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What we learned about the CFP in Week 11: Mizzou’s ‘Playoff hunt’? One-bid ACC? Assume nothing

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What we learned about the CFP in Week 11: Mizzou’s ‘Playoff hunt’? One-bid ACC? Assume nothing

The 12-team College Football Playoff has made it challenging to pinpoint just how big the fall’s biggest games are. For decades, the result of a regular-season game could feel definitive. Even if it wasn’t quite so, it could be pretty darn close.

That’s not the case anymore.

After the number of unbeaten teams shrunk to four in Week 11, we’ve learned that using the phrase “If they win out” is fraught with peril and the SEC seems to be headed for a massive logjam.

Magnificent 7

After Missouri beat Oklahoma 30-23 in a bonkers game that included five touchdowns in the fourth quarter — four in the final 3:18 — Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz proclaimed his team still alive in the Playoff race.

“That’s right. I said it. Playoff hunt,” Drinkwitz said.

Really?

Well, put it this way: Mizzou is now one of seven SEC teams that could finish the regular season 10-2, along with — in alphabetical order — Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M. Those six all landed in the CFP selection committee’s top 16 last week.

Only two SEC games are remaining matching any of those seven teams. Next week, Georgia tries to bounce back from its second loss of the season against Tennessee in Athens. On Thanksgiving weekend, Texas goes to Texas A&M.

Georgia had a chance to vote Ole Miss off the island, but Rebels coach Lane Kiffin finally broke through with a top-five victory to remain very much alive. Now the Bulldogs, preseason No. 1 and the favorites to win the national championship, are in danger of missing out on a 12-team bracket.

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Unthinkable.

The Crimson Tide rolled past LSU 42-13 to unofficially, but undeniably, eliminate the Tigers from Playoff contention. Tennessee and the winner of Texas-Texas A&M control their paths to the SEC title game, which is better than the alternative, but control feels like an illusion this season.

As for Mizzou and Drinkwitz, nobody should apologize for going 7-2, especially a program that does not regularly churn out double-digit-victory seasons. The reality is Missouri, which was ranked 25th by the selection committee last week, clearly sits seventh in the SEC’s Playoff pecking order.

The Athletic’s projections model gives Missouri a 0.3 percent chance of making the Playoff. So, you’re saying there’s a chance?

SEC CFP and title odds

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Team CFP bid SEC title Record

78%

42%

8-1

75%

9%

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7-2

68%

10%

7-2

62%

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10%

8-2

39%

13

8-1

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12%

12

7-2

4%

4

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6-3

0.3%

0.3%

7-2

Hurricane warning

No. 4 Miami had been tempting fate and hoping for quarterback Cam Ward to pull it out of precarious situations for most of the last month and a half. Four times in the previous five games, the Hurricanes fell behind only to have Ward and their potent offense bail them out and keep them unbeaten.

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Ward ran out of second-half magic against Georgia Tech, and now the Canes’ path to the Playoff has narrowed. SMU, 13th in the committee’s initial rankings, had a productive off week. The Mustangs are now alone atop the ACC standings.

Miami’s loss was the 10th this season by an AP top-10 team against an unranked team. That means the rankings at the time of the games, which means Georgia Tech has two of those victories after starting the season by beating preseason No. 10 Florida State in Ireland. Yes, sometimes early-season upsets are not what they appear to be.

Still, that list includes Kentucky over Ole Mis, Arkansas over Tennessee and, of course, Northern Illinois over Notre Dame. It almost added Utah over No. 9 BYU later Saturday night.

It has been a fun season.

Thanks to Pitt’s loss to Virginia, Miami is still in control of its ACC championship hopes heading into an off week. The Canes conclude the season with games against Syracuse and Boston College — both very winnable. Then again, so was Georgia Tech.

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“We have a bye week with everything in front of us to play for,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said.

The Yellow Jackets ran for 271 yards and held the ball for nearly 35 minutes. Two failed fourth-down conversions by Miami in Georgia Tech territory were essentially the difference in a 28-23 loss.

