World
US 'sleepwalking' into WWIII, experts warn nation is underprepared: 'We do not have our Churchill'
The U.S. is “sleepwalking” into a global war against its top adversaries united under an axis of “malign partnerships,” and experts are sounding the alarm that neither the U.S. military nor the public are prepared for World War III.
In late July, a body of non-governmental national security experts, first tasked by Congress in 2022 under the Commission on the National Defense Strategy, released an evaluation of the U.S.’ overall security strategy put forward by the Biden administration two years ago.
The commission found that after decades of post-Cold War policies that cut defense spending and reduced investments in the security sector, Washington, D.C., is “not prepared” to counter Beijing in open conflict, let alone a multi-front war against China, Iran, North Korea and Russia.
Chinese and Russian warships take part in joint naval drills in the East China Sea, on Dec. 27, 2022. (Xu Wei/Xinhua via AP, File)
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The commission, which included four Republicans and four Democrats who served under the Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama administrations, looked to make clear the lack of preparedness was not the fault of a single administration, but rather the failure of a generation of leaders to identify and counter the growing danger posed by authoritarian nations, as well as to adequately explain the threat to the American public.
The experts explained the U.S. and its allies are facing a threat not seen from global powers since WWII, as Europe is witnessing the largest land war on the continent since 1945 – a war in which Russia is receiving aid from China, Iran and North Korea.
The threat of a major war between nation states, not just rogue militants or terrorist groups, looms in the Middle East, and the potential for open conflict in the Indo-Pacific also remains a serious concern.
“There’s been a generalized failure across our political class in educating the American public of the severity of these threats and the danger that they represent,” Amb. Eric Edelman, who served as vice-chair for the 2024 commission as well as co-chair or vice chair for prior commission reports, said during a briefing to reporters hosted by JINSA this week.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin look toward each other as they shake hands prior to their talks in Beijing on Thursday, May 16, 2024. (Sergei Bobylev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)
“Historically, I’m sad to say, that when we’re faced with these kinds of challenges, we have typically responded after a catastrophe,” he added, referencing events like Pearl Harbor and 9/11. “Perhaps we can draw from some different lessons in history.”
The experts pointed to the decrease in defense spending – which has been in a downturn since 1952 when the U.S. allocated nearly 17% of its GDP for defense compared to the 3% allocated today – and warned this investment in security is not enough to adequately counter adversaries like China.
After reviewing unclassified war games, the commission found that even with Washington’s efforts to ramp up weapons stockpiles following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. would likely still exhaust its munitions inventories within three to four weeks if it were to engage in open conflict with Beijing.
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U.S. Army soldiers, from the 3rd Battalion, 321st Field Artillery Regiment of the 18th Field Artillery Brigade out of Fort Bragg North Carolina, conduct live fire testing of early versions of the Army Tactical Missile System at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, on Dec. 14, 2021. (John Hamilton/U.S. Army via AP, File)
Some munitions like anti-ship missiles are estimated to last only a few days, and once expended, it will take years to replace the munitions.
Edelman pointed out that this is not a justification for ceasing military aid to Ukraine and highlighted that a direct war against an adversary like China or Russia would be substantially more expensive, let alone a global conflict not seen since the 20th century.
Battalion 120 territorial defense takes part in training exercises near the Belarus border in Chernobyl, Ukraine, on March 16, 2024 as the war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for the last two years. (Photo by Gian Marco Benedetto/Anadolu via Getty Images)
“Preparing ourselves for defense is essentially an effort to deter conflict,” Edelman said. “Whatever the cost of defense is going to be, it’s going to be paltry in comparison to what the cost of a war would be.”
Near the end of World War II, the U.S. allocated more than 40% of its GDP for its defense budget in 1943 and 1944, and the commission warned that modern wars, as seen in Afghanistan, Iraq and now Ukraine, are lengthy engagements.
“The United States must therefore ready its forces and its industrial base for the potential of protracted conflict,” the commission’s report said.
However, the experts also warned that preparing the U.S. for a global power struggle cannot be remedied by just throwing money into the defense budget, there also needs to be a “shift in culture.”
Mara Rudman, commissioner and former deputy assistant to the president for National Security Affairs during the Clinton and Obama administrations, pointed to steps China has been taking over the last several decades that have given it an edge over the U.S., including in its technology sectors and relationship building in Latin America, Africa and recently, the Middle East.
A view shows facilities under construction, which are owned by TALCO Gold Chinese-Tajik antimony and gold mining joint venture, at the Konchoch deposit in western Tajikistan Nov. 3, 2021. TALCO Gold, jointly owned by Tajikistan’s state metals firm TALCO and China’s Tibet Huayu Mining Co, plans to begin commercial production of antimony, a metal used in batteries and fire retardants, from the Konchoch deposits by October 2022. (REUTERS/Nazarali Pirnazarov)
“They spent the last 20 years building the Belt and Road Initiative, making sure that they control processing and mining for most of the critical minerals that we need for a range of different weapon systems we have, but also for our phones and for the kinds of cars we need to build, and for the batteries that we need to have across the board,” she told reporters this week. “That’s something we need to overcome.”
