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Those rebuilding after L.A. fires will likely face higher lumber prices as Trump tariffs loom

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Those rebuilding after L.A. fires will likely face higher lumber prices as Trump tariffs loom

Devastating, often tragic as the Los Angeles-area fires have been, rebuilding could bring nightmares all its own, including murky insurance rules, material shortages and potentially higher costs for such items as lumber and bathtubs.

In terms of economic upheaval, it could be the construction industry equivalent of what the COVID-19 pandemic did to the economy just a few years ago.

The Trump administration’s plans to slap new tariffs on imports from many countries including Canada — by far the biggest foreign supplier of lumber for the U.S. market — could set off a new wave of inflation in home building.

Lumber is the single biggest component of home-building materials, accounting for about 15% of overall home construction costs. Southern California builders use wood for framing homes that’s sourced mostly from Canada and the Pacific Northwest.

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And the last couple of years have left the lumber industry ill-prepared for a big surge in demand. More than a dozen sawmills have closed in Canada and Oregon, Washington and Northern California as logging operations have struggled with a shortage of skilled labor and higher costs for energy, freight and other inputs.

Additionally, prices of lumber and other building materials slumped after a renovation project surge and the pandemic eased; the lower prices left many suppliers in shaky financial condition.

The L.A.-area fires have destroyed or damaged more than 14,000 structures. Many of the properties affected are single-family homes, causing severe problems for displaced people in a region that was already struggling with a shortage of houses and apartments — and the labor to build them.

Based on a rough estimate of 10,000 homes that may need to be rebuilt, that would be about double the number of new homes built annually in L.A. County in recent years.

“Adding a bunch of demand that’s unexpected and very pressing is very challenging for this market,” said Scott Wild, senior vice president at John Burns Research & Consulting in Irvine.

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Just how soon large-scale rebuilding begins will depend heavily on insurance settlements — though some homeowners aren’t covered or are underinsured — and how long it will take to clear debris, restore utilities and get permits. State and local leaders have ordered a streamlining of environmental reviews, permitting processes and other efforts to speed up the cleanup and other tasks to begin rebuilding.

In addition, coordinated efforts may be needed to help free up supplies and keep a lid on prices, some industry executives say.

“People whose homes burnt down — they’re rebuilding their lives,” said Scott Laurie, chief executive at Olson Co., which builds homes in L.A. and Orange counties. “I would hope there’s a mechanism to control the costs. It absolutely needs to be done.”

Because most of the people affected are individual homeowners, the demand for construction may not pile up all at once, but instead be staggered over multiple months.

That will help ease the pressures.

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Still, rebuilding 10,000 homes in the region would require, at minimum, an additional 5,000-plus truckloads of lumber, according to estimates by Kyle Little, chief operating officer at Sherwood Lumber, a national supplier that has significant business in California. Little said he sees a “tremendous increase” in demand for the varieties of Douglas fir wood that are typically used for home building in California.

“I do believe the volatility could be reminiscent of what we experienced in COVID,” said Little, who’s chair of the North American Wholesale Lumber Assn.

More domestic lumber has been produced in recent years in the Carolinas and the South, but Southern yellow pine is not considered as structurally sound for framing as Douglas and varieties of spruce and other pine trees logged in Canada and the Pacific Northwest.

Little and other experts estimate that lumber prices could jump 25% to 40%. And that’s even before any additional tariff increases. In the last six months, average lumber prices have ranged from $475 to $625 per thousand board feet, about one-third of the peak in 2021.

Donald Trump has threatened to add 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. Duties on lumber from Canada had risen to 14.4% in the summer last year after the expiration of a U.S.-Canada agreement on softwood lumber.

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And a review of anti-dumping could further double the duties this year. If Trump tacks on 25% tariffs on top of that, import levies on Canadian lumber overall could top 50%.

The U.S. consumes roughly 50 billion board feet of wood a year, most of that for new residential construction. About 30% of that is imported, the vast majority from Canada, said Jesse Wade, an economist at the National Assn. of Home Builders.

Europe’s share of lumber imports has increased in recent years, but Trump has talked about applying 10% to 20% tariffs on goods from all countries. The construction industry also imports cement from Canada and Mexico for concrete used in homebuilding.

Frank Addiego, president of All Bay Mill & Lumber Co. in Napa County, says it’s anybody’s guess just what Trump will do on tariffs: whether it’s a tactic to win trade and other concessions or a long-term move to boost domestic production. But if Trump goes through with tariff increases on lumber, he said, it will “absolutely add” to the supply crunch.

Addiego recalled that lumber prices jumped about 50% over a few quarters following the 2017 Tubbs fire, which destroyed more than 5,600 structures in Napa and Sonoma counties.

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At the same time, he noted that it’s also possible that lumber prices won’t go up much at all if Trump’s tariffs cause a slowdown in the economy and end up depressing homebuilding.

“The tariffs are a serious illness,” Addiego said, adding that he expects some builders to try to offset potential price spikes by locking in purchase contracts earlier.

