Culture
Pre-training camp NFL Power Rankings: Chiefs and 49ers reign, Texans and Bears on the rise
The longest offseason in major professional sports will be over by the end of the week. Five NFL teams have already opened training camp. Twenty-three more start on Tuesday, and the remaining four kick off Wednesday. The Hall of Fame Game between the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears is less than 10 days away.
So we can officially say the NFL is back, and the power rankings are just as happy about that as the rest of you. The preseason rankings start where last season’s rankings ended — with the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers at the top — but there’s been some movement down the line. The Hall of Fame Game participants, for instance, are among the biggest risers because of one young quarterback who has already proven himself and another who everyone expects to soon.
On with the list:
Last season: 11-6 in regular season, Super Bowl champions
The last time the Chiefs failed to make the NFL’s final four, Matthew Stafford was a Lion, Ryan Tannehill was a Dolphin and Ben Roethlisberger was an active player. That was 2017. Since then, Patrick Mahomes has won 15 playoff games (more than all quarterbacks but Tom Brady and Joe Montana) and never finished a season as a starter short of the AFC Championship Game. Mahomes is 28 years old. If he plays as long as Brady, that means 17 more years to pad what could be an otherworldly stat line.
Last season: 12-5, lost Super Bowl
The 49ers are the NFL’s narrative busters. Need a top-10 quarterback to compete at the highest level? Nope. San Francisco has gone to two Super Bowls and two more NFC title games with Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. There are consequences for missing on a top-five quarterback? Not for the Niners. This team traded three first-round picks to draft Trey Lance No. 3 in 2021 and hasn’t missed a beat despite Lance already being off the team. Kyle Shanahan, despite his near misses, might be underpaid.
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Last season: 12-5, lost NFC Championship Game
The Lions have won more games since Nov. 6, 2022 (22), than they did in the previous 1,769 days (18). These are giddy times in Detroit, and the Lions have responded by throwing cash around, extending quarterback Jared Goff, offensive lineman Penei Sewell and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to big-money deals this offseason. Maybe just as importantly, Detroit retained offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who led the Lions to the fifth-best offense in the league last season based on EPA (expected points added) per play, according to TruMedia.
Last season: 10-7, lost in AFC divisional round
For most of the NFL’s history, calling a team the Lions of the AFC would have been fighting words. Not anymore. The Texans are the cross-conference counterparts of the Lions, which is to say they are their conference’s best-vibes team. After C.J. Stroud’s remarkable rookie season, Houston is going all in behind its young quarterback, re-signing tight end Dalton Schultz and adding wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon to an offense that scored 45 points against one of the league’s best defenses in Stroud’s first career playoff game. If the Texans can survive being this offseason’s hot team, it could be a special season in Houston.
Last season: 13-4, lost AFC Championship Game
The 2023 Ravens were the NFL’s best team for long stretches. The 2024 Ravens are something different. Baltimore has added Derrick Henry but lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, linebacker Patrick Queen, safety Geno Stone, defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, three starting offensive linemen and about 10 percent of a quarterback. Reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson appears to have lost more than 20 pounds. Will he be the same player who has led Baltimore in rushing and passing each of the last five years? Probably.
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Last season: 11-6, lost in AFC wild-card round
In the first four seasons of Deshaun Watson’s career, he had a passer rating of 104.5, a 2.4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and was off target on only 6.4 percent of his throws, according to TruMedia. It’s why the Browns sent three first-round picks, a third and two fourths to the Texans to acquire him. In two seasons in Cleveland, Watson has a passer rating of 81.7, a 1.6 TD-to-interception ratio and has been off target on 15.8 percent of his throws. Last year’s Browns still won 11 games. If Watson and running back Nick Chubb (coming off a knee injury) can return to form this year, Cleveland will be a contender.
Last season: 12-5, lost in NFC wild-card round
In the last three seasons, the Cowboys have won 36 regular-season games and one playoff game. Owner Jerry Jones is so fed up that he … did basically nothing this offseason to improve the team. Head coach Mike McCarthy is back (with a new defensive coordinator — Mike Zimmer, who replaced Dan Quinn). Linebacker Eric Kendricks and running back Royce Freeman were Dallas’ only free-agency additions. Plus, quarterback Dak Prescott will be playing with a $55 million cap hit and in the final year of his contract this season because the Cowboys don’t seem concerned about getting an extension done.
