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‘There’s no future in Ukraine’: War worsens demographic crisis

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‘There’s no future in Ukraine’: War worsens demographic crisis

Kyiv, Ukraine – Halyna Tarasevych is just not coming again dwelling to Kyiv.

The 38-year-old fled Ukraine along with her two kids in March, weeks after the Russian invasion started.

They spent three months in an overcrowded refugee centre in neighbouring Moldova till Switzerland granted them asylum.

The youngsters, 12-year-old Olena and seven-year-old Mykola, lately began faculty. They’re surrounded by caring lecturers and classmates who assist them adapt to a German-language training.

“They prefer it right here. We’ve seen a lot kindness,” Tarasevych, who has an artwork historical past diploma, advised Al Jazeera.

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Again within the Ukrainian capital, she had helped her husband Oleh run a stationery store.

Oleh nonetheless works within the store however will be a part of his household as quickly as Ukraine begins letting males aged between 18 and 60 in another country.

In contrast to tens of millions of different Ukrainians uprooted by the battle, the Tarasevyches haven’t misplaced their snug three-bedroom house or jobs. Fortunately, none of their family members or mates have been killed within the battle.

However they’re dedicated to a brand new life in Switzerland.

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“There’s no future in Ukraine,” Oleh advised Al Jazeera, citing corruption and the financial free-fall which will shrink Ukraine’s gross home product (GDP) by a 3rd this yr.

His store was not notably worthwhile earlier than the battle and switching to a different enterprise was dangerous, he stated.

He remembers fundamental, rudimentary German from his faculty days and is able to spend the remainder of his life working low-paying, menial jobs in Switzerland for the sake of his kids’s future.

“All the very best – to the kids,” he stated citing a Soviet-era slogan.

Misplaced tens of millions

The emigration of the Tarasevych household is indicative of Ukraine’s dire demographic disaster, which started a long time earlier than the battle.

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On the daybreak of independence in 1991, Ukraine’s inhabitants stood at 52 million.

The present official determine is 43 million, however the statistics are broadly understood to be removed from true.

The final census happened in 2001 and the present figures embrace greater than 2 million in annexed Crimea, in addition to a number of million in two separatist statelets – the Donetsk and Luhansk “individuals’s republics” within the southeast.

Earlier than the battle, not less than 8 million Ukrainians labored in Europe full or part-time, because of the visa-free coverage. It had additionally been comparatively simple to acquire a piece visa.

Many labored as seasonal farmhands, drivers, building employees or cashiers and got here dwelling just for Easter or Christmas.

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With every paycheque, they’d put aside sufficient cash for a brand new home or house of their hometown or village.

 

In nations reminiscent of Poland, the place tens of millions of younger Poles moved westward, changing into the proverbial “Polish plumbers”, Ukrainians noticed a chance within the scarcity of blue-collar jobs.

And a few younger Ukrainians, aware of life within the European Union, are actually decided to construct careers within the bloc.

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“He visited Germany at 16 and advised me instantly: ‘I’m studying German and going to a college there’,” Kyiv resident Kateryna Mikhaylenko stated of her 19-year-old son Aleksander.

Today, Aleksander research civil engineering at Hamburg College. He has a Montenegrin girlfriend and a part-time job at a bowling alley.

He calls his mother and father not less than as soon as a day.

“Thank God for WhatsApp,” stated his father Mikhaylenko, who earns lower than $20 a day working at a grocery retailer.

Larger wages?

The battle in Ukraine has fuelled the biggest European refugee disaster since World Warfare II.

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Based on the United Nations, 7.7 million refugees from Ukraine have been registered throughout Europe because the battle started, with most arriving in Poland.

However Ukraine’s irreversible demographic decline started within the Soviet period and stems from the catastrophic lack of inhabitants throughout World Warfare II in addition to fast urbanisation.

Based on the World Financial institution, Ukraine’s 2020 start fee was 1.22 kids per 1,000 lady, one of many world’s lowest.

By comparability, the worldwide common fee was 2.2 and 1.4 in Canada, 1.51 in Russia, 1.56 in the UK and a couple of.21 in Peru.

Ukraine’s fee makes pure inhabitants development appear unimaginable and an ageing inhabitants will additional exacerbate the post-war financial restoration, consultants say.

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Boy is wearing hat with bear ears and holding green stuffed animal as he waves from the bus window, with his aunt helping to hold him up.
Galina holds her two-and-a-half year-old nephew, Bogdan, on the Romanian-Ukrainian border, in Siret, Romania, on March 4, 2022 [Andreea Alexandru/AP]

“The return of refugees en masse is correlated to the battle scenario and, in the long run, to the technique of financial growth,” Aleksey Kushch, a Kyiv-based analyst, advised Al Jazeera.

