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Major harnessing of trolls shows threat to Hungarian democracy is real

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Major harnessing of trolls shows threat to Hungarian democracy is real

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

Hundreds of coordinated fake profiles are engaged in pro-government influence operations on Facebook ahead of municipal and European Parliament elections in Hungary in 2024, Péter Krekó, Csaba Molnár and Ráchel Surányi write.

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Next year, Hungarians will head to the polls to elect local officials and representatives to the European Parliament on the same day. 

These elections will likely come against a backdrop of continuing high division between the European Commission and Hungary, over the latter’s persistent disregard for EU values, and the pro-Kremlin and pro-Beijing manoeuvring of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Orbán is likely to enter 2024 in a strong position. In April 2022, he cemented his power by securing a landslide victory over a united political opposition. 

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His ruling Fidesz party, ahead of the European Parliament elections, has set its sights on chipping away at the Hungarian opposition’s gains from the last municipal elections, in which it won control over the capital of Budapest and several other major cities. 

The gamed decision to hold the two elections on the same day, and to frame much of the debate around so-called “foreign interference” from Brussels and Washington makes life difficult for Budapest’s mayor, Gergely Karácsony, and other leading opposition candidates. 

They will also contend with the most unbalanced media landscape in the EU, which not only makes it difficult for them to reach the voters but is so loaded in favour of Fidesz’ messaging that smear campaigns against opposition politicians are now commonplace. 

A spike in Kremlin-style troll activity

Since regaining office in 2010, exerting greater and greater control over the Hungarian media space has been a key ambition of Orbán and his Fidesz party. 

Over the past thirteen years, they have built up unprecedented control over the media, to the point that Hungary is now an informational autocracy.

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With this traditional media space largely captured, the Hungarian government is now turning its attention to social media, especially Facebook, as part of its efforts to control public messaging. 

New research from our Budapest-based think tank Political Capital has found a growing, Russian playbook-like proliferation of troll activity on Facebook, which, to date, has infiltrated over 450 public groups nationwide — but with a particular, and seemingly coordinated, emphasis on Budapest. 

The city’s mayor Karácsony and other opposition figures are the principal targets of troll and misinformation activity within these groups — which often takes the form of sharing pro-government news articles that baselessly smear Karácsony’s administration and amplify Fidesz counter-messaging. 

Given the expanding use of “fake profiles”, and their scale in activity, it is not unreasonable to argue that we are approaching a point where they would threaten the integrity of the 2024 elections.

By tracking and monitoring the characteristics of these users, Political Capital has been able to determine that almost all of the profiles in question are fake.

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Obvious red flags aplenty

For one, this is evidenced by their profile and cover images, which herald almost invariably from the pages of existing foreign individuals, mainly from the Russian social media platform VKontakte and, in some cases, other sites, such as Russian, Bulgarian, and Ukrainian dating websites. 

While some of the profiles bear Hungarian names, there is often a clumsiness to the profile creation, with many of the Facebook URLs containing other names, which may reveal the account’s true origin. 

Furthermore, in an obvious red flag to their authenticity, they do not post anything on their page except for completely impersonal and re-shared content with mixed messages (such as commercial, animal-related, etc.).

The activity of these profiles is also heavily targeted. On Facebook, there is often an explicit focus on amplifying government narratives in community groups and spreading disinformation and defamatory content discrediting opposition parties and politicians, such as Karácsony and others. 

This almost mirror-like behaviour across profiles suggests some central coordination. It is also revealing that, after their activation or “rebranding” in many cases, they join Facebook groups at a scale, including non-political local community groups and groups with public affairs content with pro-government, anti-government and even pro-opposition leaning. 

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They are often found clustered in the same national political groups, which indicates some level of strategic deployment.

Only Meta can judge these

In some cases, this network even deploys safety mechanisms. Political Capital’s research found that large numbers of these profiles publish with various intensities in the groups they have joined, while some serve as “sleeper profiles” that have not yet been “activated” as publishers. 

Upon publication of this data haul in September, researchers found that the URLs of some profiles changed overnight to match their assumed identity on Facebook — thereby, unintentionally, confirming that they are indeed fake profiles, which are being centrally coordinated. 

Only Facebook’s owner, Meta, can reveal the origin and location of these profiles en masse and act to have them removed.

We have called for this and pointed out that, if they are left unchecked, they could develop roots in community groups, and scale their reach to other Facebook users — and, importantly, potential voters.

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This harnessing of trolls and manipulation of social media is a sad indication of the direction of travel for Hungary and its democracy under Orbán. 

This is just a test phase

Over the past decade, the prime minister and his party have established an amount of control over the media landscape in Hungary that seriously threatens its freedom. 

