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This Cryptocurrency Could Soar by 23,000% Over the Next 2 Decades, According to MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor

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This Cryptocurrency Could Soar by 23,000% Over the Next 2 Decades, According to MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor

Although Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is sitting as of this writing almost 25% below its all-time high of $73,750 reached earlier this year, there are plenty of bullish crypto investors who are still convinced that Bitcoin will skyrocket over the long run. Among them is Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), who recently doubled down on his prediction that a single Bitcoin would be worth $13 million by the year 2045.

At last report, MicroStrategy owned 226,500 Bitcoins with a market value around $14 billion. It touts itself as “the largest corporate holder of bitcoin and the world’s first bitcoin development company.” Bloomberg reported last month that Saylor himself owns about $1 billion worth of Bitcoins.

Based on Bitcoin’s recent price of $55,000, a $13 million target represents an astronomical 23,000% return if you buy today and hold for the next two decades. Obviously, a lot has to happen for that to become a reality. Let’s take a closer look.

Bitcoin’s long-run performance

Yes, seeing a $13 million price tag for Bitcoin can induce a fair amount of sticker shock. But if you dig into the numbers, the math actually starts to make sense. And a lot of that has to do with the compounding power of money. If any asset is allowed to compound in value for a long period of time, the results have the potential to shock.

In the case of Bitcoin, it would require a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% for the magic to happen and it to jump from $55,000 now to $13 million in 2045. In other words, if Bitcoin can increase in value by 30% per year, for the next 21 years, an upfront investment of $55,000 would turn into $13 million.

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And, while it may be unlikely, a CAGR of 30% for Bitcoin is not out of the question. From 2011 to 2021, Bitcoin delivered annualized returns of 230% per year. And Bitcoin returned approximately 150% in 2023. Already this year, Bitcoin is up more than 30%. Over the past five years, the only blemish was 2022, when Bitcoin fell nearly 65%.

So what can investors realistically expect? In an interview this month with CNBC, Saylor predicted that during the next two decades, Bitcoin’s annual return would steadily fall over time, from about 44% a year to 40% to 35% to 30% to 25% to… well, you get the idea. The final long-run number for Bitcoin, says Saylor, would be the annual return of the S&P 500 plus an extra 8% to compensate investors for the extra risk.

At some point, of course, it’s worth taking a moment to ponder what a price tag of $13 million really means for Bitcoin. Based on its current circulating coin supply of 20 million, that implies a future market cap of $260 trillion. That dwarfs the value of any tech stock today, and in fact, it dwarfs the value of the entire S&P 500, which today sits at around $45 trillion.

Even if we assume that U.S. stocks will grow at a rate of 10% per year over the next 20 years, a price tag of $13 million still implies that Bitcoin would represent an astonishing amount of the world’s wealth in the year 2045. For that reason alone, it’s worth having a healthy dose of skepticism about Bitcoin’s future price trajectory.

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Bitcoin as an asset class

For much of its history, Bitcoin has been uncorrelated with any major asset class, and that has made it very unique from a risk diversification perspective. Quite simply, Bitcoin can zig when other assets zag.

Artist's rendering of Bitcoin logo in front of the Wall Street street sign.

Image source: Getty Images.

Thus, Bitcoin is growing in favor with billionaire hedge fund managers, who increasingly view it as a way to hedge risk. In some cases, that risk might be economic, such as the risk of inflation. In other cases, that risk might be geopolitical. In the CNBC interview, Saylor uses the example of missile strikes to illustrate this point. What do you do as an investor if you wake up one morning and hear that there have been missile strikes somewhere in the world?

Until recently, the answer to that question might have been: Buy gold. But there is growing popularity in the notion that Bitcoin is “digital gold.” Some investors are buying Bitcoin, and not gold, as a hedge against worst-case scenarios popping off around the world. It sounds surprising, but Bitcoin might actually be a safe haven asset.

All of which is to say: The more that Bitcoin can cement its status as a valuable, stand-alone asset class, the more likely it is that its price could skyrocket during the next two decades. That’s because investors will be willing to allocate a greater and greater share of their portfolio to it.

Risk factors

Of course, there are several factors that could derail Bitcoin during the next two decades. For example, if Bitcoin’s annual returns decline significantly for an extended period of time, investors might just decide that they can get the same type of return, while taking on much less risk, simply by buying hot tech stocks.

