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Groundhog Day and Friday the 13th

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Groundhog Day and Friday the 13th

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Congress is a very superstitious place. Only on Capitol Hill would temporal markers like Groundhog Day and Friday the 13th hold legislative resonance.

The partial government shutdown will continue until at least Tuesday. This impacts 78% of the federal government after Democrats scuttled a multi-bill spending plan last week over concerns about ICE.

The charge now for the House of Representatives is to align with a revised Senate-passed plan from Friday. This bill would fund the Pentagon, HUD, transportation programs and a host of agencies through September 30. But it would only operate DHS temporarily as Democrats demand reforms to ICE.

Many House Democrats balked at the plan supported by many Senate Democrats on Friday. That contributed to uncertainty about whether the House can reopen the government this week. First, House Democrats argued they weren’t a party to the deal cut by many Senate Democrats to partly fund the government and only apply a Band-Aid to DHS funding.

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DEMOCRAT WHO BROKE WITH PARTY SAYS HIS DHS FUNDING VOTE A ‘MISTAKE’ AFTER 2ND MINNEAPOLIS ICE SHOOTING

The partial government shutdown will continue until at least Tuesday. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

House Democrats seethed — not so privately – last March when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and other Democrats agreed to help Republicans avoid a shutdown. So last Thursday, I asked House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) if he and Schumer were in sync this time.

“First of all, that question is, so March of 2025,” Jeffries chided.

He then ran through a litany of examples of House and Senate Democrats aligning, ranging from health care to the fall government shutdown. Jeffries then answered the question.

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“Yes. Short answer. We are on the same page,” said Jeffries.

And then added a caveat — which is so February 2026.

“Now with respect to what emerges from the Senate, as is always the case, we will evaluate whatever bill comes over to us on its merits,” said Jeffries.

Some Democrats were fine with the funding deal. Moderate Democrats didn’t want to continue the government shutdown. It’s bad politics back home. Others embraced earmarks they secured in the funding package. Yet progressives argued they couldn’t support any funding bill until they saw concrete plans to reform ICE. That’s to say nothing of some on the left wanting to defund ICE.

“I will be voting no on this funding package. I refuse to send another cent to (White House Adviser) Stephen Miller or (Homeland Security Secretary) Kristi Noem,” said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA), the top Democrat on the House Rules Committee.

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But Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), the ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, planned to vote yes. The bill funds most of the government for the rest of the fiscal year. And it buys time to get a deal on ICE.

“If we do not do that, we will not be able to bring the kinds of pressure that is necessary to make sure that ICE does not continue to terrorize our communities,” said DeLauro.

So there may be the votes to pass the bill. But the real problem may be on a test vote, known as the rule.

The House must approve the rule first to determine how it will handle a bill on the floor. If the House adopts the rule, it can debate and vote on the bill. If the vote on the rule fails, the gig is up.

Some Republicans may oppose the rule. And Democrats made clear they would not assist on the procedural measure which is customarily carried by the majority party.

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“Republicans have a responsibility to move the rule,” said Jeffries. “If they have some massive mandate, then go pass your rule.”

House Republicans feel the pressure.

HOUSE FREEDOM CAUCUS DRAWS LINE ON DHS, ICE FUNDING AS MINNEAPOLIS UNREST FUELS SHUTDOWN RISK

House Democrats seethed last March when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democrats agreed to help Republicans avoid a shutdown. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

“We always work until the midnight hour to get the votes. You never start the process with everyone on board,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA).

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It’s about the math.

The Republican majority shrank Monday after the House swore-in Rep. Christian Menefee (D-TX). He won a special election in Texas over the weekend. The GOP majority now holds a 218-214 advantage. In other words, Republican can lose one vote and still pass a bill on their own if every Member casts a ballot.

“Does his election make your job a little tougher tomorrow?” I asked House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) as he met with Menefee for the ceremonial swearing-in.

“We have a one vote margin now. So what could go wrong? That’s fine. We’re happy for him. And, I hope the first vote is not to shut the government down. That’s not a good way to start,” said Johnson.

“Are you going to make the job a little harder on the Republican side tomorrow?” I queried Menefee.

