Business
Column: The rise of Kamala Harris shows that our political 'polarization' was always a myth
A funny thing happened after July 21, when President Biden ended his campaign for reelection. It’s not merely that Kamala Harris emerged to take his place; it’s that her campaign had overcome the polarization of American politics.
At least, that’s the reading provided by not a few political pundits. But it’s not quite true. The reality is that Harris’ rise as a leading political figure demonstrates that America was never as polarized as our commentators claimed.
I made this point nearly three years ago, in the wake of the failed recall effort against Gov. Gavin Newsom. The recall failed by a 2-to-1 vote. As i observed at the time, the commentariat persisted in viewing the result through the prism of the “polarization” theme, even though it demonstrated conclusively that in California, at least, there was broad agreement, not disagreement, about Newsom’s policies on fighting COVID, abortion and gun control.
Another four years of Donald Trump’s chaotic leadership, this time focused on advancing the dangerous goals of Project 2025, will hurt real, everyday people and weaken our sacred institutions.
— Letter from 200 former Republican aides endorsing Kamala Harris for president
Harris has (so far) finessed the polarization meme by making an explicit appeal to voters based on issues likely to find widespread conformity across the partisan spectrum. These include abortion rights (despite the issue’s appearance as a wedge driving Americans apart) and economic policies aimed at the middle class.
The harvest appears to be a surge in cross-party support for the Harris campaign. On Monday, more than 200 former Republican aides to presidents George W. and George H.W. Bush and Sens. Mitt Romney and John McCain endorsed Harris in an open letter, stating that “another four years of Donald Trump’s chaotic leadership, this time focused on advancing the dangerous goals of Project 2025, will hurt real, everyday people and weaken our sacred institutions.”
A dozen lawyers who served Ronald Reagan and both Bushes in the White House issued their own joint endorsement, stating, “We believe that returning former President Trump to office would threaten American democracy and undermine the rule of law in our country.”
The Harris campaign, emboldened by positive polls, is seeking to expand its presence into Sun Belt states that were either judged out of reach or leaning Republican, such as Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.
Yet it may be more accurate to view these developments not as Harris overcoming polarization, but as her exposing the shallowness of the polarization impression. Political scientists have increasingly come to the conclusion that the apparent polarization of debate in the U.S. is an artifact of where that debate has been conducted — chiefly on social media.
“At first blush, the American political landscape can seem quite bleak, in part because of heightened political polarization,” observed researchers from UC Berkeley and Columbia University in March. But they found that “the landscape of debate is distorted by social media and the salience of negativity present in high-profile spats.”
The misimpression among Americans, they wrote, fosters “a false reality about the landscape of debate which can unnecessarily undermine their hope about the future.”
The methods used by social media platforms to grab and hold users’ attention deserves much of the blame for this distortion, they asserted. “There is evidence that negative information spreads more quickly on social media and is often amplified by social media algorithms that promote or push content to the forefront of users’ pages,” they wrote.
“This negativity is exacerbated by non-human actors or ‘bots’ that often inflame online conflicts …. These factors combined suggest that negative, conflict-laden debates will flow to the top of people’s timelines.”
A similar conclusion was reached by political scientists James Druckman of the University of Rochester, Matthew Levendusky of the University of Pennsylvania and their colleagues, who found in a 2020 paper that the “hyper-partisan polarization” that defined current American politics in the 21st century was “affective polarization” — meaning that when people were asked in surveys about the party whose policies they opposed, was based on “stereotypes and media exemplars of ideologically extreme and politically engaged partisans.”
What was happening, they wrote, was that people incorrectly assumed that those extremists “comprise the majority of the other party.”
Another factor is Trump, who “is also a polarizer: he takes existing trends and pours gasoline on them,” Levendusky told me.
Still, the image of a hopelessly polarized America is belied by opinion polls and ballot results on individual issues. Nearly two-thirds of Americans feel that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, according to a survey issued in May by the Pew Research Center. That’s higher than it was in 1995.
More evidence comes from abortion-related ballot initiatives in seven states in 2022 and 2023, following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade: The pro-abortion rights position prevailed in every one, including in the red states Ohio, Kansas and Kentucky. Abortion rights measures will be on the ballot in 10 states this November, including Florida, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota.
