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Turkish election: Here’s how an opposition win could impact EU ties

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Turkish election: Here’s how an opposition win could impact EU ties

Turkey is officially a candidate to join the EU but its accession talks have been frozen since 2018 over rule of law and democratic concerns.

Turkish voters will on Sunday go to the polls to vote for their next president in what most see as the most serious challenge to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership since he came to power 20 years ago. 

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the candidate picked by a united opposition, is currently leading in the polls and said that he will try to restore trust with the EU and the West which is now at a historic low.

The EU froze Turkey’s accession negotiations in 2018 in response to the deterioration of Turkish democracy.

EU leaders stated in their June 2018 summit conclusions that Turkey “has been moving further away from the European Union” and expressed concerns over its “backsliding on the rule of law and on fundamental rights”.

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They also stated that Turkey’s accession negotiations “have effectively come to a standstill” and that “no further chapters can be considered for opening or closing”.

Ankara’s naval operations near Greek islands and Cyprus have since also further ratcheted up tensions, and Turkey’s involvement in the Libyan and Syrian conflicts has led many Europeans to see its policies in the Middle East as destabilising.

What happens if the opposition wins …

… with EU talks

But the outcome of the election is unlikely to lead to a resumption of EU talks, according to analysts. Still, progress could be made in some areas should a new government in Turkey change course. 

“We are now in a very important juncture and moment, historical moment, where it will be decided if the development will be still problematic for democracy, for rule of law, but also the aggressiveness vis-a-vis EU neighbours like Greece and Cyprus will continue,” Sergey Lagodinsky, the Chair of the European Parliament’s EU-Turkey delegation told Euronews.

“We will be coming in a phase where the division between Turkey and EU will be irreversible. Whatever political decisions will be after the elections, if the decisions would go towards opening the country to democracy and rule of law, if we will see reforms in the justice system, something that we’ve been calling for a long time, then we should start talking, for example, about an update of (the) customs union.”

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“We can start talking in case of such reforms. We can start talking about a liberalization of visa regime,” Lagodinsky added.

An opposition victory would mean an opportunity to revamp relations between the EU and Turkey due to campaign promises over the rule of law and individual freedoms, Ilke Toygür, professor of European Geopolitics at the University Carlos III of Madrid told Euronews.

“Secondly, they (the opposition) are claiming that they are going to reclaim Turkey’s Western location. And thirdly, and I think it is also very important for Turkey relations, they will start playing a constructive role in regional affairs, in wider Europe and in a multilateral sense” she added.

… with Russia

It could also have repercussions on the country’s stance toward Russia. 

Ankara’s relations with NATO allies have soured over the past few years due, in part, to tensions over Turkey’s growing ties with Russia.

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Erdoğan has conducted a diplomatic “balancing act” since Russia invaded Ukraine, opposing Western sanctions on Russia and maintaining close ties with Moscow while at the same time sending drones to Kyiv.

“The Russia policy is going to be a long-term or medium- to long-term issue for Turkey, because there’s a legacy there that the relations between Turkey and Russia are relatively good. And there is also energy dependency, nuclear dependency, and an economic dependency between Turkey and Russia at this moment,” Toygur said.

“Changing these dynamics overnight is not going to be easy for any government, even if this is the opposition government” she added, noting, however, that if it is in power, the opposition “will be more sensitive to Western worries about Russia, for example, when it comes to Turkey helping Russia evading Western sanctions”.

Marc Pierini, a former EU Ambassador to Turkey also agrees that some things won’t be easy to change no matter the winner of the elections.

“Some of the features of today’s Turkey, in particular, the fact that it has increased its military power, that will not decrease. It has more political influence that may remain. And also you have other features like the nuclear power plant, electricity, and which is built and owned and operated by Russia. It’s not online yet, but it will. That is not going to go away. So whoever comes into power we’ll have to take into account this,” he told Euronews. 

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… with the Eastern Mediterranean tensions

Relations with Greece and Cyprus have also reached their worst point in decades as Erdoğan, over the past couple of years, issued veiled threats to invade his neighbour and fellow NATO member, while dialogue between Cyprus and Turkey and Turkish Cypriots has been frozen over the last six years.