Ukraine wants a repatriation programme, however that is unfeasible with no booming financial system, he stated.

The increase is just attainable if your entire financial mannequin is reconsidered as a result of Ukraine’s monetary elites are too used to dwelling off grain and metal exports, he stated.

“In any other case, a demographic disaster awaits Ukraine – a inhabitants of lower than 30 million, 10 million of whom are retired,” Kushch concluded.

Nevertheless, one other observer stated the scarcity of working-age individuals might show economically helpful.

“Wages can be up for individuals who keep because of the deficit on the job market,” Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher at Germany’s Bremen College, advised Al Jazeera.

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Nonetheless considerably “archaic”, the financial system should be modernised, particularly within the agriculture sector, the place the scarcity of farmhands remains to be excessive, he added.

No dwelling to return to

A Russian bomb hit Maksim Kolesnikov’s house constructing on March 26, every week after he, his mom, spouse and daughter had left the besieged southern metropolis of Mariupol.

Today, Mariupol is below Russian occupation and Kolesnikov doesn’t know for a way lengthy.

His household have settled in a tiny Polish village exterior Krakow.

They reside in a single room and are largely “bored and squabbling all day”, he stated.

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“However boredom is best than demise,” the 49-year-old lawyer, who moonlights as a cabbie in Kyiv, advised Al Jazeera.

He is able to be a part of them as quickly because the borders open as a result of restarting life from scratch in Kyiv is just not an choice.

Legal professionals within the capital are very territorial and discovering an excellent job with out connections is almost unimaginable, he stated.

“I’ll by no means have the ability to earn sufficient for a brand new house,” he stated with calm desperation.

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Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 819

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Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 819

As the war enters its 819th day, these are the main developments.

Here is the situation on Friday, May 24, 2024.

Fighting

  • At least seven people were killed and dozens more injured in a Russian missile attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city and home to about one million people.
  • Nearly 11,000 people have been forced to leave their homes in the Kharkiv region since Russian forces began a cross-border ground offensive there on May 10, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.
  • Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Russia’s Belgorod region, said one woman was killed after a destroyed Ukrainian drone fell on her house. The Russian Ministry of Defence said 35 Ukrainian rockets and three drones had been shot down over the Belgorod region, which lies across the border from Kharkiv.
  • Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed its forces had recaptured the small village of Andriivka in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. The Ukrainian General Staff said later that its troops were repelling three Russian assaults in the area of Andriivka and nearby Novyi. Andriivka was liberated by Ukrainian soldiers in an offensive last September.
  • Sergei Aksyonov, the head of the Russia-annexed Crimea peninsula, said two people were killed in a Ukrainian missile attack near Simferopol, the peninsula’s main administrative centre. Ukraine has not commented on the alleged attack. Russia invaded and annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
  • Russia said it brought down a Ukrainian drone in its central Tatarstan region, hundreds of kilometres from the two countries’ border.

Politics and diplomacy

  • Russia arrested Lieutenant-General Vadim Shamarin, deputy head of Russia’s General Staff, and a high-ranking defence official on corruption and “abuse of power” charges in a widening crackdown on corruption in military contracts. The two are being held in custody pending trial.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Belarus, Moscow’s closest ally, for talks with President Alexander Lukashenko that are expected to focus on security and military exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons.
  • Putin signed a decree allowing the confiscation of assets inside Russia belonging to the United States, its citizens and companies, to use as compensation over Western sanctions against Moscow.
  • Russia jailed 36-year-old barman Vladimir Malina for 25 years for joining a unit of Russians fighting for Ukraine and carrying out sabotage of railway equipment.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, arrived in Belarus for two days of talks with close ally Alexander Lukashenko [Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik, Kremlin/Pool via AP Photo]
  • Russia jailed 20-year-old student Vladimir Belkovich, from Siberia’s Irkutsk region, to 13 years in prison for treason after he agreed to post leaflets on behalf of a pro-Ukraine partisan group.
  • Thirteen Ukrainian children returned home from Russia and Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine with the cooperation of Qatar, officials in Kyiv said. Ukraine says about 20,000 Ukrainian children have been sent to Russia without the consent of their families or guardians.
  • OVD-Info, a leading Russian rights group and protest monitoring network, said it had received a notice from YouTube threatening to block access in Russia to one of its video channels featuring news on the war in Ukraine.

Weapons

  • Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba again called on the country’s Western allies to send seven Patriot air defence systems. “They are needed now, not tomorrow,” he said.
  • The US is preparing a new $275m military aid package for Ukraine, which will include high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS), as well as 155mm and 105mm high-demand artillery rounds, Javelin and AT-4 antitank systems, antitank mines, tactical vehicles and small arms.
  • Russian jamming has prevented many of Ukraine’s relatively new long-range glide bombs from hitting their intended targets, Reuters reported, citing three people familiar with the challenges.
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'Ron, I love that you're back': Trump and DeSantis put an often personal primary fight behind them

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'Ron, I love that you're back': Trump and DeSantis put an often personal primary fight behind them

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are signaling to donors that they are putting their rivalry behind them after a contentious and often personal primary fight.