There has been an increasing push in Republican circles in the U.S. to move away from international involvement, contributing to a rise in isolationism that is similar to U.S. sentiments ahead of World War II, and experts are sounding the alarm that this needs to change if Americans do not want to find themselves embroiled in another global war.
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“It’s going to require leadership, and it’s going to require educating the American public,” Edelman, who served under the Bush administration, said.
The experts on the bipartisan commission were in agreement that the American people not only need to be better educated by their leadership but trusted that they can decide what is best for their nation when properly informed.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, right, meets with a delegation led by Secretary of the Security Council of Russia Sergei Shoigu on Sept. 14, 2024, just days before the Russian official traveled to Iran. (KCNA via REUTERS )
Both the Biden-Harris administration and the Trump campaign were briefed by experts on the results of the commission.
While the White House and Harris campaign have not publicly commented on the findings, the former president’s response to the report seemed to run counter to what the commission urged, as former President Donald Trump called it “stupid” during a rally in late August – prompting the experts to question whether Trump had been properly briefed by his campaign.
“I really think it’s impossible to read the report that they’ve delivered and not believe that we are as a nation…sleepwalking into a great and potentially historic catastrophe,” host of the event and JINSA’s Charles & Randi Wax senior fellow, John Hannah, said. “We are not on the brink of a national crisis – in many ways, we’re already deep into a crisis.
“And we do not have our Churchill at the moment,” Hannah, who also served during the Bush administration, added. “The commission on the National Defense Strategy has fulfilled its mission. Now we need everybody else to play their part around the country and in the halls of power in Washington.”
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Senior Iranian clerics would have been left “exposed” after an Israeli airstrike hit a meeting place where they were supposed to be convening Tuesday — days after a strike leveled the Tehran compound of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a defense analyst has claimed.
The clerics, members of the Assembly of Experts, had reportedly planned to meet at the location in Qom to deliberate succession plans for Khamenei, who was killed in the strikes, according to The Times of Israel.
“This second strike would be another embarrassment to what has been left of the regime,” Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, told Fox News Digital.
“It indicates intelligence dominance and superiority because any movement is detected, meaning they would feel exposed,” Michael added.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike Saturday. (Getty Images)
“As of now, the leadership would feel insecure and hunted, with all of their plans collapsing one after another.”
“They would feel totally isolated and understand that the biggest risk might come from home — from a potential uprising next,” he added.
Israel Defense Forces spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin confirmed that the Israeli Air Force struck the building where senior clerics had planned to assemble, The Times of Israel reported.
KHAMENEI’S DEATH OPENS UNCERTAIN CHAPTER FOR IRAN’S ENTRENCHED THEOCRACY
A general view of Tehran with smoke visible in the distance after explosions were reported in the city, Monday, in Iran. (Contributor/Getty Images)
It remains unclear how many of the 88 members were present at the time of the strike, according to an Israeli defense source cited by the outlet. The second strike on Iran’s leadership comes amid a broader military campaign.
As previously reported by Fox News Digital, U.S. forces have struck more than 1,700 targets across Iran in the first 72 hours of Operation Epic Fury, according to a U.S. Central Command fact sheet.
The campaign is aimed at dismantling Iran’s security apparatus and neutralizing what officials describe as imminent threats.
According to U.S. Central Command, targets have included command-and-control centers, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Joint Headquarters, the IRGC Aerospace Forces headquarters, integrated air defense systems and ballistic missile sites.
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The USS Thomas Hudner fires a Tomahawk land attack missile in support of Operation Epic Fury, Sunday, while at sea. (U.S. Navy/via Getty Images)
“We need strategic patience and determination, and in several weeks most of the job will be accomplished,” Michael added. “Even if the regime does not collapse, Iran will not be like we used to know.
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“I assume that the U.S. and Israel will establish a very robust monitoring mechanism that will enable them to react whenever the regime tries to reconstitute its military capacities again.”
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Hungary’s last-minute veto on the €90 billion loan to Ukraine highlights the need for the European Union to move away from unanimity, Rob Jetten, the new prime minister of the Netherlands, said on his first trip to Brussels since taking office.
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“The new Dutch goverment is in favour of less and less decision-making by unanimity on the European level,” Jetten told a group of media, including Euronews, on Tuesday.
“This is a clear example of why that is important because we cannot explain to our constituents that Europe is sometimes way too level in reacting to great issues that affect us all,” he added.
Jetten called on his Hungarian counterpart, Viktor Orbán, to abide by the delicate deal that the 27 EU leaders reached in December after fraught negotiations. The compromise saw Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic promising the necessary unanimity to amend the EU budget rules in exchange for being exempted from the joint borrowing.
