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What the data tells us about kidnapped people — and how Nancy Guthrie is an outlier
Nancy Guthrie’s case has drawn wide attention, in part because of the unique circumstances of her disappearance. She’s seen here alongside other people who are listed on the FBI’s Kidnappings and Missing Persons page as of Thursday morning./FBI/ Screenshot by NPR
The abduction of Nancy Guthrie is putting a spotlight on the excruciating uncertainty endured by thousands of families whose loved ones go missing each year. Experts see parallels with those cases, even as many details in Guthrie’s case are unique, from the victim’s age to her celebrity daughter, Today show co-host Savannah Guthrie.
The circumstances of Guthrie’s disappearance are “quite shocking,” says Jesse Goliath, a forensic anthropologist at Mississippi State University.
“Usually you hear about smaller children, juveniles that go missing” and attracting national press, Goliath says. “But having an older woman who’s gone missing and having [a daughter] that you’ve seen on TV every day” is extraordinary, he adds.
More than 500,000 people were reported missing in the U.S. last year, according to the Justice Department. But Tara Kennedy, media representative for the Doe Network, a volunteer group working to identify missing and unidentified persons, says high-profile kidnappings are rare.
“I can’t remember the last time I heard about a ransom case besides Guthrie,” says Kennedy, who has worked with the Doe Network since 2014. “I always associate them with different periods in American history, like the Lindbergh kidnapping, not someone’s mother from the Today show.”
Both Kennedy and Goliath describe the Guthrie case as “strange.” Here’s a rundown of things it has in common with other missing-persons cases, and why it’s unusual:
Key details that are “unheard of”
From June 2020 to June 2025, women comprised more than 75% of the victims in the some 240,000 cases of kidnappings or abductions that were reported in the U.S., according to FBI crime data. But of those, only 646 women were in their 80s like Nancy Guthrie, who is 84, or less than .2% of all victims. Compare that to the age group that accounted for the largest number of victims that year: people 20-29, who made up just shy of 30% of victims.
Other highly unusual revelations have emerged as her disappearance has persisted: from purported ransom notes sent to media outlets demanding millions of dollars to unsettling images of a masked gunman approaching Guthrie’s front door on the night she disappeared.
Taken together, it’s like something out of a true crime novel, Goliath says: “That’s something unheard of.”
In missing-person cases, a quick response is crucial
TV shows have helped perpetuate a myth that families have to wait 24 hours before reporting a loved one as missing. But some shows and movies do get one thing right: The first 24 to 48 hours are critical to locating someone who has disappeared.
“Usually a lot of them are going to be [found] within 24 hours, especially the juvenile and young adult cases,” Goliath says.
In that early timeframe, eyewitness reports might be more useful; sniffer dogs will have a fresher scent to follow; and surveillance video and other electronic data is more likely to be intact and helpful.
“The longer the person is missing, the more difficult it becomes” to find them, Kennedy says, citing decades-old unresolved cases.
Then there’s the victim’s health. Whether the subject of a search operation wandered off and got lost, or was abducted or trafficked, Goliath notes that after 48 hours, their well-being could be compromised — by the elements, or by health issues such as Nancy Guthrie’s pacemaker and her need for daily medication.
“Sadly, if that person is not found within that first two days, their chances of survival drop exponentially,” Goliath says.
Who are the people who go missing in the U.S.?
At any given moment, about 100,000 people are considered missing in the U.S., according to Goliath and Kennedy. At the end of 2024, for instance, the National Crime Information Center — listed more than 93,000 active missing-persons cases in the U.S., while a total of 533,936 cases were entered into the federal tracking system that year.
Of those cases, more than 60% — or roughly 330,000 — involved juveniles, according to the NCIC database, which law enforcement agencies use to share criminal warrants, missing-person alerts, and other records.
Among people who are reported missing, Goliath says there is an “overrepresentation of Black and Indigenous populations who go missing, especially females, across the United States.”
In Mississippi, he adds, “Our highest demographic of missing [persons] is young Black females.”
