Kentucky
Kentucky’s offense hasn’t scored a touchdown in eight quarters. Here are the problems
Kentucky football’s Mark Stoops chats with media after Georgia loss
Kentucky’s Mark Stoops talks after losing to No. 1 Georgia football by one point Saturday night in Lexington.
LEXINGTON — Two more points. That’s all Kentucky football needed last week to topple top-ranked Georgia and send shockwaves reverberating through the college football world. Instead, despite not trailing until 12:20 remained, UK couldn’t fend off a resilient UGA squad, which rallied for a 13-12 victory at Kroger Field.
UK’s defense more than did its part. The Wildcats put the reins on the Bulldogs’ offense, forcing star quarterback Carson Beck into the worst completion percentage (62.5; 15 for 24) in his 17 games as a starter. UGA’s 262 yards were its fewest in a game in nearly five years — and the fewest it had tallied against Kentucky since 1996, when it finished with just 212. And the 13 points the Bulldogs scored were the fewest permitted by the Wildcats to a No. 1-ranked team since LSU failed to break into double digits in a 9-0 victory in 1959.
No wonder UK’s offense took last week’s loss to heart.
“It’s obviously extremely hard,” said Bush Hamdan, in his first season as Kentucky’s offensive coordinator. “When you look at their situations, again, we’ve got to analyze it. In this league, (you’ve) got to take care of the ball, got to score touchdowns in the red zone, got to execute on third downs.
“So we know what needs to get done.”
The past two games, however, the Wildcats haven’t done it.
Since the opener against Southern Miss was called in the third quarter because of lightning, with Kentucky up 31-0, the Wildcats haven’t reached the end zone again.
Eight consecutive touchdown-less quarters, which started with a shocking 31-6 home loss to South Carolina on Sept. 7 and continued with the one-point setback to Georgia last week.
So, what’s ailing the UK offense?
And how can it start hitting paydirt again once it’s within striking distance of the goal line?
We’ll look at the issues — and point out possible solutions, with help from coaches and players — as UK gears up for its fourth game of the season, set for 12:45 p.m. Saturday in Lexington against nonconference foe Ohio.
Given that Kentucky was robbed of more than a quarter of game time when the opener was called in the third period, it should come as no surprise the offense ranks near the bottom nationally in points and yards per game. The Wildcats average 16.3 points per game, which is 121st (of 133 FBS teams counted in the NCAA’s official statistics) in the country and last in the 16-team SEC. UK also ranks last in the league in total offense, averaging 261.3 yards per outing, which is 129th nationally. Kentucky has four touchdowns this season, all in the season-opening rout.
Those four TDs are tied with hapless, 0-3 Florida State for the fewest among Power Four conference clubs through three games. (UCLA has only two touchdowns, but it has played just two games so far in its maiden campaign as a member of the Big Ten.)
Even removing the traditional measures of raw points and yards does UK no favors.
Per TeamRankings.com, the Wildcats are averaging 4.2 yards per play. That puts them in a five-way tie for 115th nationally, alongside Colorado State, Hawaii, N.C. State and Temple. The only two power conference clubs accumulating fewer yards per snap are Stanford (3.7) and Purdue (3.1).
UK’s struggles earning much positive momentum per play extend to gaining yards in bunches.
CFBStats.com is a database that tracks every play a team is involved in during a season. One subset of numbers the site catalogs is “long plays” — which it defines as any play that gains 10 or more yards. It also breaks this down into separate categories of “long rushing plays” and “long passing plays.”
The Wildcats have succeeded in only one area: rushing plays of 10-plus yards. They have 19 through three games, which is tied for 27th nationally. In every other statistical big-play department, Kentucky is among the worst in the FBS.
Here’s the full breakdown:
Long scrimmage plays
Long rushing plays
- 10-plus: 19 (T-27 nationally)
- 20-plus: 2 (T-93);
- 30-plus: 0 (T-110); Kentucky is the only SEC team without a rush of at least 30 yards in 2024
Long passing plays
- 10-plus: 14 (124th nationally); Kentucky’s 14 pass plays of 10 or more yards are the fewest of any power conference team; the next-closest team is UCLA with 15. But the Bruins have played only two games this season.
