Politics
In 2024 Elections, Most Races Were Over Before They Started
Competition is an endangered species in legislative elections.
A New York Times analysis of the nearly 6,000 congressional and state legislative elections in November shows just how few races were true races. Nearly all either were dominated by an incumbent or played out in a district drawn to favor one party overwhelmingly. The result was a blizzard of blowouts, even in a country that is narrowly divided on politics.
Just 8 percent of congressional races (36 of 435) and 7 percent of state legislative races (400 of 5,465) were decided by fewer than five percentage points, according to The Times’s analysis.
Consequences from the death of competition are readily apparent. Roughly 90 percent of races are now decided not by general-election voters in November but by the partisans who tend to vote in primaries months earlier. That favors candidates who appeal to ideological voters and lawmakers who are less likely to compromise. It exacerbates the polarization that has led to deadlock in Congress and in statehouses.
“Because of partisan and racial gerrymandering, you end up with these skewed results and legislative bodies that don’t necessarily reflect the political makeup of either the states or, writ large, the House of Representatives representing the political desires of the American people,” said Eric H. Holder Jr., the attorney general in the Obama administration who, as chair of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, has criticized the mapmaking process and at times even called out his own party’s redistricting practices.
In 2020, the last time that once-a-decade national exercise took place, both parties largely followed a similar strategy. Their maps typically made districts safer by stocking them with voters from one party, rather than breaking them up in an effort to pick up seats. Republicans, as the party in control of the process in more states, drew more of these slanted districts than Democrats.
Other factors have contributed to vanishing competition, including demographic shifts and “political sorting” — the tendency of like-minded citizens to live in the same community. But the role of redistricting is evident when zooming in on a single state.
Take, for example, Texas, where in 2020, before redistricting, 10 of 38 congressional races were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer. In 2024, just two races were. In five races last year, Democrats did not even run a candidate, ceding the seat to Republicans. One Democrat ran unopposed.
In state legislatures, where lawmakers are drawing maps for their own districts, safe seats abound.
There are 181 state legislative seats in Texas, with 31 senators and 150 representatives. In 2024, just four of those elections — three in the Statehouse and one in the State Senate — were decided by five points or fewer, according to The Times’s analysis.
“Legislatures draw maps in most places, and the reality is, a big concern for members who have to pass these bills is: ‘What happens to my district?’” said Michael Li, a senior counsel for the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. “Very few members are willing to say, ‘Oh, gosh, I should have a more competitive district.’ So there is an inherent conflict of interest in the way that we draw districts.”
Adam Kincaid, the director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, said that making seats safer was always the goal.
“We made no bones about the fact that we’re going to shore up incumbents, and where we had opportunities to go on offense, we were going to do that,” Mr. Kincaid said. “So what that means is bringing a whole lot of Republican seats that were otherwise in jeopardy off the board.”
The Power of a Map
While it is easy to focus on the candidates, the money, the message or the economy, increasingly it is the maps that determine the outcome. In North Carolina, they may have decided control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Only one of the state’s 14 congressional districts was decided by fewer than five points. A Republican won the state’s next closest race — by 14 points.
In 2022, the State Supreme Court ordered a more competitive map, but it was tossed out after midterm elections shook up the balance of the court. The replacement, which was drawn by the Republican-led Legislature, gave three Democratic seats to the G.O.P. while making nearly every district safer for the party that held it.
It is impossible to know how elections held under the first map would have turned out. But, according to Justin Levitt, a redistricting law expert at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles, “had every seat stayed the same as in 2022, those three seats would have made the difference, and Democrats would have had a one-seat majority” in Congress.
Of course, North Carolina played a pivotal role because the margin in the House was so small. Gerrymanders nudge the political balance in every election, but the 2024 vote was the rare occasion in which they were decisive.
North Carolina’s role in the 2024 House elections follows a historic U.S. Supreme Court ruling in 2019 — involving partisan congressional maps in North Carolina — in which the court called partisan gerrymanders a political problem outside federal courts’ jurisdiction.
Even though those maps were “blatant examples of partisanship driving districting decisions,” the majority wrote, “state statutes and state constitutions can provide standards and guidance for state courts to apply.”
Almost unnoticed, other battles over slanted congressional maps that could affect the 2026 elections are crawling though state and federal courts — in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina (again), South Carolina, Texas and Utah.
Of all those lawsuits, the one most likely to affect the next House elections appears to be in Utah, where Salt Lake City, the state’s liberal hub, was carved into four districts to water down the impact of Democratic voters on House races.
Democrats appear likely to pick up a single House seat from that litigation, which faces a crucial court hearing on Friday.
Nationwide Decline
North Carolina is hardly an outlier.
In Illinois, a state dominated by Democrats, no congressional election was within a five-point margin, and just two were within 10 points. In Maryland, just one district was within a five-point margin.
Georgia did not have a single congressional district within a 10-point margin, out of 14 seats. The state’s closest race was the 13-point victory by Representative Sanford Bishop, a Democrat, in the Second Congressional District.
At the state legislative level, the numbers were even starker.