Sizable majorities also are seen in opinion polls in favor of stricter gun laws and antipandemic measures such as masking and social distancing. COVID vaccines may be the target of obstreperous antivaccination fanatics, but most Americans have voted with their feet by walking into vaccine clinics: 81% of Americans have received at least one shot and 70% are considered fully vaccinated with multiple doses.
That includes states in which antivaccination politics reign, such as Florida, where the Republican-appointed surgeon general, Joseph Ladapo, has issued antivax recommendations so misleading that he was publicly rebuked by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration. Despite Ladapo’s antivax propaganda, 81.4% of Floridians have received at least one shot and 68.6% are considered fully vaccinated.
As for the homogenizing of the major parties’ opposing positions on matters of public concern — liberals becoming Democrats and conservatives becoming Republicans — that’s not polarization so much as what Levendusky described as “the partisan sort” in his 2009 book of the same name. Voters take their cues from the leaders of their favored party, he noted, “looking to elites who share their values to figure out where they stand on the issues.”
“People have gotten a bit more divided over time, but much less than people think,” Levendusky says. “People have sorted themselves so that Democrats are now mostly one side of the issue, and Republicans on the other. A generation ago, you had lots of pro-environment Republicans, pro-choice Republicans (and pro-life Democrats!), Democrats who were strong gun rights supporters, and so on. Now, that’s much less true.”
What is true is that the platforms of the two major parties have moved further apart; more precisely, while the Democratic Party stayed where it had been, slightly left of center, the Republican Party moved distinctly toward the extreme right.
The reason, Levendusky argued in his book, was the flow of evangelicals and other fundamentalist Christians into the Republican Party starting in the 1970s. Party leaders — the “elite,” in Levendusky’s term — moved rightward to accommodate this new, outspoken bloc; some nonfundamentalist party members followed along, but most remained centrist on economic issues and abortion rights.
This process is relatively new in American politics. During the New Deal, the most obdurate critics of Franklin Roosevelt’s policies were Democrats — Southern Democrats, to be sure, but his party members nonetheless — while among his most loyal supporters were liberal Republicans. One of the two aides who served in FDR’s Cabinet for all 12 of his years in office, Harold Ickes, was a Republican. (The other was Frances Perkins, a Democrat.) Lyndon Johnson had to trample over opposition by the Southerners in his party to get the Civil Rights and Voting Rights acts passed in the 1960s.
Just as the Republicans had a progressive wing, the Democrats had a conservative wing comprising Wall Street bankers and corporate executives such as Alfred P. Sloan, the chairman and chief executive of General Motors. Sloan and his fellow rich reactionaries established a rump anti-New Deal bloc, the American Liberty League, to lobby against FDR’s policies from inside the Democratic Party.
FDR rhetorically drummed them out of the party — their “two particular tenets,” he said, are that “you should love God and then forget your neighbor” — but they remained part of the party until the league disbanded in 1940.
In recent years, Levendusky observed, there has been a shift in both parties toward the extremes. But it’s not as pronounced as social media posters and political commentators would have it. “The majority of the electorate remain closer to the center than to the poles.”
That’s where Harris is right now, which may be the key to her placing the “polarization” ogre in its grave for good.
Business
The justices are expected to rule quickly in the case.
When the Supreme Court hears arguments on Friday over whether protecting national security requires TikTok to be sold or closed, the justices will be working in the shadow of three First Amendment precedents, all influenced by the climate of their times and by how much the justices trusted the government.
During the Cold War and in the Vietnam era, the court refused to credit the government’s assertions that national security required limiting what newspapers could publish and what Americans could read. More recently, though, the court deferred to Congress’s judgment that combating terrorism justified making some kinds of speech a crime.
The court will most likely act quickly, as TikTok faces a Jan. 19 deadline under a law enacted in April by bipartisan majorities. The law’s sponsors said the app’s parent company, ByteDance, is controlled by China and could use it to harvest Americans’ private data and to spread covert disinformation.
The court’s decision will determine the fate of a powerful and pervasive cultural phenomenon that uses a sophisticated algorithm to feed a personalized array of short videos to its 170 million users in the United States. For many of them, and particularly younger ones, TikTok has become a leading source of information and entertainment.
