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‘Riding a rollercoaster’ in Myanmar’s post-coup economy

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‘Riding a rollercoaster’ in Myanmar’s post-coup economy

Bangkok/Yangon – For Aung Thet, a profitable entrepreneur in Yangon, working a enterprise beneath Myanmar’s army regime looks like “driving a rollercoaster”.

The Southeast Asian nation’s financial system has been delivered to its knees by the battle triggered by the army’s energy seize two years in the past.

Overseas buyers have headed for the exits and the generals have compelled corporations like Aung Thet’s to transform their international change accounts into Myanmar kyat. Criticism of the army administration isn’t tolerated.

“It’s a really hostile surroundings for businesspeople and the dangers for talking out on coverage points are excessive,” Aung Thet, who requested to talk beneath a pseudonym, advised Al Jazeera. “Even the nationwide enterprise foyer doesn’t have a lot clout over the junta’s financial insurance policies. They may very well be brutal to businesspeople who voiced their criticisms.”

In some methods, Aung Thet is comparatively lucky. His firm is within the agricultural export sector and isn’t existentially threatened so long as farmers proceed to provide the crops he sells in international locations – together with in Africa and Europe.

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Since toppling Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically-elected authorities on February 1, 2021, the army has cracked down on the civilian inhabitants opposing the coup and crammed the nation’s prisons with individuals crucial of its rule.

However opposition to the army – led by the Nationwide Unity Authorities (NUG) established by the elected politicians the army overthrew – stays sturdy and the generals have been unable to safe full management of the bulk Bamar heartland. In the meantime, ethnic armed teams – some aligned with the resistance – have consolidated their rule over swathes of the nation.

Whereas the streets of Yangon stay busy, the local weather for enterprise because the coup has worsened [AFP]

An enormous civil disobedience motion and shopper boycott have additionally undermined the army’s maintain over the federal government equipment and harm military-owned corporations with well-known manufacturers.

Beneath Senior Normal Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar has additionally confronted its worst-ever energy cuts and joined Iran and North Korea on world watchdog Monetary Motion Process Pressure’s monetary terrorism blacklist.

Economically, Myanmar has skilled appreciable banking and foreign money volatility in addition to an exodus of massive international names together with Norway’s Telenor, Alibaba of China, French large Whole and Ooredoo of Qatar.

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Gross home product (GDP) shrunk by nearly a fifth in 2021 earlier than rising by simply 3 % from a a lot smaller base the next yr.

The World Financial institution this week put Myanmar’s progress for the fiscal yr ending in September at 3 % however warned that per capita GDP would stay about 13 % under its degree earlier than the COVID-19 pandemic. Which means Myanmar’s 2023 GDP will nonetheless be smaller than the pre-coup financial system.

Restoration from the shocks of COVID-19 and the coup “is anticipated to stay subdued within the close to time period, constrained by vital macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainty, persistent battle, and ongoing electrical energy outages,” the World Financial institution stated in its replace.

Myanmar’s poverty fee has additionally greater than doubled in contrast with pre-COVID ranges, based on the Worldwide Labour Group. Family revenue has additional diminished and meals insecurity has worsened.

Rising costs

The undoing of a decade of financial progress, mixed with the army authorities’s failure to quell the resistance, poses a risk to Min Aung Hlaing’s capability to ship on strategic tasks for China and different supporters. Additionally they put in danger the final’s plan for elections later this yr, that are extensively seen as a manner for the army to cement its maintain on politics by its proxy, the Union Solidarity and Growth Social gathering.

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The army regime has detained a few of Myanmar’s tycoons and confiscated the passports of international company executives. The jailing final yr of distinguished international enterprise advocate Vicky Bowman, a former United Kingdom ambassador to Myanmar, and her husband, particularly, have raised concern amongst worldwide buyers.

In April, the administration ordered banks and different holders of international foreign money to transform all deposits into the native foreign money, kyat, giving international foreign money holders someday to change their holdings at licensed banks. Enterprise teams and diplomats, together with the Chinese language ambassador, complained concerning the coverage.

A bowl of mohinga soup, a popular breakfast for people in Myanmar. The dish contains noodles and fish. There is a slice of lime on the side and green herbs scattered on top.
Rising costs are affecting individuals throughout Myanmar, with mohinga, a standard breakfast rice-noodle dish with fish soup, now costing greater than double what it did on the time of the coup [File: Ann Wang/Reuters]

The transfer made it inconceivable to purchase United States {dollars} to settle funds for suppliers. Companies have needed to rely on casual remittances, similar to convincing suppliers to simply accept IOUs. The choice is to undergo middlemen, which entails a charge of as a lot as 5 %.

