- Trump appears little concerned with treaty expiration
- Treaty expires on February 5
- Putin has offered to keep limits if US does
- China says it would not be ‘reasonable nor realistic’ to ask Beijing to join the treaty
World
How EU sanctions won't stop Putin getting six more years in power
President Vladimir Putin is all but guaranteed to win six more years of power in Russia’s upcoming elections. Opponents – many of them behind bars, exiled abroad, or dead – say EU officials must intensify their efforts to hit Moscow where it hurts.
Critics of Russian President Vladimir Putin say the EU must do more to help them crack the elite’s grip on power ahead of a presidential election so tightly controlled by the current Kremlin resident that it leaves no room for any opposition to his 25-year rule.
Despite EU efforts to sanction Russian authorities for their full-scale invasion of Ukraine and ongoing crackdown on dissent, the ballot will be held weeks after Moscow gained significant territory in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the ruling elite is getting richer, Russia has been selling oil for more than the price cap established by the G7, Moscow’s army is securing sanctioned military technology via allied countries, and the voice of Putin’s fiercest critic, Alexei Navalny, was forever silenced last month when he died in the penal colony he was held in.
Russia may be the most sanctioned country in the world, but “there were a lot of mistakes” in the restrictive measures implemented by Western allies, Russian politician and opposition leader Dmitry Gudkov told Euronews. Sanctions, he also said, have enefited Putin but are hurting ordinary Russians.
European officials are just now realising that “something went wrong,” he added.
Last month, a Moscow court barred Putin’s main challenger, Boris Nadezhdin, an opponent of the war in Ukraine, from running in the election.
Gudkov, the leader of the opposition Party of Changes, was exiled to Ukraine in 2021 after being detained— and released shortly after— for what he claims was a “fake” criminal case against him. A Moscow court issued in February an arrest warrant against him under charges of distributing “fake” information about Russia’s military. The former politician faces up to 10 years in prison.
For Russian dissidents, Putin’s illegitimacy should not be questioned: the Russian leader has been the subject since March 2023 of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes committed in Ukraine; the 2020 referendum that allowed him to run for two more six-year presidential terms was considered a sham by international observers; and these elections will be conducted in the illegally annexed territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia
How has the West failed to implement sanctions efficiently?
According to Rasa Juknevičienė, a Member of the European Parliament from Lithuania, the EU does not have an “effective structure” to implement sanctions against Russia due to the bloc’s lack of experience.
The 27-country Union rolled out its 13th package of sanctions against Russia last month to further restrict Moscow’s access to military technologies and prevent sanction circumvention.
But Western leaders, Juknevičienė added, are “afraid to punish Putin, to crush Putin’s regime, and provide all necessary support to Ukraine.”
Forbes announced last year that the overall wealth of Russia’s super-rich had increased by $152 billion (€139 billion) since 2022. It also counted 110 billionaires in Russia — 22 more than the previous year.
Speaking to EU foreign affairs ministers in February, Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, said that sanctions have not targeted Russia’s elite enough. She claims they have transferred their belongings to family and friends to avoid the seizure of their assets. “Putin’s friends are simply laughing at you,” Navalnaya said.
Since Ukraine’s full-scale invasion, Russia has been able to sell oil above the $60 per barrel price cap established by the G7 countries in December 2022, according to the Atlantic Council. The Kremlin is moving over 70 percent of its oil “through a shadow fleet,” it said.
A report by researchers from King’s College London found that Russia has been able to evade sanctions by importing banned products via friendly countries such as Georgia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
“We see how sanctions do not work, and this is obvious for the West,” Russian dissident Anastasia Shevchenko told Euronews. While she believes the concept of sanctions in general can be effective, Shevchenko argued allies have “a lot of work to do” for them to affect Putin.
How can the European Union help the Russian opposition?
Shevchenko was the first person in Russia to be criminally prosecuted under the Kremlin’s “undesirable organisations” law. While arrested, her eldest daughter, Alina, fell ill. Russian authorities allowed Anastasia to see her daughter only hours before she died.
