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Column: No, gas prices aren’t really at a ‘record.’ But people are hurting anyway

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Column: No, gas prices aren’t really at a ‘record.’ But people are hurting anyway

With the value of a gallon of crude oil spiking, you’ll be studying and seeing a number of experiences about gasoline costs setting data in the US.

That’s true up to some extent, however largely not true. The distinction is the way you account for inflation.

Nominal costs — the quantity you see on the gasoline pump once you’re filling up — are hitting what look like unprecedented ranges. As of Tuesday morning, the American Car Assn. pegged the nationwide common at $4.173 a gallon and the California common at $5.444.

It is a step that we’re taking to inflict additional ache on Putin. However there will probably be prices as properly right here in the US.

President Biden, saying a U.S. embargo of Russian oil

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When accounting for inflation, nonetheless, at present’s costs are nonetheless about 20% under the 2008 peak on the nationwide degree and seven% under the California document that yr.

That doesn’t imply that costs at present aren’t inflicting actual ache in shoppers’ wallets, since what one pays for gasoline at present comes out of 1’s wages or financial savings at present.

The extra money that flows to gasoline corporations, the much less households have for requirements — meals, lease, clothes — in addition to leisure actions reminiscent of eating out or taking holidays.

Furthermore, will increase within the worth of oil percolate by way of the financial system at giant, driving worth will increase in a universe of commodities and manufactured items. A near-time spike in oil will present up as inflationary strain virtually in all places.

Neither is the run-up in oil and gasoline costs possible over. The principle purpose is simple to discern on the entrance web page of each day newspapers and on cable information: Russia’s conflict on Ukraine. Petroleum is Russia’s main export, with the European Union and China its prime clients.

Sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S. and European Union had not included oil or pure gasoline, partly as a result of Europe will depend on the Russian provide by way of the winter and spring heating seasons. President Biden, nonetheless, introduced an embargo on U.S. purchases of Russian oil Tuesday as a part of the worldwide effort to choke off Russia’s monetary sources.

The transfer gained’t have a lot of a direct affect on American oil provides, since Russia accounts for under 3% of U.S. oil imports and 1% of the crude processed by U.S. refineries. (Extra for refineries on the West Coast and Gulf Coast.) Nevertheless it injected one other destabilizing concern into worldwide oil markets, the place the value of crude has been hovering close to $130 a barrel. Costs on the pump carefully observe the spot marketplace for crude.

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“It is a step that we’re taking to inflict additional ache on Putin,” Biden stated Tuesday in saying the embargo. “However there will probably be prices as properly right here in the US.”

Even earlier than the Russian assault on Ukraine, oil and gasoline costs had been in an inflationary spiral. The principle purpose was that the ebbing of the pandemic had spurred extra financial exercise, and oil-producing nations hadn’t stepped up manufacturing to satisfy the demand.

It’s value noting too that not everyone seems to be feeling ache from greater oil costs. Massive multinational oil corporations have been exploiting the run-up within the worth of crude to line their pockets. Chevron, for instance, recorded a revenue of $5.1 billion on $48.1 billion in gross sales within the final quarter of 2021, which ended Dec. 31, in contrast with a lack of $6.7 billion on $34.6 billion in gross sales within the final pre-pandemic quarter, the fourth quarter of 2019.

ExxonMobil reported an identical pattern line, with revenue rising to $8.9 billion on gross sales of $85 billion within the fourth quarter of 2021, from revenue of $5.7 billion on gross sales of $67.2 billion in the identical quarter two years earlier.

The share costs of each corporations have been on a tear up to now this yr — greater crude oil costs are at all times appreciated by their traders. Chevron’s shares have risen greater than 40% and ExxonMobil‘s about 35% this yr. These are income you’re feeding on the pump.

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For all that, it might be helpful to put at present’s gasoline costs in an inflation context. Adjusted for inflation, the value of a gallon has been remarkably constant from 1978 by way of 2020, from about $2.25 to $2.37 per gallon in 2020 {dollars}. In nominal phrases — that’s, the costs individuals see on the time — there have been spikes and slowdowns. However they have a tendency to even out over the long run.

By that measure, present common gasoline costs haven’t but reached an inflation-adjusted peak.