Last season: 9-8, lost in NFC divisional round
Green Bay was the fourth-youngest playoff team in NFL history last season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. In the second half of the season, the Packers’ offense was eighth in the league in scoring (23.7) and fourth in yards per play (6.0), and they won seven of their last 10 games. In the playoffs, Green Bay put 48 points on the Cowboys and then lost by just three to the 49ers in the divisional round. Coach Matt LaFleur and 25-year-old quarterback Jordan Love seem to be getting along fine.
Last season: 11-6, lost in AFC divisional round
Only the Chiefs have a longer active streak of double-digit-win seasons than the Bills’ five. Whether Buffalo can continue that streak is one of the league’s most interesting questions. It lost Diggs, Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, Tyrel Dodson and Leonard Floyd in the offseason. That means more of the load falls on quarterback Josh Allen, who already carries plenty for the Bills. In the last five seasons, no player has averaged more fantasy points per game, according to TruMedia. It’s not an exact match for on-field value, but it’s a pretty good indicator.
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Next man up to next big thing: Terrel Bernard climbs to centerpiece of Bills defense
Last season: 11-6, lost in NFC wild-card round
Questions abound in Philly. Will new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s system suit quarterback Jalen Hurts? How will the offensive line hold up without “the other Kelce,” center Jason who, like his brother Travis, is a future Hall of Famer but, unlike his brother, is not dating Taylor Swift and is now retired? But the biggest question is: What the heck happened last season? The Eagles lost six of their last seven games, and their point differential (minus-59) was the fourth worst in the league during that stretch, suggesting something more than personnel fits was amiss with the one-time juggernaut.
Last season: 10-7, lost in NFC wild-card round
The Rams won seven of eight to end the regular season and dropped a one-point game to the Lions in the playoffs. In the offseason, they remade their secondary and fortified their offensive line. And just like that, 38-year-old coach Sean McVay is back in the fray in the NFC. McVay enters his eighth season already in the top 100 of all-time head-coaching wins (70). Just two years ago, he coached a five-win team and the media job offers were piling up. Now, he’s coaching a contender again.
Last season: 11-6, lost in AFC wild-card round
Through Week 15 last season, the Dolphins led the NFL with 31.5 points per game. From Week 16 through a wild-card round playoff loss, they were 30th in scoring with 15.5 points per game. Did defenses figure out the league’s fastest offense? Did injuries catch up to Miami? Was it just that they played better teams down the stretch? Yes to all three, but coach Mike McDaniel has had an entire offseason to adjust, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa should have lots of motivation playing in the final year of his contract.
Last season: 7-10, missed playoffs
Aaron Rodgers is ninth all time in the NFL in passing yards (59,055), and he realistically could pass Dan Marino and Matt Ryan this year to move to seventh. He’s fifth in passing touchdowns (475) and could pass Brett Favre to get to fourth. These numbers are provided here in case anyone forgot Rodgers actually plays football. And usually pretty well. If he can do that again this year after playing only four snaps before snapping his Achilles tendon last year, the Jets will be legitimate contenders. New York returns most of a defense that was second in the NFL in expected points added last season.
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Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs
The defense that quietly helped power Cincinnati to Super Bowl LVI completely fell apart last season. The Bengals gave up 6 yards per play, the worst number in the league. That’s going to have to be corrected if the vaunted return of Joe Burrow is going to mean much. The quarterback played only 10 games last season because of a wrist injury that everyone in Cincinnati hopes is behind him. In the last three seasons, Burrow’s passer rating (101) is the fourth best in the league, and he’s going to need to be special again this year.
Last season: 7-10, missed playoffs
A quick NFL history lesson: This team used to be referred to as the Monsters of the Midway. That’s right. The Bears were once good but have had only one winning season since 2012 and one playoff win since 2006. So why are Bears fans so giddy? No one in the NFL has added more in the offseason. The list includes No. 1 pick quarterback Caleb Williams, No. 9 pick wide receiver Rome Odunze, veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen, safety Kevin Byard and running back D’Andre Swift. They also overhauled their entire offensive coaching staff.