Officials and diplomats in Brussels believe that by vetoing a critical piece of the loan at the last stage of the legislative process, Orbán has breached the principle of sincere cooperation that binds the bloc’s decision-making.
“If you reach political agreement on the Council level, we expect every member state to uphold that agreement. And if not, it’s a big task for the European Commission take action,” Jetten said.
In the new coalition programme, the Netherlands calls for the “simplification” of the Article 7 procedure that can deprive member states of voting rights when they commit grave violations of the rule of law. Hungary has been under Article 7 for years, but there has never been sufficient political momentum to move to the harder enforcement phase.
“It is absolutely necessary that we support Ukraine in the months to come to make sure they can continue their fight against Russian aggression,” Jetten went on.
“With less and less American support for the Ukrainians in terms of money and weapons, it is up to the Europeans to deliver.”
Orbán’s veto centres on the interruption of Russian oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline, which Kyiv says was attacked by Russian drones on 27 January and has remained non-operational since then.
But Orbán says Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has deliberately shut down the pipeline for “political reasons” to influence the results of the upcoming Hungarian elections. Orbán trails in opinion polls by double digits.
Caught between the two rival camps, the European Commission has asked Zelenskyy to repair Druzhba and Orbán to lift his veto. Meanwhile, Hungary and Slovakia have proposed a fact-finding mission to inspect the damaged section of the pipeline.
“We expect the European Commission to solve this issue,” Jetten said. “If it’s helpful to have any fact-finding missions on the pipeline to fix this issue, I’m open to it. But everything begins with: a political agreement at the Council level is a political agreement.”
‘Too early’ for a date on Ukraine’s accession
Among the first debates facing Jetten as premier is the future of enlargement, a topic on which the Netherlands has expressed well-known reservations in the past.
Zelenskyy is advocating for a specific date for Ukraine’s accession to be enshrined in a prospective peace deal, something that could offset the pain of territorial concessions. Last week, he openly suggested 2027 as an aspirational benchmark.
The Commission says it cannot commit to a clear-cut date but is working on legal avenues to revamp the notoriously complex process and ensure the Ukrainian people have greater certainty in their path to membership.
Asked about the potential reform, Jetten said enlargement should be reconsidered from a “geopolitical perspective” but urged the bloc to be “careful” with next steps, warning that the essence of the European project risks being undermined.
“We are very open-minded to look into broader support for these (candidate) countries, but moving too fast is not the way to move forward,” the premier said.
“I think, at the moment, it’s not possible to set a date for enlargement with Ukraine, but it is possible to talk with them, and I will do that with President Zelenskyy, (about) how Europeans can support Ukraine in the important reforms that they have undertaken. But at this moment, it is too early to set the date.”
Jetten also touched upon the US-Iranian strikes on Iran, which have pushed the Middle East into uncharted territory. Wholesale gas prices have soared in reaction to the war, prompting fears that Europe might soon face a prohibitive bill to refill its underground reserves, which are running low after the heating season.
“Obviously, the Iran war can have a big impact on strategic reserves, not only in Europe but also in Asia. So we have to prepare ourselves for any case that this war will continue for many more weeks and impact the strategic reserves in the Netherlands and abroad,” he said, noting extra measures would be taken “if necessary”.
“I think the broader concern is what this war and everything that’s going on in the Strait of Hormuz is going to affect in terms of pricing.”
‘The Netherlands is back’
Jetten’s D66 party has formed a minority goverment with the liberal VVD and the conservative CDA, all of which support European integration. His tenure puts an end to the fractious four-party coalition headed by the right-wing, Eurosceptic Party for Freedom (VVD) of Geert Wilders, which was marked by constant disagreements.
Among the priorities, his executive has pledged to ramp up defence spending, simplify regulation, promote new technologies and expand renewable energy.
“As a founding (member) and the fifth (largest) economy within the EU, the Netherlands is back at the table to work closely together with everyone here in Brussels and our allies within the EU,” Jetten said.
“We see a lot of opportunities to strengthen the European economy and competitiveness, and also to make sure that we do our job with a lot of tax-based money to invest in the European defence and the European defence industry.”
Jetten and the other 26 leaders are heading for a no-holds-barred fight on the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), the bloc’s seven-year budget. Brussels has proposed a €2-trillion template that some capitals consider politically unpalatable.
Where to cut spending will be a major fracture line. Germany, the Nordics and the Baltics want a greater focus on strategic priorities, while Spain, Italy and Eastern Europe want to preserve the prominence of agriculture and cohesion funds.
The Dutch premier made it clear that the next budget should focus on the big transitions shaping the continent’s future: defence, technology and climate.
“A modern MFF doesn’t mean an exploded MFF in terms of numbers,” he said.
“The Netherlands will look into the numbers very closely, and we will have a lot of debate on this topic in the months to come.”
President Trump is meeting Germany’s leader at the White House after sidelining his European allies in the decision to attack Iran. Oil and gas prices surged and stock markets fell, after U.S. and Israeli officials signaled that strikes on Iran would intensify.
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