In 2008, the final main run-up in gasoline costs, the nationwide common reached a document $4.114 a gallon and California gasoline reached a document $4.588. In 2008 costs, at present’s nationwide common can be $3.26 and the California worth $4.26.

To take a look at issues the other manner, the 2008 document of $4.114 would translate to about $5.26 in at present’s costs and the California document of $4.588 can be $5.83.

One shouldn’t overlook that American shoppers have been lulled by comparatively low gasoline costs in recent times into complacency about what they’re driving. Common car mileage has been creeping upward, from 20 miles per gallon in 2008 to 29 mpg in 2020 for midsize automobiles, and from about 14 to 18 mpg to 24 mpg for normal sport utility autos.

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However SUVs grew from about 27% of U.S. automobile gross sales in 2010 to 48% in 2018, which muted the pattern to thriftier driving. Filling a typical SUV’s gasoline tank, which may maintain from about 20 to as many as 33.5 gallons, will price wherever from $83.50 to $140 on the nationwide common worth, and $109 to $182 on the California common.

That’s sufficient to make any shopper take discover, even with out watching TV reporters standing in entrance of the costliest gasoline stations within the area to allow them to level to indicators promoting $6 and $7 gasoline.

Electrification of the nationwide automobile fleet will assist wean People from gasoline, however to this point the transformation has been sluggish. All-electric autos accounted for lower than 2% of recent automobile gross sales in 2020, although the share could rise quicker within the close to future as extra producers convey out EV fashions.

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Fresh Brothers pizza chain expanding beyond Southern California after sale to Craveworthy Brands

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Fresh Brothers pizza chain expanding beyond Southern California after sale to Craveworthy Brands

Fresh Brothers, the Southern California pizza chain, will expand into a national brand after being acquired this week by a Chicago-based company.

Founded in 2008, the popular pizza chain currently has 25 locations from Los Angeles to San Diego including shops in Manhattan Beach, Brentwood and Hollywood. The operation was appealing to Craveworthy Brands, which operates 15 restaurant brands with 225 locations nationally, said Chief Executive Gregg Majewski.

Majewski declined to disclose how much Craveworthy Brands paid to acquire Fresh Brothers. Under Craveworthy’s franchise model, new Fresh Brothers pizza locations will be independently owned, he said.

There are plans to open a Fresh Brothers in the Chicago area and begin franchising in other states by March, Majewski said. And while he eventually hopes to make some inroads in Florida and other states, Majewski said he doesn’t have plans to make an aggressive push into the Northeast.

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“We’re going to work our way east from Los Angeles and west from Chicago, and we’ll meet somewhere in the middle when we’re done,” Majewski said.

He also plans to expand the Fresh Brothers footprint in California.

The restaurants’ affordable prices and use of higher-quality ingredients set Fresh Brothers apart in the crowded field of pizza chains, Majewski said.

“That’s a niche we want to be in,” he said. “We think Fresh Brothers is absolutely prime to be a higher level franchise concept in the pizza world.”

The expansion of Fresh Brothers is somewhat of an outlier in the fast-casual dining industry, where many chains have been struggling amid inflation and high labor costs. Average consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending, experts say, and may be frequenting their favorite restaurants less.

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Mod Pizza, a fast-casual chain with more than 40 locations in California, was acquired by a Los Angeles-based restaurant group in July after teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. Popular burger joint Shake Shack closed nine locations in September, including five in the Los Angeles area.

But Majewski is optimistic about Fresh Brothers’ future and said the brand is a perfect fit for his restaurant platform.

“Backed by a deep understanding of market dynamics and a commitment to operational excellence, Craveworthy is uniquely positioned to guide Fresh Brothers’ journey from its Southern California foundation to nationwide expansion,” the company said in a statement.

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'Wicked' and 'Gladiator' set the stage for gravity-defying box office weekend

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'Wicked' and 'Gladiator' set the stage for gravity-defying box office weekend

Universal Pictures’ “Wicked” and Paramount Pictures’ “Gladiator II” are expected to post gravity-defying numbers at the domestic box office this weekend.

