Politics
In 2024 Elections, Most Races Were Over Before They Started
Competition is an endangered species in legislative elections.
A New York Times analysis of the nearly 6,000 congressional and state legislative elections in November shows just how few races were true races. Nearly all either were dominated by an incumbent or played out in a district drawn to favor one party overwhelmingly. The result was a blizzard of blowouts, even in a country that is narrowly divided on politics.
Just 8 percent of congressional races (36 of 435) and 7 percent of state legislative races (400 of 5,465) were decided by fewer than five percentage points, according to The Times’s analysis.
Consequences from the death of competition are readily apparent. Roughly 90 percent of races are now decided not by general-election voters in November but by the partisans who tend to vote in primaries months earlier. That favors candidates who appeal to ideological voters and lawmakers who are less likely to compromise. It exacerbates the polarization that has led to deadlock in Congress and in statehouses.
“Because of partisan and racial gerrymandering, you end up with these skewed results and legislative bodies that don’t necessarily reflect the political makeup of either the states or, writ large, the House of Representatives representing the political desires of the American people,” said Eric H. Holder Jr., the attorney general in the Obama administration who, as chair of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, has criticized the mapmaking process and at times even called out his own party’s redistricting practices.
In 2020, the last time that once-a-decade national exercise took place, both parties largely followed a similar strategy. Their maps typically made districts safer by stocking them with voters from one party, rather than breaking them up in an effort to pick up seats. Republicans, as the party in control of the process in more states, drew more of these slanted districts than Democrats.
Other factors have contributed to vanishing competition, including demographic shifts and “political sorting” — the tendency of like-minded citizens to live in the same community. But the role of redistricting is evident when zooming in on a single state.
Take, for example, Texas, where in 2020, before redistricting, 10 of 38 congressional races were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer. In 2024, just two races were. In five races last year, Democrats did not even run a candidate, ceding the seat to Republicans. One Democrat ran unopposed.
In state legislatures, where lawmakers are drawing maps for their own districts, safe seats abound.
There are 181 state legislative seats in Texas, with 31 senators and 150 representatives. In 2024, just four of those elections — three in the Statehouse and one in the State Senate — were decided by five points or fewer, according to The Times’s analysis.
“Legislatures draw maps in most places, and the reality is, a big concern for members who have to pass these bills is: ‘What happens to my district?’” said Michael Li, a senior counsel for the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. “Very few members are willing to say, ‘Oh, gosh, I should have a more competitive district.’ So there is an inherent conflict of interest in the way that we draw districts.”
Adam Kincaid, the director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, said that making seats safer was always the goal.
“We made no bones about the fact that we’re going to shore up incumbents, and where we had opportunities to go on offense, we were going to do that,” Mr. Kincaid said. “So what that means is bringing a whole lot of Republican seats that were otherwise in jeopardy off the board.”
The Power of a Map
While it is easy to focus on the candidates, the money, the message or the economy, increasingly it is the maps that determine the outcome. In North Carolina, they may have decided control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Only one of the state’s 14 congressional districts was decided by fewer than five points. A Republican won the state’s next closest race — by 14 points.
In 2022, the State Supreme Court ordered a more competitive map, but it was tossed out after midterm elections shook up the balance of the court. The replacement, which was drawn by the Republican-led Legislature, gave three Democratic seats to the G.O.P. while making nearly every district safer for the party that held it.
It is impossible to know how elections held under the first map would have turned out. But, according to Justin Levitt, a redistricting law expert at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles, “had every seat stayed the same as in 2022, those three seats would have made the difference, and Democrats would have had a one-seat majority” in Congress.
Of course, North Carolina played a pivotal role because the margin in the House was so small. Gerrymanders nudge the political balance in every election, but the 2024 vote was the rare occasion in which they were decisive.
North Carolina’s role in the 2024 House elections follows a historic U.S. Supreme Court ruling in 2019 — involving partisan congressional maps in North Carolina — in which the court called partisan gerrymanders a political problem outside federal courts’ jurisdiction.
Even though those maps were “blatant examples of partisanship driving districting decisions,” the majority wrote, “state statutes and state constitutions can provide standards and guidance for state courts to apply.”
Almost unnoticed, other battles over slanted congressional maps that could affect the 2026 elections are crawling though state and federal courts — in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina (again), South Carolina, Texas and Utah.
Of all those lawsuits, the one most likely to affect the next House elections appears to be in Utah, where Salt Lake City, the state’s liberal hub, was carved into four districts to water down the impact of Democratic voters on House races.
Democrats appear likely to pick up a single House seat from that litigation, which faces a crucial court hearing on Friday.
Nationwide Decline
North Carolina is hardly an outlier.
In Illinois, a state dominated by Democrats, no congressional election was within a five-point margin, and just two were within 10 points. In Maryland, just one district was within a five-point margin.
Georgia did not have a single congressional district within a 10-point margin, out of 14 seats. The state’s closest race was the 13-point victory by Representative Sanford Bishop, a Democrat, in the Second Congressional District.
