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Macron-Le Pen face-off: Five reasons why it’ll be different this time

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Emmanuel Macron goes into the French presidential run-off because the frontrunner forward of Marine Le Pen, together with his first-round lead over his rival barely bigger than it was in 2017.

However spherical two of the duel between the pro-European centrist and his nationalist challenger appears to be like set to be a really completely different, a lot nearer race than it was 5 years in the past.

Since Macron’s then-new “En Marche” motion strode to energy, the political panorama has developed considerably.

Immediately, the incumbent represents the institution, and successful over an indignant, divided France to maintain the far-right out will likely be a a lot more durable activity.

The prospect of Le Pen lastly getting into the Elysée is an actual risk.

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1. ‘Far-right on the gates of energy’ – a a lot tighter race predicted

The alarm bells amid the surge in help for Le Pen within the run-up to the first-round vote grew to become much more shrill because the consequence emerged.

A number of defeated candidates warned of a “far-right… on the gates of energy”. Anne Hidalgo for the Socialists known as “with gravity” on supporters to again Macron to stop France from “tipping over into hatred, with everybody in opposition to one another”. Valérie Pécresse of the Republicans stated she would do the identical “to stop Marine Le Pen coming to energy and the chaos that might consequence”.

Two opinion polls revealed on Sunday evening proceed to counsel a a lot tighter second-round race than in 2017 when Macron gained a landslide as many citizens acted to dam the far-right as that they had finished in 2002 with Le Pen’s father.

One survey by Ipsos France provides Macron an eight-point lead, on 54% with Le Pen on 46%. One other from Ifop Opinion places them nearly neck-and-neck, with Macron solely simply forward by 51%-49%.

The “Rassemblement Nationwide” (“Nationwide Rally”) chief campaigned deftly earlier than the primary spherical on the price of residing, the voters’ precedence situation. She known as for unity behind her trigger after securing her run-off place.

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However for her rivals and a few analysts, Le Pen’s reassuring message and softened picture masks a programme that is still anchored on the exhausting proper: anti-immigration, for discrimination in opposition to foreigners together with EU residents, banning Muslim veils in public, and able to defy the EU on basic rules.

Douglas Webber of the INSEAD enterprise faculty described her camp as “insular” and “nationalist”. Regardless of a public picture now completely “un-demonised”, the left-leaning think-tank the Jean Jaurès Basis concludes that Le Pen’s social gathering stays “as radical as earlier than”, constructed on an “authoritarian ideological core, primarily based on the denunciation of insecurity and immigration” that are nonetheless “important components of its place”.

2. Macron because the institution, not the outsider

Emmanuel Macron has by no means loved widespread recognition among the many French public.

However final time no less than he was a fresh-faced challenger to the French political establishment. 5 years on, he’s the incumbent and familiarity has bred contempt: many see him because the institution personified.

In 2017, Macron gained solely 24% of the vote within the first spherical of the election. Many on the left decried him because the “bankers’ pal” or the “candidate of the wealthy”. However for the fitting, his earlier function in François Hollande’s authorities noticed him branded a socialist, pilloried as an enemy of conventional conservative values.

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This time, he has succeeded in successful over extra help, significantly from the centre-right, and to a lesser extent, the centre-left. His authorities’s dealing with of the COVID-ravaged financial system has been praised by economists. Unemployment has fallen to its lowest in over a decade. Entrepreneurship, job creation and job safety have been inspired. Power costs have been capped. Inflation is decrease than in comparable European nations.

However away from the massive cities and rich elements of the countryside, rising costs proceed to hit those that rose up amid the “gilets jaunes” (“yellow vests”) revolt in 2018-19, when a wave of protests over an ill-fated rise in gasoline responsibility grew right into a near-insurrection. A subsequent drive to rework the enter of residents into the decision-making course of has been criticised for bringing little consequence.