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Last season: 5-12, missed playoffs
Jim Harbaugh won 11 games in his second season as the University of San Diego’s head coach. He won 12 games and an Orange Bowl in his fourth year at Stanford. He won double-digit games in each of his first three seasons as coach of the 49ers. He won 10 games in his first year at the University of Michigan and a national title seven years later. The former quarterback is an odd duck, but he can coach. And now he has quarterback Justin Herbert, who has topped 4,700 passing yards in two of his four professional seasons.
Last season: 7-10, missed playoffs
The Falcons gave 35-year-old quarterback Kirk Cousins the largest total-money free-agency deal in NFL history (four years worth up to $180 million) and then spent the No. 8 pick on University of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. That’s how scarred Falcons owner Arthur Blank and his executives were after two years of alternating Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder as the starting quarterback. Cousins will be playing in the McVay offensive system thanks to Atlanta’s hiring of former Rams defensive coordinator (and before that Atlanta interim head coach) Raheem Morris as head coach.
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Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs
Entering his second season, Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is 15th in the NFL’s MVP odds, according to BetMGM. His odds are as good or better than those of Cousins, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson and many more proven players. So it seems the betting markets are putting as much pressure on the young quarterback as the Colts, who seem to be expecting Richardson to be some sort of Superman despite playing only four games in 2024 before a shoulder injury ended his season. He averaged 144 passing yards and 36 rushing yards per game in his four starts, during which Indianapolis went 2-2.
Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs
If you allow Seattle to have a mulligan on the 2009 season, when Jim Mora went a forgettable 5-11 before being fired, the Seahawks have had only two head coaches since 1999. Mike Holmgren held the job for 10 years, and Pete Carroll just finished a 14-year stint. Now it’s Macdonald’s turn. The former Ravens defensive coordinator was a college graduate assistant just 11 seasons ago and is taking over a team that could go either direction. The hopes of Macdonald and the Seahawks rest on quarterback Geno Smith, who is on a career-redefining run in Seattle.
Last season: 10-7, lost in AFC wild-card round
After 17 almost maddeningly consistent seasons in Pittsburgh, it seems like coach Mike Tomlin is going one way or the other in a big way this year. He has two new quarterbacks who come from starting jobs — Russell Wilson and Justin Fields — and a new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith. Tomlin has never had a losing season in Pittsburgh, but this offensive mix might end that. Or it might rejuvenate a team that hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016. Wilson and Fields both bring dynamic talents to the mix, and Smith has a good history with athletic quarterbacks. It should be fun to watch either way.
Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs
The Jaguars and their quarterback are the NFL’s Rorschach test — is this team the AFC South favorite led by one of the league’s best quarterbacks or is it teetering on the brink of a rebuild? It depends on how you squint. Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 pick in 2021, has topped 4,000 passing yards in each of his two non-Urban Meyer-coached seasons, but his touchdown-to-interception ratio since joining the league (1.5) is 27th in the last three years. That’s Daniel Jones and Garoppolo territory. Meanwhile, Jacksonville went 15-5 from Week 12 of 2022 through Week 12 of 2023 and then lost five of its last six to fall out of playoff contention.
Last season: 9-8, lost in NFC divisional round
Most of the Buccaneers’ offseason work consisted of holding on to their own free agents — quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. chief among them. The status quo feels fine to the Bucs these days after four straight seasons making the playoffs. That has happened only once before in the team’s 47-year history. A fifth straight trip would set a team record but likely will require holding off a restocked Falcons team in the NFC South. Given the recent history of both teams, the Bucs probably like their chances.
Last season: 7-10, missed playoffs
Jefferson became the highest-paid non-quarterback in the league this offseason when he signed a four-year, $140 million contract extension. That raise comes with heightened workplace expectations because instead of playing with a veteran quarterback in Cousins, Jefferson will have some combination of journeyman Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy this season. Jefferson already has 4,825 receiving yards, the most by any player in his first three seasons. He’ll have longtime Packers running back Aaron Jones to help on offense this season.
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Last season: 6-11, missed playoffs
The Titans will attempt to play a football season without Henry this year. Maybe it’ll work, but it feels like a bad idea. Since being selected 45th in the 2016 draft, Henry has accounted for 24 percent of Tennessee’s yards from scrimmage. In place of the bruising Henry, new head coach Brian Callahan has added running back Tony Pollard and wide receiver Calvin Ridley to pair with DeAndre Hopkins around young quarterback Will Levis.
Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs
New Orleans’ cold war against the salary cap continues. The Saints, who are scheduled to be $88 million over the cap next year, are paying a lot of old players a lot of money this year. Alvin Kamara, Marshon Lattimore, Cameron Jordan, Derek Carr and Taysom Hill, all 29 or older, are their highest-paid players and on the back end of their peaks. If free-agency addition Chase Young can jump-start his career, it will help.
Last season: 8-9, missed playoffs
The Raiders signed defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to the third-largest free-agency contract of this offseason, so they’re not acting like a rebuilding team. Just a thought, maybe it’s time they did. Las Vegas has had only two winning seasons since 2002 and will be quarterbacked by Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew this season. In defensive tackle Maxx Crosby and wide receiver Davante Adams, the Raiders have two of the most coveted trade pieces in the league. The Raiders can miss the playoffs without Crosby and Adams the same as they will with them, and they could restock with lots of high draft picks if they move them.
Last season: 4-13, missed playoffs
The Commanders signed a host of second-tier free agents in March, but the big move came in April when they drafted Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick. It looks to be a long build behind Daniels. The Commanders were 25th in scoring (19.35 ppg) and last in points allowed (30.5 per game) last season. Former Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn was hired in the offseason to fix things after a long courtship with Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson proved unfruitful.
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Last season: 6-11, missed playoffs
Giants fans should keep Oct. 19 clear on their calendar. That’s when the Georgia Bulldogs will be playing the Texas Longhorns, and chances are at least fair the Giants’ next quarterback will be on the field. With Georgia’s Carson Beck, Texas’ Quinn Ewers and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, the 2025 quarterback draft class should have plenty of options. Of course, maybe Daniel Jones (and his $41 million, soon-to-be $58 million cap hit) will be the answer. His career 22-36-1 record and career 6.6 yards-per-attempt average, which ranks 39th in the NFL in the last five years, would suggest otherwise, though.
Last season: 4-13, missed playoffs
The first Patriots season without Bill Belichick as head coach since Bill Clinton was president starts with a question at quarterback. How long can veteran Jacoby Brissett hold off No. 3 pick Drake Maye? That’ll be up to new head coach Jerod Mayo, the former New England linebacker and linebackers coach. Both Maye and Mayo should get some grace as they start their careers because New England is 29-38 in the last four seasons (yes, that’s how long Brady has been gone).
Last season: 4-13, missed playoffs
The Cardinals enter coach Jonathan Gannon’s second season with more optimism than has been earned by the team’s eight wins in the last two seasons. Quarterback Kyler Murray got some help this offseason in the form of No. 4 pick wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., but it’s the defense that really needs a boost. Arizona gave up the second-most points (455) in the NFL last season. The Cardinals have been the most generous team in the league over the last two seasons, allowing 904 points.
Last season: 8-9, missed playoffs
Sean Payton’s career post-Drew Brees hasn’t gone much better than Belichick’s did after Brady left New England. Payton is 17-17 in two seasons without Brees — one in New Orleans and last year in Denver. Payton thinks he’s found the answer in rookie quarterback Bo Nix, whom the Broncos took with the 12th pick of the first round. Not many people agree with him. Nix was widely considered a second-round prospect who padded his college numbers in a quarterback-friendly offense at Oregon. In fact, Denver’s entire quarterback room — Nix, Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson — makes it seem like Payton just wants to prove how good he is as a quarterbacks coach.
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Last season: 2-15, missed playoffs
Maybe the Panthers really, really wanted Dave Canales as their head coach. Or, maybe more high-profile candidates were scared off by the combination of owner David Tepper and quarterback Bryce Young. Canales had a nice year as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator in 2023, but it was his only season as a coordinator. If he can reverse Young’s career track, none of that will matter. The former Alabama quarterback’s 5.5 yards per attempt in his rookie season were the fewest for any quarterback in the last eight seasons.
(Top photo of C.J. Stroud: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
Culture
Bryce Underwood’s meetings with Tom Brady helped flip QB from LSU to Michigan: Source
It has been a rough year for the defending national champions, but on Thursday, the Wolverines got some great news: The nation’s No. 1 recruit, quarterback Bryce Underwood — an athletic 6-foot-4, 205-pound 17-year-old — announced he was flipping his commitment from LSU to Michigan.