For Shevchenko, one of the most important things European officials can do in the upcoming elections is to recognise Putin’s regime as illegitimate. “This is a crucial point for us,” Shevchenko told Euronews.
In the 2018 elections, countries such as the United States, Hungary, and Israel congratulated Putin for his reelection. France and Germany acknowledged his victory but refrained from using the word “congratulate.”
Dissidents also emphasise the need for Western support for Russians that have escaped the regime.
Dimitri Androssow, a Putin critic who currently lives in Berlin, told Euronews that some programmes and opportunities worldwide have been closed for Russians. One of them was an internship in the German Bundestag that changed his career 10 years ago but that was restricted to Russian nationals in the wake of the country’s assault on Ukraine two years ago.
“The West should concentrate on those who dare to show somehow that they are against this regime,” Androssow said. “This is our future. This is that democratic chance for our Russia. Those people who are against this regime and who are not afraid to speak about this.”
Androssow is a board member of Russia’s People’s Freedom Party. He left the country in 2022 due to political persecution.
For the now exiled Gudkov, EU officials should also include Russian dissidents in the policy-making of the sanctions. He claims he has presented some proposals to European colleagues, but they were not taken into consideration.
“Nobody knows Putin better than us. Nobody knows our country better than us. Nobody knows the elites and the civil society in Russia better than us,” Gudkov said. “But unfortunately, our expertise is not considered while some of the sanction policy is being carried out.”
Pushing for change from exile
In the meantime, opposition leaders are calling Russians to show up to the polls on 17 March at noon and write ‘Navalny’ or tear up their ballot as a form of protest. While this might not have a direct effect on the regime, the goal is to “affect the perception of these so-called elections,” Gudkov said. Domestically, it will undermine Putin’s legitimacy, he added.
“We want to demonstrate that a lot of people taking to the street and coming to the polling stations are against Putin and the war,” Gudkov said. “It’s the only safe format for people to demonstrate and express their position without being detained.”
Shevchenko said she already sees a change in Russian society. Images and videos from Navalny’s funeral this month showed hundreds queuing to pay their respects to the opposition leader despite threats of arrests from Russian police.
“When people see how many people like them are around, it helps get rid of fear,” Shevchenko said. “ I think it means that step by step, they stop being afraid.”
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World
‘If it expires, it expires,’ Trump tells NYT about US-Russia nuclear treaty
WASHINGTON, Jan 8 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would allow the last U.S.-Russia strategic arms control treaty to expire without accepting an offer from Moscow to voluntarily extend its caps on deployments of the world’s most powerful nuclear weapons, according to remarks released on Thursday.
“If it expires, it expires,” Trump said of the 2010 New START accord in an interview he gave to the New York Times on Wednesday. “We’ll just do a better agreement.”
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Arms control advocates fear the world’s two biggest nuclear powers will begin deploying strategic warheads beyond the pact’s limits after it expires on February 5, hastening an erosion of the global arms control regime.
“There are plenty of advocates in the Trump administration … for doing exactly that,” said Thomas Countryman, a former top State Department arms control official who chairs the board of the Arms Control Association advocacy group.
A White House spokesperson referred Reuters to Trump’s comments when asked if he will accept an offer made in September by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the sides to voluntarily maintain the limits on strategic nuclear weapons deployments after New START expires.
Trump said in July he would like to maintain the limits set out in the treaty after it expires.
The agreement limits the U.S. and Russia to deploying no more than 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery vehicles – missiles, bombers and submarines.
New START cannot be extended. As written, it allowed one extension and Putin and former U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to roll it over for five years in 2021.
Trump told the New York Times that China, which has the world’s fastest-growing strategic nuclear force, should be included in a treaty that replaces New START.
Beijing, seen by the U.S. as its main global rival, has spurned that proposal since Trump promoted it in his first administration, asserting the Russian and U.S. nuclear forces dwarf its arsenal.