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In 2021, Reporters Without Borders charged Orbán with being a “press freedom predator”, and, before the 2022 elections, investigative reporters found that a Hungarian fund financed pro-government social media personalities to the tune of several million euros to spread the government’s messages. 

It was subsequently revealed by a global coalition of journalists that the Hungarian government used Pegasus spyware to surveil journalists, media owners and politicians.

It is clear: as the municipal and European Parliament elections draw closer, the amount of fake news and smear campaigns pushed through traditional mediums by pro-government sources will intensify. 

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But so will the activity of fake profiles on Facebook and other social media platforms.

What we are witnessing in Hungary is a test phase and scaling of something that belongs to a Kremlin-inspired playbook. The threat to the 2024 elections and the very future of the public space in our country is real.

Péter Krekó serves as Executive Director, Csaba Molnár is Head of Research and Data Analyst, and Ráchel Surányi is Analyst at the Political Capital Institute in Budapest.

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World

15 years on, the Tamil survivors of Sri Lanka's brutal civil war live in fear — and disempowerment

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15 years on, the Tamil survivors of Sri Lanka's brutal civil war live in fear — and disempowerment

MULLAITIVU, Sri Lanka (AP) — At the site of a bloody battlefield that marked the end of Sri Lanka’s civil war, Singaram Soosaimuthu fishes every day with his son, casting nets and reeling them in.

It is a skill he has known for much of his life — and one that he had to relearn after a devastating injury. The former Tamil fighter lost both legs in 2009 as the nation’s generation-long civil war drew to a close and the Tamils retreated in defeat.

Making something of himself despite his injuries brought Soosaimuthu success — an achievement in which he finds profound meaning. He sees his fellow ethnic Tamils in the same light: To regain their voice, they must thrive.

But defeat — bloody, protracted and decisive — has brought Sri Lanka’s minority Tamil community to a point of despair.

Some parents have given up hope of ever learning the fate of the thousands of missing children. Parts of the Tamil lands are decimated, with poor infrastructure and fewer economic opportunities. Survivors have lived under surveillance for years, and many now feel that members of the rising generation have grown too fearful and apathetic toward speaking up for their rights.

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“There is a clear agenda underway to degenerate a defeated community,” says Selvin Ireneus, a social activist based in Jaffna, the Tamils’ northern cultural heartland.

The government, he says, doesn’t want today’s Tamils to be politically evolved. After fighting ended, he asserts, narcotics and other vices have been systematically introduced into the region. “They only want them to eat, drink and enjoy and not have a political ideology,” Ireneus said. “This has happened with all defeated communities in the world.”

The island nation of 20 million is overwhelmingly ethnically Sinhalese, with the Tamil community making up about 11% of the population. The separatist civil war broke out in 1983 after years of failed attempts to share power within a unified country, with Tamil fighters — known as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, or simply the Tamil Tigers — eventually creating a de facto independent homeland in the country’s north.

The group was crushed in a 2009 government offensive. The war killed at least 100,000 on both sides, and left many more missing.

Though not all Tamils were part of or supported the Tamil Tiger rebel group, their defeat has effectively become a political defeat to the community. They have lost their bargaining power.

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“What is remaining now is a very small community, and they don’t have the courage … to show dissent,” says K.T. Ganeshalingam, head of political science at the University of Jaffna.

Sri Lanka’s government had promised the United Nations and countries like India and the United States that they would share power with the Tamil-majority areas to resolve the causes that led to the civil war. However, successive governments have not followed up.

Fifteen years on, some in Tamil areas are still in denial that the armed campaign has been defeated and that the rebel leader Velupillai Prabhakaran, who was seen as invincible, has been killed. Sections of the expatriate Tamils in Europe have been claiming that Prabhakaran would return soon to take on the campaign to the next stage, including a woman who claims to be his daughter and is said to be collecting donations in his name.

Prabhakaran’s nephew in Denmark, Karthic Manoharan, says the time has come to put a stop to the rumors and state, emphatically, that the leader is dead.

“We don’t have any doubt regarding (his death) because he loved his country so much. And he’s not a coward to run from the country and live in another country, in a different country to save himself, his wife and his daughter,” Manoharan says.

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Such beliefs are more than simply inaccurate, says Ganeshalingam; they’re genuinely harmful to any possible future that the Tamil people are trying to chart. He wonders: “If I have not grasped the fact that I am defeated, how can I rise from that?”

Discussing the Tamil Tigers’ defeat, their past mistakes and even Prabhakaran’s death is discouraged in Tamil society, especially in the diaspora. Ganeshalingam says such attitudes have created a stagnation in Tamil politics.

Political leaders are divided and are in disarray. A political alliance that the Tamil Tigers formed is fragmented with many leaders breaking away to form their own parties. Civil activists are now working to unify them and strengthen their bargaining position ahead of the presidential election later this year.