After being committed to the Tigers for nearly a year, the move sent shock waves around the college football recruiting world. Football legend and Michigan alumnus Tom Brady, however, could see it coming.
A big piece in Underwood’s pledge to the Wolverines, a program source said, was that Brady was on several Zoom meetings with Underwood and became a great resource for the young QB.
Underwood grew up a Michigan fan and is from Belleville, Mich., just 20 minutes outside Ann Arbor. Wolverines coach Sherrone Moore preaches and recruits on the basis of “the best players in Michigan, go to Michigan.”
But former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh didn’t really seem interested in pursuing Underwood the way other top programs were. Not long after Harbaugh left for the Los Angeles Chargers’ top job in January, Sean Magee returned to Ann Arbor to become Michigan’s general manager after working in the Chicago Bears front office.
And Magee and Moore made Underwood a huge priority.
Yes sir! The Best Players in Michigan, Go to Michigan!! #ProcessOverPrize25 #GoBlue🔵
— Sherrone Moore (@Coach_SMoore) November 20, 2024
The two worked for months to repair the relationship with the star QB. Things kicked into high gear this week when Underwood spent two days around Michigan and felt very comfortable with the direction things are now heading with the program.
The Wolverines, less than a year removed from a national championship, are currently 5-5 and out of playoff contention.
“Everyone assumes we’re just handing this kid over eight figures, but that’s not true,” the source said.
— Bryce Jay Underwood (@BryceUnderwoo16) November 22, 2024
Now that the Wolverines have their QB of the future in place, expect them to make a lot more noise on the recruiting front with the early signing period less than two weeks away.
Required reading
(Photo: Nic Antaya / UFL / Getty Images)
Culture
At the Bellagio, a gathering of chefs (and Mark Wahlberg) highlights F1’s spectacle
This article is part of the “Beyond the Track” series, a dive on the surrounding scene, glamour and culture that makes a Grand Prix.
LAS VEGAS — A dash of dancing fountains, a sprinkle of star power supplied by a collection of celebrity chefs, and even something to chase it all down with champagne. Welcome to the Bellagio Fountain Club, a perfect recipe of the trappings the Las Vegas Grand Prix offers that makes it the most unique race on the Formula One calendar.
At first taste, a who’s who of chefs coming together just hours before qualifying might be hard to swallow. Ah, not so, says Wolfgang Puck, explaining there are parallels between performing at a high level on the track and concocting a gourmet meal in the kitchen.
“A restaurant is exactly the same as a Formula One team. Both are like an orchestra,” Puck told The Athletic. “It’s exactly the same. Because everybody has to work together and everybody has to help each other. You have to really bring it on because it is also all about timing. In a restaurant, if you have three or four different stations and one order has this or that and you have five different dishes coming out for one table, you can’t have them all coming at the same time. So it’s organization and a lot of training.”
Puck is no F1 novice; he closely followed the European-centric sport as a boy in Austria. Naturally, his favorite driver was fellow Austrian Niki Lauda, who later became a good friend. The mere mention of the three-time world champion’s name causes Puck to smile, with him immediately reminiscing about watching Lauda race whenever F1 visited the street circuit in Long Beach, Calif.
Back then, Puck was a rising chef, on the precipice of becoming one of the first chefs to crossover into the mainstream culture, while Lauda was already recognized as an F1 legend. A friendship was formed, and each time Puck attends a grand prix, it brings back a flood of memories of watching races around the globe.
Puck was also here a year ago attending the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix, and he is wowed by how this race became an event, a word he emphasizes because how can a setting like this — the famed Bellagio fountains behind him, and a purposely constructed street circuit that winds through Las Vegas’ famous landmarks — be a mere race.
“I think (the grand prix) shows Las Vegas really in a good way because they race at night,” Puck said. “I really think it’s really an amazing thing to finally have it here. People can come from all over the world. There are more hotel rooms so close by, like I go to the Formula One in Budapest and they have very few hotel rooms, you have to stay 50 miles away in a little donkey hotel. Then, you need to get out of the parking lot. Like this year, we waited two-and-a-half hours to get out of the parking lot. That doesn’t happen here.”
Although champagne toasts and caviar dishes have always been synonymous with the globetrotting sport that races in exotic locales, there is no denying that F1 is presented much differently than it was even five years ago.