“You probably want to get a couple of other players involved also,” Trump said.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington said it would be “neither reasonable nor realistic to ask China to join the nuclear disarmament negotiations with the U.S. and Russia.”
“China always keeps its nuclear strength at the minimum level required by national security, and never engages in arms race with anyone,” spokesperson Liu Pengyu said when reached for comment.
A Pentagon report last month said China is likely to have loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across its latest three silo fields and has no desire for arms control talks.
New START has been under serious strain since Moscow announced in February 2023 it was halting participation in procedures used to verify compliance with its terms, citing U.S. support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
The U.S. followed suit that June, suspending its participation in inspections and data exchanges, although both sides have continued observing the pact’s limits.
Reporting by Jonathan Landay and Jasper Ward in Washington; Editing by David Ljunggren, Rosalba O’Brien and Chris Reese
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
World
Venezuela teeters as guerrilla groups, cartels exploit Maduro power vacuum
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Venezuela is teetering on the edge after the U.S. capture and arrest of former President Nicolás Maduro, as armed militias, guerrilla groups and criminal networks threaten a path toward stability, according to reports.
As interim President Delcy Rodríguez assumes control, backed by President Trump’s administration, analysts have warned that the country is completely saturated with heavily armed groups capable of derailing any progress toward stability.
“All of the armed groups have the power to sabotage any type of transition just by the conditions of instability that they can create,” Andrei Serbin Pont, a military analyst and head of the Buenos Aires-based think tank Cries, told The Financial Times.
“There are parastate armed groups across the entirety of Venezuela’s territory,” he said.
MADURO ARREST SENDS ‘CLEAR MESSAGE’ TO DRUG CARTELS, ALLIES AND US RIVALS, RETIRED ADMIRAL SAYS
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who, according to the State Department, leads the Cartel de los Soles, beside members of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang in an apartment building in Aurora, Colorado. (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images; Edward Romero)
Experts say Rodríguez must keep the regime’s two most powerful hardliners onside: Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino.
“The focus is now on Diosdado Cabello,” Venezuelan military strategist José García told Reuters, “because he is the most ideological, violent and unpredictable element of the Venezuelan regime.”
“Delcy has to walk a tightrope,” said Phil Gunson, a Crisis Group analyst in Caracas.
“They are not in a position to deliver any kind of deal with Trump unless they can get the approval of the people with the guns, who are basically Padrino and Cabello.”
Since Maduro’s removal, government-aligned militias known as “colectivos” have been deployed across Caracas and other cities to enforce order and suppress dissent.
“The future is uncertain, the colectivos have weapons, the Colombian guerrilla is already here in Venezuela, so we don’t know what’s going to happen, time will tell,” Oswaldo, a 69-year-old shop owner, told The Telegraph.
WAS TRUMP’S MADURO OPERATION ILLEGAL? WHAT INTERNATIONAL LAW HAS TO SAY
Demonstrators critical of the government clash with the security forces of the state. After the last conflict-laden days, interim president Guaido, with the support of his supporters, wants to continue exerting pressure on head of state Maduro. (Rafael Hernandez/picture alliance/Getty Images)
As previously reported by Fox News Digital, armed motorcyclists and masked enforcers have erected checkpoints in the capital, searching civilians’ phones and vehicles for signs of opposition to the U.S. raid.
“That environment of instability plays into the hands of armed actors,” Serbin Pont added.
Outside the capital, guerrilla groups and organized crime syndicates are exploiting the power vacuum along Venezuela’s borders and in its resource-rich interior.
Guerrillas now operate along Venezuela’s 2,219-kilometer border with Colombia and control illegal mining near the Orinoco oil belt.
The National Liberation Army (ELN), a Colombian Marxist guerrilla group with thousands of fighters and designated a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, has operated in Venezuela as a paramilitary force.
FROM SANCTIONS TO SEIZURE: WHAT MADURO’S CAPTURE MEANS FOR VENEZUELA’S ECONOMY
Armed colectivos deploy across Venezuelan cities while guerrilla groups control borders following former President Nicolás Maduro’s capture. (Juancho Torres/Anadolu via Getty Image)
Elizabeth Dickson, Crisis Group’s deputy director for Latin America, said the ELN “in Venezuela … has essentially operated as a paramilitary force, aligned with the interests of the Maduro government up until now.”
