Finance
I’m a Finance Expert: Here’s How Long It Will Take To Recover From Inflation If Trump Wins
Steep inflation has haunted Americans as our number one bogeyman over the last two and a half years.
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“We’ve experienced high inflation over the last three years because of how much money we flooded into our financial system as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” explains CFP and MBA Scott Sturgeon of Oread Wealth. “These include stimulus checks, PPP loans, quantitative easing and other pandemic-era policies that lingered too long. The more dollars there are pursuing the same goods and services, the more those goods and services will increase in price as a response.”
Trump’s proposed policies prove a mixed bag for their impact on inflation. Some would likely reduce it, while others would exacerbate it. Consider the push and pull of each as you prognosticate future inflation rates.
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Deflationary Policies Under Trump
Sara Routhier, finance expert with FreeAdvice.com, sees a slow road ahead. “If Trump wins, it will most likely take two to three years to recover from the inflation we have seen over the last few years. If Harris wins the election, there is a good chance that inflation will continue to rise.”
Learn More: Trump Wants To Eliminate Income Taxes: How Would That Impact You If You Are Retired?
So which of Trump’s policies will help reduce inflation?
Slower Immigration
“Trump’s tighter immigration policies should help reduce inflation,” observes Routhier. “The government would spend less on undocumented immigrants’ housing, medical expenses, and other assimilation costs.”
Reduced government spending isn’t the only reason why slower immigration would also slow inflation. Immigration fuels population growth, which in turn fuels economic growth through higher demand for goods and services. Inflation goes hand in hand with hot economic growth, so reducing population growth and consumer demand should tamp down on inflation.
Greater Domestic Energy Production
At rally after rally, Trump has promised to “drill baby drill” to increase domestic oil and gas production. Greater energy supply drives down energy prices, helping to reduce inflation.
Melanie Musson, a finance expert with Clearsurance.com, points to lower US energy prices and fewer foreign imports. “If Trump is elected again, you can expect a shift away from foreign dependence, similar to his first presidency.”
Reduced Federal Spending (Maybe)
More government spending means more money flooding into the economy. Read: inflation.
Historically, Republican candidates have proposed slimmer government spending, which can help cut inflation. That said, Donald Trump is by no means a classical conservative.
Trump’s first administration continued to spend more each year, outspending the Obama Administration in every year per The American Presidency Project.
You could make a case that a second Trump Administration would increase federal spending at a slower pace than a Harris Administration. But that argument rests on the “lesser of two evils” for exacerbating inflation, as opposed to a policy solution.
Trump Policies that Would Increase Inflation
Many of Trump’s policy proposals would increase inflation rather than continue taming it.
Pressuring Lower Interest Rates
Despite appointing Jerome Powell as the chair of the Federal Reserve, Donald Trump has been his fiercest critic. He told Fox Business earlier this year that he wouldn’t reappoint Powell, and accused him of being “political.”
In fact, Trump has gone so far as claiming the power to fire a sitting Fed chair, as reported by The Hill. He has repeatedly campaigned this year on lowering interest rates — which of course fuels inflation.
“Higher interest rates have helped cool inflation by cooling down an overheated economy,” explains Sturgeon. And racing to slash interest rates too quickly can drive inflation rates right back up again.
Tariffs
It doesn’t take an economist to see that adding new taxes on imports makes those imported goods more expensive. Retailers don’t just eat those higher costs — they pass them on to consumers. “Broad tariffs typically raise prices for everyday goods,” explains Paul Tyler from annuity provider Zinnia.
Trump initially called for a 10% blanket tariff on all imports, which he has more recently raised to 20% as reported by CNBC. On Chinese imports, that rate would jump to 60%.
That spells inflation on imports, for everyday consumers.
Tax Cuts
Tax cuts stimulate the economy by leaving consumers and companies more money to spend, grow, and hire.
To juice the economy, Trump has proposed extending the provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 indefinitely, and reducing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% (see this analysis by the Tax Foundation).
Sometimes the economy does need stimulating. But when the economy is overstimulated — like it’s been for the last three years — that stimulus leads to inflation.
Reduced Federal Regulation
Government regulation works like a throttle on the economy. When the government tightens regulation, it squeezes the flow of goods and services, while loosening regulation increases the flow.
Like reducing taxes, reducing regulation stimulates the economy, which is in turn inflationary.
Dana Miranda, Certified Educator in Personal Finance and author at Healthy Rich, sees regulation as a check on retailers raising prices. “Corporate price gouging can be a major factor in inflation, and it can be addressed with regulation by federal agencies. Harris has proposed regulatory and tax increases on corporations. Trump’s policies favor corporations and likely wouldn’t wrangle inflation any better than it is now.”
Final Thoughts
Each candidates’ policies would have a mixed effect on inflation. Don’t expect either candidate to wave a magic wand and make inflation disappear.
Instead, expect a slow march back to 2% inflation — or a fast drop if the economy falls into recession.
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: I’m a Finance Expert: Here’s How Long It Will Take To Recover From Inflation If Trump Wins
Finance
Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath
Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers
Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers
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Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath
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Finance
How “impact accounting” can integrate sustainability with finance
Around three years ago, Charles Giancarlo, CEO of data platform Pure Storage, came back from Davos and asked his sustainability team to look into an idea he’d encountered at the meeting: Impact accounting, a method for integrating emissions and other externalities into company balance sheets.