The bigger issue for Miami is that the prospect of getting into the Playoff just by reaching the ACC Championship Game just went down. Look at all those SEC teams potentially sitting there with two losses. Then take a peek at the Big Ten, where the odds continue to rise that its four CFP contenders (Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State) all will win at least 10 regular-season games.

If the Hurricanes reach the ACC title game, they are likely to do so having beaten only one ranked team (Louisville).

That measurement can be a little deceiving and random. Is there that much difference between team No. 25 and team No. 30? Not really.

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Still, the ACC moved closer to being a one-bid league Saturday.

ACC CFP and title odds

Team CFP bid ACC title Record

70%

36%

9-1

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42%

26%

8-1

38%

36%

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7-2

1%

2%

6-3

GO DEEPER

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College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Indiana up to 92 percent chance to make field

2024 BYU = 2022 TCU

BYU’s unbeaten season appeared to be over when quarterback Jake Retzlaff was sacked near his goal line on a fourth down with less than two minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Cougars have dodged a few losses on the way 9-0, but no escape was greater than Saturday night’s against rival Utah.

A holding penalty on the Utes wiped out what likely would have been a decisive sack, and the Cougars took their second chance and drove to set up a game-winning field goal in the waning seconds. The 11-point halftime deficit was the largest BYU has overcome to win since 2002 against Utah State.

“We won this game. Someone else stole it from us,” Utah athletic director Mark Harlan told reporters. “This was not fair to our team. I’m disgusted by the professionalism of the officiating crew tonight.”

OK, then.

The Cougars remain alone in first in the Big 12, a mere game ahead of Colorado, which had its own come-from-behind victory on Saturday night.

Indiana already has locked up this season’s best turnaround, the perennial Big Ten doormat now in contention for a conference title after going 3-9 last season. BYU is not quite that, but the Cougars went 5-7 in their first season in the Big 12 last year and were picked to finish near the bottom of the conference again.

Sound familiar?

TCU took a similar path to the Playoff in 2022. These Cougars are no Hypnotoads, but they are most definitely a vibes-based operation.

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Big 12 spoiler

Kansas has had one of the most disappointing years in the country, starting the season ranked and losing its first five FBS games, none by more than 11 points.

The Jayhawks now have won two of three, with only a two-point loss to Kansas State preventing a three-game winning streak. Quarterback Jalon Daniels and company pretty much eliminated Iowa State from the CFP race with a 45-36 victory Saturday.

Kansas can continue to play spoiler for the next two weeks. The Jayhawks visit BYU next week and host Colorado after that.

Keeping BYU out of the Big 12 Championship Game at this point is going to take at least two losses by the Cougars. Avoiding that is not going to be as easy as it might have looked a few weeks ago.

BYU goes to Arizona State in two weeks. As good as the turnaround in Provo has been, Sun Devils coach Kenny Dillingham’s has been even better in Tempe. Arizona State (7-2, 4-2) is also still in contention for a spot in the Big 12 title game.

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And BYU closes its regular season at home against Houston, which has won three of its last four.

Big 12 CFP and title odds

Team CFP bid Big 12 title Record

59%

32%

9-0

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41%

42%

7-2

14%

11%

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7-2

8%

7%

7-2

3%

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3%

7-2

Tested Hoosiers

It took 10 games, but finally somebody made Indiana work deep into the fourth quarter.

Indiana is 10-0 for the first time after beating defending national champion Michigan 20-15 in what was by far the Hoosiers’ worst offensive game of the season.

“I’m glad we won,” coach Curt Cignetti said. “I don’t like the way we played.”

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Considering Indiana improved to 11-62 all-time against Michigan, I’m pretty confident that sentence never had been uttered by a Hoosiers coach after beating the Wolverines.

Indiana gets a week off before playing at Ohio State. It would seem that the Hoosiers have built up enough credit to sustain a loss to the Buckeyes and get into the Playoff, but the strength of schedule metric is still hanging around Indiana like an anchor. The Wolverines are now 5-5.