- 20-plus: 5 (T-111)
- 30-plus: 3 (T-81)
- 40-plus: 1 (T-84)
An offense that has to fight and claw for nearly every yard and point can ill afford to have obstacles upfront. Yet the offensive line is another area of the unit that has had a rough season to this point. The Wildcats’ starting five is giving up 2.67 sacks per game, which is 103rd nationally and 13th among SEC teams. UK is even worse among league clubs in tackles for loss allowed — 6.00 per game, which is ahead of only South Carolina, which has permitted a staggering 10.67 TFLs per contest.
Kentucky’s difficulty protecting starting quarterback Brock Vandagriff has contributed to a lack of pop in the passing game.
In other words, UK’s passing attack hasn’t gotten off the ground this season.
The Wildcats are outside the top 100 nationally in four passing categories: passing offense (109 yards per game; 130th), yards per completion (10.22; 107th), passing efficiency (100.58; 128th) and completion percentage (.508; 127th). Kentucky is last in the conference in passing offense, passing efficiency and completion percentage while slotting in 14th in yards per completion.
For the season, Vandagriff has thrown for 313 yards and three touchdowns — against two interceptions, one of which was a pick six by South Carolina — on 29-for-55 passing (52.8%).
The Wildcats’ receivers have seen their numbers suffer, too.
Dane Key is the only pass catcher with more than 100 receiving yards through three games; he has 119 on a team-best eight receptions. Fellow junior receiver Barion Brown paces the squad in receiving touchdowns (two). And transfer Ja’Mori Maclin had a 46-yard reception in the opener — Kentucky’s longest play from scrimmage this season.
Two sequences during last week’s game had UK fans scratching their heads.
The first came just before halftime.
After running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye picked up 8 yards on third and 1, Kentucky had first and 10 at Georgia’s 14-yard line with nine seconds remaining before intermission. Instead of taking one — if not possibly two — shots at the end zone, UK coach Mark Stoops elected to let the clock run to five seconds before calling timeout. Alex Raynor promptly walked on the field and knocked in a 32-yard field goal to give the hosts a 6-3 lead at the break.
Stoops defended the decision after the game.
“I wanted points,” he said. “And we did take some chances. We just didn’t (capitalize). I mean, we couldn’t. That was going to be hard sledding (against UGA’s defense). We would take complete momentum away from us if we get a strip sack or a fumble or don’t go in with the lead. Thought our offense did a hell of a job of possessing it and driving and giving us a chance.
“It’s not like we were just giving up on that. That’s some hard sledding, man.”
Hamdan also agreed with the call, given the circumstances.
“That first half, the way our defense was playing, I think all those decisions are the right decisions, they really are,” he said. “I think the other part of that, too, is based off the coverage you might get in those situations: ball (is) on the 15-yard line with only a play or two, it’s hard to not go and take those points in a game like this against the No. 1 team in the country. So I think we did what we had to do in certain situations to take those points. Obviously, we’ve got to turn three (points) into seven here pretty quickly.”
The second call Stoops made that frustrated some segments of the fan base was not rolling the dice on fourth and 8 late in the final period, with Georgia leading 13-12. The Wildcats accepted a delay-of-game penalty to give punter Wilson Berry more room on fourth and 13. The Bulldogs took over at their 15 with 2:58 to play. They bled 2:49 off the clock. By the time UK regained possession, it had just nine seconds — and no timeouts — with which to work. Georgia sealed the victory three plays later.
Stoops never wavered in the aftermath.
“I know people are gonna question the fourth down. I don’t, I don’t,’ he said. “You know I’ve been honest with you for 12 years. If I say I made a mistake … I’ll tell you. I don’t regret punting that ball.
“I felt like if we went for it there and don’t make it, then our offense, if we stop them, has to go the length of the field — and that was going to be tough against that defense in a predictable pass situation. It’s not our strength.”
He reiterated that take during his weekly news conference Monday.
“I don’t take offense to the criticism of not going for it or whatever,” he said. “Again, I told the coaches on the headset on first down, I had every intention of going for it. Wish we would have gained some yards and had a manageable third down, manageable fourth down, but you’ve got to realize, in that same zone, on the plus-48, we had two sack fumbles, one sack, and then the next one went back from the plus (territory).
“Think about if we get three (points) there. Think about if coach Stoops goes conservative and we just run it three plays in a row and kick the field goal there, right?”
In a sense, all of these issues are interrelated.
Listen to Hamdan.
“That explosive-play piece is going to be critical,” he said. “And, for us, there’s no secrets of what we’ve got to do: As a whole unit, it starts up front, quarterbacks giving them a chance, guys making plays for us to get that done.”