In Georgia, just five of the 236 state legislative seats, or 2 percent, were decided by five points or fewer, and more than half of the races were uncontested. In Florida, 10 of the 160 state legislative races were within a five-point margin.
With so few general elections to worry about, tribalism can take over in legislatures, leaving many elected officials to worry only about primary challenges, often from their party’s fringes. In the modern climate of political polarization, the lack of competitive districts not only removes an incentive to work with the other party but actively deters doing so.
“As competitive districts dwindle, so do incentives to compromise,” said Steve Israel, a former Democratic congressman from New York and the former chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “I remember campaigning on bipartisanship in a very moderate district in my first election in 2000. By the time I left in 2017, talking about crossing the aisle was like announcing a walk to my own firing squad.”
Denise Powell, a political organizer, won the Democratic primary election in a key Nebraska House district, according to The Associated Press.
She will face Brinker Harding, a Republican city councilman, in the general election, a pivotal contest in a battleground district that comes as Democrats try to recapture control of Congress this fall.
Representative Don Bacon, the Republican incumbent in the district and a frequent critic of President Trump, chose not to run for re-election, setting up a high-profile clash for an open seat in Omaha.
Ms. Powell narrowly triumphed in a competitive Democratic primary that centered on an unusual argument: that electing her chief rival, State Senator John Cavanaugh, could make it easier for Republicans to win the White House in 2028.
The argument stemmed from the way Nebraska allocates its electoral votes in presidential elections. Most states follow a winner-take-all approach, but Nebraska gives just two of its votes to the statewide winner, then gives one to the winner of each of its three congressional districts. In recent elections, the Omaha-area district has typically gone blue in presidential contests and awarded its electoral vote accordingly, even as the two other Nebraska congressional districts typically went to the Republican candidate.
That could make a difference in a close presidential contest.
State Republicans have tried to repeal the so-called blue dot system — named for the blue, liberal dot Omaha represents in a sea of Republican red — but Democrats in the State Legislature have been able to block that effort.
Mr. Cavanaugh’s opponents argued that if he won the House primary and left the State Senate, it would mean one fewer vote to keep the blue dot. Mr. Cavanaugh argued that the system was safe, and that Democrats were likely to be elected in other State Senate seats to compensate for his departure.
The argument may have been enough to help Ms. Powell to victory. A super PAC with ties to Republicans also spent against Mr. Cavanaugh.
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
President Donald Trump opened his high-stakes meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping by predicting a “fantastic future together” — striking an unusually warm tone as his administration pursues new trade and investment deals with Beijing.
“In fact, the longest relationship of our two countries that any president and president has had,” Trump said at the start of the bilateral meeting Thursday local time. “We’ve had a fantastic relationship. We’ve gotten along.”
“And whenever we had a problem, we worked that out very quickly,” he continued. “We’re going to have a fantastic future together.”
Trump also praised Xi directly, calling him “a great leader” and emphasizing the personal relationship between the two leaders as a foundation for future cooperation.
President Donald Trump opened his high-stakes meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping by predicting a “fantastic future together.” (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
TRUMP HEADS TO BEIJING FOR HIGH-STAKES XI TALKS AS TAIWAN TENSIONS, TRADE DISPUTES TEST US STRENGTH
Xi, in his own opening remarks, emphasized cooperation and shared interests between the two countries.
“As leaders of major countries, this year is the 250th anniversary of American independence,” Xi said, according to a translator. “Congratulations to you and to the American people. I always believe that our two countries have more common interests than differences.”
“Success in one is an opportunity for the other, and a stable bilateral relationship is good for the world,” he continued.
XI JINPING WARNS TRUMP US WOULD ‘LOSE FROM CONFRONTATION’ WITH CHINA AS RENEWED TRADE WAR LOOMS
“China and the United States both stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. We should be partners, not rivals. We should help each other succeed and prosper together, and find the right way for major countries to get along well with each other in the new era.”
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a bilateral meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026, to discuss the Iran conflict, trade imbalances, the Taiwan situation, and to establish new bilateral boards for economic and AI oversight. (Evan Vucci/Reuters)
Xi added that he looked forward to working with Trump “to set the course for and steer the giant ship of China–U.S. relations so as to make 2026 a historic landmark year that opens up a new chapter in China–U.S. relations.”
The comments came as Trump arrived in Beijing accompanied by a delegation of top American executives, underscoring the administration’s focus on economic dealmaking even as broader tensions between the two countries remain unresolved.
INSIDE THE ‘DIGITAL LOCKDOWN’ FOR US OFFICIALS AS TRUMP ARRIVES IN CHINA
“I just want to say, on behalf of all of the great delegation that we have … we have the greatest businessmen,” Trump said. “We ask the top 30 in the world. Every single one of them said yes.”
The delegation includes executives from major U.S. firms spanning aerospace, finance, technology and agriculture, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon.
White House officials said ahead of the trip that Americans should expect the president to “deliver more good deals,” with talks expected to include aerospace, agriculture and energy, as well as continued work on a proposed U.S.-China “Board of Trade” and “Board of Investment.”