The newly elected President of the Republic of Cyprus Nikos Christodulides said in an interview with Euronews in March, that the Turkish election would be a chance to revive dialogue.

“The issues will remain difficult. So the expectation there is not a miracle overnight,” Pierini commented.

“But I would expect that they return to a kind of professional dialogue about it instead of exchanging threats and, you know, redesigning all their own maritime boundaries and so on. And the same with Greece” he added.

Still, whoever wins the elections will not be able to solve these issues easily, Toygur said.

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“Turkey’s relations {with the EU} cannot be discussed separately from Turkey’s relations with Cyprus and Greece because they are EU members and extremely important when it comes to decision- making.”

“So I personally think that there will be some opposition in these areas as well. Clearly, the national interests will remain the same on both sides, not only on the Turkish side, but also on the benefit of the Cypriot and the Greek side. But I think that if there is a more fruitful relationship and thinking about Turkey’s place in the region and in wider Europe, I think there might be improvements even in these very complicated dossiers” she also said.

What happens if Erdoğan wins

Both Toygur and Pierini agree that the Turkish leader is unlikely to amend his domestic and international policy should he remain in power. 

In fact, Toygur argued, his victory could see him buckle down even more “because the coalition that he’s aligning with in this election is even more right wing. So I would even expect the more frightening attitudes when it comes to democracy and when it comes to foreign policy.”

Pierini added that there is “no example in contemporary history of an institutionalised autocracy suddenly transforming itself by miracle into a dynamic democracy. This just doesn’t exist.”

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G20 summit calls for more aid to Gaza and an end to the war in Ukraine

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G20 summit calls for more aid to Gaza and an end to the war in Ukraine

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Leaders of the world’s 20 major economies called for a global pact to combat hunger, more aid for war-torn Gaza and an end to hostilities in the Mideast and Ukraine, issuing a joint declaration Monday that was heavy on generalities but short of details on how to accomplish those goals.

The joint statement was endorsed by group members but fell short of complete unanimity. It also called for a future global tax on billionaires and for reforms allowing the eventual expansion of the United Nation Security Council beyond its five current permanent members.

At the start of the three-day meeting which formally ends Wednesday, experts doubted Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could convince the assembled leaders to hammer out any agreement at all in a gathering rife with uncertainty over the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, and heightened global tensions over wars in the Mideast and Ukraine.

Argentina challenged some of the language in initial drafts and was the one country that did not endorse the complete document.

“Although generic, it is a positive surprise for Brazil,” said Thomas Traumann, an independent political consultant and former Brazilian minister. “There was a moment when there was a risk of no declaration at all. Despite the caveats, it is a good result for Lula.”

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Condemnation of wars, calls for peace, but without casting blame

Taking place just over a year after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the declaration referred to the “catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon,” stressing the urgent need to expand humanitarian assistance and better protect civilians.

“Affirming the Palestinian right to self-determination, we reiterate our unwavering commitment to the vision of the two-State solution where Israel and a Palestinian State live side by side in peace,” it said.

It did not mention Israel’s suffering or of the 100 or so hostages still held by Hamas. Israel isn’t a G20 member. The war has so far killed more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health officials, and more than 3,500 people in Lebanon following Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.

The omitted acknowledgment of Israel’s distress appeared to run contrary to U.S. President Joe Biden’s consistent backing of Israel’s right to defend itself. It’s something Biden always notes in public, even when speaking about the deprivation of Palestinians. During a meeting with G20 leaders before the declaration was hammered home, Biden expressed his view that Hamas is solely to blame for the war and called on fellow leaders to “increase the pressure on Hamas” to accept a cease-fire deal.

Biden’s decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine’s use of longer-range U.S. missiles to allow that country to strike more deeply inside Russia also played into the meetings,

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“The United States strongly supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Everyone around this table in my view should, as well,” Biden said during the summit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend the meeting , and instead sent his foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov. Putin has avoided such summits after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant that obliges member states to arrest him.

The G20 declaration highlighted the human suffering in Ukraine while calling for peace, without naming Russia.

“The declaration avoids pointing the finger at the culprits,” said Paulo Velasco, an international relations professor at the State University of Rio de Janeiro. “That is, it doesn’t make any critical mention of Israel or Russia, but it highlights the dramatic humanitarian situations in both cases.”