Big Ten CFP and title odds

Team CFP bid B1G title Record

99%

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63%

10-0

99%

20%

8-1

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95%

8%

8-1

92%

9%

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10-0

(Photo: Ed Zurga / Getty Images)

Culture

Book Review: ‘Selling Opportunity,’ by Mary Lisa Gavenas

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Book Review: ‘Selling Opportunity,’ by Mary Lisa Gavenas

SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay, by Mary Lisa Gavenas


Mary Kay, the cosmetics company whose multilevel marketing included sales parties and whose biggest earners were awarded pink Cadillacs, was really in the business of selling second chances. Or, at least, that’s what Mary Lisa Gavenas argues in “Selling Opportunity,” a dual biography of the brand and the woman behind it.

Mary Kathlyn Wagner, who would become Mary Kay Ash, “the most famous saleswoman in the world” and “maybe the most famous ever,” in Gavenas’s extravagant words, was born in 1918 to a poor family and raised mostly in Houston. Although a good student, she eloped at 16 with a slightly older boy. The young couple had two babies in quick succession.

Mary Kay’s creation was a combination of timing and good luck. Door-to-door sales was a thriving industry — but, traditionally, a man’s world: Lugging heavy samples was not considered feminine, and entering the homes of strangers, unsafe. But things began to change during the Great Depression, Gavenas suggests, thanks to a convergence of factors — financial pressures and the rise of the aspirational prosperity gospel espoused by Dale Carnegie’s self-help manuals.

At the same time, female-run beauty lines like Annie Turnbo Malone’s Poro and Madam C.J. Walker’s were finding great success in Black communities. And, coincidentally or otherwise, the California Perfume Company changed its name to Avon Products in 1939.

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Ash began by selling books door to door, moving on to Stanley Home Products in the 1940s. She was talented, but direct sales was a rough gig. Every party to show off wares was supposed to beget two more bookings; these led to sales that resulted in new recruits. But there was no real security or stability: no salary, no medical benefits, no vacations. “Stop selling and you would end up right back where you started. Or worse,” the author writes.

Gavenas, a onetime beauty editor who wrote “Color Stories,” takes her time unspooling Mary Kay’s tale, with a great deal of evident research. We learn about direct sales, women’s rights and Texas history.

But, be warned: Readers must really enjoy both this woman and this world to take pleasure in “Selling Opportunity.” Mary Kay the person keeps marrying, getting divorced or widowed and working her way through various sales jobs (it’s hard to keep track of the myriad companies and last names). Gavenas seems to leave no detail out. Thus, the 1963 founding of the eponymous beauty company doesn’t come until almost 200 pages in.

Beauty by Mary Kay included a Cleansing Cream, a Magic Masque and a Nite Cream (which containined ammoniated mercury, later banned by the F.D.A.). The full line of products — which was how Mary Kay strongly encouraged customers to buy them — ran to a steep $175 in today’s money. (To fail to acquire the whole set, Ash said, was “like giving you my recipe for chocolate cake but leaving out an important ingredient.”)

Potential clients attended gatherings at acquaintances’ homes — no undignified doorbell-ringing here — where they received a mini facial, then an application of cosmetics like foundation, lip color and cream rouge — and a wig. The company made $198,514 in sales its first year.

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Although Ash may have seemed a pioneer, in many ways Mary Kay was a traditionalist company, whose philosophy was “God first, family second, career third.” Saleswomen, official literature dictated, were working to provide themselves with treats rather than necessities so as not to threaten their breadwinner husbands.

And yet, they were also encouraged to sell sell sell. Golden Goblet pendants were awarded for major orders. After the company started using custom pink Peterbilt trucks for shipping, it began commissioning those Cadillacs for top consultants. (Mary Kay preferred gifts to cash bonuses, lest women save the money to spend on practical things rather than the licensed frivolities.) The Cadillacs, always driven on company leases, would become industry legend and part of American pop culture lore. “Never to be run-down, repainted or resold, the cars would double as shining pink advertisements for her selling opportunity,” Gavenas writes.

The woman herself was iconic, too. While Ash was a product of the Depression, she was also undeniably over-the-top. She wore white suits with leopard trim, lived in a custom Frank L. Meier house and brought her poodle to the office.

