World
The sea is higher than we thought and millions more are at risk, study finds
Climate change’s rising seas may threaten tens of millions more people than scientists and government planners originally thought because of mistaken research assumptions on how high coastal waters already are, a new study said.
Researchers studied hundreds of scientific studies and hazard assessments, calculating that about 90% of them underestimated baseline coastal water heights by an average of 1 foot (30 centimeters), according to Wednesday’s study in the journal Nature. It’s a far more frequent problem in the Global South, the Pacific and Southeast Asia, and less so in Europe and along Atlantic coasts.
The cause is a mismatch between the way sea and land altitudes are measured, said study co-author Philip Minderhoud, a hydrogeology professor at Wageningen University & Research in the Netherlands. And he attributed that to a “methodological blind spot” between the different ways those two things are measured.
Each way measures their own areas properly, he said. But where sea meets land, there’s a lot of factors that often don’t get accounted for when satellites and land-based models are used. Studies that calculate sea level rise impact usually “do not look at the actual measured sea level so they used this zero-meter” figure as a starting point, said lead author Katharina Seeger of the University of Padua in Italy. In some places in the Indo-Pacific, it’s close to 3 feet (1 meter), Minderhoud said.
Dilrukshan Kumara looks at the ocean as he stands by the remains of his family’s home in Iranawila, Sri Lanka, June 15, 2023. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena, File)
One simple way to understand that is that many studies assume sea levels without waves or currents, when the reality at the water’s edge is of oceans constantly roiled by wind, tides, currents, changing temperatures and things like El Niño, said Minderhoud and Seeger.
Adjusting to a more accurate coastal height baseline means that if seas rise by a little more than 3 feet (1 meter) — as some studies suggest will happen by the end of the century — waters could inundate up to 37% more land and threaten 77 million to 132 million more people, the study said.
That would trigger problems in planning and paying for the impacts of a warming world.
People at risk
“You have a lot of people here for whom the risk of extreme flooding is much higher than people thought,’’ said Anders Levermann, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research in Germany, who wasn’t part of the study. And Southeast Asia, where the study finds the biggest discrepancy, has the most people already threatened by sea level rise, he said.
Minderhoud pointed to island nations in that region as an area where the reality of discrepancy hits home.
Children play on an uprooted tree along a beach in Mele, Vanuatu, July 19, 2025, that was once lined with vegetation, now largely lost to storms, erosion and other environmental pressures. (AP Photo/Annika Hammerschlag, File)
For 17-year-old climate activist Vepaiamele Trief, the projections aren’t abstract. On her island home in the South Pacific archipelago of Vanuatu, the shoreline has visibly retreated within her short lifetime, with beaches eroded, coastal trees uprooted and some homes now barely 3 feet (about 1 meter) from the sea at high tide. On her grandmother’s island of Ambae, a coastal road from the airport to her village has been rerouted inland because of encroaching water. Graves have been submerged and entire ways of life feel under threat.
“These studies, they aren’t just words on a paper. They aren’t just numbers. They’re people’s actual livelihoods,” she said. “Put yourself in the shoes of our coastal communities — their lives are going to be completely overturned because of sea level rise and climate change.”
Paying attention to the starting point
This new study is pretty much about what is the truth on the ground.
Calculations that may be correct for the seas overall or for the land aren’t quite right at that key intersection point of water and land, Seeger and Minderhoud said. It’s especially true in the Pacific.
Gravestones sit submerged in water on Pele Island, Vanuatu, a country heavily affected by rising seas July 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Annika Hammerschlag, File)
“To understand how much higher a piece of land is than the water, you need to know the land elevation and the water elevation. And what this paper says the vast majority of studies have done is to just assume that zero in your land elevation dataset is the level of the water. When in fact, it’s not,” said sea level rise expert Ben Strauss, CEO of Climate Central. His 2019 study was one of the few the new paper said got it right.
“It’s just the baseline that you start from that people are getting wrong,” said Strauss, who wasn’t part of the research.
Maybe not so bad, some scientists say
Other outside scientists said that Minderhoud and Seeger may be making too much of the problem.
“I think they’re exaggerating the implications for impact studies a bit — the problem is actually well understood, albeit addressed in a way that could probably be improved,” said Gonéri Le Cozannet, a scientist at the French geological survey. Most local planners know their coastal issues and plan accordingly, Rutgers University sea level expert Robert Kopp said.
That’s true in Vietnam in the high-impact area, Minderhoud said. They have an accurate sense of elevation, he said.
The findings come as a new UNESCO report warns of major gaps in understanding how much carbon the ocean absorbs. That report said that models differ by 10% to 20% in estimating the size of that carbon sink, raising questions about the accuracy of global climate projections that rely on them.
The coastline of Efate Island, Vanuatu is visible on July 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Annika Hammerschlag, File)
Together, the studies suggest governments may be planning for coastal and climate risks with an incomplete picture of how the ocean is changing.