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Or, even worse, the U.S. political and regulatory establishment might shift against Bitcoin. For example, there might be a crackdown on Bitcoin mining, given the concerns over its environmental impact. Or, regulators in the U.S. might decide to ban Bitcoin entirely, as they’ve done in China and other nations. At the very least, the government could make things difficult for Bitcoin owners simply by making a few quick changes to the U.S. tax code.

That said, I remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. As long as it continues to deliver anywhere close to the type of performance that it has delivered over the past decade, investors are likely to be very pleased at Bitcoin’s valuation 20 years from now, even if it’s nowhere close to the astronomically high valuation predicted by Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy.

Should you invest $1,000 in Bitcoin right now?

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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

This Cryptocurrency Could Soar by 23,000% Over the Next 2 Decades, According to MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor was originally published by The Motley Fool

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Cryptocurrency exchange network accused of helping Russia hit with sanctions

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WASHINGTON (AP) — A network of people and virtual currency exchanges associated with harboring Russian cybercrime were hit with sanctions on Thursday, in a government-wide crackdown on cybercrime that could assist Russia ahead of President Joe Biden’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

U.S. Treasury sanctioned alleged Russian hacker Sergey Ivanov and Cryptex — a St. Vincent and Grenadines registered virtual currency exchange operating in Russia. Virtual currency exchanges allow people and businesses to trade cryptocurrencies for other assets, such as conventional dollars or other digital currencies.

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Treasury alleges that Ivanov has laundered hundreds of millions of dollars worth of virtual currency for cyber criminals and darknet marketplace vendors for the last 20 years, including for Timur Shakhmametov, who allegedly created an online marketplace for stolen credit card data and compromised IDs called Joker’s Stash. Ivanov laundered the proceeds from Joker’s Stash, Treasury says.

The State Department is offering a $10 million reward for information that would lead to the arrest and possible conviction of the two men and the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Virginia has unsealed an indictment against them.

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Biden said in a statement announcing the sanctions Thursday that the U.S. “will continue to raise the costs on Russia for its war in Ukraine and to deprive the Russian defense industrial base of resources.”

He meets with Zelenskyy Thursday to announce a surge in security assistance for Ukraine and other actions meant to assist the war-torn country as Russia continues to invade.

State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller said, “We will continue to use all our tools and authorities to deter and expose these money laundering networks and impose cost on the cyber criminals and support networks. We reiterate our call that Russia must take concrete steps to prevent cyber criminals from freely operating in its jurisdiction.”

U.S officials have taken several actions against Russian cybercriminals since the start of the invasion in February 2022.

Earlier this year, Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned 13 firms — five of which are owned by an already sanctioned person — and two people who have all either helped build or operate blockchain-based services for, or enabled virtual currency payments in, the Russian financial sector, “thus enabling potential sanctions evasion,” according to U.S. Treasury.

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Cryptocurrency Prices on September 26: BTC Backtracks To $63K, But WLD Soars 11%

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Cryptocurrency Prices on September 26: BTC Backtracks To K, But WLD Soars 11%

The cryptocurrency prices on September 26 have again raised investor concerns globally as Bitcoin and major altcoins plunged into the red territory. Notably, even the global crypto market cap slipped 1.92% to $2.22 trillion today. Further, the total market volume fell 12.5% to $65.06 billion. However, Worldcoin (WLD) emerged among the day’s top gainers, defying the broader market sentiment.

Here’s a brief report on some of the leading cryptocurrencies by market cap and their price movements today, September 26.

Cryptocurrency Prices Today: BTC, ETH, SOL, & XRP In The Red

While BTC waned to the $63K price level today, ETH price marked a slip below $2,600. Simultaneously, SOL, XRP, and DOGE prices slipped slightly over 1% today, whereas SHIB too defied the broader market trend. So, let’s take a closer look at major coins’ price action today.

Bitcoin Price Today

BTC price traded at $63,450 at press time, up nearly 1.4% in the past 24 hours. The coin’s intraday low and high were $62,669.27 and $64,462.94, underscoring a highly volatile movement for the asset. This volatility comes despite $105.84 million inflows spot Bitcoin ETFs as of September 25. Besides, despite BlackRock’s additional BTC buys, the coin’s trade is turbulent.

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Bitcoin’s market cap rested at $1.25 trillion today. Simultaneously, the flagship crypto’s dominance saw a 0.02% decline to 56.24%.