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“I just got elected on Saturday and just jumped off the plane to get here. So my first job is to figure out what the bathroom is,” said Menefee.

I followed up.

“Does that mean a no vote tomorrow?”

“It means I’ve got to consider the issues very thoughtfully and cast a vote that matches my values,” deflected Menefee.

“Good answer!” exclaimed an ecstatic Johnson.

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So everything hinges on the rule vote. If the House crosses that procedural hurdle, it can probably pass the bill and end the shutdown. If not, there’s trouble.

President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he hoped there was a bipartisan solution to what he termed a “long, pointless and destructive shutdown.”

Perhaps it’s only appropriate that everyone was talking about ending a government shutdown on Groundhog Day. Especially after the record-breaking 43-day shutdown last autumn.

By the way, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow. He forecast six more weeks of winter. After all of these funding fights, when is someone going to ask Phil for his prognostication about the shutdown?

But forget Groundhog Day. What everyone should really focus on is Friday the 13th. As in a week from Friday. If the House aligns with the Senate and ends the partial government shutdown, lawmakers only have until 11:59:59 pm et on Friday the 13th to fund DHS. Otherwise, DHS remains broke. Again. That means FEMA has issues. TSA agents aren’t getting paid. You name it.

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SENATE DEMOCRATS THREATEN SHUTDOWN BY BLOCKING DHS FUNDING AFTER MINNESOTA ICE SHOOTING

President Donald Trump said that he hoped there was a bipartisan solution to what he termed a “long, pointless and destructive shutdown.” (Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo)

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It’s hard to address issues with ICE in such a tight timeframe.

“Republicans need to take a good look at what’s happening around the country and realize too that it’s time to rein in ICE’s abuses,” said Schumer.

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Some Republicans agree.

“We should have been focusing on criminals and gang members and people with active deportation orders. I don’t think we should have been focusing on people that have been here for a long time, grandmothers, et cetera, that happen to be in a neighborhood when you’re doing an enforcement action,” said Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-FL) on Fox Business. “I think that that was a mistake and I think it’s coming back to haunt us right now.”

So there’s bipartisan agreement on addressing ICE. But those reforms must make it through both the House and Senate by Friday the 13th.

Only Congress could create a nightmare like this.

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Video: Senate Confirms Markwayne Mullin as Homeland Security Secretary

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Video: Senate Confirms Markwayne Mullin as Homeland Security Secretary

new video loaded: Senate Confirms Markwayne Mullin as Homeland Security Secretary

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Senate Confirms Markwayne Mullin as Homeland Security Secretary

The Senate confirmed Markwayne Mullin to take over the Homeland Security Department in a 54-to-45 vote on Monday.

The nomination of Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma to be secretary of homeland security is confirmed. [cheering] [clapping]

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The Senate confirmed Markwayne Mullin to take over the Homeland Security Department in a 54-to-45 vote on Monday.

By Shawn Paik

March 23, 2026

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Mullin confirmed as DHS chief as lawmakers near solution on shutdown standoff

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Mullin confirmed as DHS chief as lawmakers near solution on shutdown standoff

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The Senate confirmed Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., as the ninth Homeland Security secretary, capping a sprint to replace embattled outgoing Secretary Kristi Noem.

It also caps off a 13-year career in Congress that began in the House and saw Mullin score a seat in the Senate in 2021 where he became the de facto bridge between both chambers, helping to build trust between the House and Senate during last year’s push to pass the “big, beautiful bill.” Ahead of the vote he arrived flanked by his family, and was excited to cast his final vote on himself.  

Mullin, who was picked by President Donald Trump earlier this month to lead the Department of Homeland Security, was confirmed on a largely party-line vote. Sens. John Fetterman, D-Pa., and Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., joined nearly every Republican to clinch his nomination.

Heinrich said he bucked his party because he has seen that Mullin — who co-chairs the Senate Legislative Branch spending committee with him — “is not someone who can simply be bullied into changing his views.”