For a lot of, the president cuts an antagonistic determine, seen as aloof and disconnected from the preoccupations of peculiar folks. His broadside in opposition to the vaccine-averse earlier this 12 months (he vowed to “piss them off all the way in which”) induced additional alienation.

Le Pen will probably proceed to pummel a message that she is in contact with the grassroots and can enhance folks’s spending energy. Macron’s marketing campaign slogan is “Nous tous” (“All of us”). The president has underneath two weeks to persuade many, who at the moment consider he represents something however, that his message of inclusion is honest.

3. A far weaker ‘republican entrance’

Twenty years in the past, the wave of revulsion after “Entrance Nationwide” chief Jean-Marie Le Pen reached the presidential run-off noticed him swept apart as tens of millions, even on the left, propelled Jacques Chirac to a run-off rating of 82% and a second time period in workplace.

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Fifteen years later, the “republican entrance” was nonetheless alive as hostility to Le Pen’s daughter, who had taken on the far-right mantle, secured victory for Emmanuel Macron in 2017 with two-thirds of the vote.

In 2022, Marine Le Pen has largely succeeded in ditching the violent, racist, antisemitic, xenophobic tags that dogged the social gathering for many years. Though many can be alarmed to see her take the keys of the Elysée, many others — particularly on the left — are equally if not much more hostile to Macron.

Essential to the result this time are the intentions of those that voted for the left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who completed an in depth third with practically 22%.

“We should not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen,” the narrowly-defeated candidate repeated a number of instances on Sunday evening. However neither he nor his shut allies have stated whether or not they may end up on 24 April and tick Emmanuel Macron’s title on the poll paper.

As issues stand, no less than a 3rd of Mélenchon’s followers look set to disregard his recommendation. “Immediately, Mélenchon’s voters intend to vote 34% for Emmanuel Macron, 30% for Le Pen — which is greater than in 2017 — and 36% to remain at residence,” stated Ipsos director Brice Teinturier.

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“I voted for (left-wing candidate) Mélenchon however I’ve no want to vote for Macron within the second spherical, that can burn my fingers,” stated Stéphanie Thétio, a 47-year-old vaping store supervisor at Bain-de-Bretagne in western France, stated on Monday.

Gilles Finchelstein, director of the Jean-Jaurès Basis, instructed AFP earlier than the primary spherical that the republican entrance “stays a motive”, however “to assume that to activate this lever will likely be sufficient by itself, is an phantasm. For Le Pen’s change of picture is a actuality”.

“I’m not positive that voters are extra fractured by Marine Le Pen than by Emmanuel Macron. Apart from what’s worrying in what’s occurred during the last two to a few weeks, is that there is been a reactivation of resentment in direction of Emmanuel Macron among the many left-wing voters.”

4. Macron’s reserve of additional votes might already be depleted

The primary spherical consequence noticed not a lot a division of votes among the many 12 presidential hopefuls, as an emergence of three candidates head and shoulders above the remaining.

In impact, they characterize the newly entrenched blocs in France’s new political panorama: Macron’s pro-European centrists, Le Pen’s nationalist insurgency, and Mélenchon’s exhausting left.

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The collapse of the standard centre-right and centre-left events suggests a big variety of supporters already switched their allegiance to Macron, maybe fearing Le Pen’s late surge. This in flip may imply that any reserve of additional help the president seemed to realize from that a part of the voters is perhaps depleted.

One other fear for Macron is that the nationalist wing of the Republicans could also be tempted to modify their vote additional to the fitting, reasonably than swing behind the president. “Personally, I can’t vote for Emmanuel Macron” within the run-off, stated Eric Ciotti, an MP from Good within the south and an early presidential candidate who was overtaken by Valérie Pécresse for the Republican nomination.

The president will definitely be hoping that voters will heed the calls of the a number of defeated candidates — together with Pécresse, Hidalgo and the Greens’ Yannick Jadot — to make use of their vote to again Macron and maintain Le Pen out.