Ethereum Price Today

Whilst, ETH price chart illustrated a nearly 1% dip in value to reach $2,604. The coin’s intraday low and high were recorded as $2,557.72 and $2,646.79, underlining a brief slip below $2,600.

Simultaneously, ETH price dropped despite $43.23 million inflows in spot Ethereum ETFs as of September 25, per Soso value data. Ethereum’s market cap rested at $313.19 billion today. Despite today’s turbulence, the ETH funding rate sparked further bullishness recently, hinting that phenomenal gains loom for the token.

Solana Price Today

The crypto SOL fell over 1.5% in the past 24 hours and is currently trading at $149.18. The coin’s intraday low and high were recorded as $146.87 and $152.89, respectively. Solana’s market cap rested at $69.93 billion today.

XRP Price Today

Simultaneously, against the backdrop of colossal Ripple whale transactions, XRP price today slipped nearly 2% to $0.5819. Its intraday low and high were recorded as $0.5769 and $0.5935, respectively. XRP’s market cap rested at $32.87 billion today.

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Meme Coins’ Performance

Dogecoin (DOGE) price fell nearly 1.5% over the past day to reach $0.1089. However, Shiba Inu gained nearly 4% from yesterday to reach $0.00001556.

PEPE and FLOKI prices slipped 3%-4% today, whereas WIF price gained nearly 2%.

Top Cryptocurrency Gainers Prices Today

Worldcoin

WLD price surged 11% in the past 24 hours and is currently trading at $2.06. The crypto’s intraday low and high were recorded as $1.80 and $2.17, respectively.

Injective

INJ price pumped over 4% today and is currently trading at $22.06. The token’s intraday low and high were recorded as $21.25 and $22.86, respectively.

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UNUS SED LEO

LEO price jumped 3% over the past day to reach $5.95. The coin’s intraday low and high were $5.68 and $6.01, respectively.

Top Cryptocurrency Losers Prices Today

Fantom

FTM price dipped 7% over the past day to $0.6512. The crypto’s 24-hour low and peak were $0.6416 and $0.6886, respectively.

Conflux

CFX price followed, dropping 7% over the past day to reach $0.1572. The coin’s intraday low and high were $0.1522 and $0.1669, respectively.

Stacks

STX price fell 6% over the past day to reach $1.92. The crypto’s 24-hour low and high were $1.85 and $2.04, respectively.

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Besides, the hourly charts sparked further investor speculations on the cryptocurrency prices today, as BTC and ETH gained 0.11% and 0.14%, respectively. Market watchers continue to extensively eye the coins for future price action shifts.

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CoinGape comprises an experienced team of native content writers and editors working round the clock to cover news globally and present news as a fact rather than an opinion. CoinGape writers and reporters contributed to this article.

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Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.

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German Law Enforcement Seizes Russian No KYC Exchanges – Chainalysis

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German Law Enforcement Seizes Russian No KYC Exchanges – Chainalysis

On September 19, 2024, the German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized the infrastructure of 47 Russian-language no-KYC (Know Your Customer) cryptocurrency exchanges. Dubbed “Operation Final Exchange,” the takedown stands out not only for its breadth, but also for the light it has shined on the central role instant-swap style no-KYC exchanges play in facilitating on-chain cybercrime.

As their name suggests, no-KYC exchanges have no known process for collecting customer information before allowing any level of deposit or withdrawal. They do not require a name, phone number, or email address, and make no attempt to verify this information prior to permitting transactions. As such, these services allow a range of cybercriminals to abuse their services without KYC controls to identify or disrupt illicit activity. The BKA’s Operation Final Exchange landing page calls out ransomware affiliates, botnet operators, and darknet vendors as users of the 47 targeted exchanges. Beyond that, these services offered fiat on- and off-ramping for sanctioned Russian banks, creating an avenue for sanctions evasion.

Below, we’ll dive into these exchanges’ on-chain activity, explore their nexus to sanctioned Russian banks, and discuss the disruption’s implications.

Who are these 47 No KYC Exchanges?  

Our data reveals interesting patterns about the services targeted by the BKA, with robust direct and indirect exposure to various illicit services. At least seventeen of the exchanges saw a month of more than 50% of direct inflows from illicit sources. At least twelve saw a month where more than 30% of direct inflows were from darknet marketplaces (DNMs). At least six saw at least one month where stolen funds comprised more than 30% of total direct inflows. At least five had at least one month where more than 30% of indirect inflows were from sanctioned entities. 