Mary Kay went public in 1968, making her the first woman to chair a company on the New York Stock Exchange. By the 1990s, the Mary Kay headquarters near Dallas was almost 600,000 square feet. They commissioned a hagiographic company biopic; there was a Mary Kay consultant Barbie; they were making $1 billion in wholesale. When she died, in 2001, Ash was worth $98 million.

And yet, Gavenas cites that at the company’s height, in 1992, sales reps made on average just $2,400 per year.

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Instead of so much time in the pink fantasia of Mary Kay, it would have been nice for a few detours showing how infrequently the opportunities the company sold were truly realized.

SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay | By Mary Lisa Gavenas | Viking | 435 pp. | $35

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Historical Fiction Books That Illustrate the Bonds Between Mother and Child

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Historical Fiction Books That Illustrate the Bonds Between Mother and Child

We often think of the past as if it were another world — and in some ways, it is. The politics, religion and social customs of other eras can be vastly different from our own. But one thing historians and historical fiction writers alike often notice is the constancy of human emotion. The righteous anger of a customer complaining about a Mesopotamian copper merchant in 1750 B.C. feels familiar. Tributes to beloved household pets from ancient Romans and Egyptians make us smile. And we are captivated by stories of love, betrayal and sacrifice from Homer to Shakespeare and beyond.

In literature, letters, tablets and even on coins, we find overwhelming evidence that people in the past felt the same emotions we do. Love, hate, fear, grief, joy: These feelings were as much a part of their lives as they are of our own. And they resonate especially acutely in the bond between mother and child. Here are eight historical novels that explore the meaning of motherhood across the centuries.

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How ‘The Sheep Detectives’ Brought its Ovine Sleuths to Life

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How ‘The Sheep Detectives’ Brought its Ovine Sleuths to Life

Sometime in the 2000s, the producer Lindsay Doran asked her doctor for a book recommendation. “I’m reading that book everybody’s reading,” the doctor replied. “You know, the one about the shepherd who’s murdered and the sheep solve the crime.”

Doran had not heard of the book, “Three Bags Full,” a best-selling novel by a German graduate student (“No one’s reading it,” she recalls responding, inaccurately), but she was struck by what sounded like an irresistible elevator pitch. “Everything came together for me in that one sentence,” she said. “The fact that it was sheep rather than some other animal felt so resonant.”

Doran spent years trying to extricate the book from a complicated rights situation, and years more turning it into a movie. The result, opening Friday, is “The Sheep Detectives,” which features Nicholas Braun and Emma Thompson as humans, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Patrick Stewart and others giving voice to C.G.I. sheep stirred from their customary ruminations by the death of their shepherd, George (Hugh Jackman).

The film, rated PG, is an Agatha Christie-lite mystery with eccentric suspects, a comically bumbling cop (Braun) and a passel of ovine investigators. It’s also a coming-of-age story about growing up and losing your innocence that might have a “Bambi”-like resonance for children. The movie’s sheep have a way of erasing unpleasant things from their minds — they believe, for instance, that instead of dying, they just turn into clouds — but learn that death is an inextricable part of life.

“In some ways, the most important character is Mopple, the sheep played by Chris O’Dowd,” the screenwriter, Craig Mazin, said in a video interview. “He has a defect — he does not know how to forget — and he’s been carrying his memories all alone.”

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“Three Bags Full” is an adult novel that includes grown-up themes like drugs and suicide. In adapting it for a younger audience, Mazin toned down its darker elements, changed its ending, and — for help in writing about death — consulted a book by Fred Rogers, TV’s Mister Rogers, about how to talk to children about difficult subjects.

The journey from book to film has been long and circuitous. “Three Bags Full” was written by Leonie Swann, then a 20-something German doctoral student studying English literature. Distracting herself from her unwritten dissertation, on the topic of “the animal point of view in fiction,” she began a short story “playing around with the idea of sheep detectives,” she said. “And I realized it was more like a novel, and it wasn’t the worst novel I’d ever seen.”