The Nationwide Rally chief, alternatively, has been endorsed by her far-right rival, the defeated Eric Zemmour, regardless of their “disagreements”. “I can’t get the incorrect adversary,” he stated. “That is the explanation why I name on my supporters to vote for Marine Le Pen.”

5. Battle in Ukraine — and relations with Putin

Just a few days earlier than the first-round vote, Macron challenged Le Pen over her hyperlinks with Russia and her “indulgence in direction of Vladimir Putin”.

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February noticed a spike in help for Macron at residence as Europe reacted in horror to Moscow’s unprovoked aggression and the president held repeated calls with Putin. However the ballot increase turned out to be solely momentary, regardless of his nationalist rival’s beforehand avowed admiration for the Russian chief.

“In a fortnight, maybe it will likely be Marine Le Pen in entrance of Putin. After which what’s going to occur? They are going to remind one another of previous favours,” jeered one authorities minister.

In need of funds forward of the final election, the far-right chief’s then “Entrance Nationwide” seemed east and secured a mortgage of €9 million from a Russian financial institution that it’s nonetheless paying again. She additionally paid a go to to Moscow to satisfy Vladimir Putin on the Kremlin within the run-up to the 2017 election.

Le Pen’s social gathering was the one one in France to again Russia’s annexation of Crimea and it has known as for sanctions in opposition to Moscow to be lifted. Though she has condemned Putin’s invasion of the remainder of Ukraine as “incorrect”, the resolute, unqualified help for Ukraine proven by many within the West will not be shared by Le Pen’s followers celebrating her qualification in Paris on Sunday.

Bryan Pecquer, 21, a pupil in Angers in western France, stated it was “vital to talk to everybody” when “we choose diplomacy to battle”.

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Valentin Rebuffet, 24, from the Nationwide Rally-run city corridor at Bruay-la-Buissière in northern France, criticised as “ridiculous” any thought Le Pen was near Putin. “Her message is coherent. Tough to work on spending energy whereas being in favour of sanctions in opposition to Russia,” he added.

Le Pen largely escaped scrutiny over her stance on Russia and its battle on Ukraine earlier than the primary spherical. As he battles for his political survival, count on Emmanuel Macron to crank up the stress on that and plenty of different points over the following week and a half.

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The Apartment to Produce ‘Rosebushpruning,’ Starring Kristen Stewart, Josh O’Connor and Elle Fanning

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The Apartment to Produce ‘Rosebushpruning,’ Starring Kristen Stewart, Josh O’Connor and Elle Fanning

Fremantle’s The Apartment will partner with The Match Factory, Mubi, Kavac Film and Rai Cinema to produce Karim Aïnouz’s next feature film “Rosebushpruning.” 

Directed by Aïnouz, the film’s lead cast includes Kristen Stewart (“Love Lies Bleeding,” “Spencer”), Josh O’Connor (“Challengers,” “God’s Own Country”) and Elle Fanning (“Teen Spirit,” “The Great”). Aïnouz is directing from a script written by Efthimis Filippou (Kinds of Kindness, Dogtooth, The Lobster), which is an adaptation from Marco Bellocchio’s debut feature Fists in the Pocket. 

Viola Fügen and Michael Weber are producing “Rosebushpruning” for The Match Factory, who are also handling worldwide sales for the film. The adaptation rights have been acquired from Kavac Film also attached at the production team with Simone Gattoni. The Apartment, a Fremantle Company, is co-producing, with Annamaria Morelli as executive producer. Rachel Dargavel for Crybaby Films is co-producing in the UK. Mubi is financing production alongside Catherine Boily and Mitch Oliver’s Metafilms and Anna Films in association with Fremantle. Film und Medienstiftung NRW, Medienboard and the German Federal Film Board also funded the film.

