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Breaking down the highest-scoring penalty shootout in professional English football

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Breaking down the highest-scoring penalty shootout in professional English football

Deepdale was the venue of English football’s most interminable penalty shootout on Tuesday night.

After playing out a 1-1 draw in normal time during their Carabao Cup third-round tie, Fulham and Preston North End took a record-breaking 34 penalties between them, with an astonishing 31 finding the net.

Excluding FA Cup qualifiers, this was the highest-scoring penalty shootout ever in a major English domestic competition. It surpassed the League Cup clash between Derby County and Carlisle United in 2016, which finished 14-13.

It reflects a modern trend, with all five of the highest-scoring shootouts taking place within the past 13 years. That’s perhaps indicative of the increasing attention to detail during shootouts. That was certainly the case for Fulham, according to head coach Marco Silva, although it did not pay off.

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“We always prepare,” he told Fulham’s media channel. “When you play in these competitions, it is part of our routine to prepare penalties. Sometimes we repeat; not just one penalty for one player. We do it twice against the same goalkeeper. But it’s one thing to prepare in a session and another thing when it comes to a shootout decision in a competition.”

For Fulham, the shootout’s longevity surpassed a miserable night in Aldershot back in 1987, in what was then known as the Freight Rovers Cup. They were defeated 11-10 after a 1-1 draw in normal time, with 28 penalties taken. Gordon Davies, the club’s record goalscorer, took two penalties in the shootout and missed them both. For Preston, this result betters a 10-9 victory over Oldham in the 2014-15 edition of the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy.

This result was a big upset for Paul Heckingbottom’s Championship side, knocking out a side that reached the semi-finals last season. Ryan Ledson, who also scored a sublime half-volley in normal time for Preston, netted the winning spot kick after Fulham’s Timothy Castagne blazed his strike over the bar. Reiss Nelson, who was one of 11 changes for Fulham from their draw at West Ham on Saturday, scored his side’s goal in normal time.

“The standard of penalties was really good,” Heckingbottom told Preston’s YouTube channel. “When you get that deep into it, showing the commitment in the game to get to penalties, and then they are racking up 9-9, 10-10, 11-11… the more it went on, the more I wanted to win the game.  To have a positive end to that is really good.”

To mark this historic occasion, and in true The Athletic style, here is the breakdown of every single penalty on a unique night at Deepdale.

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No 1: Raul Jimenez. Fulham. Scores — 0-1

Jimenez gets us under way. He takes a huge run-up, about 10 yards. He side-steps to the left, before strolling up to the ball and sending goalkeeper Freddie Woodman the wrong way. That’s going to happen a few times to both goalkeepers…

No 2. Ben Whiteman. Preston. Scores — 1-1

Preston captain Whiteman gets the hosts on the board. A quicker run-up, slight hesitation and then he blasts it to the goalkeeper’s right. Steven Benda goes the right way but can’t get close.

No 3. Sasa Lukic. Fulham. Scores — 1-2

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Woodman goes the right way, but Lukic’s penalty, which is hit hard and low to the goalkeeper’s right, is out of reach.

No 4. Sam Greenwood. Preston. Scores — 2-2

The shortest run-up yet. Perhaps a moment of jeopardy, prime territory for a ridiculed delivery…

Never in doubt. Hard and low to Benda’s right. The ’keeper can’t get near it. Ominous standards set so far.

No 5. Sander Berge. Fulham. Scores — 2-3

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High to Woodman’s right. A second penalty that the ’keeper has gone the right way for, but he just can’t reach it.

No 6. Jeppe Okkels. Preston. Scores — 3-3

Winger Okkels opens up his body and aims for top bins. It’s close to the side netting and while not quite top corner, he finds the net. Benda goes the right way but to no avail.

No 7. Alex Iwobi. Fulham. Scores — 3-4

Iwobi’s penalty would be a decent height for a goalkeeper, but he’s done the hard part and that is sending Woodman the wrong way. He flashes the goalkeeper a little smile. We go on.

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No 8. Alistair McCann. Preston. Scores — 4-4

You don’t save those. Midfielder McCann whips the ball high and well clear of Benda.

