World

US election: Why is Kamala Harris losing Indian American voters?

Published

2 months ago

November 1, 2024

US election: Why is Kamala Harris losing Indian American voters?

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is projected to lose a segment of her party’s traditional share of Indian American voters – who have historically sided with the Democrats – in the 2024 United States election, a new survey of the community’s political attitudes has found.

Even though Harris could become the first ever Indian American president of the US, a survey by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has found that she is likely to secure fewer votes from the community than incumbent President Joe Biden did in 2020.

An estimated 61 percent of respondents from the community will vote for Harris, the survey found, down by nearly 4 percent as compared to the last presidential election in 2020.

The 5.2 million-strong Indian American community is the second-largest immigrant bloc in the US after Mexican Americans, with an estimated 2.6 million voters eligible for casting a ballot for the November 5 election.

There has been a decline in the community’s attachment to Harris’s party as well, with 47 percent of respondents identifying as Democrats, down from 56 percent in 2020. Meanwhile, the researchers noted “a modest shift in the community’s preferences”, with a slight uptick in willingness to vote for the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump.

Small but influential

Both parties have ramped up their outreach to the immigrant group in the last few years as the community continues to grow its political clout and influence. While Harris is today the face of the party, several Indian Americans have gained prominence on the Republican side too – from former presidential contender and ex-ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley to entrepreneur-turned-Trump surrogate Vivek Ramaswamy, and vice-presidential nominee JD Vance’s wife, Usha Vance.

Four days before November 5, pollsters say the election is too close to call, with Harris’s national edge over Trump shrinking, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker. And in all seven battleground states – Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada – the two candidates are separated by less than 2 percentage points, within the margin of error for polls.

The result of the presidential race may come down to a few thousand votes in these crucial swing states, where smaller communities – like Indian Americans – could play a pivotal role, political analysts and observers told Al Jazeera.

“Even though the Indian American community is not very big in absolute numbers, they can help swing the decision in one direction or another,” said Milan Vaishnav, the director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and co-author of the paper. “There are many states where the community’s population is larger than the margin of victory in the 2020 presidential election.”

Indian Americans are the largest Asian American community in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan. There are more than 150,000 Indian Americans in both Pennsylvania and Georgia – a number much higher than the margin by which Biden won these two states, with 35 Electoral College votes between them – in 2020.

But why is the community’s vote drifting away from Democrats?

Deepening gender divisions

For Aishwarya Sethi, a 39-year-old Indian American voter based in California, Harris’s pitch to reclaim abortion rights in the country strikes a chord, she told Al Jazeera. But her husband, who works at a tech company in the state, she said, is increasingly tilting towards the Republican base. “I cannot understand why his politics is shifting but it is happening gradually,” she said. “I’ll still try to convince him to vote for greater sexual autonomy.”

This gender-based partisan divide is reflected in several research papers and leading exit polls across the US. Within the Indian American community, as per the latest survey, 67 percent of women intend to vote for Harris while 53 percent of men, a smaller share, plan to vote for the vice president.

“Reproductive freedom is a paramount concern for women across America, including South Asian women and the [female] support for Harris is not surprising given her position on abortion rights,” said Arjun Sethi, an Indian American lawyer based in Washington, DC.

“Whereas a growing number of South Asian men favour strong border policies and a more friendly taxation regime, [therefore] aligning with Trump.”

A closer look at the data reveals that the gender gap is starkest with younger voters.

A majority of men and women above the age of 40 say they plan to pick Harris. Among voters below the age of 40, however, the male vote is split almost equally between Harris and Trump, while women overwhelmingly support Harris.

“There is also a growing scepticism among some Indian American men voting for a female president,” added Vaishnav, co-author of the paper. The deepening gender gap in voting preference among the immigrant community is “a new cleavage that didn’t exist before, however, [it] is in line with the larger national trend in the US”.

Trump’s tougher stance on “illegal and undocumented immigration and a very aggressive populist, nationalist politics” may find resonance among a segment of Indian American voters, said Sangay Mishra, an associate professor of international relations, with a specialisation in immigrants’ political incorporation, at Drew University.

“This pitch is primarily aimed at white voters but also trickles down to minorities, especially among men.”

However, at the same time, Mishra warns against reading too much into the reported shift in the survey. “This paper captures the dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party but it does not necessarily mean greater identification with the Republican Party,” he said, “because within the Indian American community, the Republicans are still associated with the Christian, or white, nationalist position”.

No takers for Indian heritage?

