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The Toll of 10 Months of Simmering Conflict on the Israel-Lebanon Border

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The Toll of 10 Months of Simmering Conflict on the Israel-Lebanon Border

Source: Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project

Even before a deadly rocket strike and a round of assassinations renewed fears of a wider war across the Mideast, the steady, simmering conflict between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon proved devastating.

For almost a year, both sides have been carefully calibrating their tit-for-tat attacks to avoid a larger conflict. But the near-daily exchanges of fire have added up.

Satellite imagery makes clear just how profound the toll has been on both sides of the border. This is what one Lebanese town, Aita al-Shaab, looked like before and after it came under attack.

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Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants, who are backed by Iran, have been fighting off and on for years. But the conflict intensified last October after another Iranian ally, Hamas, led an attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip, setting off the war there.

In the cross-border fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, the most widespread structural destruction has been in Lebanon, where thousands of buildings have been damaged or destroyed. The thousands of Israeli attacks since October have far outnumbered Hezbollah attacks into Israel, according to data collected by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, a nonprofit that studies world conflicts.

Around a quarter of the structures are damaged in some villages, according to an analysis of satellite data by Corey Scher of the CUNY graduate center.

Israeli airstrikes and shelling in Lebanon have killed nearly 500 people, at least 100 of them civilians, according to the U.N. and Lebanon’s health ministry.

Hezbollah has launched 7,500 rockets, missiles and drones since the start of the war in Gaza, according to the Israeli prime minister’s office, killing 43 people in Israel, more than half of them civilians, and setting swaths of farmland ablaze. Northern Israel has seen more than 700 wildfires, according to the prime minister’s office, which Israel has blamed on the Hezbollah barrages.

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This satellite imagery shows what happened to large areas of dry brush surrounding the Malkiya kibbutz after it was ignited.

Sources: Planet Labs, OpenStreetMap

It is not only Israel that is burning.

The fighting has caused significant fires on both sides of the border, and many fear they may cause long-lasting damage to land that plays an important role in food production.

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Many villages near the border on both sides are ghost towns. Roughly 60,000 people in northern Israel and 100,000 in southern Lebanon have been displaced by the fighting along the border since October, with no clear timeline for returning home.

Where fires have broken out

Sources: Ororatech, OpenStreetMap

Note: Fire boundaries are rough estimates of thermal activity based on satellite detections. Detections since the war began are from Oct. 7, 2023 to Aug. 6, 2024, and those before the war are from the same period a year earlier.

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Now, there is fear that like the wildfires, the conflict itself may spread. In the past three weeks, attacks have escalated, threatening a larger regional war.

In July, a rocket from Lebanon killed 12 civilians in a town in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. It was the deadliest attack on Israeli-controlled territory since the Oct. 7 attacks led by Hamas.

Israel responded with a strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs, killing a Hezbollah leader along with five civilians, according to Lebanese authorities. A senior Hamas figure was assassinated hours later in the capital of Iran. Both Hezbollah and Iran vowed vengeance.

Lebanon’s border towns with Israel, made up mainly of Shiite Muslims, are a bastion of support for Hezbollah. But there are also Christian and Sunni Muslim enclaves.

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Some of those border towns that have borne much of the destruction in the current attacks were the scene of heavy ground fighting in 2006, when Israel and Lebanon fought their last war.

A U.N. peacekeeper inspecting a house destroyed by an Israeli attack in the southern Lebanese village of Yarine.

Diego Ibarra Sánchez for The New York Times

Now, with hostilities heating up, some Israelis want their country to mount a full-scale invasion again. Others fear that an all-out response from Hezbollah could be devastating. The militants’ arsenal of sophisticated precision-guided missiles is considered capable of striking cities across Israel, along with critical infrastructure like power plants and ports.

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Israeli military commanders have their own concerns. They are still prosecuting one major war — against Hamas in Gaza — and do not relish the prospect of a second. And with munitions stockpiles dwindling, it is unclear how intense a battle the military could wage in Lebanon.

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Israel sees no certainty Iran’s government will fall despite war

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Israel sees no certainty Iran’s government will fall despite war
Israeli officials in closed discussions have acknowledged there is no certainty the war against Iran will lead to a collapse of its clerical government, a senior Israeli official told Reuters, with no sign ​of an Iranian uprising amid the bombardment.
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Canada’s Carney under pressure to act after synagogues shot at in latest antisemitic incidents

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Canada’s Carney under pressure to act after synagogues shot at in latest antisemitic incidents

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Over the weekend, two Toronto synagogues were attacked by gunfire. Several days earlier, another synagogue was hit by around twenty gunshots on the Jewish holiday of Purim. 

Though the three attacks caused no injuries, many in the Jewish community are demanding concrete action from Prime Minister Mark Carney — not just words of comfort that have typically followed such antisemitic incidents.

Carney took to X saying that the “antisemitic and criminal attacks violate the right of Canadian Jewish men and women to live and pray in complete safety” and “represent a serious assault on the way of life of all Canadians.”

ISRAELI MINISTER WARNS CANADA IS ‘MARCHING TOWARD THE ABYSS’ AFTER JEWISH MAN ATTACKED IN FRONT OF CHILDREN

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Temple Emanu-El in Toronto, Canada was shot at on March 3, 2026. No injuries were reported. (Nick Lachance/Toronto Star via Getty Images)

In the aftermath of the first synagogue attack, Israel’s National Security Council warned Israelis overseas to “maintain vigilance and adhere to safety precautions.” Among their suggestions were for Israelis to “conceal Jewish and Israeli identifiers while in public spaces,” to be aware of surroundings “in areas associated with Israel or Judaism,” and to “avoid visiting sites identified as Jewish or Israeli.”

