next decade is estimated to come from Southeast Asia. However, according to the International Energy Agency, renewable energy investment in Southeast Asia accounts for only 2 per cent of the global total. Although public and private finance play crucial roles in accelerating energy transition in the region, concessional finance of US$12 billion by the early 2030s is needed.

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Given the inadequacy of the NCQG, Southeast Asia should continue to look beyond UN climate conferences for climate finance. Even if greater climate finance commitments had been reached at COP29, it would have nevertheless been a Pyrrhic victory. As history demonstrates, countries tend to fall short of their promises. In 2009, developed countries pledged to provide US$100 billion in climate finance per year by 2020, but their contributions only surpassed this target for the first time in 2022.

In Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Vietnam have joined the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), a multilateral climate finance initiative supported by the Group of 7 (G7) that encourages developing countries to transition away from coal-fired power.

Large financing gaps remain, however. Countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam have joined the Japan-led Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) initiative, which aims to mobilise up to US$8 billion until 2030 to support decarbonisation in Asia, but a third of AZEC projects involve natural gas and fossil-fuel technologies. Asean and the ADB have also established the Asean Catalytic Green Finance Facility (ACGF) to provide loans for green infrastructural investments in the region. Another noteworthy initiative is Singapore’s Financing Asia’s Transition Partnership (FAST-P) which utilises blended finance to advance energy transition in Asia.

It is uncertain whether the options listed above will suffice. Southeast Asia’s battle against climate change is a high-stakes race against time. According to a study by Swiss Re in 2021, the GDP of Asean countries could, in the worst-case scenario, fall by 37.4 per cent by 2048 if the average global temperature rises up to 3.2 degree Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period.

To protect its standard of living, Southeast Asia should step up its efforts on climate action and look for additional alternative sources of climate finance. This should include (but should not be limited to) debt relief, debt-for-nature swap (writing off countries’ debt in return for tangible outcomes in climate/nature projects), green bonds, and support for the new UN global tax convention that aims to raise tax revenues to support sustainable development in the Global South. Such efforts are necessary but might not be sufficient: the financing gap is huge, and the time is short.

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Prapimphan Chiengkul is an Associate Fellow with the Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.

This article was first published in Fulcrum, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s blogsite. 

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