Propelled by the “Drive to Survive” effect, the boost in U.S. interest in the sport often credited to the Netflix docuseries, races have become such a spectacle that a gathering like this one featuring nearly 20 name chefs doesn’t feel out of place on a grand prix weekend.
And just as Puck is an example of a more traditional F1 fan, another attendee here represents the other side of the spectrum.
“My daughter. All my daughter,” Mark Wahlberg said, explaining how he discovered F1.
Like so many, “Drive to Survive” was the entry point for Grace Wahlberg becoming infatuated with the sport. In particular, she was drawn to McLaren teammates Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. Before too long, her newfound interest piqued her father’s own curiosity, eventually leading to Mark, the famed actor, pulling some strings so that Grace could get the chance to sit inside one of Norris’ older cars.
“She has a big crush on two of the guys, Oscar and Lando, and so she wanted to meet them,” Mark Wahlberg told The Athletic. “So me being a dad who likes to make things happen for my kids, I figured out how I could track Lando down and get a car sent to the house. It was cool for us to be able to spend some time together and enjoy something.”
Donnie Wahlberg nods his head and smiles as his younger brother describes how he got into F1. It’s the kind of nod that implies, “I told you so,” because Donnie has long been a fan, discovering the sport and learning its intricacies when they toured Europe during the heyday of the boy band New Kids on the Block.
Donnie has lots of opinions on F1 but little time now to express them all. He has to jet to meet his wife. But before he departs, he wants to make one thing known: He loves Michael Schumacher. And while the debate among fans of who is better often centers on Schumacher, Ayrton Senna or Lewis Hamilton, Donnie leans in a different direction. His vote: Max Verstappen is the GOAT.
Mark gives his own smile as Donnie makes his point, though he prefers not to wade into the debate. Maybe Mark’s devotion to McLaren isn’t quite yet to the level of Grace’s or Donnie’s, though it doesn’t appear far off. Nor is his support mere lip service, instead it comes from a genuine place. He may be here at the Bellagio supporting his other brother Paul, a chef who’s worked in the restaurant industry since he was a teenager, but he’s also here because he’s a fan happy to be immersing himself in the event.
And here on a Friday afternoon atop a structure purposely built so fans could watch cars speed down Las Vegas Boulevard, F1 fans old and new intermingle. The event is all anyone is talking about.
“It’s a global event now,” Puck said. “Back then, Americans didn’t know Formula One. It wasn’t that popular. It’s not like today.”
The Beyond the Track series is part of a partnership with Chanel.
The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
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(Top photo: Jordan Bianchi / The Athletic)
Culture
NFL Week 12 roundtable: Giants’ QB plan post-Jones, NFC West race, is Bo Nix legit OROY contender?
You can officially count the New York Giants among the teams whose offseason will be built around finding its next franchise quarterback.
Daniel Jones’ being benched and then released is just one development highlighting league happenings leading up to Sunday’s Week 12 action. The Giants host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with fan favorite Tommy DeVito in line to start.
Elsewhere in this week’s roundtable, our NFL writers Mike Sando, Zak Keefer and Jeff Howe discuss the NFC West. Could it be the league’s most fascinating division title race?
What about the Offensive Rookie of the Year race? Is the Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix (or another rookie quarterback) closing in on the Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels? Though Anthony Richardson has redeemed himself in Indianapolis, how will he and the Colts fare against the buzz saw that is the Detroit Lions? The 11-point favorite Kansas City Chiefs — sans Taylor Swift — visit Charlotte and the Carolina Panthers for the first time in eight years. The Harbaugh Bowl caps off Week 12 on Monday night, too.
Read more on what’s catching our writers’ attention this week.
The Daniel Jones era is over as the Giants host the Bucs. What’s next for Jones? What does the Giants’ plan at quarterback look like this offseason?
Howe: They tried to move up for a top QB in April, and I’d expect a similar effort — if not a more concerted one — this spring. The Giants are still in contention for the No. 1 pick, so they might get their choice of QBs, but the race has primarily been focusing on Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. There isn’t a marquee prospect in this class, though, and there are personnel executives who have already said they wouldn’t rank any of the 2025 QBs ahead of the six first-rounders from April. The Giants, like every QB-desperate team, should be aggressive, but they can’t force it. As for Jones, he’ll enter the camp competition vortex for teams that aren’t able to find a starting-caliber QB in the draft. It’s recently worked for the likes of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson, so I’d highly recommend a friendly offensive system.