No 9. Ryan Sessegnon. Fulham. Scores — 4-5

Sessegnon keeps his eyes fixed on the ’keeper and then sends him the wrong way, but there’s a little tension.

He celebrates by walking up to Woodman and putting his finger to his lips. So far the keeper tricks aren’t working for either side.

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No 10. Milutin Osmajic. Preston. Scores — 5-5

Osmajic, the Preston striker, had the least amount of touches during the game. But he made this one count. That’s 10 out of 10 for the team’s best takers. Pretty flawless all round. Now for sudden death and those who didn’t fancy it…

No 11. Timothy Castagne. Fulham. Scores — 5-6

The night was going well for Castagne at this point. He nets his spot kick, high to the ’keeper’s right, who is sent the wrong way. There’s a fist pump to the away end. Enjoy it while it lasts, Timothy.

No 12. Ryan Ledson. Preston. Scores — 6-6

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Mirrors Castagne’s penalty. High and unstoppable. The goalkeeper goes the wrong way. Not even close.

No 13. Emile Smith Rowe. Fulham. Scores — 6-7

Fulham’s club-record signing takes the first penalty of the night that looked a little dicey. Woodman goes the right way and almost gets a hand to it. The pace of the penalty carries it into the net. It’s an accurate penalty, though, right in the corner.

No 14. Liam Lindsay. Preston. Scores — 7-7

So many of Preston’s penalties are aimed high. It’s admirably ballsy. Fulham ’keeper Benda seems to dive under this one. Centre-back Lindsay’s penalty is nearer the centre than the corner, but it’s unreachable for helpless Benda. Preston’s players aren’t feeling the pressure of taking second.

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No 15. Issa Diop. Fulham. Scores — 7-8 

Diop takes two steps and crashes it into the net. Woodman has not started his dive by the time the ball flashes past him. A true elite centre-back penalty. Gets a few gasps for the chutzpah. If Diop is scoring belters then this is not going to end any time soon.

No 16. Jordan Storey. Preston. Scores — 8-8

Storey goes high and finds the top corner. Benda goes the right way, but even if he had guessed correctly he is not saving that. Well into territory now where questions start being asked about the goalkeepers… Crack open the Carabao cans, could be a long night.

No 17. Jorge Cuenca. Fulham. SAVED — 8-8

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Now this is what a centre-back’s penalty should look like. None of this top-corner nonsense. Nice and readable, Woodman dives low to his left to parry the ball away. Big fist bump celebration. Now a chance to end the shootout…

No 18. Kaine Kesler-Hayden. Preston. SAVED — 8-8

After spending the past 10 minutes or so flailing miserably around the six-yard box, both ’keepers suddenly get off the mark. This penalty is abject. Kesler-Hayden can conclude proceedings, but his spot kick is far too straight and central.

No 19. Martial Godo. Fulham. Scores — 8-9

And… normal service resumes. Woodman dives the wrong way. Youngster Godo, 19, is clearly unhappy with Woodman, as like Sessegnon, he goes over to him and ‘shushes’ him.

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No 20. Andrew Hughes. Preston. Scores — 9-9

Everyone wants this one scored. Centre-back Hughes again sends Benda the wrong way and ensures we will see both ’keepers take a kick.

No 21. Steven Benda. Fulham. Scores — 9-10

Benda pulls off an outrageous penalty. He sticks it in the top corner. On this basis, he might be better at taking them than saving them! Woodman next…

No 22. Freddie Woodman. Preston. Scores — 10-10

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The same applies to Woodman. Benda goes the wrong way. Woodman fires hard and low. The show rolls on and the first-choice takers return…

No 23. Raul Jimenez. Fulham. Scores — 10-11

Taking two penalties in the same game is laced with risk. Although clearly not at Deepdale. Jimenez changes his run-up, adding a second stutter. He also sticks the ball in the top corner, above the reaches of Woodman, who did guess the right way.

No 24. Ben Whiteman. Preston. Scores — 11-11

Once the ’keepers have taken a penalty, it’s not that much fun anymore really. Benda goes close here, he gets his leg to the kick, which is fired down the middle. He thought the penalty would match the standards set earlier in the shootout. Good mind games from Whiteman.