At the state legislative level, the numbers were even starker.
In Georgia, just five of the 236 state legislative seats, or 2 percent, were decided by five points or fewer, and more than half of the races were uncontested. In Florida, 10 of the 160 state legislative races were within a five-point margin.
With so few general elections to worry about, tribalism can take over in legislatures, leaving many elected officials to worry only about primary challenges, often from their party’s fringes. In the modern climate of political polarization, the lack of competitive districts not only removes an incentive to work with the other party but actively deters doing so.
“As competitive districts dwindle, so do incentives to compromise,” said Steve Israel, a former Democratic congressman from New York and the former chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “I remember campaigning on bipartisanship in a very moderate district in my first election in 2000. By the time I left in 2017, talking about crossing the aisle was like announcing a walk to my own firing squad.”
(Rev. 4/30/2014 Search Warrant
FILED IN CHAMBERS
U.S.D.C ATLANTA
In the Matter of the Search of:
United States District Court
Northern District of Georgia
The premises located at The Office of the Clerk of Court, 5600 Campbellton Fairburn Road, Fairburn, Georgia 30213
Jan 28 2026
Date:
KEVIN P. WEIMER, Clerk
By:
APPLICATION & AFFIDAVIT FOR SEARCH WARRAN
CASE NUMBER: 1:26-MC-0177
Nicole Lawson Jenkins
Deputy Clerk
UNDER SEAL
I, Hugh Raymond Evans, being duly sworn, depose and say:
I am a(n) Special Agent of FBI and have reason to believe that, on the property or premises known as
The Office of the Clerk of Court, 5600 Campbellton Fairburn Road, Fairburn, Georgia 30213 There is now concealed certain property, certain data, and certain information, namely,
See Attachment B
which constitutes evidence of the commission of a criminal offense and property which has been used as the means of committing a criminal offense, concerning violations of Title 52, United States Code, Sections 20701 and 20511, over which the United States District Court for the Northern District of Georgia has jurisdiction. The facts to support a finding of Probable Cause are as follows:
SEE ATTACHED AFFIDAVIT
Continued on the attached sheet and made a part hereof.
Sworn to me by telephone pursuant to Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 4.1
Yes No
えん
Signature of Affiant
Hugh Raymond Evans
January 28, 2026
Date
CATHERINE M. SALINAS
UNITED STATES MAGISTRATE JUDGE
Name and Title of Judicial Officer
Attorney for the Government Thomas Albus
(USAMOE)/314-539-2200/Thomas. Albus@usdoj.gov
at
Atlanta, Georgia
City and State
Catherine Saling
Signature of Judicial Officer
Politics
House Dem explodes on top Trump immigration official, says he ‘better hope’ for pardon from president
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Progressive Rep. Shri Thanedar, D-Mich., exploded on U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Rodney Scott, calling federal immigration officers “thugs” and telling the commissioner he “better hope” for a presidential pardon during a particularly heated House hearing on Tuesday.
Thanedar, who is originally from India and immigrated to the U.S. in the 1980’s, drilled into Scott, saying, “You better hope you get pardoned because you will be held accountable for the absolute disregard of the law your agencies have shown over the past year.”
The exchange occurred during a House Homeland Security hearing on “Oversight of the Department of Homeland Security: ICE, CBP, and USCIS.” During the hearing, Thanedar grilled Scott and Acting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Director Todd Lyons on the recent shooting of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal officers in Minnesota.
After Lyons and Scott repeatedly backed their officers through Thanedar’s questioning, the congressman said, “I have heard and seen enough. I’m just sick and tired of your agents running around in our cities, in our streets, causing illegal activities, ICE thugs attacking our communities, using our children as bait, referring to people as bodies and numbers, targeting people for their accents and the color of their skin, and killing American citizens, all while showing zero remorse for their actions.”
DEMOCRATS DEMAND KRISTI NOEM BE FIRED OR WARN IMPEACHMENT WILL FOLLOW
Rep. Shri Thanedar at the U.S. Capitol on April 10, 2025. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Going further, Thanedar asked, “Director Lyons and Commissioner Scott, do you think President Trump will pardon you and your boss, Kristi Noem, before he leaves office, just like he has for insurrectionists and his political allies? Do you believe President Trump will pardon you?”
Scott answered, “I’m not going to speak on behalf of President Trump, but I’ll tell you, I signed up for this job to protect America, and I’m very proud of the service that I provide, and I don’t need a pardon from anybody.”
“Well, you’d better hope so. You better hope you get pardoned,” Thanedar shot back. “Because you will be held accountable for the absolute disregard of the law your agencies have shown over the past year.”