On the heels of a solid summer (“Inside Out 2,” “Deadpool & Wolverine”) and a mildly disappointing fall (“Megalopolis,” “Joker: Folie à Deux”), the witches of Oz and the warriors of ancient Rome are joining forces to kick off the holiday movie season.

Each buoyed by star power, aggressive marketing and beloved intellectual property, “Gladiator II” is projected to launch somewhere between $65 million and $75 million, while “Wicked” is expected to conjure $120 million to $140 million in the United States and Canada, according to estimates from Boxoffice Pro.

Studio projections are lower, putting “Gladiator II” around $60 million and “Wicked” around $100 million.

“‘Wicked’ is the one that’s really moving up. ‘Gladiator II’ has been consistent,” said Daniel Loria, editorial director and senior vice president of content strategy at Boxoffice Pro.

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“A lot of that is driven by a very healthy fan culture. This is a musical that has been around for a long time. People are familiar with it. I know musicals haven’t had the best track record at the box office, but ‘Wicked’ is the blockbuster musical of this generation.”

Theaters have been longing for a four-quadrant, double-feature moviegoing event since last year’s same-day release of Warner Bros.’ “Barbie” and Universal’s “Oppenheimer” created the global “Barbenheimer” sensation. Movie houses and entertainment companies have increasingly come to rely on movies that become viral, must-see cultural phenomena, a trend that accelerated after the COVID-19 pandemic scrambled audience behaviors and studio strategies.

“Wicked” and “Gladiator II” will be playing in thousands of theaters nationwide, with Disney’s highly anticipated “Moana 2” on the not-so-distant horizon, portending a much-needed period of healthy cinema attendance. Following multiple critical and commercial flops, morale is up among exhibitors betting on a strong end to 2024 and start to 2025.

A hat trick for “Gladiator II,” “Wicked” and “Moana 2” would be huge for the industry “coming off of the worst October of the post-pandemic era,” Loria said. Domestic box office so far this year is down 11% from the same span in 2023, and remains significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, according to Comscore.

“I’m not sure this Venn diagram is going to be as big as the one we had for ‘Barbenheimer,’” Loria added. “But it’s another example of this industry responding to consumer demands and responding to the need for diversity … at the multiplex.”

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Directed by Jon M. Chu, “Wicked” tells the origin story of Glinda, the Good Witch of the North, and Elphaba, the Wicked Witch of the West, before Dorothy arrived in Munchkinland and followed the yellow brick road. The long-awaited reframing of “The Wizard of Oz” — based on the hit Broadway musical of the same name — stars pop phenom Ariana Grande as Glinda and Tony Award winner Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba.

Universal has gone all out to promote the production, which cost an estimated $150 million to produce, not including marketing. The 2-hour, 40-minute film only covers the first act of the stage musical. Part two arrives in theaters next year.

Unlike the marketing around other films in the genre — such as Paramount Pictures’ “Mean Girls” and Warner Bros.’ “Wonka” — the “Wicked” campaign has not downplayed its musical elements. On the contrary, Grande and Erivo’s renditions of fan-favorite songs, from “Popular” to “Defying Gravity,” have featured prominently in trailers and TV spots promoting the movie.

“You couldn’t hide it if you wanted to,” said a studio source who was not authorized to comment.

But the “Wicked” marketing machine goes way beyond the music.

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Universal partnered with 400 brands worldwide — including Starbucks, Ulta Beauty, Bloomingdale’s and Lexus — to douse retail shelves in pink and green, the signature colors of the movie’s leading sorceresses. There are “Wicked”-themed shoes, clothes, phone cases, laptop sleeves, luggage, candles, makeup palettes, jewelry, cups, office supplies, backpacks and hairdryers.

At least one of the brand collaborations drew unwanted attention. Mattel’s line of Glinda and Elphaba dolls made headlines recently when customers noticed that the packaging included the web address for a porn site instead of the movie’s official landing page. The toy company quickly apologized for the gaffe, calling the misprint an “unfortunate error.”

Unfortunate errors and all, Universal certainly has made a massive effort to live up to its source material’s fame with its ubiquitous rollout.

“Whenever you have a marketing campaign that can go to your exercise bike, that can go to your supermarket, that can really exit the theater and permeate the culture — that’s when you know the studio has really pulled out all the stops,” Loria said. “I’m not sure I can name a movie since ‘Barbie’ that has done that.”