Black Americans are also overrepresented in abductions. While members of the group make up less than 15% of the U.S. population, they account for more than 25% of the victims in reported abductions or kidnappings, according to the FBI’s data.
But a large number of missing-persons cases also go unreported, because some communities, such as people of color or those who don’t have documented status in the U.S., are less likely to engage with authorities. And Goliath notes that Indigenous people living on reservations might have limited access to law enforcement.
Another dynamic that skews public perception, Kennedy says, is “missing white woman syndrome,” when national media become fixated on a white woman who has disappeared.
“As someone who researches cold cases in terms of looking for information, the disparity of information out there, of cases for people of color is ridiculous,” she says.
Calling for action, easier ways to share data
Goliath says every missing-person case, not just Guthrie’s, needs to be widely broadcast and shared, to increase the chance of bringing someone home.
“We call this a silent crisis,” he says, “that there are people missing in the United States, throughout the country that really don’t have that same social media representation or a nationwide media representation for their cases.”
It’s also difficult to find standardized data for missing persons, due to a patchwork of rules and resources. It’s only mandatory for law enforcement agencies across the country to report missing persons cases to the federal government if they involve minors, for instance.
In addition to NCIC, missing persons data is collected by NamUs (the National Missing and Unidentified Persons System), which offers public access. But as of now, only 16 states require mandatory reporting to the NamUs clearinghouse for missing persons cases.
Goliath says he’d like to see a nationwide push for more states to adopt NamUs requirements. As NPR reported last year, a large portion of U.S. police agencies weren’t listed in the system.
“That’d be a help, because it’s already a system that exists,” Goliath says. “Law enforcement already is doing it. So, let’s just have all the states be able to use NamUs.”
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Thunderstorms, heat and wind will hamper efforts to contain Colorado wildfires
The Aspen Acres Fire burns on Friday in Rye, Colo.
Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images
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Thunderstorms with high winds on Sunday could hamper efforts to contain a massive wildfire that has scorched parts of southern Colorado.
The Aspen Acres Fire, which is burning south of Colorado Springs across Pueblo and Custer counties, has grown to more than 86,000 acres. It began nearly a week ago and is 13% contained, officials said on Sunday morning.

Authorities have ordered people to evacuate or to prepare to evacuate across counties including Custer, Pueblo, Huerfano and Fremont.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could hit south central and southwest Colorado on Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.
Officials and forecasters say the rain could be beneficial for firefighting but are concerned it could lead to road damage in burned areas and cause flash flooding.
“The main threats from storms will be gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph and lightning,” the NWS office in Pueblo said.
Red flag warnings and air quality alerts have also been issued across the state, with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment on Sunday warning residents to limit time outdoors because of heavy smoke.
Other wildfires are burning in the state, including the Ferris Fire in southwest Colorado that has grown to more than 42,000 acres and is 7% contained as of Sunday afternoon. The Gold Mountain Fire, which is also in the southwest portion of the state, has grown to more than 25,000 acres and is 0% contained as of Sunday.
A memorial service was held on Sunday for three firefighters who were killed battling wildfires on the Colorado-Utah border on June 27: Emily Barker, Sydney Watson and Nick Hutcherson.
The firefighters, along with two others, were involved in a “burnover incident,” which happens when firefighters are overtaken and have to shelter as best they can while a fire passes directly over them, according to the Department of Interior. Two firefighters survived and were treated for burns.
Colorado Gov. Jared Polis ordered flags to fly half-staff in honor of the deceased firefighters.

“These three brave heroes ran towards the flames, put themselves in harm’s way, and gave the ultimate sacrifice to protect Coloradans, our communities and our families,” Polis said in a social media post on Sunday.
Another fire across the border in southern Utah, the Babylon Fire, has grown to more than 90,000 acres and is O% contained as of Sunday afternoon. It is expected to be hot and dry through Monday, with very little humidity, officials said, making conditions challenging for containment.
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At least 25 people die in US as record heatwave scorches swaths of country
At least about two dozen people have died amid the perilous climate crisis-driven heatwave that has scorched swaths of the US with record temperatures.