ICE ARRESTS MURDERERS, PEDOPHILES DURING SUPER BOWL WEEKEND AS AGENTS SAY HALFTIME SHOW ‘DEMONIZED’ THEM
From left, Rodney Scott, commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Joseph Edlow, director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and Todd Lyons, acting director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, are sworn in during a House Committee on Homeland Security oversight hearing of the Department of Homeland Security: ICE CBP and USCIS, on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Tom Brenner)
Thanedar continued, “Your agencies have lost the trust of the American people, with millions taking to the streets to protect the illegal actions of your agencies. And that’s why I introduced a bill in the United States Congress to abolish ICE. ICE must be abolished.”
The congressman added that he “also co-sponsored a bill to impeach” Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, saying, “I believe Kristi Noem must be impeached, and this Congress must do everything in its power to carry out oversight actions against these rogue departments.”
ICE ACTING DIRECTOR SAYS MINNESOTA BODYCAM FOOTAGE WILL BE RELEASED AMID TRANSPARENCY PUSH
DHS Secretary Kristi Noem speaks at a news conference at One World Trade Center in New York on Jan. 8, 2026. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
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Before Thanedar finished, Homeland Security Committee Chair Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., cut in, saying, “The gentleman’s time is expired” and calling the hearing into recess.
WASHINGTON — The leaders of the agencies enforcing President Trump’s immigration crackdown faced tough questioning on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, with one Democratic lawmaker asking the head of ICE if he would apologize to the families of two U.S. citizens killed by federal agents and called domestic terrorists by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
Todd Lyons, acting head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, declined to apologize to the families of Renee Good and Alex Pretti during the hearing but said he welcomed the opportunity to speak to Good’s family in private.
“I’m not going to speak to any ongoing investigation,” Lyons said.
For the first time since the federal operation in Minneapolis led to the deaths of Good and Pretti, the heads of three immigration agencies testified before the House Homeland Security Committee.
Along with Lyons, the other witnesses were Joseph Edlow, director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, and Rodney Scott, commissioner of Customs and Border Protection. Their agencies fall under the Department of Homeland Security.
Democrats and some Republicans have called for increased oversight of the Trump administration’s immigration operations since the shootings last month of Good and Pretti, both 37, by federal agents.
In the aftermath of the shootings, the administration replaced Gregory Bovino, a Border Patrol official who led the charge in Minneapolis, with border policy advisor Tom Homan, a former ICE official. Officials also withdrew some agents and began requiring those in Minneapolis to wear body cameras.
“We must take the temperature down and look at the record of enforcement actions through rational eyes,” said the committee’s chair, Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.).
Garbarino asked for commitment from the ICE and CBP leaders to give the committee the full reports and findings of the investigations into the shootings of Good and Pretti once those conclude. Scott and Lyons agreed.
Scott, the CBP commissioner, told the committee members that officers face an unprecedented increase in attacks by people who interfere with law enforcement action. He said these actions are “coordinated and well-funded.”
“This is not peaceful protest,” he said.
Lyons, the ICE leader, told lawmakers that his agency has removed more than 475,000 people from the U.S. and conducted nearly 379,000 arrests since President Trump returned to the White House. He said the agency has hired more than 12,000 officers and agents.
He condemned so-called sanctuary jurisdictions, which limit the collaboration between local law enforcement and ICE, as well as the rhetoric from public officials against ICE.
Lyons testified that 3,000 out of 13,000 ICE agents wear body cameras. Scott estimated that about 10,000 of 20,000 Border Patrol agents wear cameras, adding that “we’re building that program out.”
The agency heads faced intense questioning from Democrats on the committee, including those from California.
Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin) asked Lyons about his comment last year that the deportation process should work “like Amazon Prime, but with human beings.”
Lyons said the comment had been taken out of context.
“I did say that we need to be more efficient when it comes to removing individuals from the United States, because ICE doesn’t detain people punitively — we detain to remove,” he said. “I don’t want to see people in custody.”
“Well, speaking of human beings, how many times has Amazon Prime shot a nurse 10 times in the back?” Swalwell responded.
Swalwell asked how many agents have been fired for their conduct under Lyons’ leadership. Lyons said he would get that data.
“Can you tell us if, at least — God, I hope at least one person has been fired for their conduct since these operations have begun,” Swalwell said.
Lyons said he wouldn’t talk about personnel.
Swalwell was the one who asked Lyons if he would apologize to the families of Good and Pretti. He also asked if Lyons would resign from ICE. Lyons declined.
Rep. Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana) questioned Lyons about whether carrying a U.S. passport is enough for people to avoid being detained or deported. An October report by ProPublica identified more than 170 instances of U.S. citizens who were detained at raids or protests.
Lyons said U.S. citizens shouldn’t feel the need to carry their passports.
“No American citizen will be arrested for being an American citizen,” Lyons said.
Correa said a number of U.S. citizens in his district, which is majority Latino, have been detained, some for several days.
Lyons said he wasn’t aware of any cases of detained American citizens.
“Are you surveilling U.S. citizens today?” Correa asked.
Lyons said there is no database for protesters.
“I can assure you there is no database that’s tracking down citizens,” he said.
This is a developing story and will be updated.
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