The idea had been slowly picking up adherents in Europe for around a decade, but Pure Storage, which rebranded this month to Everpure, would go on to become the first U.S. company to join the Value Balancing Alliance (VBA), a group of 30 or so companies developing the approach. Trellis checked in last week with Everpure and the VBA for an update.
How does impact accounting work?
At the heart of the approach are a set of “valuation factors,” developed by third-party experts, that are used to convert activity data for emissions, water use, air pollution and other externalities into dollar figures that can be integrated into balance sheets. In the case of emissions, for example, the VBA uses $220 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent, a figure based on the estimated social impact of rising greenhouse gases levels.
At Everpure, one long-term goal is to have cost centers be aware of the dollar impact of relevant externalities. After an initial focus on identifying and collecting the most material data, the team is now rolling out a dashboard containing several years of impact accounting numbers.
“It’s catered to different personas,” explained Adrienne Uphoff, Everpure’s ESG regulations and impact accounting manager. Finance was an initial use case, with product managers also on the roadmap. “You can compare it to financial numbers to really understand the impact intensity.”
What value does the approach bring?
“The essence of impact accounting is that you’re translating all these different metrics in the sustainability space into the language the decision makers understand,” said Christian Heller, the VBA’s CEO. “Everyone understands what you’re talking about, and you get a sense of the magnitude of your impact and the risks and opportunities.”
This has allowed Everpure to calculate what Uphoff called the “environmental costs of goods sold” and to estimate the impact of circular strategies, such as refurbishing hardware. The analysis reveals “impact savings across the full value chain across five different environmental topics all in a single dollar unit,” she said.
Analyses like that can then be shared with customers and used to distinguish Everpure from competitors. “The long-term winners in this space are going to be those that can perform against sustainability goals,” said Kathy Mulvany, Everpure’s global head of sustainability. “Impact accounting gives us a way to bring comparability, so companies can understand how they’re truly stacking up.”
What does it take to implement impact accounting?
A great deal of technical work goes into creating valuation factors, but the system is designed so that outside experts create the numbers and hand them to sustainability professionals for use. Still, not every company will have the in-house environmental data that is also needed. Many companies have been collecting emissions data for five years or more, for example, but detailed datasets for water use are less common.
Internal teams also need to be familiar with the concepts. “One of the key learnings from our impact accounting implementation is that the socialization curve is longer than you expect,” said Uphoff. “Attaching monetary values on externalities introduces new metrics and mental models, and that can naturally make people a little nervous at first. It takes time and dialogue for teams to build confidence in how to interpret this new lens on performance.”
What’s next?
In the early days of impact accounting, companies and consultancies worked independently on different methodologies. Now that work is coalescing, said Heller. The International Standards Organization will start work on a standard this summer, he added, and the VBA is having conversations with the IFRS Foundation, which creates international financial reporting standards.
The approach may also be integrated into mandatory disclosure standards. Heller noted that the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive mentions the potential benefits of companies putting a dollar figure on some environmental impacts. “It’s the next evolutionary step of any kind of sustainability disclosure regulations,” he said.
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Finance
2 Aspira charter high schools to close by April due to financial issues
Chicago Public Schools is shutting down two Aspira charter high schools by the middle of the year, following financial issues over the past year.
School leaders are calling the move “unprecedented.”
Students at the Aspira Business and Finance High School at 2989 N. Milwaukee Ave. in Avondale held a walkout right outside of Aspira after the CEO said they only have enough money to stay open for the next four to five weeks.
Students wanted their questions answered as to why they’re being transferred to other schools.
Angelina Mota is a senior at the high school and said she is concerned about her future.
“It’s very difficult, especially for us, hearing that credits might not go all the way with us. That our graduation might just be taken back. It’s very disappointing,” she said.
This is the first time a CPS school will close before the end of the school year. Both Aspira and CPS said the charter network won’t have the funds to stay open past April.
“The burden on our seniors has got to be… they don’t give a damn about the kids. The seniors,” Aspira of Illinois CEO Edgar Lopez said while fighting back his emotions.
The school is facing a $2.9 million deficit, impacting 540 students and dozens of staff.
CPS said they have already given more than $2.5 million to the charter school to help sustain operations. They said under Illinois law, it reached the legal limit of funding it can provide.
This has been a year-long effort in compliance with state charter school law.
In a statement, CPS said, “Aspira has not submitted required documentation, including evidence of funding to support operations through this school year.”
The documents CPS said are overdue include the school’s fiscal year 25 financial audit, general ledger, and payroll.
“We’re not hiding nothing. The financial documents that they were asking for, Jose told them, we’ll have them to you by Friday. Then they send a letter by Thursday. They didn’t even give us a chance,” Lopez said.
CPS said they’re initiating this due to the lack of financial transparency and solvency.
“We know we don’t want to go anywhere else because we’re used to the routine we have here,” said student Arichely Molina.
“Please let us (stay) open. at least until we graduate,” Mota said.
CPS said their main goal is to ensure the kids have a safety net as they transition to another school.
The second school is located at 3986 W. Barry Ave., also in the Avondale neighborhood.
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