Harris’s mother was born in India and migrated to the US in 1958 for graduate studies at the University of California Berkeley, while her father is Black with Jamaican roots. The Democratic candidate has also identified herself as a Black woman in multiple instances.

That identification with African American roots, rather than more openly embracing her Indian background, has also pushed away a few voters in the South Asian community, said Rohit Chopra, a scholar at the Center for South Asia at Stanford University. “There is actually more enthusiasm for someone like Tulsi Gabbard or Usha Vance, than for Kamala Harris [in the Indian American community],” he said. “In the American mainstream, Harris is perceived as African American.”

This “strategic decision” by her campaign is also driven by numbers, Chopra added. “The ‘Indianness’ does not have the same trade-off value [like Black voters], it’s strategically not worth it for them.”

As per the new survey, Indian Americans (61 percent) are less inclined to vote for Harris than Black voters (77 percent), and marginally more so than Hispanic Americans (58 percent). However, Harris’s support is down among Black and Latino voters too, compared to the norm for the Democratic Party.

Within the Indian American community, Harris’s position as a more liberal leader appeals to 26 percent of voters as compared to 7 percent who say they are enthusiastic about her Indian heritage. Meanwhile, 12 percent of the respondents in the survey said that they are less enthusiastic about the Democratic ticket because “Harris identifies more with her Black roots”.

The Gaza heat

There are other worrying signs for Democrats too: The number of Indian Americans who identify themselves as Democrats has dropped to 47 percent in 2024, down by nine points from 56 percent in 2020.

Meanwhile, 21 percent identify themselves as Republicans – the same as in 2020 – while the percentage of Indian Americans who identify as independents has grown, up to 26 percent from 15 percent.

One reason for this shift, say experts, is Israel’s war on Gaza, in which more than 43,000 people have been killed, and President Joe Biden’s administration’s steadfast support for Israel.

Earlier in the year, more than 700,000 Americans voted “uncommitted” in state primaries as a message to Biden, the then-Democrat nominee, that he would lose significant support on the November 5 election day. As per recent polls, Trump is narrowly leading Harris among Arab Americans with a lead of 45 percent to 43 percent among the key demographic.

“A large number of young people, particularly young Indian Americans, are disillusioned with the stance that the Democrats have taken on Gaza,” said Mishra of Drew University. “There is a lot of conversation about uncommitted voters, or giving a protest vote, to show that people are unhappy with what’s happening in Gaza – and that is influencing at least a section of Indian Americans.”

Sethi, the Indian American lawyer based in DC, added that he is confident that “a growing number of younger South Asians are voting for a third-party candidate because they are deeply committed to ending the genocide in Gaza, and therefore refuse to vote for either Trump or Harris”.

‘Domestic issues over foreign policy’

Multiple immigration experts and political analysts have said that a slight shift among the Indian American community towards Trump is also driven by his apparent friendship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist leader.

In a message on Diwali, the Indian festival of light on Thursday, Trump tried to woo the Hindu American vote.

“I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos,” he said on X. “It would have never happened on my watch. Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America.”

“We will also protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left. We will fight for your freedom. Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi.”

However, Vaishnav, the co-author of the paper, claimed that it is a rather “common misperception that Indian Americans tend to vote in the presidential elections based on their assessment of US-India ties”.

Vaishnav added that the last two surveys, in 2020 and 2024, on the political attitude of the community reveal that “foreign policy may be important to Indian Americans, but it is not a defining election issue” because of a bipartisan consensus that the US and India should grow together.

Instead, the voters are more motivated by daily concerns like prices, jobs, healthcare, climate change and reproductive rights, Vaishnav said.

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World

Lo que nos dice la decisión de Trump de involucrarse en disputa de gastos sobre los próximos 4 años

Published

2 hours ago

December 21, 2024

Press Room

Lo que nos dice la decisión de Trump de involucrarse en disputa de gastos sobre los próximos 4 años

WASHINGTON (AP) — Tras días de amenazas y exigencias, Donald Trump tuvo por qué mostrar una vez que los legisladores aprobaron un acuerdo presupuestario en las primeras horas del sábado, evitando por poco que las dependencias estatales se vieran obligadas a cerrar antes de Navidad por falta de fondos.

El presidente electo logró que los republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes eliminaran algunos gastos, pero no logró su objetivo principal de elevar el límite de la deuda. Esto demostró que, a pesar de su decisiva victoria electoral y sus frecuentes promesas de represalias, muchos miembros de su partido aún están dispuestos a desafiarlo abiertamente.