The entire declaration lacks specificity, Velasco added.

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“It is very much in line with what Brazil hoped for … but if we really analyze it carefully, it is very much a declaration of intent. It is a declaration of good will on various issues, but we have very few concrete, tangible measures.”

Fraught push to tax global billionaires

The declaration did call for a possible tax on global billionaires, which Lula supports. Such a tax would affect about 3,000 people around the world, including about 100 in Latin América.

The clause was included despite opposition from Argentina. So was another promoting gender equality, said Brazilian and other officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

Argentina signed the G20 declaration, bit also had issues with references to the U.N.’s 2030 sustainable development agenda. Its right-wing president, Javier Milei, has referred to the agenda as “a supranational program of a socialist nature.” It also objected to calls for regulating hate speech on social media, which Milei says infringes on national sovereignty, and to the idea that governments should do more to fight hunger.

Milei has often adopted a Trump-like role as a spoiler in multilateral talks hosted by his outspoken critic, Lula.

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Concrete steps for fighting global hunger

Much of the declaration focuses on eradicating hunger — a priority for Lula.

Brazil’s government stressed that Lula’s launch of the global alliance against hunger and poverty on Monday was as important as the final G20 declaration. As of Monday, 82 nations had signed onto the plan, Brazil’s government said. It is also backed by organizations including the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A demonstration Sunday on Rio’s Copacabana beach featured 733 empty plates spread across the sand to represent the 733 million people who went hungry in 2023, according to United Nations data.

Viviana Santiago, a director at the anti-poverty nonprofit Oxfam, praised Brazil for using its G20 presidency “to respond to people’s demands worldwide to tackle extreme inequality, hunger and climate breakdown, and particularly for rallying action on taxing the super-rich.”

“Brazil has lit a path toward a more just and resilient world, challenging others to meet them at this critical juncture,” she said in a statement.

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Long-awaited reform of the United Nations

Leaders pledged to work for “transformative reform” of the U.N. Security Council so that it aligns “with the realities and demands of the 21st century, makes it more representative, inclusive, efficient, effective, democratic and accountable.”

Lula has been calling for reform of Security Council since his first two terms in power, from 2003 to 2010, without gaining much traction. Charged with maintaining international peace and security, its original 1945 structure has not changed. Five dominant powers at the end of World War II have veto power — the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France — while 10 countries from different regions serve rotating two-year terms.

Virtually all countries agree that nearly eight decades after the United Nations was established, the Security Council should be expanded to reflect the 21st century world and include more voices. The central quandary and biggest disagreement remains how to do that. The G20 declaration doesn’t answer that question.

“We call for an enlarged Security Council composition that improves the representation of the underrepresented and unrepresented regions and groups, such as Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean,” the declaration said.

The United States announced shortly before a U.N. summit in September that it supports two new permanent seats for African countries, without veto power, and a first-ever non-permanent seat for a small island developing nation. But the Group of Four – Brazil, Germany, India and Japan – support each other’s bids for permanent seats. And the larger Uniting for Consensus group of a dozen countries including Pakistan, Italy, Turkey and Mexico wants additional non-permanent seats with longer terms.

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Associated Press writers Aamer Madhani in Rio de Janeiro, Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations and Isabel DeBre in La Paz, Bolivia contributed.

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Foul play ruled out month after body of Walmart employee found inside walk-in oven at Canada store

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Foul play ruled out month after body of Walmart employee found inside walk-in oven at Canada store

A month after the body of a Walmart employee was found inside a walk-in oven of a store in eastern Canada, police have determined that her death was not suspicious.

The Halifax Police Department released a statement to announce that an investigation into the death of the 19-year-old woman, who was found inside the walk-in oven of the Halifax Walmart on Oct. 19, was not suspicious and there was no evidence of foul play.

“We do not believe anyone else was involved in the circumstances surrounding the woman’s death,” Halifax Regional Police Constable Martin Cromwell announced in a video update on the department’s Facebook page on Monday.

Cromwell added that they did not have many details they could share and did not expect any other updates anytime soon. 