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No 25. Sasa Lukic. Fulham. Scores — 11-12

Lukic fires his penalty in the same direction and Woodman remembers that well. Shame Lukic has stuffed the ball into the top corner, though. We go on.

No 26. Sam Greenwood. Preston. Scores — 12-12

Greenwood’s well-struck penalty beats Benda at full stretch. Heckingbottom and his staff are chuckling on the touchline. Parents with bedtimes to keep in the stands are not amused. Neither are the couple hundred Fulham fans who have 190 miles to travel once this firing practice concludes.

No 27. Sander Berge. Fulham. Scores — 12-13

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Berge shapes up to smack it Diop-style but then just strokes the ball into the net. Not in the corner, but it doesn’t matter as Woodman has gone the wrong way and he slumps to the turf. Surely we’re into bruising territory for the goalkeepers now. Good thing we’re not playing on Astro.

No 28. Jeppe Okkels. Preston. Scores — 13-13

Okkels’ razorsharp penalty keeps us going. Sorry.

No 29. Alex Iwobi. Fulham. Scores — 13-14

Iwobi’s uncle, Jay-Jay Okocha, once had a penalty saved at the 1996 Olympics by Brazilian legend Dida. Iwobi doesn’t miss. We go on.

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No 30. Alistair McCann. Preston. Scores — 14-14

At this point, there needs to be a handicap. Maybe each penalty has to be taken a yard further back? At the moment it feels a bit pointless having a goalkeeper. They are not getting near these kicks. Crossbar challenge, anyone?

No 31. Ryan Sessegnon. Fulham. Scores — 14-15

How’s your luck? Sessegnon tried to shush Woodman earlier, but the Preston goalkeeper does him a favour here. The ball hits the post, hits the back of Woodman and then goes in. Does that mean two goals for the ’keepers? Is this an own goal? If so, that means more goals scored by ’keepers than saves made…

No 32. Milutin Osmajic. Preston. Scores — 15-15

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I always liked those old-school MLS penalties, dribbling from the halfway line. Maybe bring in a defender, too, and get a one-on-one scenario going. Anyway, all of the first-choice takers have taken two penalties and scored them. It is impressive from Preston, really, as they have taken and scored 11 penalties where a miss would have eliminated them.

No 33. Timothy Castagne. Fulham. MISS — 15-15

Finally. After 33 penalties, we have one that misses the target completely. Castagne gets it all wrong, it’s high and wide. Completely out of keeping with the standard of penalties in this shootout.

Obviously, this shootout was not going to be decided by a ’keeper save.

No 34. Ryan Ledson. Preston. Scores — 16-15

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It’s over. Preston’s goalscorer in normal time seals the deal. Fittingly, he sends Benda the wrong way. A shootout of impressive quality comes to an end.

(Top photo: Getty Images)

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Bryce Underwood’s meetings with Tom Brady helped flip QB from LSU to Michigan: Source

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Bryce Underwood’s meetings with Tom Brady helped flip QB from LSU to Michigan: Source

It has been a rough year for the defending national champions, but on Thursday, the Wolverines got some great news: The nation’s No. 1 recruit, quarterback Bryce Underwood — an athletic 6-foot-4, 205-pound 17-year-old — announced he was flipping his commitment from LSU to Michigan.

After being committed to the Tigers for nearly a year, the move sent shock waves around the college football recruiting world. Football legend and Michigan alumnus Tom Brady, however, could see it coming.

A big piece in Underwood’s pledge to the Wolverines, a program source said, was that Brady was on several Zoom meetings with Underwood and became a great resource for the young QB.

Underwood grew up a Michigan fan and is from Belleville, Mich., just 20 minutes outside Ann Arbor. Wolverines coach Sherrone Moore preaches and recruits on the basis of “the best players in Michigan, go to Michigan.”

But former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh didn’t really seem interested in pursuing Underwood the way other top programs were. Not long after Harbaugh left for the Los Angeles Chargers’ top job in January, Sean Magee returned to Ann Arbor to become Michigan’s general manager after working in the Chicago Bears front office.

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And Magee and Moore made Underwood a huge priority.

The two worked for months to repair the relationship with the star QB. Things kicked into high gear this week when Underwood spent two days around Michigan and felt very comfortable with the direction things are now heading with the program.