On X, Israeli President Isaac Herzog said that “all eyes are on Canada: it’s time to halt the unprecedented wave of Jew-hatred that has erupted since October 7th.”

Anti-Israel demonstrators gather outside Union Station during a rally in Toronto, Ontario on Jan. 4, 2024.  (Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Like many Western countries, Canada has seen a marked rise in annual antisemitic incidents since the Hamas terror attack in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. The League for Human Rights B’nai Brith Canada found that there were 6,219 incidents of antisemitism in Canada in 2024. This constituted an average of 17 incidents per day, more than double the eight incidents per day calculated in 2022. 

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CANADA’S ANTISEMITISM ENVOY RESIGNS, CITING EXHAUSTION AMID HATE SURGE

While figures for 2025 have yet to be released, Public Safety Canada noted that from April to June 2025, “Among hate crimes targeting religion… the majority were directed at the Jewish community (69%).”

Conservative MP Roman Baber, said the behavior of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and other liberal Canadian politicians have been “adding fuel to the fire of Jew hatred in Canada.”

Baber aimed further criticism at Carney, saying, “When the Prime Minister on the campaign trail says he knows there is genocide in Gaza, he engages in Jew hatred.”

General view of Beth Avraham Yoseph of Toronto synagogue in Thornhill, north of Toronto, Ontario. The place of worship was one of three synagogues attacked in early March 2026.

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Baber was referring to an event in April 2025 during which a heckler yelled over a bustling crowd that “there is a genocide happening in Gaza.” Carney responded, “I’m aware, that’s why we have an arms embargo.”

SKYROCKETING ANTISEMITISM IN CANADA SPARKS CONCERN FOR COUNTRY’S JEWS AHEAD OF ELECTION

Carney later said that he did not hear the heckler use the term “genocide.”

Baber noted that “when the Prime Minister recognized the Palestinian state, he rewarded the brutality of Hamas, and he did so on the eve of Rosh Hashanah.”

In his announcement, released the day prior to the Jewish holiday, Carney claimed that recognizing “the State of Palestine, led by the Palestinian Authority, empowers those who seek peaceful coexistence and the end of Hamas,” and “in no way legitimizes terrorism, nor is it any reward for it.” He also claimed recognition “in no way compromises Canada’s steadfast support for the State of Israel, its people, and their security.” 

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Anti-Israel protesters gather outside the Beth Avraham Yoseph of Toronto synagogue on March 7, 2024. The place of worship was one of three synagogues shot at in the first week of March 2026. (Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Watchdog organization StopAntisemitism told Fox News Digital that “every day we are seeing painful reminders that antisemitism remains a real and dangerous threat. Acts of violence meant to intimidate or silence our community will not succeed. Loud and proud Jews will not allow hatred or fear to deter our Jewish way of life or our presence in the world. Not in Canada, in the United States, in Europe, and certainly not in Israel.”

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StopAntisemitism called for the perpetrators to “be punished to the fullest extent of the law so that justice is served and deterrence is clear.”

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Not ‘a litre of oil’ to pass Strait of Hormuz, expect $200 price tag: Iran

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Not ‘a litre of oil’ to pass Strait of Hormuz, expect 0 price tag: Iran

Warning comes as 400 million barrels of oil are being released from global reserves during waterway’s closure.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it will not allow “a litre of oil” through the Strait of Hormuz as the closure of the key Gulf waterway continues to roil global energy markets during the US-Israeli war on Iran.

A spokesperson for the IRGC’s Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters said on Wednesday that any vessel linked to the United States and Israel or their allies “will be considered a legitimate target”.

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“You will not be able to artificially lower the price of oil. Expect oil at $200 per barrel,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “The price of oil depends on regional security, and you are the main source of insecurity in the region.”

Global oil prices have fluctuated wildly this week during continued US-Israeli attacks against Iran, which has retaliated by firing missiles and drones at targets across the wider Middle East.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies transit, and production slowdowns in some Gulf countries have raised concerns of further disruptions.

Concerns around the duration of the war, which began on February 28 and has shown no sign of abating, are also adding to uncertainty, sending oil prices soaring.

On Wednesday, three ships were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, maritime security and risk firms said, including a Thai-flagged cargo vessel that came under attack about 11 nautical miles (18km) north of Oman.

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Release of oil reserves

World leaders, including members of the Group of Seven (G7) and the European Union, have been mulling what action to take in response to the war’s impact on global economies.

Christian Bueger, a professor of international relations at the University of Copenhagen and an expert in maritime security, said Europe will be facing “a major energy supply crisis” if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

“For the shipping industry right now, it’s impossible to go through the Strait of Hormuz,” Bueger told Al Jazeera. “And if there are not stronger signals in the near future that they can at least try to go through the strait, then we are looking at a major shipping crisis, which can last weeks if not months.”

On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that its 32 member countries had unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves to try to lower prices.

“This is a major action aiming to alleviate the immediate impacts of the disruption in markets,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said during an address from the agency’s headquarters in Paris.

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“But to be clear, the most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and gas is the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.

The reserve supplies will be made available “over a timeframe that is appropriate” for each member state, the IEA said in a statement without providing details.

German Economy and Energy Minister Katherina Reiche said earlier in the day that the country would comply with the release while Austria also said it would make part of its emergency oil reserve available and extend its national strategic gas reserve.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said it would release about 80 million barrels from its private and national oil reserves.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the country, which gets about 70 percent of its oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz, would begin releasing the reserves on Monday.

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