As in earlier cases pitting national security against free speech, the core question for the justices is whether the government’s judgments about the threat TikTok is said to pose are sufficient to overcome the nation’s commitment to free speech.
Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, told the justices that he “is second to none in his appreciation and protection of the First Amendment’s right to free speech.” But he urged them to uphold the law.
“The right to free speech enshrined in the First Amendment does not apply to a corporate agent of the Chinese Communist Party,” Mr. McConnell wrote.
Jameel Jaffer, the executive director of the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University, said that stance reflected a fundamental misunderstanding.
“It is not the government’s role to tell us which ideas are worth listening to,” he said. “It’s not the government’s role to cleanse the marketplace of ideas or information that the government disagrees with.”
The Supreme Court’s last major decision in a clash between national security and free speech was in 2010, in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project. It concerned a law that made it a crime to provide even benign assistance in the form of speech to groups said to engage in terrorism.
One plaintiff, for instance, said he wanted to help the Kurdistan Workers’ Party find peaceful ways to protect the rights of Kurds in Turkey and to bring their claims to the attention of international bodies.
When the case was argued, Elena Kagan, then the U.S. solicitor general, said courts should defer to the government’s assessments of national security threats.
“The ability of Congress and of the executive branch to regulate the relationships between Americans and foreign governments or foreign organizations has long been acknowledged by this court,” she said. (She joined the court six months later.)
The court ruled for the government by a 6-to-3 vote, accepting its expertise even after ruling that the law was subject to strict scrutiny, the most demanding form of judicial review.
“The government, when seeking to prevent imminent harms in the context of international affairs and national security, is not required to conclusively link all the pieces in the puzzle before we grant weight to its empirical conclusions,” Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. wrote for the majority.
In its Supreme Court briefs defending the law banning TikTok, the Biden administration repeatedly cited the 2010 decision.
“Congress and the executive branch determined that ByteDance’s ownership and control of TikTok pose an unacceptable threat to national security because that relationship could permit a foreign adversary government to collect intelligence on and manipulate the content received by TikTok’s American users,” Elizabeth B. Prelogar, the U.S. solicitor general, wrote, “even if those harms had not yet materialized.”
Many federal laws, she added, limit foreign ownership of companies in sensitive fields, including broadcasting, banking, nuclear facilities, undersea cables, air carriers, dams and reservoirs.
While the court led by Chief Justice Roberts was willing to defer to the government, earlier courts were more skeptical. In 1965, during the Cold War, the court struck down a law requiring people who wanted to receive foreign mail that the government said was “communist political propaganda” to say so in writing.
That decision, Lamont v. Postmaster General, had several distinctive features. It was unanimous. It was the first time the court had ever held a federal law unconstitutional under the First Amendment’s free expression clauses.
It was the first Supreme Court opinion to feature the phrase “the marketplace of ideas.” And it was the first Supreme Court decision to recognize a constitutional right to receive information.
That last idea figures in the TikTok case. “When controversies have arisen,” a brief for users of the app said, “the court has protected Americans’ right to hear foreign-influenced ideas, allowing Congress at most to require labeling of the ideas’ origin.”
Indeed, a supporting brief from the Knight First Amendment Institute said, the law banning TikTok is far more aggressive than the one limiting access to communist propaganda. “While the law in Lamont burdened Americans’ access to specific speech from abroad,” the brief said, “the act prohibits it entirely.”
Zephyr Teachout, a law professor at Fordham, said that was the wrong analysis. “Imposing foreign ownership restrictions on communications platforms is several steps removed from free speech concerns,” she wrote in a brief supporting the government, “because the regulations are wholly concerned with the firms’ ownership, not the firms’ conduct, technology or content.”
Six years after the case on mailed propaganda, the Supreme Court again rejected the invocation of national security to justify limiting speech, ruling that the Nixon administration could not stop The New York Times and The Washington Post from publishing the Pentagon Papers, a secret history of the Vietnam War. The court did so in the face of government warnings that publishing would imperil intelligence agents and peace talks.