“We are extremely happy to be part of this important film together with exceptional partners such as The Match Factory, MUBI, Kavac and Rai Cinema,” said Annamaria Morelli, CEO, The Apartment. “We deeply appreciate Karim Aïnouz’s films and are enthusiastic of the way he and Efthymis Filippou adapted Bellocchio’s masterpiece, revisited with a strikingly bold and original vision.”

Commenting on “Rosebushpruning,” Aïnouz said: “Marco Bellocchio’s astonishing debut, ‘Fists in the Pocket,’ was released over 50 years ago and had a huge impact on Italian cinema and storytelling at the time. I’m excited to be collaborating with Efthimis Filippou to revisit this iconic work to create a contemporary parable about the explosion of the traditional patriarchal family — which I hope will be touching and provocative in equal measure. It’s a dream come true to be working with such a dynamic ensemble of actors that I have long admired to bring this explosive adaptation to audiences today.”

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The film will begin production later this year.

Aïnouz is represented by Lark Management, CAA and Andre des Rochers.

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Thailand's new Senate selection process unfolds as candidates begin 'complicated' registration

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Thailand's new Senate selection process unfolds as candidates begin 'complicated' registration
  • Thailand has started the selection of new senators, marking the start of a contentious battle between progressives and conservatives.
  • Hopeful candidates registered at district offices nationwide, competing for one of the 200 seats in the upper house of Parliament.
  • The Senate, though less powerful than the House of Representatives, played a large role in blocking the formation of a new government.

Thailand on Monday officially began the selection of new senators, a process that has become part of an ongoing war between progressive forces hoping for democratic political reforms and conservatives seeking to keep the status quo.

Hopeful candidates headed to district offices across the country on the first day of registration to compete for one of the 200 seats in Parliament’s upper house.

The power of the Senate — although limited compared to the House of Representatives, which is tasked with law-making responsibilities — was demonstrated dramatically when it blocked the progressive party that won the most seats in last year’s election from forming a new government.

HUMAN RIGHTS GROUP URGES THAI GOVERNMENT TO HALT FORCED REPATRIATION OF POLITICAL DISSIDENTS

The senators were able to do so because of the 2017 Constitution, passed under a military government, which requires the prime minister to be approved by a joint vote of the elected House and the Senate, which was appointed by the military regime.

Potential candidates to become members of Thailand’s next Senate arrive at the Phaya Thai district office in Bangkok on May 20, 2024. Thailand on Monday officially began the selection of new senators, a process that has become part of an ongoing war between progressive forces hoping for democratic political reforms and conservatives seeking to keep the status quo. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

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The Move Forward Party was opposed by senators who disapproved of its vow to seek reforms of Thailand’s monarchy.

The process of selecting the new senators will include three rounds of voting: district, provincial and national.

Unlike the elected lower house legislators, the senators will be chosen by their fellow applicants, competing in 20 categories such as occupation or social position, including women, the elderly and the disabled.

THAI PRO-CANNABIS ADVOCATES RALLY AS GOVERNMENT MOVES TO RECRIMINALIZE

The final results are expected to be announced in July.

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The selection process in the Constitution is so complicated and unclear that critics say it was deliberately designed to discourage public participation. Critics say the Constitution also allows the state bureaucracy to hold more power than directly elected political officeholders.

The new senators will no longer be able to take part in selecting a prime minister but will retain the power to approve legislation passed by the House.

They also have the power to select members of nominally independent regulatory bodies such as the Election Commission and the Constitutional Court, whose work has been widely seen as impeding efforts at political reform and crippling proponents with legal penalties, including prison.

The Senate’s votes are also required to amend the Constitution. The governing Pheu Thai party is pushing for a new charter to replace the 2017 one to facilitate certain reform efforts promised during the campaign.

Civil society groups have campaigned to raise public awareness and encourage those favoring democratic reforms to enter the Senate selection process.

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Law reform advocate Yingcheep Atchanont of the group iLaw has been organizing public discussions on the importance of the Senate and workshops to help would-be applicants understand how the selection process works.

