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Column: The COVID lab-leak claim isn't just an attack on science, but a threat to public health

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Column: The COVID lab-leak claim isn't just an attack on science, but a threat to public health

Here’s an indisputable fact about the theory that COVID originated in a laboratory: Most Americans believe it to be true.

That’s important for several reasons. One is that evidence to support the theory is nonexistent. Another is that the claim itself has fomented a surge of attacks on science and scientists that threatens to drive promising researchers out of the crucial field of pandemic epidemiology.

That concern was aired in a commentary by 41 biologists, immunologists, virologists and physicians published Aug. 1 in the Journal of Virology. The journal probably isn’t in the libraries of ordinary readers, but the article’s prose is commendably clear and its conclusions eye-opening.

We now see a long-term risk of having fewer experts engaged in work that may help thwart future pandemics, and of fewer scientists willing to communicate the findings of sophisticated, fast-moving research topics that are important for global health.

— 41 scientists warn of the rise in anti-science disinformation

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“The lab leak narrative fuels mistrust in science and public health infrastructures,” the authors observe. “Scientists and public health professionals stand between us and pandemic pathogens; these individuals are essential for anticipating, discovering, and mitigating future pandemic threats. Yet, scientists and public health professionals have been harmed and their institutions have been damaged by the skewed public and political opinions stirred by continued promotion of the lab leak hypothesis in the absence of evidence.”

Before exploring further how the lab leak theory has been exploited to undermine public confidence in science and scientists, let’s examine what’s known and unknown about the origins of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID.

The so-called zoonosis hypothesis, which is favored by the vast majority of the virological and epidemiological communities, is that the virus reached humans via a spillover from the animal kingdom, probably through the unregulated wildlife trade in Southeast Asia.

“Validating the zoonotic origin is a scientific question that relies on history, epidemiology, and genomic analysis, that when taken together, support a natural spillover as the probable origin,” the Virology paper states.

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The lab leak theory holds that SARS-2 was created or manipulated into existence in the Wuhan Institute of Virology and escaped from the lab, whether deliberately or by accident.

Lab leak adherents bristle at the accusation that they’re conspiracy-mongers. Anthony Fauci, the retired director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the target of some of the most febrile attacks from the anti-science crowd, acknowledged at a June 3 House hearing that the lab leak theory was not inherently a conspiracy theory, conceptually—but that it had been exploited to support some truly crazy conspiracy narratives.

Fauci testified that he remained open to a lab leak narrative in principle, and that if any evidence for it emerged he would consider it seriously. That’s typical of most scientists, especially biologists, who are led by the infinite variability of the natural world to be innately averse to declaring anything conclusively possible or impossible.

The fact is, however, that one can’t advance the lab leak theory without positing a vast conspiracy encompassing scientists in China and the U.S., and Chinese and U.S. government officials. How else could all the evidence of a laboratory event that resulted in more than 7 million deaths worldwide be kept entirely suppressed for nearly five years? Some external hint of the event inevitably would have surfaced somewhere, somehow, by now. None has.

“Validating the lab leak hypothesis requires intelligence evidence that the WIV possessed or carried out work on a SARS-CoV-2 precursor virus prior to the pandemic,” the Virology paper asserts. “Neither the scientific community nor multiple western intelligence agencies have found such evidence.”

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Despite that, “the lab leak hypothesis receives persistent attention in the media, often without acknowledgment of the more solid evidence supporting zoonotic emergence,” the paper says. The paper doesn’t name all the media culprits, but they include the independent investigative news site ProPublica and Vanity Fair.

It does take direct aim, however, at the New York Times, which on June 3 published a column by researcher Alina Chan asserting that the “pandemic probably started in a lab.” In a 2021 book, Chan had aired almost identical arguments that were largely refuted by experts in the field. Her more recent article “misrepresents and underplays the existing scientific data supporting a zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV-2,” the Virology paper reported.

I’ve written before about the smears, physical harassment and baseless accusations of fraud and other wrongdoing that lab leak propagandists have visited upon scientists whose work has challenged their claims; similar attacks have targeted experts who have worked to debunk other anti-science narratives, including those about global warming and vaccines.

Some of these attacks have come from elected officials seeking partisan cred, such as Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). They’ve been augmented by figures such as Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

What’s notable about the Virology paper is that it represents a comprehensive and long-overdue pushback by the scientific community against such behavior. More to the point, it focuses on the consequences for public health and the scientific mission from the rise of anti-science propaganda.

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Its authors are drawn from the faculties of the state universities of Arizona, California, Connecticut, Maryland, Florida and Ohio, as well as from Johns Hopkins, Duke and the Cleveland Clinic.