“The word ‘security’ is a broad, vague generality whose contours should not be invoked to abrogate the fundamental law embodied in the First Amendment,” Justice Hugo Black wrote in a concurring opinion.
The American Civil Liberties Union told the justices that the law banning TikTok “is even more sweeping” than the prior restraint sought by the government in the Pentagon Papers case.
“The government has not merely forbidden particular communications or speakers on TikTok based on their content; it has banned an entire platform,” the brief said. “It is as though, in Pentagon Papers, the lower court had shut down The New York Times entirely.”
Mr. Jaffer of the Knight Institute said the key precedents point in differing directions.
“People say, well, the court routinely defers to the government in national security cases, and there is obviously some truth to that,” he said. “But in the sphere of First Amendment rights, the record is a lot more complicated.”
Business
How the devastating Los Angeles fires could deepen California's home insurance crisis
When raging wildfires tore through Pacific Palisades and other local communities this week, they not only left a path of destruction reminiscent of a World War II bombing campaign, but threatened to deepen a crisis that has already left hundreds of thousands of Californians struggling to find and keep affordable homeowners insurance.
The multiple fires from Los Angeles to the San Gabriel Valley that have burned thousands of structures since Tuesday — leading to losses that by one early estimate are well into the tens of billions of dollars — hit Southern California as insurers have been dropping customers statewide citing the increasing number and severity of wildfire-related losses.
The Palisades fire alone, which consumed more than 5,000 homes and structures, is being called the most destructive fire ever to hit the city, while the fires across the county are likely to be one of the most expensive natural disasters in U.S. history.
“It’s just an unmitigated disaster,” said Amy Bach, executive director of United Policyholders, a consumer advocacy group. “Wildfires in January? This just proves insurers’ point that the risk is so significantly increased due to climate change.”
State Farm, the state’s largest home insurer, announced in March it would not renew 72,000 property insurance policies, while Chubb and its subsidiaries stopped writing new high-value homes with higher wildfire risk — just to name two insurers that pulled back from the California market.
It’s not clear how many homeowners in Pacific Palisades and elsewhere might not have had coverage, but at least some homeowners reported that insurers had not renewed their policies before the disaster struck. Actor James Woods, who lost his home in the Palisades fire, tweeted Tuesday that “one of the major insurances companies canceled all the policies in our neighborhood about four months ago.”
State Farm last year told the Department of Insurance it would not renew 1,626 policies in Pacific Palisades when they expired, starting last July.
A spokesperson for State Farm declined to comment on the decision but said: “Our number one priority right now is the safety of our customers, agents and employees impacted by the fires and assisting our customers in the midst of this tragedy.”
The situation has left many homeowners in neighborhoods at high wildfire risk with little choice but to seek relief from the California FAIR Plan, an insurer of last resort that sells policies with lesser coverage. The policies cover losses up to $3 million to a dwelling and its contents caused by certain hazards, such as fire, but do not include personal liability and other protection that are typically offered by private insurers.
The FAIR Plan has seen its policies grow from a little over 200,000 in September 2020 to more than 450,000 as of last September. That has roughly tripled its loss exposure to $458 billion over the same period. Pacific Palisades has one of the state’s highest concentrations of FAIR Plan policy holders, with the insurer estimating its exposure in the neighborhood at $5.89 billion.
JP Morgan analysts estimate that total L.A. County losses could be close to $50 billion, while the losses insurers will have to pay could top $20 billion. Another estimate puts the losses even higher.
Such losses could cause insurers to exit the market completely, which Tokio Marine America Insurance Co. and Trans Pacific Insurance Co. said in April they would do in not renewing 12,556 homeowners.
The losses also could prompt insurers to further raise premiums, even though some insurers already have been granted big rate hikes, such as a 34% increase Allstate received last year.
Denise Rappmund, senior analyst at Moody’s Ratings, said, “These events will continue to have widespread, negative impacts for the state’s broader insurance market — increased recovery costs will likely drive up premiums and may reduce property insurance availability.”
Should insurers further withdraw from the market, that would put additional pressure on the FAIR Plan, which is is backed by the state’s licensed insurers, such as State Farm, who have to pay claims if they exceed the FAIR Plans reserves, reinsurance and catastrophe bonding. The insurers also can assess their own policyholders surcharges in the billions of dollars to bail out the plan under regulations put in place last year by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara as part of his Sustainable Insurance Strategy to help the crippled market.