“Let me be completely frank. The generals did the fixing of USD in April and it’s a foul transfer,” Aung Thet stated. “Since 2022, the insurance policies are risky on imports, even for important gadgets. At some point they stated this was their high precedence and the following day they got here out with a unique take. It’s extraordinarily risky and tough. It forces us to think about cutting down our companies with the intention to survive.”

Whereas Aung Thet’s firm laid off 5 % of staff after the coup, he has been in a position to preserve the remaining – a number of hundred individuals – on the payroll with out having to chop their revenue. Revenues, in hundreds of thousands of {dollars} earlier than the coup, have stabilised since late final yr.

“Farmers should do what they will do,” he stated. “In the event that they missed a month of rising crops, they might wrestle massively to remain afloat, particularly smaller farmers.”

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However in areas the place there may be energetic combating, similar to Sagaing and Kayah states, farmers have suffered heavy losses, Aung Thet stated.

“Kayah’s agriculture business has been decimated whereas Sagaing – one other hotspot between the resistance and the regime – has misplaced round 30 % of its crop. However others have soldiered on as a result of farmers have to develop crops to outlive,” he stated.

Whereas the depreciation of the kyat has made farmers’ exports extra aggressive abroad, rising costs, pushed by hovering petrol prices, have eaten into their income.

In Yangon’s tea outlets, the price of Mohinga, a standard breakfast of rice noodles and fish soup, has greater than doubled because the coup.

Farmers are additionally struggling to entry credit score as micro-finance establishments and banks have reduce on lending.

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“Marginalised and smaller, poorer farmers can’t afford to purchase fertilisers, as a result of their costs have tripled,” Aung Thet stated. “That is extraordinarily tough.”

The army administration has downplayed the financial difficulties because the coup.

“If everyone strives for enhancing the state’s financial system with momentum, Myanmar will attain the center class of economies amongst ASEAN international locations in a short while,” Min Aung Hlaing stated final month throughout a gathering with army officers and households in western Rakhine state.

The military chief has claimed that the financial system declined beneath Aung San Suu Kyi’s authorities and that the army had led its revival.

GDP grew by a stable 2.4 % in the course of the first half of the 2021-22 fiscal yr and by 3.4 % within the second half, he advised fellow officers at a gathering in Naypyidaw on January 6, the numbers far increased than these given by the World Financial institution.

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The NUG dismisses Min Aung Hlaing’s rosy prognosis.

The generals have “pushed the financial system off the cliff by terrorising the workforce, destroying labour rights and imposing disastrous insurance policies similar to foreign exchange restrictions,” Dr Sasa, an NUG cupboard minister, advised Al Jazeera.

He stated the minimal wage had not elevated at the same time as costs had risen and famous that the illicit financial system had expanded. This was in reference to a United Nations Workplace on Medication and Crime report final week that confirmed Myanmar’s opium manufacturing was at a nine-year excessive.

“The generals severely broken enterprise confidence and pushed half of the inhabitants beneath the poverty line,” Sasa stated.

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The minimal wage stays at 4,800 Myanmar kyat [$2.30] a day – a degree set in 2018.

Min Aung Hlaing has additionally pushed for “home manufacturing” and referred to as for much less reliance on imports and international help.

Shadows of Than Shwe

The final’s financial plans – which embrace proposals to construct a metro system within the capital Naypyidaw and switch Myanmar right into a hub for electrical automotive manufacturing regardless of repeated blackouts – have drawn comparisons with former strongman Than Shwe, whose concentrate on infrastructure included the event of Naypyidaw, which was inbuilt secret, and the development of the controversial Myitsone dam.

Myanmar accredited $1.45bn in international direct funding in the course of the first seven months of the 2022-23 fiscal yr, most of it from Singapore, a conduit for international cash into Myanmar and China, based on official information. The army administration has stopped disclosing the tasks it has accredited because the coup, scrapping or proscribing entry to a variety of company registries.

Chinese language vitality corporations are among the many few international companies that seem prepared to make new investments within the nation, collaborating within the administration’s plan to increase solar energy.