The explosive plays will lead to more yardage. More points. It begins with the offensive line (and other blockers) giving Vandagriff enough time to find Brown, Key, Maclin and the rest of the team’s pass catchers. And in a perfect world for Hamdan and his unit, gaining yards by the bushel will ensure they are in third-and-long situations less and less — heading off future touch-and-go fourth-down decisions such as last week.
“It’s a lot like NFL football,” Stoops said. “You watch NFL football, they make hay on first and second down. You give those beasts time to bear down on you in predictable (passing downs), nobody’s comfortable — especially with the situation we’re in right now.”
But it’s not as if said situation is hopeless.
For all the problems plaguing the passing game, the rushing attack has been a bright spot.
Kentucky is averaging more than 152 rushing yards per outing — a figure that undoubtedly would be higher if it had been able to pad its stats in the second half of the abbreviated Southern Miss game. Most impressively, UK ran for 170 yards against the vaunted Georgia defense. UGA’s first two opponents, Clemson and Tennessee Tech, combined for 116 rushing yards versus Kirby Smart’s club.
“This offense, it’s always going to start with being able to run the football,” Hamdan said. “At times, I think defenses have played pretty soft on the back end with us and not allowed us to stretch the field as much. … But having that run game has been impressive.”
Impressive though it may be, it means little if points aren’t put on the board, touchdowns more so than field goals. That’s why the stretch of eight quarters without a TD is so vexing for players.
“The plays are there, and you come up an inch short,” starting center Eli Cox said. “Eleven guys have to be on exactly the right spot every single play for those big plays to happen, especially against a good defense. We were just one thing short. Whatever the play was, we had opportunities and the plays were there. We’ve just got to go make them.”
For what it’s worth, Hamdan said he hasn’t noticed his group hang its heads after two straight games without crossing the goal line.
“We’ve just got to keep working,” he said. “This is not a final product in Week 2 or Week 3. It’s a constant state of improvement. That’s the message for them, for myself, for everybody. And we’ve got to keep taking the next step.”
Until that comes to pass, and the offense begins playing up to its potential in all facets, self-belief must carry the day — “knowing what we have” and “who we are,” as Maclin put it.
“That’s plain and simple. Just keeping it cool, man, keeping it just at that,” he said. “I feel like it’s all just preparation throughout the week: preparing, trusting the coaches.
“That’s where the confidence comes from.”
Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.
Kentucky
Anna Nicole Smith’s lookalike daughter turns heads in dramatic new look at Kentucky Derby as stars take over
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Dannielynn Birkhead, the 19-year-old daughter of the late Anna Nicole Smith, made a striking entrance at the 2026 Kentucky Derby, turning heads with a bold, goth-inspired look.
Joined by her proud dad, Larry Birkhead, Dannielynn wore a strapless black gown adorned with large white floral designs and a decorative black-and-white fascinator. She accessorized with bracelets and platform heels. Her father sported a crisp white suit paired with a black shirt and black shoes
ANNA NICOLE SMITH’S DAUGHTER HAS ‘FULL-CIRCLE’ MOMENT WEARING HER LATE MOM’S DRESS AT KENTUCKY DERBY
Dannielynn Birkhead and Larry Birkhead attend the 152nd Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., on May 2, 2026. (Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images for Churchill Downs)
On Friday, the pair attended the exclusive Barnstable Brown Derby Eve party on May 1, and her dramatic transformation was nothing short of stunning.
She sported a gothic dress from Punk Rave—an embroidered, strapless corset gown with a sheer draped skirt—and her platinum blonde hair, tipped with jet black.
“I wanted something edgy and cool,” Dannielynn told People of her new look.
A friend of her late mother, who is a hairstylist, helped execute the look, chopping off her hair and adding wild colors.
Dannielynn Birkhead and Larry Birkhead attend the 152nd Kentucky Derby Barnstable Brown Gala at Barnstable-Brown Mansion in Louisville, Ky., on May 1, 2026. (Stephen J. Cohen/Getty Images)
“I was kind of bracing myself at the hair salon,” Larry laughed. “But I guess she’s at the age to do what she wants.”
Though he admitted to initially worrying about her dramatic makeover, Larry quickly realized that this year’s look is all about Dannielynn finding her own identity.