Carlos Arturo Velandia, a former ELN commander, also told the Financial Times that if Venezuela’s power bloc fractures, the group would side with the most radical wing of Chavismo.
Colectivos also function as armed enforcers of political loyalty.
“We are the ones being called on to defend this revolutionary process radically, without hesitation — us colectivos are the fundamental tool to continue this fight,” said Luis Cortéz, commander of the Colectivo Catedral Combativa.
“We are always, and always will be, fighting and in the streets.”
Other armed actors include the Segunda Marquetalia, a splinter group of Colombia’s former FARC rebels. Both guerrilla groups work alongside local crime syndicates known as “sistemas,” which have ties to politicians.
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The Tren de Aragua cartel, designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S., has also expanded across Venezuela and into Colombia, Chile and the U.S.
As reported by Fox News Digital, an unsealed indictment alleges Maduro “participates in, perpetuates, and protects a culture of corruption” involving drug trafficking with groups including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, the ELN, FARC factions and Tren de Aragua, with most of the problematic groups named.
World
Trump says meeting Iran’s ‘Crown Prince’ Pahlavi would not be appropriate
US president signals he is not ready to back the Israel-aligned opposition figure to lead Iran in case of regime change.
United States President Donald Trump has ruled out meeting with Iran’s self-proclaimed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, suggesting that Washington is not ready to back a successor to the Iranian government, should it collapse.
On Thursday, Trump called Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah who was toppled by the Islamic revolution of 1979, a “nice person”. But Trump added that, as president, it would not be appropriate to meet with him.
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“I think that we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges,” Trump told The Hugh Hewitt Show podcast. “I’m not sure necessarily that it would be an appropriate thing to do.”
The US-based Pahlavi, who has close ties to Israel, leads the monarchist faction of the fragmented Iranian opposition.
Trump’s comments signal that the US has not backed Pahlavi’s offer to “lead [a] transition” in governance in Iran, should the current system collapse.
The Iranian government is grappling with protests across several parts of the country.
Iranian authorities cut off access to the internet on Thursday in an apparent move to suppress the protest movement as Pahlavi called for more demonstrations.
The US president had previously warned that he would intervene if the Iranian government targets protesters. He renewed that threat on Thursday.
“They’re doing very poorly. And I have let them know that if they start killing people – which they tend to do during their riots, they have lots of riots – if they do it, we’re going to hit them very hard,” Trump said.
Iranian protests started last month in response to a deepening economic crisis as the value of the local currency, the rial, plunged amid suffocating US sanctions.
The economy-focused demonstrations started sporadically across the country, but they quickly morphed into broader antigovernment protests and appear to be gaining momentum, leading to the internet blackout.
Pahlavi expressed gratitude to Trump and claimed that “millions of Iranians” protested on Thursday night.
“I want to thank the leader of the free world, President Trump, for reiterating his promise to hold the regime to account,” he wrote in a social media post.
“It is time for others, including European leaders, to follow his lead, break their silence, and act more decisively in support of the people of Iran.”
Last month, Trump also threatened to attack Iran again if it rebuilds its nuclear or missile programmes.
The US bombed Iran’s three main nuclear facilities in June as part of a war that Israel launched against the country without provocation.
On top of its economic and political crises, Iran has faced environmental hurdles, including severe water shortages, deepening its domestic unrest.
Iran has also been dealt major blows to its foreign policy as its network of allies has shrunk over the past two years.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was toppled by armed opposition forces in December 2024; Hezbollah was weakened by Israeli attacks; and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been abducted by the US.
But Iran’s leaders have continued to dismiss US threats. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on his defiant rhetoric after the US raid in Caracas on Saturday.
“We will not give in to the enemy,” Khamenei wrote in a social media post. “We will bring the enemy to its knees.”
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