DeSantis convened his allies this week in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, to press them to raise money to support Trump, making the case over a seafood and steak dinner that they need to work together to prevent Democratic President Joe Biden from winning a second term. The governor and about 30 people then spent Thursday morning in a hotel conference room raising money for an outside group that supports the former president’s 2024 White House campaign.

Trump called into the gathering to thank members of the group for their work, according to four people familiar with the matter who were not authorized to publicly discuss the private session and spoke on condition of anonymity.

In what three people present described as a warm and gracious call to the group that was heard over speakerphone, Trump praised DeSantis and the effort, saying “Ron, I love that you’re back.”

A reconciliation helps both of them. Trump is trying to make up fundraising ground against Biden while DeSantis hopes to preserve a potential future White House run for which Trump’s supporters could be key.

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What to know about the 2024 Election

DeSantis and his top donors are raising money for the super political action committee Right for America, backed by big Republican donors such as Ike Perlmutter, who has agreed to match at least a portion of the DeSantis team’s fundraising rather than funneling money directly to Trump’s campaign.

That arrangement, reached after talks between the Trump and DeSantis camps, is designed to address concerns among DeSantis supporters about their money going to pay the former president’s legal bills, according to people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity to discuss the private talks. Trump notably blessed the structure when he called into the group’s meeting Thursday.

“This is where I want you to focus,” Trump said in a roughly 15-minute call, according to a senior political adviser to DeSantis who was not authorized to publicly discuss the private meeting and spoke on condition of anonymity.

DeSantis’ decision to push money to the PAC instead of giving directly to Trump’s campaign has raised eyebrows among some Trump campaign officials, according to a person familiar with the former president’s campaign thinking who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the arrangement.

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Right for America is competing for donors with MAGA Inc., the chief super PAC backing Trump. Such groups are prohibited from directly coordinating with a presidential campaign, something that hamstrung DeSantis during his presidential run due to conflicts between his campaign and his support of Never Back Down, the largest super PAC backing DeSantis’ candidacy.

Other supporters of both men support the arrangement. Right for America is run by Sergio Gor, a longtime Trump ally who is close to the former president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr. The two run Winning Team Publishing, which published two of the former president books.

Some DeSantis donors had been reluctant to give to Trump because they worried their money would help pay Trump’s lawyers in his criminal cases instead of being used directly to focus on beating Biden.

A number of big-name Florida contributors who have given to DeSantis remain hesitant about contributing to efforts to support Trump, said Al Hoffman, a Palm Beach County Republican donor and former Republican National Committee finance chair.

“I know that there are Republican conservative, big-money donors that are very reluctant to endorse Trump,” said Hoffman, who was also chairman of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s 2002 reelection campaign.

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DeSantis endorsed Trump when he dropped out of the race and promised in a face-to-face meeting with the former president in April to work for his campaign. The 45-year-old governor, who has won two terms and pushed a longtime swing state increasingly to the right, may run for the White House again and would need the backing of Trump voters in a future Republican primary.

DeSantis called his allies to Fort Lauderdale this week to raise money for Trump, telling them on Wednesday night that they needed to work to prevent a second Biden term.

The meeting was the kickoff for what is expected to be a coast-to-coast fundraising effort by DeSantis allies, with upcoming events likely in Texas, California, Washington state and perhaps New York.

Trump and DeSantis have also discussed a role for the governor at the Republican National Convention. Aides to DeSantis said it was Trump’s suggestion and was not contingent on any fundraising effort on DeSantis’ part.

Donors who discussed the Thursday event were struck by the collegiality between Trump and DeSantis during the call to the meeting. One person who spoke on condition of anonymity about the closed-door gathering called the conversation “very gracious” and noted that Trump and DeSantis talked about golf, a favorite Trump pastime.

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Associated Press writer Jill Colvin in New York contributed to this report.

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The Mystery of Indira Gandhi's assassination by her own bodyguards

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The Mystery of Indira Gandhi's assassination by her own bodyguards

Indira Gandhi, a prominent Indian politician and the daughter of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s inaugural prime minister, was tragically assassinated by her own bodyguards on Oct. 31, 1984. 

Born Nov. 19, 1917, she emerged as a central figure in her country’s political landscape, eventually becoming prime minister in her father’s footsteps. 