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MULLIN’S CONFIRMATION SURVIVES KEY TEST VOTE AS DHS REMAINS SHUT DOWN

Sen. Markwayne Mullin, Republican from Oklahoma, addresses reporters at the U.S. Capitol after being tapped as President Donald Trump’s new nominee to lead DHS, March 5, 2026. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

“And I look forward to having a secretary who doesn’t take their orders from Stephen Miller,” Heinrich said.

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., was the only Republican to vote against Mullin, citing their chilly relationship and Mullin’s past comments that his 2017 assault was “justified.”

Mullin’s confirmation also saw the close of a whirlwind month in which Noem was reassigned after an explosive pair of hearings on Capitol Hill, as well as the deaths of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti, who were fatally shot by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents.

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SCHUMER GAMBIT FAILS AS DHS SHUTDOWN HITS 36 DAYS AND AIRPORT LINES GROW

Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem testifies in a hearing in Washington in March 2026. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Still, Noem’s ousting and Mullin’s ascension have done little to shift Senate Democrats from their position. They continue to demand sweeping reforms to ICE and have so far blocked funding to the agency five times, along with several GOP attempts to temporarily extend funding to DHS.

The path to ending the shutdown appeared to become more complicated over the weekend.

Both sides began meeting for the first time during the shutdown, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., characterizing the talks as “productive.”

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However, Trump threw a wrench into negotiations Sunday night, writing on Truth Social: “I don’t think we should make any deal with the Crazy, Country Destroying, Radical Left Democrats unless, and until, they vote with Republicans to pass ‘THE SAVE AMERICA ACT.’”

GOP SENATOR’S GAMBIT EXPOSES FALSE DEM CLAIMS ABOUT SUPPORTING VOTER ID

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport on March 23, 2026 in West Palm Beach, Florida. President Trump is traveling to Tennessee before returning to Washington. (Roberto Schmidt / Getty Images)

“In other words, lump everything together as one, and VOTE!!! Kill the Filibuster, and stay in D.C. for Easter, if necessary,” Trump said.

That comes after Thune suggested to the president that Republicans could carve out ICE and Customs and Border Protection funding from a broader DHS package and instead fund those agencies through budget reconciliation.

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Canceling recess may be a hard sell in the upper chamber, given that votes this past weekend were plagued by absences. When asked if he would cancel the upcoming two-week break, Thune said, “We’ll see.” 

A cohort of Senate Republicans met with Trump ahead of Mullin’s confirmation vote. Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., told reporters after that the meeting went “really well.” 

When asked if Republicans had a solution to end the closure, she said, “We do.” 

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Still, Senate Democrats remain unified in their opposition to the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act.

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“We’re ready to meet with the White House today to keep talking,” Schumer said. “In fact, we were going to meet this morning with Tom Homan. But apparently the White House pulled that meeting because of Donald Trump’s temper tantrum. They’re all scrambling around there in the White House. They don’t know what to do.” 

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USC cancels gubernatorial debate amid uproar over candidates of color being excluded

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USC cancels gubernatorial debate amid uproar over candidates of color being excluded

The University of Southern California canceled its Tuesday gubernatorial debate after facing fiery criticism about excluding every gubernatorial candidate of color.

Although the university defended the methodology used to determine who was invited to participate in the forum, they canceled the debate less than 24 hours before it was set to take place because of the mounting controversy.

“We recognize that concerns about the selection criteria for tomorrow’s gubernatorial debate have created a significant distraction from the issues that matter to voters,” the university said in a statement to The Times. “Unfortunately, USC and [debate co-sponsor] KABC have not been able to reach an agreement on expanding the number of candidates at tomorrow’s debate. As a result, USC has made the difficult decision to cancel tomorrow’s debate and will look for other opportunities to educate voters on the candidates and issues.”

The move came hours after Democratic legislative leaders called on voters to boycott the debate if the university did not invite candidates who were excluded from participating.

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The unsparing letter added another layer of controversy to Tuesday’s forum.