La decisión de Trump de involucrarse en el debate presupuestario un mes antes de su toma de posesión también mostró que sigue siendo más hábil para destruir acuerdos que para hacerlos, y presagió que su segundo mandato probablemente estará marcado por las mismas luchas internas, el caos y el juego al borde del precipicio que caracterizaron su primer mandato.

“Estén atentos. Abróchense los cinturones. Prepárense”, dijo el congresista Steve Womack, republicano de Arkansas, un asignador presupuestario sénior.

Una mirada a la agenda de Trump muestra una cascada de oportunidades para enfrentamientos similares en los años venideros. El presidente electo quiere ampliar los recortes fiscales que promulgó hace siete años, reducir el tamaño del gobierno, aumentar los aranceles a las importaciones y tomar medidas enérgicas contra los inmigrantes no autorizados. Muchos de esos esfuerzos necesitarán la aprobación del Congreso.

Para muchos de los seguidores de Trump, la disrupción podría ser un objetivo en sí mismo. El 37% de los que votaron por él este año dijeron que querían “un cambio total y completo”, según AP VoteCast, una extensa encuesta de más de 120.000 votantes. Un 56% adicional dijo que querían “un cambio sustancial”.

Pero los últimos días dejaron claro la dificultad que Trump podría enfrentar para cumplir rápidamente sus objetivos, especialmente dado que los republicanos solo cuentan con mayorías escasas en la Cámara de Representantes y el Senado. Algunos legisladores ya parecen cansados de la aparente ausencia de una estrategia unificada.

El senador Kevin Cramer, republicano de Dakota del Norte, dijo que la batalla presupuestaria fue “una lección valiosa sobre cómo organizarnos”.

El fracaso de las exigencias de Trump

El problema comenzó cuando los principales legisladores publicaron una copia de la iniciativa de ley, conocida como una resolución continua, que era necesaria para asegurar el funcionamiento del gobierno federal hasta marzo. No fue el presidente electo, sino Elon Musk, el hombre más rico del mundo y confidente de Trump, quien primero comenzó a generar oposición a la ley en las redes sociales al calificarla de gasto excesivo.

Trump eventualmente se sumó a la batalla. Ordenó a los republicanos cancelar el acuerdo bipartidista que habían hecho con los demócratas y exigió que aumentaran el límite de la deuda, el tope de cuánto puede pedir prestado el gobierno, con la esperanza de evitar que ese espinoso problema surgiera cuando ya estuviera en funciones.

Aumentó la presión incluso después de haber modificado sus demandas iniciales. Primero quería eliminar el límite de la deuda por completo. Luego quería suspenderlo hasta 2027. Luego propuso una extensión hasta 2029.

Si las dependencias estatales se vieran obligadas a cerrar por falta de fondos, el presidente demócrata Joe Biden sería culpado, insistió Trump.

“Todos los republicanos, e incluso los demócratas, deberían hacer lo que es mejor para nuestro país y votar ‘A FAVOR’ de esta iniciativa de ley, ¡ESTA NOCHE!”, escribió Trump el jueves, antes de una votación sobre una versión del proyecto de ley que incluía un límite de deuda más alto.

En cambio, 38 republicanos votaron en contra. Fue un desaire sorprendente para Trump, quien a veces pareciera no tener ningún control sobre su propio partido.

“Sin esto, nunca deberíamos hacer un acuerdo”, escribió en Truth Social, su red social.

Si no conseguía lo que quería, Trump dijo que debería haber un cierre del gobierno. También dijo que sus correligionarios pagarían el precio en las elecciones primarias si se negaban a seguir adelante, y dijo que “los obstruccionistas republicanos tienen que ser eliminados”. Señaló especialmente al representante Chip Roy, de Texas, por su nombre y con insultos.

Pero al final, los legisladores dejaron fuera ese aumento del techo de la deuda, y un acuerdo final se aprobó el sábado a primera hora.

Musk y otros aliados de Trump intentaron presentarlo como una victoria porque la ley final se redujo significativamente y omitió elementos impopulares como un aumento salarial para los miembros del Congreso. Charlie Kirk, un prominente activista conservador, escribió en X que Trump ”¡ya está dirigiendo el Congreso antes de asumir el cargo!”.

El presidente de la Cámara de Representantes, Mike Johnson, republicano de Luisiana, dijo que había estado en “contacto constante” con Trump, quien, aseguró, estaba “ciertamente feliz con este resultado”.

