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Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins, and why?

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Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins, and why?


SEC football is back this weekend as No. 4 Tennessee hits the road a second-straight week in a matchup against Arkansas in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday night. Let’s check in with our latest prediction for the game.

Arkansas is 12 combined points away from being undefeated, holding leads against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, but ultimately losing those games as a result of ill-timed ball security issues and some offensive mistakes, resulting in a 3-2 mark.

Tennessee is angling for an SEC title and more, sitting at 4-0 behind the nation’s No. 1 ranked total defense, 1 of 2 teams to allow under 200 yards per game and under 800 yards total this season.

What can we make of the matchup?

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Here’s what you should watch out for as Arkansas hosts Tennessee in this Week 6 college football game with our updated prediction.

1. Hogs on the ground. Utah transfer back Ja’Quinden Jackson has been key to the Razorbacks’ offense, running for more than 100 yards in his first 3 games, and he leads the SEC with 509 rushing yards and is second with 9 touchdowns. 

Tennessee is 2nd in FBS against the run, allowing just under 51 yards per game on the ground. And while Jackson is 1 of 3 SEC backs to average more than 100 yards per game, his output against conference teams is limited, averaging 56 yards despite playing against 2 of the league’s worst run defense teams.

2. Turnovers. Arkansas has suffered some very badly-timed turnovers this season, as quarterback Taylen Green threw a pick-six that allowed Oklahoma State to mount a comeback, and he threw another pick and then fumbled late in regulation last week. 

The Hogs are 89th in turnover margin and are second-worst in the SEC with 9 giveaways. The Vols have recovered 5 fumbles this season, and have forced 3 takeaways in their last three 3 games away from Rocky Top.

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3. At the line. Stopping the run is Arkansas’ strength on defense thus far behind a decent front seven rotation, ranking 21st in FBS by allowing just 93 yards per game rushing.

Tennessee is 4th nationally with 290 rushing yards per game and lead back Dylan Sampson is averaging more than 112 yards himself and is 1 of 2 backs in the country with 10 rushing touchdowns.

Most analytical models favor the Volunteers against the Razorbacks in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is projected to win the game in the majority 82.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

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That leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in the remaining 17.9 percent of sims.

Tennessee is projected to be 14 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More … Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction: What the analytics say

Tennessee is a 13.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 56.5 points for the game.

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And it listed the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -525 and for Arkansas at +400 to win outright.

A decent majority of bets are projecting the Vols will get the better of the Hogs.

About 58 percent of bettors are expecting that Tennessee will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 42 percent of wagers suggest that Arkansas will either win in an upset, or, more likely, will keep the game under two touchdowns.

There isn’t a phase in this game where Tennessee’s defense should be at any major disadvantage, especially when generating pressure from the nucleus of this unit, its elite front seven rotation.

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And while Arkansas has struggled in pass protection during stretches this season, it is a relative strength when blocking for the run, resulting in the team’s strong rushing numbers to date.

The presence of mobile quarterback Taylen Green is a plus, as he can spice up the offense with a battery of scripted and unscripted runs to throw tacklers out of place, even if there are times when he forces a play that results in a turnover.

His scrambles and Jackson’s physical rushing style will find the Vols’ tacklers on the back foot often enough to keep it close, but the Razorbacks do have one marked weakness for UT to exploit.

Arkansas is third-worst in the SEC in pass defense, allowing just under 227 passing yards per game, and that’s despite playing against some substandard passing offenses so far.

Nico Iamaleava and Tennessee’s superb skill threats are another animal, and this feels like the game where Josh Heupel opens up the playbook a little more.

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College Football HQ picks …

More … Tennessee vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Trump touted gas prices under $2.30. Tennessee gas prices say otherwise

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Trump touted gas prices under .30. Tennessee gas prices say otherwise



Gas prices are much higher than Trump claimed in Tennessee.

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  • President Donald Trump bragged about low gas prices for drivers during State of the Union address.
  • Only 8 out of 150,000 gas stations are selling gas below $2 a gallon. TN gas prices are much higher.

President Donald Trump bragged about low gas prices during his State of the Union address Feb. 24, but prices are considerably higher than he claimed — even in Tennessee, where gas usually costs less than the national average.

AAA.com’s national average gas price stands at $2.98, almost an entire dollar-per-gallon higher than Trump’s claims of gas costing “$1.99 in some states” based on CNN fact checking. Here’s how Tennessee’s actual gas prices compare to Trump’s claims.

How much does gas cost in Tennessee compared to Trump’s claims?

Tennessee’s current gas price is $2.56 a gallon, according to AAA. That is about 57 cents higher than the prices Trump said gas cost in some states during his State of the Union address. It is also 26 cents higher than the $2.30-per-gallon price Trump claimed was common in most states, according to CNN.