“Scientists have withdrawn from social media platforms, rejected opportunities to speak in public, and taken increased safety measures to protect themselves and their families,” the authors report.

“Some have even diverted their work to less controversial and less timely topics. We now see a long-term risk of having fewer experts engaged in work that may help thwart future pandemics, and of fewer scientists willing to communicate the findings of sophisticated, fast-moving research topics that are important for global health….Most worrisome for future preparedness, the next generation of scientists has well-founded fears about entering fields related to emerging viruses and pandemic science.”

The paper revisits the scene at the public interrogation by House Republicans on June 3. “The hearing,” it observes, “was often disrupted and marked by contentious, disrespectful, and unfounded calls for Dr. Fauci to be ‘prosecuted’ and imprisoned for ‘crimes against humanity.’”

By presupposing that evidence of a lab leak has been deliberately suppressed by leading scientists and scientific administrators, its promoters have cast “unsupported blame on scientists, many of whom had warned of the potential threat of, and need for effective countermeasures to prevent, zoonotic transfer of viruses into humans,” the authors write.

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At a certain level, the popular embrace of scientific conspiracy theories is understandable. As the Swiss molecular biologist and science writer Philipp Markolin has observed, disinformation relies on myths that provide simple explanations for traumatic world events, like the pandemic, by positing that it was caused by shadowy, powerful actors. There’s never a shortage of grifters and manipulators using this public confusion to their advantage.

Thanks in part to social media, anti-science has become more virulent and widespread, the Virology authors write. Large numbers of researchers into SARS-2 have reported “harassment ranging from personal insults to threats of violence, ‘doxing,’ and personal contact,” according to the paper— of 1,281 scientists in several fields who responded to a survey by Science, 51% said they had experienced at least one form of harassment, sometimes over a period of years.

The Virology authors warn that the vilification of scientists whose research supports the zoonosis hypothesis will leave society defenseless when the next pandemic threat emerges.

“If these narratives are left unchecked, we become a society that dismisses and vilifies those with expertise and experience relevant to the challenges we face,” the authors write. “We then base decisions affecting large populations worldwide on speculation or chosen beliefs that have no grounding in evidence-based science.”

That’s what the future holds if we allow misinformation and disinformation, weaponized by sociopaths seeking financial or partisan gain, to guide our actions. We have been warned.

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Disney says man can't sue for wrongful death, cites Disney+, parks tickets arbitration clauses

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Disney says man can't sue for wrongful death, cites Disney+,  parks tickets arbitration clauses

Walt Disney Co. is asking a Florida state court to toss a wrongful death lawsuit because the plaintiff agreed to terms and conditions mandating arbitration when he signed up for Disney+ and when he purchased park tickets.

The response comes after plaintiff Jeffrey Piccolo sued Disney in February, alleging that his wife died from a severe allergic reaction after dining at a restaurant at Walt Disney World in Orlando.

During a trip to the Disney Springs shopping complex in October 2023, Piccolo and his wife, Kanokporn Tangsuan, allegedly asked staff multiple times at the Raglan Road restaurant if the food Tangsuan ordered had dairy or nuts, which she was allergic to, according to the lawsuit. The couple was assured it did not, the lawsuit said.

But less than an hour after their meal, Tangsuan started having difficulty breathing and collapsed; she was taken to a hospital, where she later died, the lawsuit said.

However, Disney said Piccolo agreed to binding arbitration in “all disputes including those involving The Walt Disney Co. or its affiliates” when he signed up for a Disney+ account in November 2019, according to the company’s response filed in May.

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The company said he agreed to those terms and conditions again when he purchased Disney World tickets on behalf of himself and his wife. Disney said the binding arbitration clause for the tickets applies to anyone he bought tickets for, according to the response.

In a response to Disney’s filing, Piccolo’s attorneys rebutted the company’s arguments, saying Disney had essentially waived its alleged right to arbitration when it participated in the lawsuit by requesting copies of documents.

Piccolo’s lawyers also said his wife’s estate, which did not exist at the time because she was still alive, was not a signatory to any alleged arbitration agreement, according to the filing, which entered into court record earlier this month.

“A valid agreement to arbitrate does not exist because the arbitration clauses upon which [Walt Disney Parks and Resorts] rely are unconscionable,” the filing said.

Representatives for Disney and Piccolo did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

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Piccolo is seeking at least $50,000 in damages, not including costs and post-judgment interest.

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'It Ends With Us' movie banned in Qatar for kissing scenes

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'It Ends With Us' movie banned in Qatar for kissing scenes

Sony Pictures’ hit film adaptation of “It Ends With Us” has been prohibited from screening in Qatar, the Los Angeles Times confirmed Monday.