The marketing team behind “Gladiator II” — director Ridley Scott’s lega-sequel to his early-aughts best picture winner, starring Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal and Denzel Washington — has pulled out a few tricks as well.

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For example: a Colosseum-shaped popcorn bucket with a virtual-reality twist and a controversial deal with Airbnb to bring Medieval Times-esque entertainment to the actual Colosseum in Rome.

“Gladiator II” cost an estimated $250 million to make, not including marketing costs.

Exhibitors are joining in on the fun too.

Look Cinemas — a dine-in theater chain with locations in Downey, Glendale, Monrovia and Redlands — has curated a special “Wickedator” menu with themed food and beverage items ranging from Arena Nachos (“Gladiator”) to Emerald City Sours (“Wicked”).

James Meredith, head of marketing and revenue at Look Cinemas, said the company has been preparing for this weekend for months, reserving premium screening rooms for both films, hosting advance screenings as early as Wednesday and expanding its showtimes and hours of operation to meet consumer demand reminiscent of the “Barbenheimer” craze.

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“Our guests want to come in and escape for a while and have a big event or celebration around some of these popular movies,” Meredith said. “These types of movies … remind customers of how special the moviegoing experience is.”

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Column: It's the season for scams, so here's a piece of advice: Never do business with strangers

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Column: It's the season for scams, so here's a piece of advice: Never do business with strangers

The text arrived midday, saying a delivery to me was on hold. To fix the problem, all I had to do was click on a web link and enter my ZIP Code.

“Have a great day from the USPS team!” the text said.

The awkwardly worded message (with bad punctuation and an international phone number) was clearly not from the Postal Service. And if I can hazard a wild guess, I don’t think the senders really wanted me to have a great day.

They wanted to rip me off and, so, a word to the wise this holiday season:

Watch your wallet.

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California is about to be hit by an aging population wave, and Steve Lopez is riding it. His column focuses on the blessings and burdens of advancing age — and how some folks are challenging the stigma associated with older adults.

Fraud is a year-round, multibillion-dollar international enterprise. But for thieves, the season of joy is a wide-open window of opportunity, as AARP warned Nov. 18:

“With scammers looking to take advantage of consumers from all angles, new AARP survey research reveals that people need to be vigilant this holiday season as they buy gifts, book their travel arrangements, and donate to charities.”

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Many of the scams are run by sophisticated international syndicates, said Kathy Stokes, director of fraud prevention at AARP’s Fraud Watch Network. Those crooks are working every channel, fishing for victims by email, phone calls, texts, fliers and regular mail.

Unwitting people are forking over money via gift cards, cryptocurrency, credit cards, cash and wire transfers. Losses often are virtually impossible to recover because the money is on foreign soil before the victims know they’ve been robbed.

Stokes said that in one common ripoff, thieves are going after people who own timeshares they’re trying to dump.

“There’s all this paperwork that makes it look legitimate, like you’re paying to get out of the timeshare,” Stokes said. But the crooks are pocketing thousands of dollars while the target is still stuck with the timeshare.

Last week, in a national conference on scams targeting older adults, Deborah Royster of the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau warned that consumers are being wiped out in a flash.

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“Retirement savings and other resources that people have earned over a lifetime, and depend on,” Royster said, “can be gone in an instant.”

In that same conference, Virginia lawyer Julie M. Strandlie said her 85-year-old mother lost $80,000 between Thanksgiving and Christmas five years ago in a common scam that began with “flashing graphics and pounding voices” on her computer screen, warning of a virus.

“There’s a number to call for help, but it’s not the real Microsoft,” Strandlie said.

Her mother fell for the ruse, giving the criminals remote access to unlock her frozen computer. She was then duped into believing they had deposited money into her account, and she needed to pay it back in cash and gift cards from Best Buy and Target.

As LAPD Lead Officer Carlos Diaz looks on, Detective Albert Smith leaves a card with Marta Barillas, who was robbed recently

As LAPD Lead Officer Carlos Diaz, left, looks on, LAPD Det. Albert Smith leaves his card with Marta Barillas after a presentation about financial scams and physical abuse against seniors at St. Barnabas Senior Services in Los Angeles in June 2023.