It’s unclear whether the plan will be able to absorb the losses like it did after the 2018 Camp fire that destroyed the town of Paradise in North California. That conflagration was the single costliest natural disaster in the world that year with $12.5 billion in covered losses and $16.5 billion in total losses, according to the reinsurance firm, Munich RE.
“This further complicates an already complicated and hardened market,” Lara said of the fires, in an interview with The Times.
Nonetheless, Lara’s reforms seek to ensure the FAIR Plan remains solvent and to make it more attractive for insurers to write policies in fire risky neighborhoods now being absorbed by the program. He said the regulations should encourage insurers to write more homeowners policies, and if not, they can be adjusted. “I feel very confident,” he said.
For the first time, California insurers can use so-called “catastrophe models” in setting their rates. Instead of largely relying on past claims data, the computer programs attempt to better refine an insurer’s risk by taking into account a multitude of variables that affect a property’s likelihood to suffer a loss.
The other major policy change allows insurers to charge California homeowners for the cost of reinsurance they buy from other insurers to limit their losses during huge catastrophes, such as wildfires and floods. This cost shift to policyholders is common elsewhere but a big change for California, where it will raise premiums.
In return for those concessions, insurers will have to write insurance in high-risk wildfire neighborhoods equivalent to 85% of their market share, meaning an insurer with a 10% statewide market share would have to cover 8.5% of the homes in such neighborhoods — a target they have at least two years to reach. Lara’s plan has been blasted by the Los Angeles group, Consumer Watchdog, which says the regulations lack teeth in actually requiring insurers to meet the coverage goals.
“The Sustainable Insurance Strategy is not a magic wand. It’s a set of incentives,” Bach said. “At the end of the day, insurers are always still going to analyze, ‘Are we going to make money here or not?’”
How much this week’s fires will disrupt the already troubled insurance market depends, of course, on how big a disaster they are — but all indications are that insurers will have to absorb billions of dollars of claims given the number of homes destroyed, especially in the wealthy enclave of Pacific Palisades, where the average home is valued at about $3.5 million by Zillow.
Insurance industry experts say a clearer picture on the estimated losses will only come after adjusters have time to review submitted claims.
“I think it’s going to be 45 days before we know what the true damage is,” said Max Gilman, president of California personal lines at the brokerage HUB International.
Whatever the final cost, Gilman noted that the fires came after a couple of relatively light fire seasons — though in November the Mountain fire in Ventura County scorched more than some 20,640 acres and destroyed more than 130 homes amid parched conditions. That made it at the time the third most destructive fire in Southern California in a decade.
“I think what’s currently transpiring is going to be of grave concern for the future,” he said. “I feel like we we took three steps forward to take five steps back.”
Denne Ritter, a vice president with the American Property Casualty Insurance Assn. trade group, said it is too early to assess the impact of the fires on Lara’s reforms, especially given how they are just being put in place. Only one catastrophe model has been submitted for review to regulators, while the reinsurance regulation released last month still awaits final approval by the Office of Administrative Law.
“What the insurance industry wants is a healthy market in California where we can compete for business, as we have historically. And the number one priority right now is helping our customers get the resources they need to rebuild their lives and restore their property,” she said.
However, she noted that Mercury Insurance — which recently announced it started writing insurance again in Paradise — and Farmers Insurance, which said last month it is increasing the number of new home policies it will write, have “certainly made moves indicating a more bullish approach on the market.”
Allstate also has said it will resume writing new policies once Lara’s reforms are in place and it can get rates that fully cover its costs.
But all those pronouncements came before this week’s catastrophic fires.
Business
Wildfires Will Deepen Housing Shortage in Los Angeles
Each of the homes burned in the Los Angeles fires is its own individual calamity.
Collectively, the losses — whether in the hundreds or, as is far more likely, in the thousands — will weigh on the city’s already urgent housing shortage.