“We are telling people what to do if they want change. There have been calls in recent years to reduce the power of the Senate, to get rid of the Senate,” he said. “All of this can only happen if we can amend the Constitution, and we need enough votes from the senators for that.”

Candidates must be more than 40 years old and have more than 10 years of experience in their chosen occupational group, the latter provision not applying for those competing in one of the social identity groups. They also cannot campaign or do anything that can be interpreted as campaigning.

Even the Election Commission has acknowledged how complicated the process is but says it will be able to carry it out smoothly and transparently.

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Purawich Watanasukh, a political science lecturer at Bangkok’s Thammasat University, said he thinks the complicated rules were intentionally designed to reduce public participation.

“This is the contest of the people to debug not just the Senate itself, but the Constitution, which would lead to a new political landscape in Thailand,” he said, “”It will be the next battleground between the progressive movement and the establishment.”

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Panic in Bishkek: Why were Pakistani students attacked in Kyrgyzstan?

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Panic in Bishkek: Why were Pakistani students attacked in Kyrgyzstan?

Islamabad, Pakistan — More than 300 Pakistani students have rushed home from Kyrgyzstan after a mob attacked hostels occupied by international students, injuring several of them, in the Central Asian nation’s capital Bishkek last week.

The violence broke out in the late hours of May 17, lasting for more than six hours, when hundreds of Kyrgyz people targeted hostels of international students, leaving more than 30 injured.

In a news conference on Sunday, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said Kyrgyz authorities had assured that the situation had been brought under control. He confirmed that “four or five” Pakistani students were injured in the violence but refuted online rumours of any deaths in the clashes.

Yet, Dar appeared to acknowledge the fears of the more than 11,000 Pakistani students in Kyrgyzstan, and their families, announcing that the government was arranging flights to bring back all students who wanted to return. The government, he said, would bear the expenses — though Pakistani students in Bishkek claimed they had to pay out of pocket for tickets back.

So what led to the violence, what happened on May 17, and what is the situation in Bishkek now?

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What happened on the night of May 17?

Korish Malik, a 24-year-old Pakistani student pursuing a medical degree in Bishkek, recalled that he was in his hostel when, in the evening, student residents received a message from the hostel administration to stay indoors.

On May 17, a mob targeted a hostel in Bishkek where hundreds of international students resided [Courtesy of Bilal Ishaq]

“The administration said there appears to be a threat to international students and they must refrain from leaving the premises of their hostels. But then we saw on TikTok that a large group of locals was gathering and marching towards our hostel,” he told Al Jazeera from Bishkek.

According to Kyrgyz media reports, a crowd of more than 700 people gathered outside the city’s VIP Hostel, which houses more than 800 international students, including Pakistanis, Indians, Egyptians and Bangladeshis.

Bilal Ishaq, a Pakistani medical student from Faisalabad who lives in a private apartment near the VIP Hostel, said he also received alerts on WhatsApp groups of fellow university students and the Pakistani student community, asking students to stay indoors. He saw a crowd chanting slogans pass his building, moving towards the hostel. The WhatsApp groups, he said, were buzzing with messages from terrified students.

Back at the VIP Hostel, Korish said, soon after students received the warning, police officials arrived and cordoned off the front gate of the building. But the crowd, he said, was large — too large, it turned out.

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“While there were a lot of police officials there, they did not have any riot gear with them,” he said. “We were just asked to switch off lights, lock the doors, and put heavy objects in front of the doors of our room.”

Korish said the mob entered the hostel from the emergency exit at the back of the building and went on to indulge in vandalism.

Videos on social media show a huge number of people walking towards the hostel, hurling stones at the windows. Another video shows a door being broken, and glass shattered in the corridor of the hostel.

Korish said he and his three roommates hid in their room on the fourth floor of the five-storey building. They could hear loud noises from other floors, he said.

“The whole thing lasted for almost six to eight hours and when we eventually came out of the room, it was obvious that the mob was there to just cause chaos and spread terror,” Korish said.