This exposure demonstrates that for many of these services, laundering illicit funds was a substantial part of their businesses. Indeed, as depicted in the below Chainalysis Crypto Investigations graph, the top ten services targeted by the BKA transacted with a broad array of illicit services, including, but not limited to, sanctioned entities, ransomware actors, DNMs, and darkweb escrow and breached data brokers. 

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The chart below shows the quarterly inflows to the top ten exchanges taken down by the BKA. These services received value from a variety of sources, including periods of significant inflows from drug-related DNMs, online pharmacies, malicious cybercriminals such as ransomware gangs, and funds stolen in heists and scams.

There is also a notable increase over time in the proportion of inflows from legitimate sources, notably centralized exchanges. While this change to the composition of inflows might in other circumstances suggest that the services were in the process of cleaning up their platforms, the reality is likely more complicated. In this case, the increased inflows from otherwise legitimate sources most likely represent the growing use of these services for sanctions evasion on the part of Russian nationals, who are likely trying to leverage these no KYC exchanges to evade sanctions on Russian banks. 

How do these services work?

These services operate as instant-swap style services, in which users, without providing any personal information or going through any verification process, can swap from one currency to another. The offerings include crypto-to-crypto and fiat-to-crypto swaps, allowing users to instantly exchange popular cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, or to connect their bank account to on-/off-ramp fiat to crypto instantly.

As with other categories of the illicit crypto ecosystem, we have observed that no KYC exchanges, particularly those targeted by the BKA, often have overlapping or similar on-chain infrastructure, and in some instances even share off-chain networks, such as website shells, employees and administrators, physical locations, and ownership structures, to name a few. More often than not, these websites have no affiliated company incorporation, registration, phone numbers, physical addresses, or any indicator of jurisdictional operation. Unlike other high-risk and illicit services, most of these services do not have a social media presence, instead offering users the ability to interface with a bot on their homepages. Despite using servers based in Germany, these services cater primarily to a Russian clientele, as suggested by their default language settings in Russian and information on banking services for fiat transactions provided by sanctioned Russian banks, such as Sberbank. 

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Connectivity to sanctioned Russian banks

Many of the 47 no KYC exchanges were Russian-language platforms offering fiat-to-crypto and crypto-to-crypto instant exchange services. As we covered in our recent analysis of Russia’s new cryptocurrency legislation, Russian-language instant exchangers can be exploited to quickly move fiat currency from sanctioned Russian banks to specified crypto wallets, enabling entities to evade sanctions. Given the dramatically increased sanctions pressure on Russian banks following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, instant exchangers have emerged as a convenient way to on- or off-ramp funds for sanctioned banks. Of the 47 no KYC exchanges targeted in Operation Final Exchange, all that we have identified on-chain accepted on- and off-ramping with sanctioned Russian banks.

Breadth of disruption likely to generate actionable inroads 

Most of the exchanges targeted by BKA have been active since 2021 or before, and the top three in terms of transactions processed – Xchange.cash, 60cek.org, and Bankcomat.com – have been active since 2016 or before, according to the Operation Final Exchange landing page. The longevity of these services suggests a substantial portion of customers affected will need to establish alternative financial facilitation and laundering pathways.

The disruption’s impact is likely to extend far beyond the no KYC exchanges targeted. As the BKA stated, it is now in possession of these exchanges’ development, production, and backup servers, as well as transactional details, registration data, and IP addresses. This data will likely be instrumental in generating follow-on leads for the BKA and key international law enforcement partners in the months to come. We continue to track this phenomenon closely and will flag new no KYC exchanges that emerge as key players in this space. 

This website contains links to third-party sites that are not under the control of Chainalysis, Inc. or its affiliates (collectively “Chainalysis”). Access to such information does not imply association with, endorsement of, approval of, or recommendation by Chainalysis of the site or its operators, and Chainalysis is not responsible for the products, services, or other content hosted therein. 

This material is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide legal, tax, financial, or investment advice. Recipients should consult their own advisors before making these types of decisions. Chainalysis has no responsibility or liability for any decision made or any other acts or omissions in connection with Recipient’s use of this material.

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Chainalysis does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, suitability or validity of the information in this report and will not be responsible for any claim attributable to errors, omissions, or other inaccuracies of any part of such material.

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