The country’s censorship committee rejected the PG-13 movie over kissing scenes, according to a person with knowledge of the matter who was not authorized to comment.

Films that have previously been banned in Qatar include “Eternals,” “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness,” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” “Lightyear” and “West Side Story,” all of which contain LGBTQ+ characters or themes.

Based on the bestselling romance novel by Colleen Hoover, “It Ends With Us” opened in theaters worldwide and collected $80 million over the weekend, including a better than expected $50 million in the U.S. and Canada.

The film stars Blake Lively as a flower shop owner who gets caught in a love triangle with her abusive partner and her childhood sweetheart. Rounding out the main cast are Brandon Sklenar, Jenny Slate and Justin Baldoni, who also directed the picture.

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The highly anticipated title garnered mixed reviews from critics but exceeded early expectations at the box office, notably rivaling Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” starring Lively’s husband, Ryan Reynolds.

Despite its exclusion from Qatar, nearly 40% of the opening-weekend gross for “It Ends With Us” came from international markets. The movie was released in 42 different regions on more than 7,300 screens, according to measurement firm Comscore.

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Column: Trump says Harris stole his idea for exempting tips from tax, but her version beats his

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Column: Trump says Harris stole his idea for exempting tips from tax, but her version beats his

Every four years, the just-toss-an-idea-out-there phase of the presidential race precedes the serious campaigning that starts after Labor Day.

The flavor of the moment is the idea of exempting tips from federal taxes. Donald Trump proposed it during an appearance in June in Las Vegas (home to a lot of restaurant and hotel workers who depend on tips).

Kamala Harris offered her version a few days ago during a rally of her own, also in Las Vegas. That prompted Trump to whine on social media that she had poached his idea.

A meaningful share of tipped workers already pay zero federal income tax.

— Ernie Tedeschi, Yale Budget Lab

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Are you tired of this yet?

Hang on, because there’s more to say, starting with the fact that a tax exemption for tips on its own won’t do much good for the many low-income workers who count tips as an important part of their income.

Second, this is hardly a new idea — it has been kicking around the political world since at least the 1980s. California exempted tips from state tax (with some conditions) in 2015.

A tax exemption for tips is a crowd-pleaser, but doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Trump’s version, and a bill introduced by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) to put meat on its bones, are half-baked.

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Harris paired hers with a proposal to raise the federal minimum wage, which is a much better policy.

If all this jockeying is the two parties vying to be more family-friendly, the crown goes to the Democrats, hands down.

Let’s place the issue under a microscope.

Since Trump hasn’t given any details, we have to use the Cruz/Donalds No Tax on Tips Act as a signpost for the GOP approach. The measure exempts tips from federal income tax, but not from the payroll tax that funds Social Security and part of Medicare. It applies only to households that pay federal income taxes — it’s not refundable, meaning that it doesn’t provide any benefit to households whose income is so low they don’t owe federal taxes.

That leaves out all but “a small sliver” of American workers, according to economist Ernie Tedeschi of the Yale Budget Lab. He counts the number of workers in traditional tipped occupations, including wait staff, barbers and hairdressers, at about 4 million, or just 2.5% of all workers.

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“A meaningful share of tipped workers already pay zero federal income tax,” Tedeschi notes.

U.S. census data drive home his point: More than a third of tipped workers earned so little in 2022 that they owed no federal income tax. In other words, they’d receive zero benefit from the Republican act.

Another flaw of the bill is its lack of guardrails to ensure that only low-income tipped workers receive its benefits. Nowhere in the three-page measure are tips defined, nor is there a phase-out of the tax break based on income. This raises the possibility that higher-income households could game the system by defining some of their earnings as tips and pocketing the deduction.

Nothing would “prevent high-income professionals such as hedge fund managers from shifting their compensation to a tax-free tipping model,” observes Brendan Duke of the liberal Center for American Progress.

That mention of “hedge fund managers” shows that the folks at CAP know how their audience would react to another giveaway to plutocrats, but it’s hard to deny that the wealthy are masters of exploiting any tax break that could conceivably save them money.

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The biggest problem with the Republican approach is that it operates in a vacuum, as if exempting tips from income tax is all that needs to be done to vest the GOP with pro-family cred. It’s not. Far more gains would be achieved by extending enhancements to the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Child Tax Credit that were enacted as part of the American Rescue Plan of 2021.