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What triggered the attack?

The May 17 violence followed a brawl between Kyrgyz locals and a group of international students four days earlier.

Hassan Aryani, a Pakistani student pursuing his degree in medicine, said the videos of the fight went viral among students in the city. Aryani, from Mardan in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, said an “uneasy calm” hung over the student community in Bishkek after that clash.

On the night of May 17, that tension exploded in mob violence.

What were the international responses?

The embassies of India and Pakistan in Bishkek advised the students to stay indoors.

On the morning of May 18, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on X that he was “deeply concerned over the situation of Pakistani students in Bishkek”.

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Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar also wrote on the social media platform that he was monitoring events in Bishkek, urging Indian students to stay in contact with the country’s embassy.

The Kyrgyz government said on the morning of May 18 that calm had returned to the capital.

Pakistanis protest against the attacks on international students, including Pakistanis, in Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek last week. [Sohail Shahzad/EPA]
Pakistani students protest against the attacks in Bishkek [Sohail Shahzad/EPA]

How is the situation in Bishkek now?

Aryani, who is in his final year of college, said while Bishkek appears to be returning to a state of normalcy, he was not willing to stick around in the Kyrgyz capital at the moment.

He said he planned to get a ticket and fly back to Pakistan as soon as he could.

Korish, the third-year student, said he managed to step out of his hostel on Monday morning and could move around the city. But he also said he would travel back to Pakistan to allay his parents’ concerns.

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Meanwhile, Kyrgyz authorities also do not want to take chances.

Rasul Abazbek uulu, the country’s deputy minister for education and science, announced in a news conference on Monday that foreign students had been allowed to attend classes online for a week.

The latest announcement helped students like Korish make up their minds about the decision to return home.

“My family is naturally very worried about the situation. But now since our college has said that classes will take place online, and the semester was to end anyway at the end of May, I have bought a ticket to go back tomorrow,” Korish said.

While the Pakistani embassy in Kyrgyzstan says it is in close contact with the local authorities to facilitate the students, several students in Bishkek accused the government of abandoning them. Though Dar, Pakistan’s foreign minister, has said the government would bear the cost of transporting students back, the three students Al Jazeera spoke to all said they had to pay themselves for their tickets. It is unclear if the government plans to subsequently reimburse students.

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The Kyrgyz government said those involved in the violence had been arrested and it was in touch with different foreign governments whose nationals were affected by the incident.

“There are no seriously injured people among participants of the incident. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kyrgyz Republic did not receive any messages regarding injured foreign citizens. At the same time, the ministry urges representatives of the media and foreign diplomatic missions not to disseminate false and unverified information,” the Kyrgyz government said in a statement on May 18.

How many Pakistanis and Indians study in Kyrgyzstan and where?

More than 11,000 Pakistani students and 15,000 Indian students are pursuing degrees in medicine in Kyrgyzstan.

The attraction: a combination of reasonably high standards at Soviet-era medical colleges combined with tuition fees that are lower than most educational destinations in the West and even in their home countries. Kyrgyzstan medical colleges are also popular among students from several Arab and African nations.

Kyrgyz media reports that more than 700 people were part of the mob that attacked international students in Bishkek. [Courtesy Korish Malik]
Kyrgyz media reported that more than 700 people were part of the mob that attacked international students in Bishkek [Courtesy of Korish Malik]

Ishaq, the student from Faisalabad, said while his medical degree in Pakistan could cost him nearly eight to nine million rupees ($28,000 to $32,000), the corresponding amount in Kyrgyzstan was closer to four to five million rupees ($14,000 to $18,000).

“It was a lot more feasible to study here money-wise. But now, with the Pakistani currency devaluation, the cost for studies even here is increasing,” he added. The Pakistani rupee, which stood at 160 against the US dollar in December 2020, has since slipped by more than 70 percent to 278 rupees a dollar.

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