Steve Kalmbach, president and chief operating officer at Thomas James Homes, a single-lot homebuilder based in Aliso Viejo, said he’s starting to get calls from owners of fire-damaged homes, with some saying they want to rebuild ASAP and others saying they aren’t sure what to do.

“We’re just at an information gathering stage at this point,” said Kalmbach, whose firm has built more than 50 homes in Pacific Palisades over the last decade. He said it was too early to say what the rebuilding would mean for supply and prices, but said the fires certainly aren’t what the market needed.

“Housing is challenged right now, whatever the issue. Everyone is trying to source the materials and labor,” he said.

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iPic movie theater chain files for bankruptcy

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iPic movie theater chain files for bankruptcy

The iPic dine-in movie theater chain has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and intends to pursue a sale of its assets, citing the difficult post-pandemic theatrical market.

The Boca Raton, Fla.-based company has 13 locations across the U.S., including in Pasadena and Westwood, according to a Feb. 25 filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of Florida, West Palm Beach division.

As part of the bankruptcy process, the Pasadena and Westwood theaters will be permanently closed, according to WARN Act notices filed with the state of California’s Employment Development Department.

The company came to its conclusion after “exploring a range of possible alternatives,” iPic Chief Executive Patrick Quinn said in a statement.

“We are committed to continuing our business operations with minimal impact throughout the process and will endeavor to serve our customers with the high standard of care they have come to expect from us,” he said.

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The company will keep its current management to maintain day-to-day operations while it goes through the bankruptcy process, iPic said in the statement. The last day of employment for workers in its Pasadena and Westwood locations is April 28, according to a state WARN Act notice. The chain has 1,300 full- and part-time employees, with 193 workers in California.

The theatrical business, including the exhibition industry, still has not recovered from the pandemic’s effect on consumer behavior. Last year, overall box office revenue in the U.S. and Canada totaled about $8.8 billion, up just 1.6% compared with 2024. Even more troubling is that industry revenue in 2025 was down 22.1% compared with pre-pandemic 2019’s totals.

IPic noted those trends in its bankruptcy filing, describing the changes in consumer behavior as “lasting” and blaming the rise of streaming for “fundamentally” altering the movie theater business.

“These industry shifts have directly reduced box office revenues and related ancillary revenues, including food and beverage sales,” the company stated in its bankruptcy filing.

IPic also attributed its decision to rising rents and labor costs.

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The company estimated it owed about $141,000 in taxes and about $2.7 million in total unsecured claims. The company’s assets were valued at about $155.3 million, the majority of which coming from theater equipment and furniture. Its liabilities totaled $113.9 million.

The chain had previously filed for bankruptcy protection in 2019.

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Startup Varda Space Industries snags former Mattel plant in El Segundo

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Startup Varda Space Industries snags former Mattel plant in El Segundo

In an expansion of its business of processing pharmaceuticals in Earth’s orbit, Varda Space Industries is renting a large El Segundo plant where toy manufacturer Mattel used to design Hot Wheels and Barbie dolls.

The plant in El Segundo’s aerospace corridor will be an extension of Varda Space Industries’ headquarters in a much smaller building on nearby Aviation Boulevard.

Varda will occupy a 205,443-square-foot industrial and office campus at 2031 E. Mariposa Ave., which will give it additional capacity to manufacture spacecraft at scale, the company said.

Originally built in the 1940s as an aircraft facility, the complex has a history as part of aerospace and defense industries that have long shaped the South Bay and is near a host of major defense and space contractors. It is also close to Los Angeles Air Force Base, headquarters to the Space Systems Command.

Workers test AstroForge’s Odin asteroid probe, which was lost in space after launch this year.

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(Varda Space Industries)

Varda is one of a new generation of aerospace startups that have flourished in Southern California and the South Bay over the last several years, particularly in El Segundo, often with ties to SpaceX.

Elon Musk’s company, founded in 2002 in El Segundo, has revolutionized the industry with reusable rockets that have radically lowered the cost of lifting payloads into space. Though it has moved its headquarters to Texas, SpaceX retains large-scale operations in Hawthorne.

Varda co-founder and Chief Executive Will Bruey is a former SpaceX avionics engineer, and the company’s spacecraft are launched on SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9 rockets from Vandenberg Space Force Base in Santa Barbara County.

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Varda makes automated labs that look like cylindrical desktop speakers, which it sends into orbit in capsules and satellite platforms it also builds. There, in microgravity, the miniature labs grow molecular crystals that are purer than those produced in Earth’s gravity for use in pharmaceuticals.

It has contracts with drug companies and also the military, which tests technology at hypersonic speeds as the capsules return to Earth.

Its fifth capsule was launched in November and returned to Earth in late January; its next mission is set in the coming weeks. Varda has more than 10 missions scheduled on Falcon 9s through 2028.

For the last several decades, the Mariposa Avenue property served as the research and development center for Mattel Toys. El Segundo has also long been a center for the toy industry as companies like to set up shop in the shadow of Mattel.