(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)

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Steve McFarland, president and CEO of the Better Business Bureau region that runs from Palo Alto to Long Beach, said his office is getting 1,100 consumer complaints of all types each and every day.

He wasn’t kidding and repeated the number.

McFarland and other sources say a greater percentage of millennials report fraud than do older adults, but the latter group suffers greater losses. And across the age spectrum, McFarland said, gift card scams are hot right now.

Bar codes on those cards can be tampered with or photographed by someone before they’re sold, McFarland said. The buyer of the card goes to a checkout stand and puts, let’s say, $100 on the card to be redeemed at Target, Burger King or any number of establishments.

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But when the recipient goes to redeem it, the funds are gone. It happened last year to L.A. County Supervisor Janice Hahn, who bought a $100 VISA gift card for a nephew who found that it wasn’t worth a nickel. Hahn later warned of the scam, along with McFarland, on L.A.’s Eyewitness News.

“It’s called gift card draining and these scammers have found several slick ways to victimize unsuspecting shoppers,” Hahn said.

In addition to outright scams, this is a time of year when solicitations for charitable donations can fill your mailbox.

“A lot of charities are trying to close out strong, and criminals know that and are vying for the same dollars,” Stokes said.

If it’s not an established organization that’s known for its good work, Stokes advised going to the Better Business Bureau’s give.org website, where you can type in the name of the charity to find out whether it’s legit. You can also find out what percentage of donations go to the cause versus overhead costs.

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Your best policy, unfortunately, is to be suspicious of everything. I recently got a letter with my mortgage lender’s name in the window and opened it to find a warning that this was my “FINAL NOTICE” to avoid a monthly payment increase.

It looked hinky, and on the back page, in fine print, I learned that the mail was from a lender unaffiliated with my mortgage company.

If you see “final notice,” “urgent” or “benefit disbursement enclosed,” don’t even bother opening the envelope.

A friend shared a tall stack of mail that keeps coming for his mother, who died months ago, and as I sifted through it I found one attempt after another to separate her from her money. “Copy of Final Check Enclosed,” said one, and in the cellophane window was what looked like a check for $437.18 that said “Pay to the order of …”

But it wasn’t a check, of course. It was a solicitation from a lobbying firm claiming it will fight to preserve Social Security funding (and by the way, she had a lot of mail from organizations claiming they were out to do the same).

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The fake check was described as an example of what she stood to lose if she didn’t immediately support the cause by pulling out her credit card and making an “urgent donation” to keep Social Security solvent.

And then there were solicitations from organizations representing a Noah’s Ark of endangered animals. Look, I’m an animal lover, but how does one begin to sort through all the pleas?

Save the pigs. The horses. The bees. The lions. The donkeys.

“Sunday, a baby donkey was ripped from his mother and brutalized,” said one envelope.

Lots of appeals for dogs, too. One included the photo of a dog with amazing verbal skills, judging by the quote attributed to the canine: “I wish for no one else to be hurt the way humans have hurt me.”

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I feel for the dog, but if he can actually speak, let’s get him an agent and send him out on tour so the pup can raise a fortune for his cause.

Of course, there are plenty of good charities out there that are worthy of your generosity, but be careful.

With solicitations. With email. With texts. With phone calls.

All of it.

Banks should be doing more to prevent repeated, questionable, out-of-the-ordinary withdrawals and wire transfers. The gift card industry ought to be able to rein in rampant fraud with smarter security measures.

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And people of all ages need to be more discerning, refuse to provide personal information such as Social Security numbers, and get some advice from a trusted friend or loved one before signing any checks or doing business with strangers.

Last year I wrote about two retired L.A. residents, a former teacher and a former banker, who were swindled out of roughly $80,000 apiece in internet scams. Earlier this year I wrote about a Redwood City woman who was taken for $1.8 million, and an Alhambra woman, Alice Lin, who lost $720,000 in an “investment” scheme introduced to her by a man she met on a chat app.

I reached out to Lin, who had some good advice on all forms of communication from sources you don’t know or trust.

“Do not respond,” Lin said. “Don’t touch it.”

steve.lopez@latimes.com

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