ANNA NICOLE SMITH’S DAUGHTER DANNIELYNN BIRKHEAD STEPS OUT IN A BOLD RED GOWN AT KENTUCKY DERBY
Dannielynn Birkhead honored her late mother, Anna Nicole Smith, by wearing her dress at a party before the Kentucky Derby in 2025. (Getty Images)
“This is a different style for her. People expect her to wear something like her mom, but this is Dannielynn showing off her own sense of style,” he said. “She said it’s a goth-rock theme. She’s coming into her own, doing her own thing.”
For Dannielynn, this new look is more than just a fashion statement — it’s a way to honor her late mother while embracing her individuality. “This is a way to embrace myself while remembering my beautiful mom,” she shared.
The duo’s all-black looks were a departure from the bright, more traditional outfits Dannielynn has worn to previous Derby events.
Dannielynn Birkhead and Larry Birkhead attend the 148th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., on May 7, 2022. (Stephen J. Cohen/Getty Images)
PAULA DEEN REVEALS THE KENTUCKY DERBY TRADITION SHE LOVES MOST — AND IT’S NOT THE FOOD OR DRINKS
While Dannielynn may have stolen the show with her goth-inspired fashion, she wasn’t the only one turning heads at this year’s Derby. Other celebrities showed up to the popular horse race in dramatic, chic and elegant outfits.
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Camille Kostek participates in two major events at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. (Jeff Schear/Getty Images for Churchill Downs; Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images for Churchill Downs)
Camille Kostek, the Sports Illustrated swimsuit model, sported a sleek black dress with a structured silhouette and a polka-dot detail, paired with a wide-brim hat that added a touch of sophistication.
Melissa Joan Hart and Danica McKellar attend the Kentucky Derby 152 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., on May 2, 2026. (Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images)
Melissa Joan Hart and Danica McKellar stunned on the Kentucky Derby red carpet, with Hart in a deep blue velvet gown and McKellar in a sheer floral embroidered dress, both wearing eye-catching statement hats.
Nicole Scherzinger attends the Kentucky Derby 152 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., on May 2, 2026. (Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images)
Nicole Scherzinger, former Pussycat Dolls frontwoman, made a statement with a vintage-inspired look. She wore a sleeveless, mid-length white dress adorned with bold black polka dots and black bow accents at the waist.
Miss America Cassie Donegan attends the Kentucky Derby 152 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., on May 2, 2026. (Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images for Churchill Downs)
Miss America Cassie Donegan wowed with a black floral dress and a dramatic black hat adorned with a red flower, creating the perfect balance between pageant glam and Derby chic.
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Izabel Araujo, Joey Fatone, Lance Bass, and Odette Annable attend the Kentucky Derby 152 at Churchill Downs on May 2, 2026, in Louisville, Kentucky. (Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images for Churchill Downs)
Joey Fatone of NSYNC and his partner Izabel Araujo made a stylish duo, with Araujo wearing a fitted floral dress with a decorative hat and Fatone rocking a mint suit with colorful sneakers, adding a playful twist to the formal Derby look.
Lance Bass and actress Odette Annable coordinated in soft pastel tones, with Bass in a cream double-breasted suit and Annable in a silky yellow dress.
How much does a Kentucky Derby jockey make? Highest paid, average salary and more to know originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that a lot of money is annually on the line at the Kentucky Derby.
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Millions of dollars in prize money gets split among top finishes at the horse race every year — and of that winning money, it gets split between a horse’s team of the owner(s), trainers and jockeys.
A jockey at the Kentucky Derby may not receive as much money as others involved in the sport, especially the owner of a winning horse, but hundreds of thousands can still be at stake for the riders.
Here’s what to know about how much a Kentucky Derby jockey makes.
MORE:When was the last Triple Crown winner?
How much does a Kentucky Derby jockey make?
A Kentucky Derby jockey’s pay can widely vary based on the success of the horse — typically, the jockeys are hired on a race-to-race basis, not a a long-term contract like in other sports.
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Because of that, the amount a jockey makes varies greatly depending on their performance.
Kentucky Derby winner prize money
In 2026, there is a total pursue of $5 million on the line at the Kentucky Derby, which will be split to the final positions:
However, there’s many steps to be taken for a jockey to receive their cut of the horse’s total winnings.
A typical winner’s share will see around 80% go to the owner, with the trainer and jockey receiving 10% each. That would set up the 2026 Kentucky Derby winner to receive $310,000.
But of that jockey’s cut, there are further arrangements to be made. Typically, around 25% will go to the jockey’s agent and another 5% will go to the valet who helped prepare the jockey’s riding gear.