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Sando: Jones projects as a backup somewhere, possibly with a team that has playoff aspirations and could stand to upgrade behind its starter. The Miami Dolphins are only 4-6, but they could use an upgrade behind Tua Tagovailoa. The Arizona Cardinals have Clayton Tune. Tampa Bay has Kyle Trask. The Minnesota Vikings have Nick Mullens. Maybe those teams love their backups, but I could see teams in their situations considering Jones.
As for the Giants, who will be making the decisions there? How high will their draft choice be? Which veterans might be available? It’s just way too early to know what the Giants are going to do, based on all the important unknown variables. They need to find a veteran able to start and possibly develop so they aren’t too dependent on their next drafted QB — especially in 2025, which doesn’t look like the best year for drafting at the position.
Keefer: Jones is going to make a lot of money in this league as a capable backup somewhere, removed from the expectations that come with being a franchise guy. I can’t see a team — barring an unforeseen injury — rolling with him as the starter in Week 1 next season. Not after what he’s put on tape the last two seasons. And the Giants will find themselves this spring backed into one of the worst corners in football: needing a quarterback in a draft that doesn’t feature a lot of quarterback talent. That’s caused teams to reach in the past, and it’s burned them for decades. New York would be wise to go the veteran route before the draft just to be safe. I wonder whether the prospect of Justin Fields taking over would get Giants fans excited.
The Broncos, on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, are in the thick of the AFC playoff hunt. Is Bo Nix (or another rookie QB) a legitimate Offensive Rookie of the Year contender or is it still Jayden Daniels’ award to lose?
Howe: It’s Daniels’ award to lose, and Drake Maye is playing better than Nix. If Daniels and the Commanders tumble while the Broncos snag a playoff spot, there’s absolutely an avenue for Nix to claim the award, but I would still take Daniels over the field.
Sando: It’s Daniels’ award to lose, but there is some uncertainty about how strongly he and that offense will finish. Nix is definitely gaining on him from a production standpoint. We can see that in the table below, which shows production for Daniels, Nix and Maye over their past six games. That’s a big change from early in the season.
Rookie QB comp: Last six games
QB | Daniels | Nix | Maye |
---|---|---|---|
W-L |
3-3 |
3-3 |
2-4 |
Cmp-Att |
101-163 |
132-192 |
122-181 |
Cmp% |
62.0% |
68.8% |
67.4% |
Yards |
1,203 |
1,409 |
1,214 |
Yds/Att |
7.4 |
7.3 |
6.7 |
TD-INT |
6-1 |
11-2 |
9-6 |
Rating |
94.2 |
104.7 |
89.0 |
Sacked |
11 |
11 |
15 |
QB EPA |
13.0 |
31.2 |
10.4 |
EPA/Pass Play |
+0.11 |
+0.13 |
+0.05 |
Keefer: Mike is right — it’s not only Bo Nix entering the conversation but Drake Maye as well, although he won’t be able to boast the relative team success Daniels is enjoying in Washington and Nix is enjoying in Denver. Voters for these types of awards often lean on turnaround stories, and for a while this season, Daniels was scripting the best one in football. He’s still in front, but how he responds to consecutive losses might very well end up deciding this award.
The Chiefs are 11-point favorites on the road against the Panthers and, presumably, they’ll bounce back Sunday. Does the loss in Buffalo combined with the Lions’ continued rise change how you feel about Kansas City?
Howe: A bit, yes. If the Chiefs managed to beat the Buffalo Bills with a subpar performance, that might have been a wrap, but the Lions and Bills are decisively better right now. And though everyone is waiting for the Chiefs to get significantly better as Patrick Mahomes gains experience with his skill players, we shouldn’t overlook the fact Josh Allen and the Bills will do the same. No one who has watched the playoffs for the past half-decade is ever going to write off the Chiefs, but they’re objectively behind Detroit and Buffalo entering the most pivotal stretch of the season.
Sando: The way the Bills offense handled the Chiefs defense should be concerning for Kansas City. Kansas City can improve as the season progresses because it is well coached and it will be developing key players as Isaiah Pacheco returns, Xavier Worthy gains experience, etc. But it feels like a good year to be Detroit or Buffalo, all things considered. The Chiefs are very good but less dominant than their record indicates.