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Nonetheless, given the size of the issues afflicting the business, consultants say the undertaking is unlikely to handle the basis explanation for the nation’s continual blackouts, which embrace the collapse of secure governance, battle and foreign money volatility.

“Myanmar’s vitality system is in shambles and there’s no plan to repair it. Not immediately, not in 5 years,” Guillaume de Langre, an vitality knowledgeable who used to advise the Myanmar authorities, advised Al Jazeera. “The junta is mendacity to buyers, whereas native resistance forces are ramping up subtle assaults on crucial factors of the facility grid.”

A state of emergency imposed after the coup was prolonged once more on Wednesday, by six months, suggesting the election the army had stated can be held by August may be delayed.

A woman crosses a near-empty street in Yangon. She is carrying an umbrella to protect herself from the sun
The streets of Yangon, Myanmar’s largest metropolis and industrial capital, had been nearly abandoned on Wednesday as individuals took half in a ‘silent strike’ to indicate their opposition to the coup [AFP]

Even when the polls do go forward, they’re unlikely to do a lot to reassure buyers.

“The ‘elections’ usually are not poised to encourage any noticeable investor confidence in Myanmar, at the very least for the rapid time period,” stated a supply in Yangon who has entry to the army and declined to be named for worry of reprisals. He expects enterprise processing occasions will stay slower now that the state of emergency has been extended.

“[The] crackdown within the post-election interval will intensify in a bid to color the resistance because the impediment from returning to ‘enterprise as common’.”

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However not like multinationals, Myanmar’s businesspeople, shopkeepers and farmers have nowhere to go.

“Livelihoods matter,” Aung Thet stated. “Proper now Myanmar is within the worst-ever state I’ve seen in my life: Damaged financial system, damaged society, damaged all the pieces. However you’d be shocked to be taught that I think about the nation’s future. I’m fearful but decided to plough on.”

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Justin Baldoni Sued by Former Publicist Amid Blake Lively Scandal

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Justin Baldoni Sued by Former Publicist Amid Blake Lively Scandal

Justin Baldoni‘s former publicist sued him, his company and his current publicity team on Tuesday, amid a spiraling scandal over an alleged smear campaign against Baldoni’s “It Ends With Us” co-star Blake Lively.

Steph Jones, who owns Jonesworks, accused Baldoni of breaching their contract, which required him to pay her $25,000 per month. Baldoni dropped the firm in August, a few months into a year-long deal, after his Jonesworks publicist, Jennifer Abel, left the company to start her own publicity firm.

Jones also sued Abel and publicist Melissa Nathan, accusing them of implementing the smear campaign against Lively behind her back and without her knowledge. She alleges that they are now trying to blame her for the ensuing meltdown.

“To this day, Abel and Nathan continue to point the finger falsely at Jones now that their own misconduct is coming to light, and to defame and attack Jones in the industry,” the lawsuit states.

Lively filed a complaint on Saturday with the California Civil Rights Department, accusing Baldoni and his publicists of orchestrating negative coverage about her in retaliation for her complaints of sexual harassment on set.

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In the complaint, Lively accused Baldoni of a catalog of sexually inappropriate comments and behavior that allegedly took place on set in 2023. According to the complaint, she raised these issues through her attorneys before filming, which had been suspended during the Hollywood strikes, resumed earlier this year.

The rift between Baldoni and Lively became apparent during the publicity tour for the film last summer. Baldoni feared that Lively or her team would public accuse him of sexual misconduct, and sought ways to combat that. The complaint quoted extensively from text messages among Baldoni’s publicity team, in which they plotted to “bury” Lively.

In an unusual move, Lively’s attorneys obtained the messages by sending a pre-litigation subpoena to Jones.

Abel, Nathan, and Baldoni are represented by attorney Bryan Freedman. On Monday, Freedman threatened to sue Jones for releasing the contents of Abel’s phone to Lively’s legal team. Freedman, Abel and Nathan did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Jones’ suit.

In her lawsuit, Jones relates that she “forensically preserved” Abel’s company phone after Abel was fired.

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“Abel and Nathan’s covert take down and smear campaigns were revealed in black and white on Abel’s company-issued phone following her termination, which Jonesworks forensically preserved and examined in detail after receiving a subpoena for the phone’s contents,” Jones’ suit states. “Jones discovered the breadth and intensity of Abel and Nathan’s duplicity from these records, including that Abel was actively encouraging other Jonesworks clients and employees to leave Jonesworks while Abel was still employed there.”