The Wolverines, less than a year removed from a national championship, are currently 5-5 and out of playoff contention.

“Everyone assumes we’re just handing this kid over eight figures, but that’s not true,” the source said.

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Now that the Wolverines have their QB of the future in place, expect them to make a lot more noise on the recruiting front with the early signing period less than two weeks away.

Required reading

(Photo: Nic Antaya / UFL / Getty Images)

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At the Bellagio, a gathering of chefs (and Mark Wahlberg) highlights F1’s spectacle

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At the Bellagio, a gathering of chefs (and Mark Wahlberg) highlights F1’s spectacle

This article is part of the “Beyond the Track” series, a dive on the surrounding scene, glamour and culture that makes a Grand Prix.


LAS VEGAS — A dash of dancing fountains, a sprinkle of star power supplied by a collection of celebrity chefs, and even something to chase it all down with champagne. Welcome to the Bellagio Fountain Club, a perfect recipe of the trappings the Las Vegas Grand Prix offers that makes it the most unique race on the Formula One calendar.

At first taste, a who’s who of chefs coming together just hours before qualifying might be hard to swallow. Ah, not so, says Wolfgang Puck, explaining there are parallels between performing at a high level on the track and concocting a gourmet meal in the kitchen.

“A restaurant is exactly the same as a Formula One team. Both are like an orchestra,” Puck told The Athletic. “It’s exactly the same. Because everybody has to work together and everybody has to help each other. You have to really bring it on because it is also all about timing. In a restaurant, if you have three or four different stations and one order has this or that and you have five different dishes coming out for one table, you can’t have them all coming at the same time. So it’s organization and a lot of training.”

Puck is no F1 novice; he closely followed the European-centric sport as a boy in Austria. Naturally, his favorite driver was fellow Austrian Niki Lauda, who later became a good friend. The mere mention of the three-time world champion’s name causes Puck to smile, with him immediately reminiscing about watching Lauda race whenever F1 visited the street circuit in Long Beach, Calif.

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Back then, Puck was a rising chef, on the precipice of becoming one of the first chefs to crossover into the mainstream culture, while Lauda was already recognized as an F1 legend. A friendship was formed, and each time Puck attends a grand prix, it brings back a flood of memories of watching races around the globe.


“A restaurant is exactly the same as a Formula One team. Both are like an orchestra,” celebrity chef and F1 fan Wolfgang Puck says. (Christopher Trim / Cal Sport Media via AP Images)

Puck was also here a year ago attending the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix, and he is wowed by how this race became an event, a word he emphasizes because how can a setting like this — the famed Bellagio fountains behind him, and a purposely constructed street circuit that winds through Las Vegas’ famous landmarks — be a mere race.

“I think (the grand prix) shows Las Vegas really in a good way because they race at night,” Puck said. “I really think it’s really an amazing thing to finally have it here. People can come from all over the world. There are more hotel rooms so close by, like I go to the Formula One in Budapest and they have very few hotel rooms, you have to stay 50 miles away in a little donkey hotel. Then, you need to get out of the parking lot. Like this year, we waited two-and-a-half hours to get out of the parking lot. That doesn’t happen here.”

Although champagne toasts and caviar dishes have always been synonymous with the globetrotting sport that races in exotic locales, there is no denying that F1 is presented much differently than it was even five years ago.

Propelled by the “Drive to Survive” effect, the boost in U.S. interest in the sport often credited to the Netflix docuseries, races have become such a spectacle that a gathering like this one featuring nearly 20 name chefs doesn’t feel out of place on a grand prix weekend.

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And just as Puck is an example of a more traditional F1 fan, another attendee here represents the other side of the spectrum.

“My daughter. All my daughter,” Mark Wahlberg said, explaining how he discovered F1.

Like so many, “Drive to Survive” was the entry point for Grace Wahlberg becoming infatuated with the sport. In particular, she was drawn to McLaren teammates Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. Before too long, her newfound interest piqued her father’s own curiosity, eventually leading to Mark, the famed actor, pulling some strings so that Grace could get the chance to sit inside one of Norris’ older cars.