WALMART EMPLOYEE FOUND DEAD INSIDE WALK-IN OVEN AT CANADA STORE: POLICE

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Authorities in Canada are continuing an investigation into the death of a 19-year-old employee at a Halifax Walmart bakery after police said there was no evidence of foul play. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images/File | GoFundMe)

“We acknowledge the public’s interest in this case and that there are questions that may never have answers,” said Cromwell. “Please be mindful of the damage public speculation can cause. This woman’s loved ones are grieving.”

Police have not yet released the name of the victim. However, the Gurudwara Maritime Sikh Society, an organization for Sikh immigrants, has identified the woman as Gursimran Kaur.

The group also created a GoFundMe page, which is no longer running, that raised more than $194,000 for Kaur’s family.

“Gursimran Kaur was only 19 years old, a young beautiful girl who came to Canada with big dreams,” a post on the website read.

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IDENTITY OF ‘BADLY DECOMPOSED’ BODY FOUND IN OHIO CAR WASH RELEASED: REPORT

The Walmart logo on a store

A woman was found dead inside a large walk-in oven at a Walmart store’s bakery department in Canada. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images/File)

According to the post, Kaur and her mother both worked at Walmart for the last two years.

During the evening of her daughter’s disappearance, the society executive said Kaur’s mother tried to find her after not having contact with her for an hour but brushed it aside, assuming she was helping a customer.

Kaur’s phone was reportedly also not reachable. 

“Mother started panicking as it was unusual for her to switch her phone off during the day. She reached out to the onsite admin for help,” the post continued.

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MISSOURI INFANT DIES AFTER MOTHER ‘ACCIDENTALLY’ PLACES BABY IN OVEN INSTEAD OF CRIB: POLICE

Walmart with police tape

It’s unclear how the woman died, authorities said. (KTTV)

Sadly, after a few hours, her daughter’s body was found inside a walk-in oven in the store’s bakery.

“Imagine the horror that her mother experienced when she opened the oven, when someone pointed it out to her!” the society executive described. “This family’s sufferings are unimaginable and indescribable.”

Both Kaur’s father and brother were both reportedly in India at the time of her death.

“Investigators met with family to share this update and extend condolences,” Halifax police said. “Our thoughts remain with them at this difficult time.”

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A spokesperson for Walmart previously told Fox News Digital that the store “will be closed until further notice.”

The Canadian Broadcasting Corp. reported that the store reopened on Monday and that the bakery oven was being removed from the store.

Fox News Digital reached out to Walmart for comment on the latest news but did not immediately receive a response.

Stepheny Price is writer for Fox News Digital and Fox Business. Story tips and ideas can be sent to stepheny.price@fox.com.

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Hong Kong jails all 45 pro-democracy activists in largest security case

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Hong Kong jails all 45 pro-democracy activists in largest security case

BREAKING,

Academic Benny Tai sentenced to 10 years, while others receive sentences of between four and seven years.

Taipei, Taiwan – A Hong Kong court has sentenced a leading pro-democracy advocate to 10 years in prison and handed dozens of other activists jail terms of between four and seven years in the Chinese territory’s largest national security case.

Benny Tai, a legal scholar who played a leading role in Hong Kong’s 2019 antigovernment protests, was handed the lengthy sentence on Tuesday after prosecutors cast him as the “organiser” of a conspiracy by pro-democracy activists and politicians dating back to July 2020.

Tai and 44 others were previously found guilty of offences related to organising an official primary election to choose pro-democracy candidates for the city’s legislature.

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The would-be legislators had hoped to vote down the city’s budget and force the city’s leader to dissolve the legislature.

Prosecutors alleged that the group plotted to “overthrow” the government.

Many of those arrested have been on remand since 2021, when they were first charged, due to numerous legal delays and the disruption caused by COVID-19.

Out of 47 defendants, 31 pleaded guilty.

In May, a court found 14 of the remaining activists guilty of subversion and acquitted two others, former district councillors Laurence Lau and Lee Yue-shu.

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Under Hong Kong’s national security laws introduced in 2020, defendants charged as “primary offenders” face a maximum punishment of life imprisonment, while lower-level offenders and “other participants” face sentences of between three and five years and up to three years, respectively.

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