Fires are still raging, and with 180,000 people under evacuation orders as of Thursday morning, the degree of displacement in the city and its surrounding areas will take time to assess. For the time being, evacuees are holing up in public shelters in Los Angeles County, with friends or family members or in hotels.
But in the coming weeks and months, people whose homes are gone will have to find more stable accommodations while they rebuild. That will not be easy in a metro area that, as of 2022, already had a shortage of about 337,000 homes, according to data from Zillow. The number of homes on the market in Los Angeles was 26 percent below prepandemic norms as of December, according to Zillow.
“One of the biggest challenges ahead will be getting people who lost their homes into permanent, long-term housing,” Victor M. Gordo, the mayor of Pasadena, said on Wednesday. Pasadena, which is battling the Eaton fire, has already lost hundreds of homes.
The area’s tight rental market is likely to become further strained as many of the thousands of displaced residents turn to rental units, while figuring out their next move. The median rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Los Angeles, as of Jan. 7, was more than $2,000, according to Zillow.
“You’re going to have a positive shock in demand, and a negative shock in supply, so this automatically means prices go up in the rental markets,” said Carles Vergara-Alert, a professor of finance at IESE Business School in Barcelona, who has studied the effects of wildfires on housing markets.
Any uptick in rental costs would affect tenants across the region, beyond those displaced by the fires, Dr. Vergara-Alert said.
Jonathan Zasloff, who lost his home in Pacific Palisades this week, teaches land use and urban policy at the University of California, Los Angeles law school, and is acutely aware of how his search for interim housing could affect the broader market.
Dr. Zasloff is staying with his brother for the time being, while a friend is putting up his wife and daughter. They evacuated their house, which they had lived in for almost 15 years, around noon on Tuesday, before the official evacuation order was issued for the area. That evening, Dr. Zasloff realized the severity of the crisis when he was watching television and saw a reporter standing on his fire-ravaged block.
His insurance agent told him it could take two to three years to rebuild his house. His family might try to find a rental in West Los Angeles near UCLA in the meantime, he said.
There aren’t many rentals in that part of the city, Dr. Zasloff said, so students and other renters could be displaced as he, and people like him who lost their homes, move in.
“It’s very possible that this event is going to cause a big increase in homelessness, even though the people who got pushed out of their homes are people of means,” he said.
California has been in the grip of an affordable housing crisis for a decade. Both state and local lawmakers have passed a raft of new laws that aim to make housing cheaper and more plentiful by making it easier to build. In Los Angeles, for instance, Mayor Karen Bass signed an executive order that streamlines permitting for projects in which 100 percent of the units are affordable. In response to state housing reforms, there has been a boom of backyard homes — called accessory dwelling units, or A.D.U.s — that homeowners often rent out for extra income and that have added to the housing stock.
Still, both the city and state remain well behind their housing production goals, and affordability has only continued to erode. The number of apartment units approved by the city of Los Angeles, for example, dipped to a 10-year low in 2024, according to data from the Los Angeles Department of Building and Safety compiled by Crosstown LA, a news site. That downturn in building permitting has raised concern about roadblocks to new housing unit creation.
“This is a place that had massive affordability challenges last week, and after this week it’s going to be that much more challenging,” said Dave Rand, a land-use lawyer at Rand Paster & Nelson in Los Angeles, who also serves on the board of directors of a statewide affordable housing organization.
After the fires are extinguished and the recovery begins, Mr. Rand said, there is hope that the common cause of rebuilding can be a catalyst for tackling affordability challenges by continuing to make it easier to build housing, particularly affordable rental housing, at a faster pace.
“This is such a devastating event that hopefully it rocks the system to the point where we can get real reform,” he said.
The Los Angeles City Council has aimed to build nearly half a million new units by 2029. But many people trying to rebuild all at once after the fires could lead to higher costs, and slow down the overall production of housing, said Jason Ward, a co-director of the center on housing and homelessness at the RAND Corporation.
A longstanding construction labor shortage in Los Angeles does not help. Andy Howard, a general contractor who has worked across the city for three decades, including in the areas affected by the fires, said many of the subcontractors he work with in the past have left California since the pandemic. And there are not enough young people entering the industry.
The fires are “going to make it worse,” Mr. Howard said. “It’s going to drive the cost up, for sure.”
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