“When the ocean comes closer, it takes away more than just the land we used to enjoy,” said Thompson Natuoivi, a climate advocate for Save the Children Vanuatu.
“Sea level rise is not just changing our coastline, it’s changing our lives. We are not talking about the future — we’re talking about the right now.”
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The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment
World
Intense Israeli strikes hit Iran and Lebanon as US warns the bombardment will ‘surge dramatically’
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Intense Israeli airstrikes pounded the capitals of Iran and Lebanon early Friday as the U.S. apparently struck an Iranian drone carrier at sea in its unrelenting campaign against the Islamic Republic’s fleet of warships.
Iran launched new retaliatory attacks in the Middle East at the end of a full week of bombardment, which U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned was “about to surge dramatically.”
Israel’s military said Friday morning it had begun “a broad-scale wave of strikes” on Tehran, Iran’s capital. Witnesses described the Israeli airstrikes as particularly intense, shaking homes in the area. Others reported explosions around the Iranian city of Kermanshah in an area that is home to multiple missile bases.
The Israeli military said strikes have already destroyed most of Iran’s air defenses and missile launchers.
The war has escalated to affect countries across the Middle East and beyond. Early Friday, Iran fired missile and drone attacks into Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, all countries that host U.S. forces. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
In Lebanon, where the war has rekindled fighting between Israel and Iran-allied Hezbollah militants, Israel launched a series of airstrikes late Thursday into Friday in the southern suburbs of Beirut and other areas. Motorists jammed roads trying to flee or seek shelter.
The U.S. and Israel have battered Iran with nationwide strikes, targeting their military capabilities, leadership and nuclear program.
In addition to Israel, Iran’s attacks have targeted their Arab neighbors, disrupted oil supplies and snarled global air travel. The war has killed at least 1,230 people in Iran, more than 120 in Lebanon and around a dozen in Israel, according to officials in those countries. Six U.S. troops have been killed.
US says it struck an Iranian drone carrier
The U.S. military said early Friday that it struck an Iranian drone carrier, setting it ablaze.
The U.S. military’s Central Command released black-and-white footage of the burning carrier. The Iranian military did not immediately acknowledge the attack.
The drone carrier, the IRIS Shahid Bagheri, is a converted container ship with a 180-meter-long (yard) runway for drones. The vessel can travel up to 22,000 nautical miles without needing to refuel in ports, reports said at the time of its 2025 inauguration.
Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, described the carrier as “roughly the size of a World War II aircraft carrier.”
“And as we speak, it’s on fire,” Cooper told reporters.
Earlier in the week, an American submarine sank an Iranian frigate off the coast of Sri Lanka as it was returning from an exercise hosted by the Indian navy that the U.S. also joined. The sinking killed at least 87 sailors.
Under cover of darkness Friday morning, B-2 stealth bombers dropped dozens of 2,000 pound “penetrator” bombs on deeply buried ballistic missile launchers inside Iran, Cooper said.
“We’ve also struck Iran’s equivalent of Space Command, which degrades their ability to threaten Americans,” Cooper said.
Speaking alongside Cooper, Hegseth gave few details when he promised an upcoming surge.
“It’s more fighter squadrons, it’s more capabilities, it’s more defensive capabilities,” Hegseth said. “And it’s more bomber pulses more frequently.”
Iran targets country’s hosting US forces
Qatar’s Defense Ministry reported early Friday it intercepted a drone attack targeting Al Udeid Air Base, which hosts the forward headquarters of the U.S. Central Command.
Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed three ballistic missiles fired early Friday toward Prince Sultan Air Base south of Riyadh, which hosts U.S. forces, said a spokesperson for Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense.
Air raid sirens sounded in Bahrain, where the Interior Ministry said Iranian strikes targeted two hotels and a residential building. It said there were no casualties. In Kuwait, where the six U.S. soldiers were killed Sunday, the Kuwaiti army said its air defenses were activated when missile and drone attacks breached Kuwait’s airspace.
Cooper said Iranian attacks had now hit a dozen countries, who would be welcome to play a more active role in the conflict.
“Those 12 countries are none too happy and I look forward to working with all the partners who are willing to join us,” he said.
Trump again urges Iranians to “take back” their country
In brief remarks at the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump again urged the Iranian people to “help take back your country.” This time he promised the U.S. would grant them “immunity” amid the war and ongoing dangers under the current Iranian regime.
“So you’ll be perfectly safe with total immunity,” Trump said, without giving any details about what that meant. “Or you’ll face absolutely guaranteed death.”
Cooper and Hegseth cautioned Iranians not to take to the streets while the conflict is still raging, however.
“It’s common sense, don’t go out and protest while bombs are dropping” Hegseth said.
“The best thing for them to do now is just to lay low,” Cooper added.
