UK inflation held at 3% in the year to February, before the start of the conflict in the Middle East, which has sent energy costs soaring and led to concerns of a resurgence in pricing pressures.

The latest consumer price index (CPI) reading from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), released on Wednesday, was in line with consensus expectations. This came after inflation fell to 3% in January from 3.4% in December.

The ONS said that clothing made the largest upward contribution to the monthly change in inflation in February, while motor fuels was the biggest downward contributor.

Read more: Multiple Bank of England interest rate rises expected after energy price surge

The data covered the period before the start of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran on 28 February. The conflict has disrupted oil (BZ=F, CL=F) and gas (NG=F) supply, sending prices soaring, with concerns that a prolonged energy price shock could push inflation back up.

Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said: “The largest upwards driver was the price of clothing, which rose this month but fell a year ago.”

“This was offset by falls in petrol costs, with prices collected before the start of the conflict in the Middle East and subsequent rise in crude oil prices.”

The Bank of England (BoE) warned last week that inflation will be higher in the “near term” due to the shock from higher energy prices, as it announced it had kept interest rates on hold at 3.75%.

Commenting on February’s inflation figures, chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “In an uncertain world we have the right economic plan, taking a responsive and responsible approach to supporting working people in the national interest.”

“We’re taking £150 off energy bills and providing targeted support for those facing higher heating oil costs. We’re also acting to protect people from unfair price rises if they occur, bring down food prices at the till, and cut red tape to boost long-term energy security — building a stronger, more secure economy.”

Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “The economy entered the energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East with CPI inflation stuck at 3.0%.”

“And based on our current working assumptions about oil and gas prices, we now think CPI inflation could rise to a peak of about 4.6% in Q4.”

“With the energy price shock likely to extinguish growth and add to the already elevated unemployment rate, in our baseline scenario we still think an extended interest rate pause is more likely than interest rate hikes,” she said.

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Brent crude (BZ=F) and West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures contracts marched higher on Tuesday morning, having plummeted more than 10% at one point in Monday’s trading session. Questions continue to swirl around the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the conflict between Iran and the US and Israel.

Brent crude (BZ=F) gained 1.7% after the opening bell in London, to around the $97.50 per barrel mark. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) also rose 1.7% to $89.55 per barrel.

The moves come amid conflicting reports about talks between Iran and the US to end fighting. On Monday, president Donald Trump delayed strikes on Iranian power plants, having given Iran a deadline to restore trade through the Strait of Hormuz, saying Washington had productive conversations with Tehran.

But Tehran has since denied that it has been in touch with US negotiators, accusing Washington of price manipulation.

On Sunday night, Trump and prime minister Keir Starmer held a 20-minute phone call about the situation.

“They agreed that reopening the Strait of Hormuz was essential to ensure stability in the global energy market,” a Downing Street spokesperson said.

On Saturday, Trump gave Iran a 48-hour deadline to reopen the Strait — a measure set to expire shortly before midnight UK time on Monday.

In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote: “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”

Yesterday, Iran’s defence council said in a statement that the “only way for non-hostile countries” to pass through Strait of Hormuz is “coordination with Iran”.