“She has a big crush on two of the guys, Oscar and Lando, and so she wanted to meet them,” Mark Wahlberg told The Athletic. “So me being a dad who likes to make things happen for my kids, I figured out how I could track Lando down and get a car sent to the house. It was cool for us to be able to spend some time together and enjoy something.”

Mark Wahlberg

How did actor Mark Wahlberg get into F1? “All my daughter,” he says. Daughter Grace is a fan of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. (Christopher Trim / Cal Sport Media via AP Images)

Donnie Wahlberg nods his head and smiles as his younger brother describes how he got into F1. It’s the kind of nod that implies, “I told you so,” because Donnie has long been a fan, discovering the sport and learning its intricacies when they toured Europe during the heyday of the boy band New Kids on the Block.

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Donnie has lots of opinions on F1 but little time now to express them all. He has to jet to meet his wife. But before he departs, he wants to make one thing known: He loves Michael Schumacher. And while the debate among fans of who is better often centers on Schumacher, Ayrton Senna or Lewis Hamilton, Donnie leans in a different direction. His vote: Max Verstappen is the GOAT.

Mark gives his own smile as Donnie makes his point, though he prefers not to wade into the debate. Maybe Mark’s devotion to McLaren isn’t quite yet to the level of Grace’s or Donnie’s, though it doesn’t appear far off. Nor is his support mere lip service, instead it comes from a genuine place. He may be here at the Bellagio supporting his other brother Paul, a chef who’s worked in the restaurant industry since he was a teenager, but he’s also here because he’s a fan happy to be immersing himself in the event.

And here on a Friday afternoon atop a structure purposely built so fans could watch cars speed down Las Vegas Boulevard, F1 fans old and new intermingle. The event is all anyone is talking about.

“It’s a global event now,” Puck said. “Back then, Americans didn’t know Formula One. It wasn’t that popular. It’s not like today.”

The Beyond the Track series is part of a partnership with Chanel.

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The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

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‘Perfect marriage of speed and glamour’: How Vegas becomes F1’s celebrity magnet

(Top photo: Jordan Bianchi / The Athletic)

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NFL Week 12 roundtable: Giants’ QB plan post-Jones, NFC West race, is Bo Nix legit OROY contender?

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NFL Week 12 roundtable: Giants’ QB plan post-Jones, NFC West race, is Bo Nix legit OROY contender?

You can officially count the New York Giants among the teams whose offseason will be built around finding its next franchise quarterback.

Daniel Jones’ being benched and then released is just one development highlighting league happenings leading up to Sunday’s Week 12 action. The Giants host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with fan favorite Tommy DeVito in line to start.

Elsewhere in this week’s roundtable, our NFL writers Mike Sando, Zak Keefer and Jeff Howe discuss the NFC West. Could it be the league’s most fascinating division title race?

What about the Offensive Rookie of the Year race? Is the Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix (or another rookie quarterback) closing in on the Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels? Though Anthony Richardson has redeemed himself in Indianapolis, how will he and the Colts fare against the buzz saw that is the Detroit Lions? The 11-point favorite Kansas City Chiefs — sans Taylor Swift — visit Charlotte and the Carolina Panthers for the first time in eight years. The Harbaugh Bowl caps off Week 12 on Monday night, too.

Read more on what’s catching our writers’ attention this week.

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The Daniel Jones era is over as the Giants host the Bucs. What’s next for Jones? What does the Giants’ plan at quarterback look like this offseason?

Howe: They tried to move up for a top QB in April, and I’d expect a similar effort — if not a more concerted one — this spring. The Giants are still in contention for the No. 1 pick, so they might get their choice of QBs, but the race has primarily been focusing on Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. There isn’t a marquee prospect in this class, though, and there are personnel executives who have already said they wouldn’t rank any of the 2025 QBs ahead of the six first-rounders from April. The Giants, like every QB-desperate team, should be aggressive, but they can’t force it. As for Jones, he’ll enter the camp competition vortex for teams that aren’t able to find a starting-caliber QB in the draft. It’s recently worked for the likes of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson, so I’d highly recommend a friendly offensive system.