The trust she placed in her favorite Sikh security guard, following Operation Blue Star, ultimately proved to be a fatal mistake. In exploring the narrative of Gandhi’s assassination, it is crucial to examine the backgrounds and motivations of her assailants, shedding light on the reasons that led to their fatal decision.

Prior to her time in office, Indira Gandhi studied at prominent institutions, including Somerville College, Oxford and the Visva-Bharati University in West Bengal. (Shukdev Bhachech/Dipam Bhachech)

Who was Indira Gandhi?

Gandhi served as her country’s third and only female prime minister starting in 1966 to 1977, and then served another term from 1980 until she died in 1984.

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As a central figure of the Indian National Congress, she was admired for her leadership and criticized for her authoritarian approach. She played a significant role in Indian politics and is often cited as a trailblazer for women throughout the country.

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Gandhi was a key player in Indian politics for 17 years, whether in office or out of it. She played an active role in the Independence movement and closely worked with her father, Jawaharlal Nehru, a pivotal figure in the establishment of contemporary India, serving as his assistant when he was prime minister. In 1959, she also held the position of president of the Indian National Congress.

Indira Gandhi speaks into microphone to crowd

Indira Gandhi’s tenure has been characterized by significant economic and social changes, but also by allegations of authoritarianism.

Indira Gandhi becomes prime minister

Gandhi rose to power suddenly after Lal Bahadur Shastri died in 1966. At the outset of her leadership, India struggled with significant economic hardships, including high inflation and food shortages. The country’s agricultural sector was vulnerable due to its dependence on the monsoon seasons and aid from the U.S. 

She also faced substantial political challenges and dedicated much of her tenure to overcoming these issues, the same issues Nehru attempted to resolve. She fought to direct India toward self-reliance and economic resilience. By 1980, India had become self-reliant and even became a nation of grain surplus, alongside notable industrial progress — achievements attributed to her governance.

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Indira Gandhi with father Nehru

Indira Gandhi’s involvement in politics began at an early age, often accompanying her father on his political campaigns. (Hulton Archive)

Acknowledged milestones during her leadership include the triumph in the 1971 War with Pakistan, the formation of Bangladesh and the cementing of India’s status as a potential nuclear power. All of these developments strengthened India’s self-esteem. 

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Her tenure ended with her assassination, leaving behind a legacy of achievements and unresolved tensions. 

Indian society was divided about her; some called her “Mother Indira,” and others viewed her as authoritarian. However, it is widely accepted that her leadership shaped India and set the course for its future.

Ram Bulchand Lalweni being led away to court after a failed assassination attempt of Indira Gandhi

Indira Gandhi was assassinated by her own Sikh bodyguards on Oct. 31, 1984, following the events of Operation Blue Star. (Keystone/Getty )

Operation Blue Star

Gandhi’s time as prime minister was impaired by increasing tensions with Sikh separatists, culminating in Operation Blue Star. This was the Indian army’s response in June 1984 to remove militant Sikh leader Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale and his followers, who had hidden themselves within the Golden Temple in Amritsar. The militants’ substantial armaments led to a heavy-handed military response, which included the use of artillery.

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The conflict ended on June 10 with the army seizing control of the temple. However, the operation, which coincided with a significant Sikh religious event, resulted in numerous civilian deaths who were present at the time. This resulted in widespread condemnation from Sikhs globally. They interpreted it as an attack on their religious community.

Indira walking during the Inspecting Guard of Honor ceremony

Indira Gandhi served as prime minister of India for three consecutive terms (1966-77) and a fourth term from 1980 until her assassination in 1984.

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The repercussions of Operation Blue Star severely damaged Gandhi’s standing with Sikhs, which eventually led to her assassination.

Assassination of Indira Gandhi

Gandhi’s assassination on Oct. 31, 1984, was committed by her bodyguards, notably Beant Singh, who was considered a favorite. The assassination was a consequence of the tensions from Operation Blue Star and led to a planned reassignment of Sikh bodyguards, including Singh. Gandhi canceled the transfer, worried about increasing her anti-Sikh persona. 

Indira Gandhi with son Sanjay

Indira Gandi married Feroze Gandhi in 1942, and together had two sons, Rajiv Gandhi and Sanjay Gandhi. (Keystone/Getty)

On the morning of her assassination, despite being advised to wear a bulletproof vest, Gandhi was not wearing it. 

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As she walked through a gate headed to an interview, Singh shot her three times in the abdomen with his .38 revolver. Satwant Singh, another bodyguard, fired 30 rounds from his submachine gun. Following the assault, Beant was located and killed by Border Police, and Satwant was tried and executed in 1989.

Indira Gandhi’s son, Rajiv Gandhi, succeeded her as prime minister of India. 

EDITOR’S NOTE: This report has been updated to clarify Indira Gandhi’s successor.

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