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That would leave the 2026 Kentucky Derby-winning jockey with a payout of around $217,000, which is before taxes.
The jockey’s percentage cut of the second- and third-place winning horses also typically falls down to 5%, which, in 2026, would leave the jockey payouts at around $35,000 and $17,500, again before taxes, per Twin Spires.
While jockeys are the front-facing figures in the Kentucky Derby, their winning earnings are often small in comparison to the horse owner’s.
Annual salary
Jockeys are usually paid by race, earning a set amount up-front, then receiving considerably more from a cut of a winning horse’s result. Because of that, annual salaries can widely vary.
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However, according to Fan Odds, most jockeys will receive around $100-$500 per ride minimum, with annual salaries ranging from $20,000 to $1 million based on experience and success. Entry-level jockeys can reportedly earn between $30,000-$50,000 annually; jockeys can also earn money from endorsements and bonuses. Doubled Trailers also reports an annual average U.S. salary of $49,000, but with top jockeys earning over $25 million per year in prize cuts and sponsorships.
At the 2026 Kentucky Derby, each jockey who finishes below third place will receive a minimum $500 riding fee.
MORE: Bob Baffert’s timeline of Kentucky Derby wins
Kentucky Derby jockey average salary
Jockeys typically are paid on a per-race basis; the salary for a Kentucky Derby jockey widely varies based on the horse’s result. While a winner might receive north of $200,000 in take-home pay, non-top-five finishers may only receive a few hundred dollars for their efforts.
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According to Fan Odds, the average jockey salary in the United States is around $60,000-$80,000 annually. However, entry-level jockeys can earn an estimated $30,000-$50,000 annually, while experienced jockeys can make $100,000-$200,000 per year or more, including into the millions.
MORE: Where is Churchill Downs?
Highest-paid jockeys in horse racing
Internationally, the horse racing jockey with the highest career earnings is Japan’s Yutaka Take, who has earned an estimated $971 million throughout his career, per OLBG, which includes over 4,500 wins. Other Japanese jockeys like Norihiro Yokoyama ($615 million) and Yuichi Fukunaga ($561 million) have also cleared the reported $500 million threshold.
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Among jockeys in only the United States in Canada, however, there is only one who has made over $500 million: John R. Velazquez, who has totaled $519.1 million over 38,000-plus races, per Equibase, including Kentucky Derby wins in 2011, 2017 and 2020.
Here’s a look at the top-10 highest-earning jockeys in the U.S. and Canada, according to Equibase.
|
Rank |
Jockey |
Starts |
First Place |
Total Earnings |
|
1 |
John R. Velazquez |
38,007 |
6,835 |
$519,114,137 |
|
2 |
Javier Castellano |
33,603 |
5,971 |
$417,538,527 |
|
3 |
Irad Ortiz Jr. |
21,697 |
4,433 |
$417,538,527 |
|
4 |
Mike E. Smith |
35,043 |
5,802 |
$357,657,960 |
|
5 |
Joel Rosario |
21,003 |
3,799 |
$347,116,425 |
|
6 |
Jose L. Ortiz |
18,690 |
3,545 |
$304,805,371 |
|
7 |
Pat Day |
40,299 |
8,803 |
$297,914,839 |
|
8 |
Kent J. Desormeaux |
33,070 |
6,196 |
$296,450,929 |
|
9 |
Jerry D. Bailey |
30,856 |
5,893 |
$296,113,529 |
|
10 |
Edgar S. Prado |
39,725 |
7,119 |
$272,008,849 |
MORE:Full list of Kentucky Derby winners
Forget the small talk, Churchill Downs is officially rocking as we kick off Derby weekend with the 2026 Kentucky Oaks. The Lilies for the Fillies isn’t just a tradition; it’s a high-stakes, Grade 1 showdown.
This is the premier stage for three-year-old fillies. On this Friday, May 1, the energy in Louisville is electric, and the betting windows are already seeing massive volume.
With a loaded field, strong contenders and the spotlight shining bright in Louisville, this race gives bettors one more huge chance to cash before Derby Day takes over the weekend.
2026 KENTUCKY DERBY: POST POSITION DRAW, OPENING MORNING-LINE ODDS
Let’s stop talking and get to the betting window. Here are my picks and exotics for the 2026 Kentucky Oaks.
The 2026 Kentucky Oaks post positions, scratches and morning-line odds at Churchill Downs. (Kentucky Derby via X)
2026 Kentucky Oaks Day Betting Card
- Race 8: $5 to Win on #2 French Fiction.