The Mattel facility “has always been an exceptional property with a legacy tied to aerospace innovation, and leasing to Varda Space Industries feels like a natural continuation of that story,” said Michael Woods, a partner at GPI Cos., which owns the property.

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“We are proud to support a company that is genuinely pushing the boundaries of what’s possible, and are excited to watch Varda grow and thrive here in El Segundo,” Woods said.

As one of the country’s most active hubs of aerospace and defense innovation, El Segundo has seen its industrial property vacancy fall to 3.4% on demand from space companies, government contractors and technology startups, real estate brokerage CBRE said.

Successful startups often have to leave the neighborhood when they want to expand, real estate broker Bob Haley of CBRE said. The 9-acre Mattel facility was big enough to keep Varda in the city.

Last year, Varda subleased about 55,000 square feet of lab space from alternative protein company Beyond Meat at 888 Douglas St. in El Segundo, which it started moving into in June.

Varda will get the keys to its new building in December and spend four to eight months building production and assembly facilities as it ramps up operations. By the end of next year, it expects to have constructed 10 more spacecraft.

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In the future, Varda could consolidate offices there, given its size. Currently, though, the plan is to retain all properties, creating a campus of three buildings within a mile of one another that are served by the company’s transportation services, Chief Operating Officer Jonathan Barr said.

“We already have Varda-branded shuttles running up and down Aviation Boulevard,” he said.

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How Iran War Is Threatening Global Oil and Gas Supplies

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How Iran War Is Threatening Global Oil and Gas Supplies

Ships near the Strait of Hormuz before and after attacks began

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Note: Times shown are in Iran Standard Time. Some ships in the region transmit false positions and others sometimes stop broadcasting their locations, and may not be reflected in the animation. Ships with sparse location data are shown in a lighter shade. Source: Kpler and Spire.

Every day, around 80 oil and gas tankers typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast that carries a fifth of the world’s oil and a significant amount of natural gas.

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On Monday, just two oil and gas tankers appear to have crossed the strait, according to a New York Times analysis of shipping activity from Kpler, an industry data firm. Since then, one tanker passed through.

“It’s a de facto closure,” said Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners, a Houston financial services firm. “You’ve got a significant number of vessels on either side of the strait but no one is willing to go through.”

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Tankers have been staying away from Hormuz since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that began on Saturday. A prolonged conflict could ripple broadly across the global economy, threatening the energy supplies of countries halfway around the world and stoking inflation.

International oil prices have climbed 12 percent since the fighting began, trading Tuesday around $81 a barrel, and natural gas prices have surged in Europe and in Asia.

A senior Iranian military official threatened on Monday to “set on fire” any ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels in the region have already come under attack. Several oil and gas facilities have also been struck or affected by nearby shelling, though the damage did not initially appear to be catastrophic.

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Where ships and energy facilities have been damaged

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Note: Damage as of 2 p.m. Eastern time Tuesday. Source: Kpler, Kuwait National Petroleum Company, Saudi Arabian Ministry of Energy, Planet Labs, QatarEnergy, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations and Vanguard Tech.

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A fire broke out Tuesday at a major energy hub in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, from the falling debris of a downed drone, the authorities said. On Monday, Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas, or fuel that has been cooled so that it can be transported on ships, after attacks on its facilities.

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Facilities at Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia were on fire on Monday after two Iranian drones were intercepted, according to Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy, causing fragments to fall. Vantor

The sharp reduction in tanker traffic is reducing the supply of oil and gas to world markets, pushing up prices for both commodities. And the longer that ships stay away from the Strait of Hormuz, the less oil and gas get out to the world, which could raise prices even more.

Shipping companies have paused their tankers to protect their crew and cargo, and because insurance companies are charging significantly more to cover vessels in the conflict area.

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On Tuesday, President Trump said that “if necessary,” the U.S. Navy would begin escorting tankers through the strait. He also said a U.S. government agency would begin offering “political risk insurance” to shipping lines in the area.

In addition to tankers, other large vessels regularly go through the strait, including car carriers and container ships. In normal conditions, nearly 160 make the trip each day.

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Some ships in the region turn off the devices that broadcast their positions, while others transmit false locations — making it hard to give a full picture of the traffic in the strait.

The Shiva is a small oil tanker that has repeatedly faked its location, according to TankerTrackers.com, which tracks global oil shipments. It is suspected of carrying sanctioned Iranian oil, according to Kpler. The Shiva was one of the two tankers that crossed the strait on Monday.

The oil and gas that typically move through the strait come from big producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and United Arab Emirates, and are exported around the world.

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Where tankers moving through the Strait have traveled

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Note: Tanker paths are since Jan. 1 and include all tankers and gas carriers. Source: Kpler and Spire.

In 2024, more than 80 percent of the oil and gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asia. China, India, Japan and South Korea were the top importers, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

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Countries have energy stockpiles that could last them into the coming months, but a continued shutdown of the strait could damage their economies.

Several big disruptions have roiled supply chains in recent years, but the tanker standstill in the Strait of Hormuz could have an outsize impact.

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