The EITC and Child Tax Credit enhancements expired at the end of 2021. Efforts by the Biden White House and its Democratic allies on Capitol Hill to extend them failed, due mostly to Republican opposition. Under the Rescue Plan, the child tax credit was increased to an annual $3,000 per child ($3,600 for children under age 6), from $2,000 per child. The measure raised the maximum age of children eligible for the credit to 17 from 16.

Even more important, the credit was made fully refundable, meaning that it went to families regardless of whether or how much they paid in federal income taxes. The American Rescue Plan also eliminated the preexisting program’s work incentives, which reduced the credit for lower-income families. When the enhancements expired, the child credit fell back to $2,000 per child and reduced the refundable portion to $1,700.

As CAP calculates, many of the low-income households that would receive nothing from the No Tax on Tips Act — a single parent with one child, living on $24,000 income mostly from tips, a student working part-time or a married couple earning less than $30,000 — would receive benefits of up to $2,600 from restoration of the American Rescue Plan credits.

The enhanced Child Tax Credit reduced the child poverty rate by about 30%, keeping as many as 3.7 million children out of poverty by the end of 2021. When the enhancements expired in January, the child poverty rate spiked to 17% from 12.1%, plunging 3.7 million children back under the poverty line. The impact was much worse on Black, Latino and Asian children than on white ones.

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In other words, if the Republicans wished to be pro-family really, not just rhetorically, they would have clamored to extend the credits.

Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, whose mouth writes checks his campaign can’t cash, says he’s in favor of the child tax credit and even wants to raise it as high as $5,000 per child. Couple of problems here: First, he surely knows that his Republican colleagues in Congress would never support such a large grant to families, and second, when a more modest increase came up to the Senate floor two weeks ago, Vance didn’t even show up to vote.

How about Harris’ proposal?

What she said in Las Vegas was this: “We will continue our fight for working families of America, including to raise the minimum wage and eliminate taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers.” Nestled within that statement are two very important distinctions from the Trump or Republican proposal.

First is a raise in the federal minimum wage, which has been frozen at $7.25 an hour since 2009. Had the minimum kept pace with inflation, it would be $10.79 today. In seven states, the federal wage applies — five that have not enacted a minimum wage of their own (Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Tennessee) and two (Georgia and Wyoming) where the state minimum is lower than $7.25, meaning that the federal wage is the law.

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Harris also specified service and hospitality workers, which obviously means she would exclude professionals gaming the law. Whether she would do so by phasing out the benefit by income or specifically identifying eligible occupations isn’t clear.

Despite her careful phrasing, conservative commentators and not a few actual journalistic organizations fell into the trap of treating Harris’ proposal as a copycat of Trump’s.

The right-wing pundit Mary Katherine Ham, whose determination to tell it like it is was hampered by her lack of knowledge, tweeted that if Harris is “just gonna copy and paste Trump’s site, she doesn’t need another week or two to debut it.”

Obviously, if Ham spent two minutes examining the proposals, she wouldn’t have made this claim. But her error matched those of, for example, CBS News, which reported in headline syntax that Harris was “echoing Trump proposal.”

The distinction was also lost on the Wall Street Journal, which accused Harris of “borrowing a Trump idea.” Never mind that the idea wasn’t Trump’s in the first place. The Times, I’m sorry to say, picked up an Associated Press account that described Harris as “echoing a pledge that her opponent, Republican Donald Trump, has made, and marking a rare instance of political overlap from both sides.”

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Budget deficit hawks have also weighed in. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a watchdog group that is an offspring of the late hedge fund billionaire Pete Peterson, wrung its hands over the potential cost of Harris’ plan, based on a conjecture that she would raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.

The committee estimated that, combined with an income tax exemption, her plan would cost the federal government as much as $200 billion over 10 years. Is that a lot?

The Congressional Budget Office projects that annual federal budgets will total about $19.6 trillion over the next 10 years, making the cost of the minimum wage and tip exemption come to about 1% of federal outlays during that time.

You make the call. Two of the most expensive tax breaks in federal law are the exemptions for contributions and earnings for pension and individual retirement accounts, and the preferential tax rates on dividends and capital gains. Both disproportionately benefit the wealthy. Combined, they come to $680 billion a year; the minimum wage increase and tip exemption would cost an average $20 billion a year.

Some people might think that an important goal of the federal government should be providing for the most vulnerable members of society. The current system, especially after a massive tax break was enacted by the Republicans and signed by Trump in 2017, is heavily skewed toward comforting the wealthy.

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If the parties and their candidates want to play the pro-family card, one can’t really blame them for seizing on a policy that sounds great on TV. Only one of the parties has gone beyond a tax exemption on tips and has favored truly comprehensive pro-family policies. Can you see which one?

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