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2025 NFL Draft order projections: Cowboys, Bears tumbling toward top-10 picks

Sando: Jones projects as a backup somewhere, possibly with a team that has playoff aspirations and could stand to upgrade behind its starter. The Miami Dolphins are only 4-6, but they could use an upgrade behind Tua Tagovailoa. The Arizona Cardinals have Clayton Tune. Tampa Bay has Kyle Trask. The Minnesota Vikings have Nick Mullens. Maybe those teams love their backups, but I could see teams in their situations considering Jones.

As for the Giants, who will be making the decisions there? How high will their draft choice be? Which veterans might be available? It’s just way too early to know what the Giants are going to do, based on all the important unknown variables. They need to find a veteran able to start and possibly develop so they aren’t too dependent on their next drafted QB — especially in 2025, which doesn’t look like the best year for drafting at the position.

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Keefer: Jones is going to make a lot of money in this league as a capable backup somewhere, removed from the expectations that come with being a franchise guy. I can’t see a team — barring an unforeseen injury — rolling with him as the starter in Week 1 next season. Not after what he’s put on tape the last two seasons. And the Giants will find themselves this spring backed into one of the worst corners in football: needing a quarterback in a draft that doesn’t feature a lot of quarterback talent. That’s caused teams to reach in the past, and it’s burned them for decades. New York would be wise to go the veteran route before the draft just to be safe. I wonder whether the prospect of Justin Fields taking over would get Giants fans excited.


Daniel Jones was benched Monday after the New York Giants’ 2-8 start to the season, during which he completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,070 yards, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions through 10 games. (Mario Hommes / DeFodi Images via Getty Images)

The Broncos, on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, are in the thick of the AFC playoff hunt. Is Bo Nix (or another rookie QB) a legitimate Offensive Rookie of the Year contender or is it still Jayden Daniels’ award to lose?

Howe: It’s Daniels’ award to lose, and Drake Maye is playing better than Nix. If Daniels and the Commanders tumble while the Broncos snag a playoff spot, there’s absolutely an avenue for Nix to claim the award, but I would still take Daniels over the field.

Sando: It’s Daniels’ award to lose, but there is some uncertainty about how strongly he and that offense will finish. Nix is definitely gaining on him from a production standpoint. We can see that in the table below, which shows production for Daniels, Nix and Maye over their past six games. That’s a big change from early in the season.

Rookie QB comp: Last six games

QB Daniels Nix Maye

W-L

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3-3

3-3

2-4

Cmp-Att

101-163

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132-192

122-181

Cmp%

62.0%

68.8%

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67.4%

Yards

1,203

1,409

1,214

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Yds/Att

7.4

7.3

6.7

TD-INT

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6-1

11-2

9-6

Rating

94.2

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104.7

89.0

Sacked

11

11

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15

QB EPA

13.0

31.2

10.4

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EPA/Pass Play

+0.11

+0.13

+0.05

Keefer: Mike is right — it’s not only Bo Nix entering the conversation but Drake Maye as well, although he won’t be able to boast the relative team success Daniels is enjoying in Washington and Nix is enjoying in Denver. Voters for these types of awards often lean on turnaround stories, and for a while this season, Daniels was scripting the best one in football. He’s still in front, but how he responds to consecutive losses might very well end up deciding this award.

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The Chiefs are 11-point favorites on the road against the Panthers and, presumably, they’ll bounce back Sunday. Does the loss in Buffalo combined with the Lions’ continued rise change how you feel about Kansas City?

Howe: A bit, yes. If the Chiefs managed to beat the Buffalo Bills with a subpar performance, that might have been a wrap, but the Lions and Bills are decisively better right now. And though everyone is waiting for the Chiefs to get significantly better as Patrick Mahomes gains experience with his skill players, we shouldn’t overlook the fact Josh Allen and the Bills will do the same. No one who has watched the playoffs for the past half-decade is ever going to write off the Chiefs, but they’re objectively behind Detroit and Buffalo entering the most pivotal stretch of the season.

Sando: The way the Bills offense handled the Chiefs defense should be concerning for Kansas City. Kansas City can improve as the season progresses because it is well coached and it will be developing key players as Isaiah Pacheco returns, Xavier Worthy gains experience, etc. But it feels like a good year to be Detroit or Buffalo, all things considered. The Chiefs are very good but less dominant than their record indicates.