Si Trump estuvo de acuerdo, él mismo no lo dijo.

Tras días de publicaciones frecuentes en redes sociales, Trump volvió a guardar silencio el viernes. No ofreció una reacción a la votación final ni emitió ningún comunicado. En cambio, fue a jugar golf en su resort en Florida.

Karoline Leavitt, una vocera de Trump, dijo que el presidente electo ayudó a prevenir un acuerdo original “lleno de despilfarros demócratas y aumentos salariales para los miembros del Congreso”.

“En enero, el presidente Trump y el Departamento de Eficiencia Gubernamental (DOGE, por sus siglas en inglés) continuarán esta importante misión de eliminar el despilfarro de Washington, una ley a la vez”, dijo. El DOGE es un panel asesor que será liderado por Musk y el empresario Vivek Ramaswamy.

Más enfrentamientos en el horizonte

La atmósfera circense de la lucha por el presupuesto recordó al primer mandato de Trump. En aquel entonces, un enfrentamiento presupuestario llevó a un cierre del gobierno cuando Trump exigió dinero para su muro fronterizo entre Estados Unidos y México. Después de 35 días, el cierre más largo de la historia, accedió a un acuerdo sin haber logrado los fondos que había exigido.

Fue un punto bajo político para Trump, y el 60% de los estadounidenses lo culparon por el cierre, según una encuesta realizada por The Associated Press y el NORC Center for Public Affairs Research en ese momento.

Trump no dejó de intentar doblegar a los republicanos a su voluntad en ese entonces y ciertamente no lo hará en este momento.

Trump está aumentando la presión sobre su propio partido por sus elecciones para el gabinete, empujando a senadores republicanos reacios a aceptar algunos de sus nombramientos más controvertidos, como el activista antivacunas Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a quien eligió como secretario de Salud y el presentador de Fox News Pete Hegseth como secretario de Defensa.

Pareciera que los debates sobre el presupuesto del próximo año definitivamente pondrán a prueba aún más la influencia de Trump en la Cámara de Representantes. Muchos conservadores ven el rápido crecimiento de la deuda federal como una amenaza existencial para el país que debe abordarse. Pero algunos republicanos temen una reacción negativa de los votantes si se realizan recortes drásticos a los programas federales de los que dependen los estadounidenses.

Las preocupaciones sobre el gasto deficitario podrían intensificarse si Trump impulsa los recortes fiscales costosos que prometió durante la campaña, como eliminar los impuestos sobre las propinas, la Seguridad Social y el pago de horas extras.

Trump también pretende ampliar los recortes fiscales que promulgó en 2017 y que deberán llegar a su fin el próximo año. Ha pedido una reducción adicional de la tasa de impuestos corporativos de Estados Unidos del 21% al 15%, pero sólo para las empresas que producen en Estados Unidos.

Trump ha dicho que pagará las caídas en los ingresos con aranceles agresivos nuevos, los cuales, advierten los economistas, resultarán en precios más altos para los consumidores.

El representante Dan Crenshaw, republicano de Texas, dijo que la reducción del gasto público probablemente seguirá siendo un abismo entre Trump y los republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes.

“Eso nunca ha sido realmente una promesa de campaña de Trump, pero es una gran prioridad para los republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes”, dijo.

No había indicios de que la animosidad estuviera disminuyendo el sábado. Algunos republicanos culparon al liderazgo de la Cámara de Representantes por no asegurar la “bendición” de Trump en el acuerdo original. Los demócratas presentaron a Trump como segundo violín de Musk.

Mientras Trump se mantenía callado, Biden anunció que había promulgado la ley presupuestaria.

“Este acuerdo representa un compromiso, lo que significa que ninguna de las partes obtuvo todo lo que quería”, dijo. “Pero rechaza el camino acelerado hacia un recorte de impuestos para multimillonarios que buscaban los republicanos, y asegura que el gobierno pueda continuar operando a plena capacidad”.

___

Boak reportó desde West Palm Beach, Florida, y Colvin desde Nueva York.

____

Esta historia fue traducida del inglés por un editor de la AP con la ayuda de una herramienta de inteligencia artificial generativa.

World

Pope to skip outdoor Sunday prayer after catching cold days ahead of Christmas Eve, Day Masses

Published

3 hours ago

December 21, 2024

Press Room

Pope to skip outdoor Sunday prayer after catching cold days ahead of Christmas Eve, Day Masses

The pope has contracted a cold and will skip his usual outdoor Sunday prayer, instead giving the blessing indoors just days ahead of his Christmas Eve and Day Masses, the Vatican said Saturday.