Why sheep? “I wasn’t someone who was thinking about sheep all the time,” Swann, who lives in the English countryside and has a dog named Ezra Hound, said in a video interview. Yet they have always hovered on the periphery of her life.

There was a friendly sheep that she used to see on her way to school. There was an irate ram that once chased her through the streets of a Bavarian village. And there were thousands and thousands of sheep in the fields of Ireland, where she lived for a time. “There were so many of them, and you could tell there was a lot of personality behind them,” she said.

A book in which sheep are stirred to action had to be a mystery, she said, to motivate the main characters. “In a lot of other stories, you would have trouble making a sheep realize there’s a story there,” she said. “They would just keep grazing. But murder is an existential problem that speaks to sheep as well as humans.”

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Swann (the name is a pseudonym; she has never publicly disclosed her real name) found a literary agent, Astrid Poppenhusen, who brought her manuscript to market. Published in 2005, the book was translated into 30 languages and ended up spending three and a half years on German best-seller lists. (The German title is “Glennkill,” after the village in which it takes place.) Other novels followed, including a sheep-centric sequel, “Big Bad Wool,” but Swann never finished her dissertation.

Doran, the producer, read the book — now published in the United States by Soho Press, along with four other Swann novels — soon after hearing about it. She was determined to make it into a movie. Whenever she told anyone about the idea, she said, she had them at “sheep.”

The director, Kyle Balda (whose credits include “Minions”), was so excited when he first read the script, in 2022, that “I immediately drove out to a sheep farm” near his house in Oregon, he said in a video interview. “Very instantly I could see the behavior of the sheep, their different personalities. I learned very quickly that there are more varieties of sheep than dogs.”

How to make the sheep look realistic, and how to strike the proper balance between their inherent sheep-iness and their human-esque emotions were important questions the filmmakers grappled with.

It was essential that “the sheep in this world are sheep” rather than humans in sheep’s clothing, Balda said. “It’s not the kind of story where they are partnered with humans and talking to each other.”

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That means that like real sheep, the movie sheep have short attention spans. They’re afraid to cross the road. “They don’t drive cars; they don’t wear pants; they’re not joke characters saying things like, ‘This grass would taste better with a little ranch dressing,’” Doran said.

And whenever they speak, their words register to humans as bleating, the way the adult speech in “Peanuts” cartoons sounds like trombone-y gibberish to Charlie Brown and his friends.

Lily, the leader of the flock, is played by Julia Louis-Dreyfus. It is not her first time voicing an animal in a movie: She has played, among other creatures, an ant in “A Bug’s Life” and a horse in “Animal Farm.” “When I read the script, I thought, ‘Wow, this is so weird,’” she said in a video interview. “It’s not derivative of anything else.”

Lily is unquestionably not a person; among other things, like a real sheep, she has a relatively immobile face set off by lively ears. “But her journey is a human journey where she realizes certain things about life she didn’t understand,” Louis-Dreyfus said. “There’s also the question of being a leader, and how to do that when you’re questioning your own point of view.”

Nicholas Braun took easily to the role of Officer Tim, the inept constable charged with solving the shepherd’s murder.

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“The part was a little Greg-adjacent in the beginning, and I don’t really want to play too many Gregs,” Braun said via video, referring to Cousin Greg, his hapless punching bag of a character in the TV drama “Succession.”

“I’m post-Greg,” he said.

It takes Officer Tim some time to notice that the neighborhood sheep might be actively helping him tackle the case. But Braun said that unlike Greg, who is stuck in perpetual ineptitude, Tim gets to grow into a braver and more assertive person, a take-charge romantic hero — much the way the sheep are forced into action from their default position of “just forgetting about it and moving on and going back to eating grass,” he said.

Braun mused for a bit about other potential animal detectives — horses, say, or cows — but concluded that the sheep in the film were just right for the job. He predicted that the movie would change people’s perception of sheep, much the way “Toy Story” made them “look at their toys, or their kids’ toys, differently.”

“I don’t think people are going to be eating as much lamb after this,” he said.,

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