In an interview with the news website Axios, Trump said he should be involved in choosing Iran’s new supreme leader to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening strikes of the war. Trump spoke dismissively of Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, being a front-runner to replace his father, calling him “a lightweight.”
“We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran,” Trump said.
Iranian officials meet to discuss new leadership
Iranian state television reported Friday that a leadership council had started discussing how to convene the country’s Assembly of Experts, which will select the new supreme leader.
The leadership council includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehi and cleric Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi.
The statement provided no timeline on the selection of the supreme leader, nor information on whether the Assembly of Experts would meet in person or remotely for the vote.
Buildings associated with the Assembly of Experts, a 88-member clerical panel, have been attacked during the Israeli-U.S. airstrike campaign.
Israel hits Lebanon with multiple airstrikes around Beirut
Israel carried out at least 11 airstrikes late Thursday and early Friday, targeting the southern suburbs of Beirut. Fires broke out near a gas station.
The Israeli army issued a warning Thursday evening, urging residents to “save your lives and evacuate your homes immediately.” Two hospitals evacuated patients and staff. No casualties were immediately reported.
The Lebanese health ministry said the death toll has risen to 123 since the resurgence of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, which struck Israel in the opening days of the war.
A spokesperson for the U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, Tilak Pokharel, said Thursday that peacekeepers had seen and heard clashes, including ground combat, in southern Lebanon as more Israeli forces have moved across the border.
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Bynum reported from Savannah, Georgia, Rising from Bangkok and Abou AlJoud from Beirut, Lebanon. AP journalists around the world contributed.
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This version has corrected the date of the ship’s inauguration to 2025, not 2005.
World
Private flights account for 30% of departures from Oman airport as wealthy evacuate Middle East
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Long border crossings, SUV convoys and six-figure jet charters have become the new escape route out of the Middle East as Operation Epic Fury intensifies, with private flights now accounting for nearly a third of all departures from Oman’s main airport.
FlightRadar24, a real-time flight tracking platform, reported that while Oman continues to be a “vital” hub for evacuation and repatriation flights, private flights accounted for 31% of operations Wednesday at Muscat International Airport.
As of Thursday afternoon, the platform reported more than 30% of all movements at the airport were private flights.
Semafor reported earlier this week that airports in Oman and Saudi Arabia were drawing ultra-wealthy travelers looking to leave the countries.
Oman continues to be a “vital” hub for evacuation flights at its Muscat International Airport. (Christopher Pike/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
People familiar with the matter told the outlet that private security companies have been booking fleets of SUVs to take people on the 10-hour drive from Dubai to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where private flights are available.
The clientele evacuating the region are a mix of senior executives at global finance firms and wealthy travelers in the region for business or vacation, according to Semafor.
LIV golfer Jon Rahm, a two-time major winner, was just one of the wealthy who arranged flights amid the turmoil.
MIDDLE EAST CRUISE NIGHTMARE DEEPENS AS IRAN AIRSTRIKES LEAVE PASSENGERS STRANDED
Rahm arranged a charter flight through his partnership with VistaJet, a private aviation company, to fly the seven stranded LIV golfers and a caddie from Oman to Hong Kong after their flights were canceled.
After a more than four-hour drive to Oman, the crew flew to Hong Kong.
A spokesperson for Air Charter Service, a company that acts as a global broker for private jets and freight transport, told FOX Business the company has arranged more than 10 evacuation flights, with more scheduled, mainly out of Oman with passengers looking to flee Dubai.
AMERICAN STUCK IN MIDDLE EAST ESCAPES IN RACE TO REACH CRITICALLY ILL HUSBAND IN CALIFORNIA
FlightRadar24 shared flights flying in and out of Muscat airport. (@Flightradar24 via X)
“We evacuated some of our own staff who were just visiting the region, and we arranged transport via the Hatta crossing into Oman from the UAE to get them to Muscat from where they flew out of the region,” the spokesperson said. “The border crossing time at Hatta took around 3–4 hours, as of Sunday, but I suspect this has increased now, as more people look at this option.”
Light flight jet trips from Muscat, Oman, to Istanbul, Turkey, are reportedly going for more than $93,000, according to Forbes, which said the price was about double the usual rate.
The outlet added the same route on heavy jets can cost up to $140,000.
AMERICANS IN MORE THAN A DOZEN MIDDLE EAST NATIONS URGED TO FLEE
This map shows the targets of Iran’s retaliatory strikes. (Fox News)
The U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran Saturday, triggering retaliatory attacks targeting countries in the region that host U.S. interests.
Mora Namdar, Assistant Secretary of State for Consular Affairs, advised U.S. citizens to leave Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
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The limited number of available aircraft has pushed up prices, as citizens and travelers attempt to flee.
Fox News Digital’s Ryan Morik and Ashley Carnahan contributed to this report.
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