Tennessee is one of the few states selling gas for under $2.60 a gallon. In fact, the Volunteer State has some of the lowest gas prices in the nation as of late February. TN average gas prices are down 24 cents a gallon year-over-year from $2.80 a gallon.

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State gas prices have been on the decline in recent weeks. In contrast, some American drivers are paying over $4 a gallon for gas in 2026.

States with the highest gas prices in 2026

State Gas Price according to AAA
California $4.63
Hawaii $4.40
Washington $4.35
Oregon $3.92
Nevada $3.71

States like Oklahoma ($2.43), Kansas ($2.54) and Mississippi ($2.52) boast low gas prices, but the national average remains high.

While Trump touts gas prices under $2, national average is closer to $3

Petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan, released a statement titled, “The Real State of Fuel Prices,” before — and after — Trump’s address, which pointed out that the average price nationally for gas is closer to $3 a gallon.

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In his State of the Union speech, Trump said gas “reached a peak of over $6 a gallon in some states under my predecessor,” calling it “a disaster,” and added “it is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states. And in some places, $1.99 a gallon.”

A few weeks ago in Iowa, he claimed he even “saw $1.85 a gallon for gasoline.”

Gas prices, De Hann said, are lower on average than they were a year ago, but sub-$2 gas is “extremely rare.” Moreover, he pointed out that a president — whether to blame or credit — has limited control over the price of gasoline.

What a petroleum analyst says about Trump’s gas price claims

Gas prices did reach $1.85 a gallon in early January in Iowa De Haan said, but prices there “have since risen” and “at this moment, only 8 out of roughly 150,000 gas stations nationwide are selling gasoline below $2 a gallon.”

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Of those, four stations are in Texas, one is in Oklahoma and three are in Kansas.

De Haan also said that the lowest statewide average is $2.33 a gallon in Oklahoma, and that for about a month, prices at certain stations in Colorado “fell well below $2 per gallon, with some dropping into the $1.60s.”

But they were “highly localized competitive events.”

Mostly, De Haan pointed out, gas prices are determined by the global oil market, and partly by weather. Lower oil prices now, in contrast to when Biden was in office, means lower gas prices.

In addition, a surge of oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a cartel of oil-producing countries, has put downward pressure on prices. The freezing weather this winter has, too.

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Frank Witsil of The Detroit Free Press contributed to this story.

Contact Frank Witsil: 313-222-5022 or fwitsil@freepress.com



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LSU women ride hot third quarter into win over Tennessee in last regular-season home game

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LSU women ride hot third quarter into win over Tennessee in last regular-season home game


Tennessee shifted over toward Mikaylah Williams. So the LSU women’s basketball team’s star junior peered across the lane and roped a pass over the defense and down to Flau’jae Johnson, who buried a 3-pointer from the corner.

That bucket was an important one. It didn’t just give the No. 6 Tigers (25-4, 11-4 SEC) a 12-point lead late in the third quarter. It also marked the point at which they took control of their 89-73 win over the Lady Vols on Thursday — a victory orchestrated by their three-star guards.

Williams tallied 20 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and two steals. MiLaysia Fulwiley scored 18 points, grabbed six boards, blocked four shots and assisted three others. Johnson, on her senior night, shot only 3 of 10 from the field and 3 of 9 at the free-throw line but still finished with 10 points, becoming one of four LSU contributors to score in double figures.

The Tigers have now clinched a double bye in the SEC Tournament for the fifth year in a row.

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“Today it was,” coach Kim Mulkey said, “don’t settle for anything outside the paint until they take charges or they stop you. You just go right to the paint, and you score, and I thought we did that.”

Tennessee runs a unique system. Second-year coach Kim Caldwell makes hockey-style line changes, engages a full-court press for the whole game and encourages the Lady Vols (16-11, 8-7) to let their 3-pointers fly. They’re certainly dangerous. But they did enter Thursday’s matchup with losses in seven of their past nine games.

LSU was in much better shape. It just needed to collect Tennessee’s misses and minimize its turnovers to get the win, which it did, for the most part, in the second half. The Tigers may have allowed the Lady Vols to shoot 11 of 29 from beyond the arc, but they also gave up only seven offensive rebounds and coughed up just four possessions across the third and fourth quarters.

Freshman forward ZaKiyah Johnson added 14 points on 7-of-12 shooting and grabbed eight rebounds, while Grace Knox — another freshman forward — chipped in 13 points and nine boards. Sophomore point guard Jada Richard added nine points.

Tennessee had three players in double figures. Its leading scorer was Jaida Civil, a freshman guard who finished with 17 points.

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“We were moving the ball as a team,” Caldwell said. “ I think we were doing a really good job on the offensive glass. They obviously made the adjustment. That was harder for us coming out (of halftime), and they really picked up their effort at the rim, and we gave up a lot of second-chance points.”