“We are writing to demand you open the March 24 gubernatorial debate to all leading candidates,” said the letter sent Monday evening to USC President Beong-Soo Kim by Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas (D-Hollister), Senate President Pro Tem Monique Limón (D-Goleta) and the leaders of the legislative Latino, Black, Asian and Pacific Islander, Native American, LGBTQ, Jewish and women’s caucuses. “The outcry over this debate is deafening and includes legal demands from the excluded candidates’ attorneys, public calls by elected leaders across the state, concerns from the included candidates’ own campaigns, and growing alarm from California voters. Instead of responding to these valid concerns by expanding the debate, USC has doubled down.”

USC officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment Monday evening after the letter was sent. Tuesday’s debate was set to take place less than two months before ballots begin arriving in voters’ mailboxes, in the midst of a gubernatorial contest with a sprawling field of candidates that is more unpredictable than any statewide race in recent memory.

Political scientists, public policy professors and researchers associated with USC, UCLA, Stanford, Harvard and several other universities across the nation issued a letter Monday defending Christian Grose, the USC political science professor who developed the methodology that determined which candidates were invited to participate in the debate.

They called on the university to publicly defend Grose, arguing that although scholarly debate is important, the criticism about the debate criteria he fashioned had turned ugly and was part of a broader effort to chill academic speech.

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“What Professor Grose has faced … is not substantive or methodological debate. Attacks and insinuations from members of the political classes include completely baseless allegations of election-rigging, inconsistency, bias, and data manipulation,” the letter said. “These are harmful character assassinations. … They are of a piece with other attempts to strong-arm or malign scholars that have become all too common in America.”

The controversy over the methodology the university used to select candidates centered on the inclusion of San José Mayor Matt Mahan — a white candidate who recently entered the race and is polling poorly — while former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former state Controller Betty Yee were excluded.

“The university’s selection process — built on a formula never before used for a debate of this scale, has delivered a result that is biased,” the legislative leaders’ letter said. “When a methodology produces this outcome — one that elevates a candidate with notable ties to USC’s donor community and the co-director of the Dornsife Center for the Political Future — the burden falls on USC to explain itself, not on everyone else to accept it. If USC does not do the right thing, we call on California voters to boycott this debate.”

Mike Murphy, a co-director of the USC center hosting the debate, which was also co-sponsored by Univision, has been voluntarily advising an independent expenditure committee backing Mahan. The veteran GOP strategist previously said he had nothing to do with organizing the debate and that he had asked for unpaid leave at the university through the June 2 primary if he were to take a paid role.

USC has also received tens of millions of dollars in donations from billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso and his wife. Caruso, a USC alumnus who served as a trustee for years, is also a Mahan supporter.

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“I had no conversations with the debate hosts or organizers,” Caruso said in a statement to The Times on Monday. “This is the most important election for California in a generation, and I encourage everyone to be engaged, learn as much as possible about each candidate, then form an opinion who can move California forward in the most positive of ways. Watching debates is a part of that process. That is why I believe debates should include all the credible candidates.”

The debate sponsors released a joint statement on Friday defending their decision.

“We want to be clear that we categorically, unequivocally deny any allegations that the debate criteria was in any way biased in favor or against any candidate and want to clarify the facts,” said the statement by the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future and its broadcast partners. “The methodology was based on well-established metrics consistent with formulas widely used to set debate participation nationwide — a combination of polling and fundraising — and developed without regard to any particular candidate.”

Hours later, the four prominent Democrats who were excluded from the debate called on their rivals to boycott the event, reiterating their concerns that the criteria used to determine who was invited to participate resulted in every prominent candidate of color being excluded from the forum.

The Democrats who were set to participate in the debate — Rep. Eric Swalwell of Dublin, former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer and Mahan — condemned USC’s selection criteria but did not pull out of the debate.

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“It is a shame that USC has decided to elevate one candidate at the expense of others,” Swalwell wrote on X on Sunday. “USC, and every host of a gubernatorial debate, should employ fair, objective, and honest criteria for all candidates. I remain hopeful they will do so Tuesday night.”

Porter expressed similar thoughts.

“Criteria used to determine which candidates qualify to participate in a debate must be transparent, fair, and objective,” she wrote on X. “I’m disappointed by how USC handled the process for Tuesday’s debate. Candidates and Californians deserve answers.”

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