Jones’ suit alleges that Abel conspired for months to leave her company and to “steal” her clients and trash her reputation in the industry. She accuses Nathan of encouraging Abel to leave, because Nathan would then have greater access to those clients.

“This scheme ultimately inflicted serious damage on Jones and Jonesworks,” states the lawsuit, which was filed in state court in New York.

Among other things, the suit alleges that Abel and Nathan planted negative stories about Jones in the press, including an article in Business Insider that was published last summer.

The suit alleges breach of contract, tortious interference with contract, breach of fiduciary duty and defamation.

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Police officer dressed as the 'Grinch' steals Christmas spirit during drug bust

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Police officer dressed as the 'Grinch' steals Christmas spirit during drug bust

A Peruvian police officer dressed as the Grinch, the cantankerous and green-furred villain, busted suspected drug traffickers in the South American country’s capital days before Christmas. 

The operation in San Bartolo in Lima resulted in the arrest of three suspects, according to a video posted online by the Peruvian National Police. 

“In an ingenious operation, agents of the Green Squad arrested the aliases La Reina del Sur, La Coneja and Pote, alleged members of the La Mafia de San Bartolo gang, dedicated to drug dealing,” a police post on X states. “Various narcotics were seized.”

FLORIDA MAN WHO WAS HALF-NAKED, ‘HIGH ON METH’ BREAKS INTO HOME, GRABS CARPET CLEANER

The “Grinch” posing with suspected drug traffickers. A Peruvian police officer dressed as the Christmas villain helped bust the alleged traffickers.  (Peru National Police)

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Using what appeared to be a sledgehammer, the officer walked down the street dressed as the infamous Christmas villain with a small heart before breaking down the front door of a home and entering, according to the video footage. 

The suspects were arrested, and the “Grinch” is seen rummaging through various items in the home before finding what authorities said were illegal drugs and other items related to drug trafficking.

MORE THAN $31M OF METH CONCEALED IN SHIPMENT OF PEPPERS SEIZED AT TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER

The Grinch with a hammer

A Peruvian police officer dressed as the “Grinch” on his way to bust suspected drug traffickers.  (Peru National Police )

Peru is the second-largest producer of cocaine and cultivator of coca in the world, according to the State Department. 

“The majority of cocaine produced in Peru is transported to South American countries for domestic consumption, or for onward shipment to Europe, the United States, East Asia, and Mexico,” the State Department website said. 

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Peru’s national police force has carried out similar operations in the past. 

The "Grinch" busting down a door

The “Grinch” busting down a door (Peru National Police)

On Halloween 2023, officers disguised as horror favorites Freddy Krueger, Jason Voorhees and Tiffany Valentine, the murderous doll in the “Child’s Play” series, also broke into the home of alleged drug dealers. 

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Are your Christmas gifts ready? Here are where EU toys come from

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Are your Christmas gifts ready? Here are where EU toys come from

While the EU saw a drop in toy exports, China was the EU’s biggest supplier, providing 80% of these imports, valued at €5.2 billion.

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In 2023, the EU imported €6.5 billion worth of toys from countries outside the bloc, a €2 billion decrease compared to 2022. 

According to the latest Eurostat figures, China was the EU’s biggest supplier, providing 80% of these imports, valued at €5.2 billion. 

Vietnam followed with 6% and the United Kingdom with 2%. 

Around a fifth of the EU’s toy imports ended up in Germany, while France and the Netherlands received 16% and 14%, respectively. 

At the same time, the EU exported €2.3 billion worth of toys in 2023.  

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This figure represents a slight decrease of €0.2 billion from the previous year. 

More than half of the toys exported from the EU came from the Czech Republic, Germany and Belgium. 

The UK was the top destination for EU toy exports, receiving 30% of the total, followed by Switzerland at 13% and the United States at 10%. 

Concerns over toy safety

A recent Toy Industries of Europe study revealed that 80% of toys purchased from third-party sellers on online marketplaces failed to meet EU safety standards.

The research tested over 100 toys from various platforms, uncovering serious health risks such as choking hazards and toxic chemicals.

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At the beginning of September, the European Parliament backed a proposal to improve the safety of toys available on the EU market.

The proposal focused particularly on decreasing the number of unsafe toys in the EU market and better protecting children from toy-related risks, including banning harmful chemicals in toys.

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