The two teams traded hot shooting stretches in the first half. Tennessee struck first, using a trio of 3-pointers to string together a 9-0 run halfway through the first quarter. LSU then responded in the second by collecting misses and using them to build a 14-0 blitz, but it just couldn’t shake the turnover issues that the Lady Vols both forced and turned into points.

The Tigers led just 43-42 at halftime, but they began the fourth quarter with a much more commanding 70-59 advantage, in large part because they turned the ball over only once in the third. Williams — who became the 17th player in LSU history to eclipse 1,500 career points on Thursday — either scored or assisted seven of the 12 field goals LSU converted in that frame.

“I thought Mikaylah Williams really, really had a good game,” Mulkey said.

According to ESPN, Mulkey is now the first coach in SEC history to lead a team to at least 25 wins in each of the first five seasons of their tenure. Mulkey has eclipsed that number of victories in 23 of the 26 seasons of her head coaching career.

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LSU also honored seniors Izzy Besselman and Amiya Joyner on Thursday. Besselman is a former walk-on guard who’s missed the last two seasons while battling a heart condition. She checked in to the game to a loud ovation in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter, making her first appearance in a game since March 24, 2024.

Joyner is a 6-foot-2 forward who joined the Tigers ahead of this season as a transfer from East Carolina. She’s started each of the past four games, and on Thursday, she played eight minutes.

The Tigers will now finish in the top four of the SEC’s regular-season standings for the fifth consecutive year. They won’t start their conference tournament run until the quarterfinal round tips off next Friday in Greenville, South Carolina.

Before then, though, LSU will play one more regular-season game: a road matchup with Mississippi State that will tip off at 3 p.m. Sunday.



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Tennessee Lt. Gov. Randy McNally, a longtime Oak Ridge lawmaker, is retiring

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Tennessee Lt. Gov. Randy McNally, a longtime Oak Ridge lawmaker, is retiring


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Randy McNally, the longtime Republican lawmaker from Oak Ridge and leader of the Tennessee Senate since 2017, is retiring, he announced on the Senate floor. He will not seek reelection in 2026.

His retirement marks the end of a 47-year tenure in the state legislature, where he made waves for East Tennessee and rose to the second-highest ranking role in the state as lieutenant governor.

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“This is a very difficult thing to do,” McNally told his colleagues Feb. 26. “I’ve decided not to run for reelection in November. My aim each day was to leave my state and my community a little better than I found them. Together, I believe we have done just that. Tennessee’s success is due in no small part to the people I have served alongside every day.”

McNally cited health concerns as the reason for his retirement, adding he wants to make the most of the coming years.

The Anderson County resident was the highest-ranking East Tennessean in the state government, elected by his colleagues to lead the State Senate and manage policy and budget priorities.

McNally, 82, represents the 5th Senate District, which includes all of Anderson and Loudon counties, as well as a sliver of Knox County stretching from downtown up to Sharp’s Ridge north to Powell and in the county’s west side through Karns and Hardin Valley.

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“My public service has been a team effort every step of the way,” McNally said on social media. “I offer my deepest thanks to the constituents I have served and to the members and staff with whom I have collaborated.”

That means the Aug. 6 primary election for his seat is wide open. The general election is Nov. 3.

McNally had taken initial steps to run for reelection by pulling a nominating petition. He is the only Republican in the district to have done so.

There’s no clear successor for lieutenant governor. Top contenders include Senate Majority Leader Jack Johnson, R-Franklin, and Commerce Committee Chairman Paul Bailey, R-Sparta. The Senate Republican Caucus will hold elections to select a successor. 

Well-wishes for McNally have begun to flow.

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“(McNally) has been a trusted friend and a steady conservative leader for Tennessee,” U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty said on social media. “From his time in the House of Representatives to his service as lieutenant governor, Speaker McNally has never wavered in his commitment to the betterment of our state. Thank you for your years of service and wishing you well in your next chapter.”

Randy McNally’s long history in the Tennessee legislature

McNally was elected to the state House of Representatives in 1979 and served there for eight years before moving on to the state Senate. He became Tennessee’s lieutenant governor in 2017.

McNally made a name for himself in the late 1980s through his participation in Operation Rocky Top. He worked undercover with the FBI, Tennessee Bureau of Investigation and the Internal Revenue Service to expose illegal activities among state officials.

During his time in office, McNally at times went against members of his party by showing reluctance to support bills he feared would cause unnecessary conflict, particularly those that critics said targeted the LGBTQ community.

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In 2023, McNally was the was criticized for comments he left on sexual Instagram photos posted by a young man who is gay. McNally stood by his comments, saying he tries to support all constituents.

USA TODAY-Network Tennessee contributed to this report.

Allie Feinberg is the politics reporter for Knox News. Email: allie.feinberg@knoxnews.com; Reddit: u/KnoxNewsAllie



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