Chilly weather and the pope’s busy schedule during Christmas week were cited as reasons for the 88-year-old giving the blessing from his residence at the chapel of the Vatican’s Santa Marta quarters.

The pope usually addresses the public from the window of St. Peter’s Basilica overlooking St. Peter’s Square on Sundays.

BIDEN HEADING TO VATICAN CITY NEXT MONTH TO MEET WITH POPE FRANCIS, MELONI IN FINAL OVERSEAS TRIP

Pope Francis exchanges the season’s greetings with Vatican employees on Saturday. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini)

Pope Francis sounded congested on Saturday as he gave his annual Christmas greeting to Vatican bureaucrats.

The octogenarian has suffered from bronchitis before, including last year when he was hospitalized, and he also missed a climate change meeting in Dubai last year because of the flu and lung inflammation.

The pope has contracted a cold and will skip his usual outdoor Sunday prayer, instead giving the blessing indoors just days ahead of his Christmas Eve and Day Masses, the Vatican said Saturday. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini)

POPE FRANCIS REVEALS HE WAS NEARLY ASSASSINATED DURING HISTORIC IRAQ TRIP

The pope developed pleurisy in his 20s and was forced to have part of his lungs removed in his native Argentina.

Pope giving blessing from St .Peter's Basilica window

The pope usually addresses the public from a window of St. Peter’s Basilica overlooking St. Peter’s Square on Sundays. (Riccardo De Luca/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Christmas Eve also marks the beginning of the Vatican’s Holy Year in which around 32 million pilgrims are expected to head to Rome throughout 2025.

The pope will open the Holy Door of St. Peter’s Basilica on Christmas Eve and On Dec. 26, he will go to Rome’s main prison to inaugurate the start of the Holy Year there.

The Holy Year, also known as the Jubilee, is usually held every 25 years.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

World

Iceland says it will put EU membership to referendum by 2027

Published

4 hours ago

December 21, 2024

Press Room

Iceland says it will put EU membership to referendum by 2027

Iceland has traditionally been ambivalent about joining the bloc but issues like the 2008 financial crisis, Brexit and a range of domestic issues has meant the country is slowly warming to the idea of membership.

Iceland’s new government has said it aims to put the question of EU membership to a referendum by 2027.

The incoming administration of Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir, which takes over on Sunday, also said it will set up a panel of experts to look into the advantages and disadvantages of retaining the Icelandic crown over adopting the Euro.

“We agreed that a motion in parliament be agreed upon, stating that we will have a referendum on the continuation of Iceland’s European Union accession talks and that this referendum be held no later than 2027,” said incoming Foreign Minister, Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir.

Gunnarsdóttir also heads the pro-EU Liberal Reform party and is widely expected to spearhead any accession talks.

According to a poll conducted by market research company Maskína in June, support for EU membership among Iceland’s population is growing.

That poll found just over 54% of respondents were in favour of joining the bloc, with the majority saying they thought households would be financially better off as part of the EU.

That’s a significant swing in favour of membership in a country that has generally been ambivalent about joining the EU.

In his ‘Public Opinion on the EU in Iceland since 1980’ paper published by Denmark’s Aarhus University, Ragnar Auðun Árnason said that for much of the 1980s and 1990s, Iceland was broadly split into three equal camps regarding EU membership; for, against and undecided.

But issues like the 2008 financial crisis, Brexit and a range of domestic issues has meant that Icelanders seem to be slowly warming to the idea of joining the bloc.

And a significant majority of those polled by Maskína – 74.2% – said it was important that the issue be decided by referendum.

New government unveiled

The new government was presented to the public by president Halla Tómasdóttir at a ceremony in the southwestern town of Hafnarfjörður.

Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir, who is the leader of the centre-left Social Democratic Alliance, said she aims to cut inflation and interest rates.

“This new government will face challenges united. Our first task is to stabilize the economy and lower interest rates with strong leadership in fiscal policy. In the meantime, this government will break the deadlock, and work towards greater creation of wealth in the private sector. The quality of life in the country will be increased through unity surrounding these challenges,” she said.

The Social Democratic Alliance became the biggest party in November’s snap elections, called after the previous coalition government led by Bjarni Benediktsson collapsed due to infighting.

It agreed to form a government with the Liberal Reform Party and the centrist People’s Party. It’s the first time in Iceland’s history that the leaders of all the governing parties will be women.