Keefer: I learned my lesson last year. The regular season simply does not matter for the Chiefs. They’ve come to transcend football norms during their dynastic run. It doesn’t matter that plenty of their wins this season have been unconvincing. Doesn’t matter that Travis Kelce has taken a step back. Doesn’t matter that Patrick Mahomes has looked mediocre — or worse — for stretches. Doesn’t matter that they couldn’t close out the Bills last week. They absolutely remain a legitimate Super Bowl contender and can beat anyone in the playoffs. Remember, as Kansas City proved last year, it’s not the team that looks the best in November and December, it’s the one that gets hot in January. More than any team out there, it knows how to do that.
The Harbaugh Bowl takes place Monday night. The Baltimore Ravens trail in the AFC North title race. The 7-3 Los Angeles Chargers escaped the Cincinnati Bengals last week. There are plenty of storylines in this one. Which one intrigues you the most?
Howe: Before the season, coaches and executives around the league predicted Justin Herbert would make a jump with Jim Harbaugh, who would prioritize the ground game and a high-level defense to complement his quarterback. Harbaugh proceeded to run a conservative offense, but he’s given Herbert more of a chance to let it rip as of late. If Herbert topples the Ravens, he’s going to earn serious MVP consideration.
Sando: I’m interested in seeing whether the Chargers’ much-improved defense can slow Lamar Jackson with the benefit of whatever inside info they have from coordinators Jesse Minter and Greg Roman, who spent significant time on the Ravens’ staff. Is this a game the Chargers can play on their terms? What happens if this game picks up where Chargers-Bengals left off? Will Justin Herbert keep pace with Jackson in that case?
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Keefer: The Chargers-Bengals game was one of the best of the season — Herbert went wild in the first half, then Joe Burrow put together some of the best football I’ve ever seen him play in the second. The intriguing layer of the Harbaugh matchup Monday night is how Lamar Jackson bounces back from last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (his -0.21 EPA per dropback and 66.1 passer rating were season lows). Jackson typically torches teams outside the AFC North, and a statement win Monday against an elite defense — the Chargers lead the league in scoring defense at 14.2 allowed per game — would push him right back in front of the MVP race.
It’s time for the biweekly NFC West temperature check. The Los Angeles Rams (5-5) host a hot Philadelphia Eagles team Sunday night. The San Francisco 49ers (5-5) are on the road against the Green Bay Packers. The Cardinals (6-4) and Seattle Seahawks (5-5) meet. Which team is in the best position to win the division?
Howe: I liked the Cardinals as a fun surprise team this season, but I didn’t anticipate they’d be a serious division threat, even if injuries among their opponents are a big reason. I’ll stick with the Cardinals because they’re playing the best and continue to get better. I do like the Seahawks and think they’re neck and neck with Arizona, so their two meetings in the next three weeks could very well tell the story in this division race. Seattle needs to focus more on the run game, though, and the O-line injuries have been problematic. The Niners still have the highest ceiling in the division, but they’ve been giving away too many games and I’m not ready to assume that pattern is about to magically break. The Rams have been too inconsistent, although I can’t rule out Matthew Stafford’s flipping a switch and keeping them in the mix.
Sando: The Athletic’s model gives the Cardinals a 58 percent chance of winning the division, followed by the Rams (23 percent), the 49ers (12 percent) and the Seahawks (8 percent). Is it really that lopsided? I see this division coming down to the final week, when San Francisco visits Arizona and the Rams visit Seattle. All four teams could have a shot at 9-8. Any team getting to 10-7 probably will win the division. I don’t see any team with a big advantage, but I question whether the 49ers can stay healthy enough to prevail.
Keefer: The Cardinals are playing the best of any team in the division, and as Jeff noted, these two meetings with the Seahawks could end up deciding the NFC West title. (San Francisco and L.A. have been too inconsistent.) But critical this time of year are the teams that are showing tangible signs of improvement, and the Cardinals fit the bill: Arizona has won four straight, including its last two by a combined 45 points. In three of those wins the defense allowed less than 16 points. On offense, Kyler Murray has been lighting it up. By mid-January, I like the Cardinals to win their first division title since 2015.
(Top photo of Bo Nix: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)
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