Keefer: I learned my lesson last year. The regular season simply does not matter for the Chiefs. They’ve come to transcend football norms during their dynastic run. It doesn’t matter that plenty of their wins this season have been unconvincing. Doesn’t matter that Travis Kelce has taken a step back. Doesn’t matter that Patrick Mahomes has looked mediocre — or worse — for stretches. Doesn’t matter that they couldn’t close out the Bills last week. They absolutely remain a legitimate Super Bowl contender and can beat anyone in the playoffs. Remember, as Kansas City proved last year, it’s not the team that looks the best in November and December, it’s the one that gets hot in January. More than any team out there, it knows how to do that.

The Harbaugh Bowl takes place Monday night. The Baltimore Ravens trail in the AFC North title race. The 7-3 Los Angeles Chargers escaped the Cincinnati Bengals last week. There are plenty of storylines in this one. Which one intrigues you the most?

Howe: Before the season, coaches and executives around the league predicted Justin Herbert would make a jump with Jim Harbaugh, who would prioritize the ground game and a high-level defense to complement his quarterback. Harbaugh proceeded to run a conservative offense, but he’s given Herbert more of a chance to let it rip as of late. If Herbert topples the Ravens, he’s going to earn serious MVP consideration.

Sando: I’m interested in seeing whether the Chargers’ much-improved defense can slow Lamar Jackson with the benefit of whatever inside info they have from coordinators Jesse Minter and Greg Roman, who spent significant time on the Ravens’ staff. Is this a game the Chargers can play on their terms? What happens if this game picks up where Chargers-Bengals left off? Will Justin Herbert keep pace with Jackson in that case?

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Keefer: The Chargers-Bengals game was one of the best of the season — Herbert went wild in the first half, then Joe Burrow put together some of the best football I’ve ever seen him play in the second. The intriguing layer of the Harbaugh matchup Monday night is how Lamar Jackson bounces back from last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (his -0.21 EPA per dropback and 66.1 passer rating were season lows). Jackson typically torches teams outside the AFC North, and a statement win Monday against an elite defense — the Chargers lead the league in scoring defense at 14.2 allowed per game — would push him right back in front of the MVP race.

It’s time for the biweekly NFC West temperature check. The Los Angeles Rams (5-5) host a hot Philadelphia Eagles team Sunday night. The San Francisco 49ers (5-5) are on the road against the Green Bay Packers. The Cardinals (6-4) and Seattle Seahawks (5-5) meet. Which team is in the best position to win the division?

Howe: I liked the Cardinals as a fun surprise team this season, but I didn’t anticipate they’d be a serious division threat, even if injuries among their opponents are a big reason. I’ll stick with the Cardinals because they’re playing the best and continue to get better. I do like the Seahawks and think they’re neck and neck with Arizona, so their two meetings in the next three weeks could very well tell the story in this division race. Seattle needs to focus more on the run game, though, and the O-line injuries have been problematic. The Niners still have the highest ceiling in the division, but they’ve been giving away too many games and I’m not ready to assume that pattern is about to magically break. The Rams have been too inconsistent, although I can’t rule out Matthew Stafford’s flipping a switch and keeping them in the mix.


Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals could be one of the league’s surprise teams at 6-4 and atop the NFC West. (Stacy Revere / Getty Images)

Sando: The Athletic’s model gives the Cardinals a 58 percent chance of winning the division, followed by the Rams (23 percent), the 49ers (12 percent) and the Seahawks (8 percent). Is it really that lopsided? I see this division coming down to the final week, when San Francisco visits Arizona and the Rams visit Seattle. All four teams could have a shot at 9-8. Any team getting to 10-7 probably will win the division. I don’t see any team with a big advantage, but I question whether the 49ers can stay healthy enough to prevail.

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Keefer: The Cardinals are playing the best of any team in the division, and as Jeff noted, these two meetings with the Seahawks could end up deciding the NFC West title. (San Francisco and L.A. have been too inconsistent.) But critical this time of year are the teams that are showing tangible signs of improvement, and the Cardinals fit the bill: Arizona has won four straight, including its last two by a combined 45 points. In three of those wins the defense allowed less than 16 points. On offense, Kyler Murray has been lighting it up. By mid-January, I like the Cardinals to win their first division title since 2015.

(Top photo of Bo Nix: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)

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