In the villages of Mullaitivu district, where the final battle between government forces and the Tamil Tigers unfolded, many men are addicted to narcotics and alcohol, forcing women to be the family’s main breadwinners, says Yogeswari Dharmabaskaran, a social worker in the Udaiyarkattu area of Mullaitivu district. School dropouts soar in the villages, she says, as boys find easy money through selling narcotics, illegal tree-felling and the mining of river sand.

In Jaffna, local politician Thiyagaraja Nirosh says family elders discourage young people from discussing political rights. Because of that, it is difficult to find younger candidates to run in local elections.

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“There is fear that talking politics is dangerous. Many family elders do not encourage talking politics,” Nirosh says “The reason is that there has been no justice for the past killings. They see no guarantee that such incidents won’t recur.”

Thayalan Kalaipriya, a former rebel, wonders about the future often. She says her many losses have made her deeply desire unity among all Sri Lankans; at the same time, she says it is painful to realize their efforts to win political rights have been wasted.

Former rebels often do not receive adequate support and at times ex-fighters, like those who conscripted children at the height of the war, are treated with resentment, although she says some respect their commitment and sacrifice.

She finds solace by working with her young children, educating them and helping to give them a good life in a land she hopes is free of civil war and the sad echoes it has caused.

“We teach our children about what happened,” she says, “but never to seek revenge.”

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Associated Press journalist Nat Castañeda in Copenhagen contributed to this report.

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Turkish drone strikes in Syria kill 4 U.S.-backed fighters, wound 11 civilians, Kurdish group says

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Turkish drone strikes in Syria kill 4 U.S.-backed fighters, wound 11 civilians, Kurdish group says

Turkish drone strikes in northeastern Syria on Friday evening killed four U.S.-backed fighters and wounded 11 civilians, the Kurdish-led force said.

The strikes on areas held by the U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces came a day after Turkey’s president said his government won’t hesitate to act against Kurdish-led groups in northern Syria if they proceed with plans to hold local elections. It accuses the groups of having links to outlawed Kurdish militants in Turkey.

TURKEY SENTENCES PRO-KURDISH POLITICIANS TO LENGTHY PRISON TERMS OVER DEADLY 2014 RIOTS

The SDF said drone strikes hit its positions eight times as well as civilian homes and vehicles in and near the northern city of Qamishli. Such Turkish strikes are not uncommon in northeastern Syria.

The Kurdish Red Crescent said that as its paramedics were trying to reach the attacked areas, a Turkish strike hit one of its ambulances, putting it out of service. It said the attack occurred near the town of Amouda, west of Qamishli.

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A U.S.-backed force in Syria says Turkish drone strikes in northeastern Syria have killed four Kurdish fighters and wounded 11 civilians. (Fox News Digital)

There was no immediate comment from Turkey.

The Kurdish-led autonomous administration that controls northern and eastern parts of Syria has announced plans to hold municipal elections June 11. The vote to choose mayors will be held in the provinces of Hassakeh, Raqqa, Deir el-Zour and the eastern part of Aleppo province.

On Friday, State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel posted on X that “we don’t think that the conditions for such elections are in place in NE Syria in present time.”

The comments appeared to be a message to Kurdish-led authorities not to hold the elections.

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Turkey, which has conducted military operations in Syria in the past, considers the move a step by Syrian Kurdish militants toward the creation of an independent Kurdish entity across its border. It has described the planned polls as a threat to the territorial integrity of both Syria and Turkey.

“We are closely following the aggressive actions by the terrorist organization against the territorial integrity of our country and of Syria under the pretext of an election,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Thursday.

Turkey considers the Kurdish militia group, known as the People’s Protection Units, as a terrorist group linked to an outlawed Kurdish group that has led an insurgency in Turkey since 1984. That conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party has killed tens of thousands of people.

The People’s Protection Units provide the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces, which is a key U.S. ally in the fight against the Islamic State group. American support for the SDF has infuriated Turkey and remains a major source of friction in their relations.

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'Fridays for Future' demonstrators march ahead of EU elections

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'Fridays for Future' demonstrators march ahead of EU elections

The march comes ahead of the European elections next week, with the demonstrators also emphasising the role of the EU.

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Supporters of the Friday for Future climate movements took to the streets ahead of the European elections. 

Demonstrators emphasised the role of the European Union in climate protection in climate marches in Berlin and Amsterdam.  

It is now about fighting for democracy and for the climate, some of them said. 

According to the ‘Fridays for Future organisation, more than 13,000 people demonstrated in the German capital. 

In Amsterdam, thousands took to the streets to demand large companies stop financing projects that damage nature, people and the environment.  

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“I think it’s particularly important that we take a step forward here now, not just across Germany but also across Europe,” said one demonstrator. 

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