The emphasis on dealmaking comes after years of friction between Washington and Beijing over trade, technology and military competition. (Kenny Holston/Pool via Reuters)
A senior administration official said the potential trade framework under discussion could involve “double-digit billion” levels of commerce, along with possible purchase commitments from China in areas such as aircraft and agricultural products.
The emphasis on dealmaking comes after years of friction between Washington and Beijing over trade, technology and military competition.
Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods — a policy he has continued into his second term — while repeatedly accusing Beijing of unfair trade practices.
He also has criticized past U.S. policy that helped integrate China into the global trading system, arguing Beijing benefited from open markets without offering the same access in return.
But in his opening remarks Thursday, the president emphasized business ties and personal rapport, highlighting what appeared to be an effort to stabilize economic relations between the world’s two largest economies.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
The comments came as administration officials said trade discussions with China are ongoing, alongside talks on issues including Iran, artificial intelligence and other security matters.
Trump’s praise of Xi is consistent with his longstanding approach of using personal diplomacy with foreign leaders, including rivals, as a negotiating tactic — though whether that approach will translate into concrete agreements with China remains to be seen.
BEIJING — An extraordinary display of power and precision along Tiananmen Square greeted President Trump in Beijing on Thursday, kicking off a two-day summit with particularly high stakes for the Americans.
Trump’s meetings with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, began at the Great Hall of the People moments after a welcome ceremony that seemed to impress the president, featuring a Chinese military honor guard and a greeting from excited schoolchildren. American flags waved as “The Star Spangled Banner” rang out on a smoggy day in the heart of the capital.
Children holding Chinese and U.S. flags rehearse before the welcome ceremony for President Trump.
(Maxim Shemetov / Associated Press)
Trump reflected on the stakes of his visit at the top of the meeting, telling Xi that the ceremony was an honor “like few I’ve seen before.”
“There are those who say it may be the biggest summit ever,” he said. “I have such respect for China, the job you’ve done.”
Both men struck a conciliatory tone, despite the agenda for the summit featuring some of the thorniest issues facing the two superpowers today, including the U.S. war in Iran, trade relations and the future of Taiwan.
“We’ve gotten along — when there have been difficulties, we’ve worked it out,” Trump added. “We’re going to have a fantastic future together.”
Trump is expected to ask Xi for help reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital commercial waterway disrupted by Iran since the start of the war, and for the extension of a truce in the trade war he started at the beginning of his second term.
China, in turn, will ask the Trump administration not to proceed with arms sales to Taiwan, despite their approval by Congress, and for a declaration of opposition to Taiwanese independence. Beijing also seeks access to top-end chips made by American manufacturers.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump shake hands at the Great Hall of the People.
(Kenny Holston / Associated Press)
The agenda exposes the mutual dependence of the two rival superpowers, marked by distrust but driven by a quest for cooperation and stability.
The welcome ceremony outside the Great Hall kicked off with Xi shaking the hands of Trump’s delegation, including figures such as his political advisor, James Blair, his communications director, Steven Cheung, and his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump.
They were just a few members of a U.S. delegation accompanying Trump filled with curiosities.
Chinese officials were surprised to learn that Pete Hegseth was joining Trump in Beijing this week, marking the first time a president has brought his secretary of Defense on an official state visit. It wasn’t immediately clear to the Chinese what his inclusion was meant to convey.
Eric Trump, the president’s son, is here, seeking to leverage the family name for lucrative business deals as Beijing aggressively campaigns against government corruption at home. And First Lady Melania Trump decided to stay at home, an unusual snub of such a high-level event.
A contingent of U.S. business leaders was given little notice to prepare for the trip, including the chief executive of Nvidia, who raced to join Trump aboard Air Force One at a refueling stop in Alaska.
The diplomatic faux pas follow weeks of Chinese frustration over what they see as the Trump administration’s lack of preparation — a perceived display of incompetence that boosts their confidence heading into the negotiations.
Over the course of the visit, Trump is expected to visit the Temple of Heaven, a monument to imperial China and Confucian thought in the center of Beijing. Ahead of Trump’s arrival, an area roughly the size of 400 American football fields was closed in preparation for a stop here.
On Thursday night, local time, Trump will return to the Great Hall of the People for a banquet dinner. Additional meetings are scheduled for Friday morning before Trump departs midday for home.
-
Detroit, MI14 minutes agoWhat big announcement at DPSCD Hall of Fame Gala could mean for Detroit students
-
San Francisco, CA26 minutes agoCasting shade on shadows: S.F. supervisor seeks to bar using shadows to block new housing
-
Dallas, TX32 minutes agoDallas Approves $180,500 for New Botham Jean Boulevard Street Signs
-
Miami, FL38 minutes agoMiami residents sue over land for Trump presidential library
-
Boston, MA44 minutes agoBoston has a secret society built on opium money in ‘The Society’
-
Denver, CO50 minutes agoDenver weather: Nearing record highs again
-
Seattle, WA56 minutes agoSeattle weather: Increasing clouds and cool showers on Thursday
-
San Diego, CA1 hour agoDaily Business Report: May 14, 2026, San Diego Metro Magazine