- Race 9: $5 to Win and Place on #8 Corporate Power ($10 total bet).
- Race 12: $5 to Win on #8 Lion Lake. $1 Exacta Box on 1,3,8 ($6 total bet).
- Race 13: $8 to Win on #9 Always a Runner. $1 Exacta Box on 1,4,9 ($6 total bet). $1 Trifecta Box on 1,4,9 ($6 total bet).
Race 8: Grade 2 Eight Belles, 4:30 p.m. ET post time
Seven-furlong dirt track for 3-year-old fillies with a $700K purse.
#2 French Fiction (6-1 on the morning-line)
I’m “buying the dip” after she finished fourth by 15 lengths in the G1 Ashland her last time out. But French Fiction is turning back after running a one-and-one-sixteenth-mile race at the Ashland.
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She went off at a shorter price in all three starts (2-0-0) and her two wins at six furlongs had 81 and 84 speed figures. That said, I like the price and French Fiction at a shorter distance.
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Race 9: Grade 2 Alysheba Belles, 5:12 p.m. ET post time
One-and-one-sixteenth-mile dirt track for four-year-olds and upward with a $750K purse.
#8 Corporate Power
Finished second his last time out in the Grade 2 New Orleans, but his 106 speed figure is the second-fastest in this race. Mounted by Jose Ortiz, “who was the hottest rider at CD [Churchill Downs] to begin this meet,” per the Daily Racing Form.
Corporate Power’s sire (Curlin) and dam (Road To Victory) both won graded stakes races on the Churchill Downs dirt. He is one of two closers in a race and could capitalize on a pace melt if the early speed horses burn out down the stretch.
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Race 12: Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes, 7:40 p.m. ET post time
One-and-one-eighth-mile turf track for 3-year-old fillies with a $600K purse.
#1 Storm’s Wake (6-1)
She beat out two rivals in this field to win the Grade 2 Appalachian her last time out. Her 89 speed figure is the fastest in this race and she has won her only race at the Churchill Downs turn. Storm’s Wake is a horse for the course, winning her only race at Churchill last summer.
Horses run on the turf during race seven on ‘Thurby’ day at Churchill Downs in Louisville during 2026 Kentucky Derby week. (Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
#8 Lion Lake (8-1)
She’s run faster in all six races (2-1-2). Lion Lake’s 88 speed figure in a blanket-finish third in the Grade 2 Appalachian her last time out is tied for the second-fastest figure in this race. Before that, she won the Grade 3 Here Comes The Bride at Gulfstream in February.
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Race 13: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, 8:40 p.m. ET post time
One-and-one-eighth-mile dirt track for 3-year-old fillies with a $1.5 million purse.
#1 Explora (6-1)
This filly has finished first or second in her seven career starts. There is a lot of speed in this race, but Explora has the fastest “early speed”. Drawing the rail in the Oaks could help control the pace and get out to an early lead.
Explora’s jockey, Flavien Prat, is one of the best in the world, and she posted a career-best 88 speed figure in her win at the Grade 3 Honeybee her last time out. I like the #9 to eventually run her down, but I’m using Explora in my exotics and multi-race wagers.
#4 Counting Stars (8-1)
She might not be a popular bet because her rivals have better connections and jockeys. But Counting Stars has “tactical speed,” meaning there isn’t much of a difference between her early and late speeds, so she could win the Oaks regardless of the pace (theoretically).
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Her 92 speed figure in a win at the Grade 2 Fantasy her last time out is the fastest speed in this field. Counting Stars has gone off as the favorite in three of her last four starts and outran her 11-1 odds in a second in the Grade 3 Honeybee. She won in her only visit to Churchill Downs.
#9 Always a Runner (10-1)
Experience, or lack thereof, is Always a Runner’s biggest question mark. Otherwise, she has the talent to win the Oaks. She ran an 89 speed figure in a win at the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct her last time out, which is the fourth-fastest race from any horse in this field.
Always A Runner preps for the 2026 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs in Louisville. She is trained by Chad Brown and jockey Dylan Davis is slated to ride her. (Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Plus, we know she can handle the distance, as the Gazelle was also one-and-one-eighth miles. Lastly, Always a Runner has a better closing kick than any of her rivals in the Oaks, and if there is a “pace melt,” I like her chances of running past the field on the home stretch.
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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.
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