As a huge heat dome sits over the county’s eastern half, extreme heat gripped millions of people in the days leading up to the US’s semiquincentennial on Saturday – and beyond it. More than 20 states experienced have reported stifling temperatures more than 100F (38C), marring celebrations. And more than 140 million people remained under active heat alerts across the US on Sunday.
Officials in New Jersey believe the extreme heat was a factor in the deaths of 22 people across 10 counties there, mostly in central and northern parts of the state. Many of the individuals were found in homes with no air conditioning, outside their residences, on the street and in parked cars, according to officials.
The first of those deaths occurred on Thursday, and the ages of the deceased in question mostly range from their mid-30s to their 80s. Preliminary findings cause investigators to believe the deaths are heat-related, though the chief state medical examiner for New Jersey would later determine the exact cause of death for each.
“This is not a typical summer heatwave,” the New Jersey department of public health said in a statement. “This type of heat can quickly become life-threatening to humans and to animals of all ages.”
The National Weather Service (NWS) has said cool air from the north in the coming days is going to lower some of the most extreme temperatures in the region, including New Jersey. The Fifa World Cup final is scheduled to be held in the New Jersey city of East Rutherford on 19 July.
Elsewhere, a heat-related death was reported in Cook county, Illinois, Natalia Derevyanny, a government spokesperson, told NBC News. The cause of that death was recorded as organic cardiovascular disease – with heat stress as a contributing factor.
Hinds county in Mississippi reported the death of 74-year-old Mitchell Ray Cooley due to heat exposure on Thursday, state officials said. Cooley had been reported missing, and his body was found the next day behind a gas station, the county coroner said in a statement.
“Mr Cooley suffered from a medical condition that impaired his judgment,” the coroner’s office said. “Based on the investigative findings, scene examination, and subsequent evaluation, the cause of death has been determined to be weather-related heat exposure. At this time, there is no indication of foul play.”
Meanwhile, on 27 June, Martha Irene Van Egmond, 83, died in Bolton, Mississippi, after falling in her garden. When her husband, Rick, tried to help her up, he fell too. The couple were unable to get up and spent hours in the heat.
Rick Van Egmond said he and his wife called out for help, and eventually two men from a nearby apartment complex came – but it was too late for Martha. She died surrounded by flowers, doing what she loved, he said to local news outlet WAPT.
Jeramiah Howard, Hinds county’s chief death investigator, attributed her death to the heat combined with her age, WAPT reported.
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As Donald Trump spoke during rain-dampened celebrations in Washington DC on Saturday, emergency services there had treated 51 people with heat-related issues as of 8pm ET, with 12 taken to nearby hospitals, according to local emergency response officials.
Other events scheduled for Saturday – including the Independence Day parade in DC – were cancelled amid the blistering heat. Among other weather-related disruptions, Trump’s so-called Great American State Fair on the National Mall also temporarily closed down on Friday after reports that 44 visitors had been treated for heat-related illnesses.
The worst of the heat started moving out of the US’s north-east and midwest regions by Sunday, shifting farther south into the mid-Atlantic and south-eastern parts of the country.
But scientists warn that heatwaves with extreme temperatures are indications that the world must lower the greenhouse gas pollution driving the global climate crisis.
The NWS is urging the public to avoid heat sickness by drinking plenty of fluids as well as staying out of the sun and in air-conditioned environments. Officials have also asked people to check on relatives and neighbors.
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Paul Pelosi in hit-and-run in California, car left with major damage, authorities say
Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and her husband Paul arrive at the funeral services for Clive Davis at Central Synagogue in New York, Monday, June 29, 2026.
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LOS ANGELES — The husband of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was involved in a hit-and-run in California that left a parked car with “major” damage authorities said Saturday, and he could face misdemeanor charges.
Paul Pelosi was driving his brown convertible Friday in Yountville, a town in the heart of wine country, when he struck a legally parked car on the side of the road, briefly stopped and then drove away, the Napa County Sheriff’s Office said in a statement. No injuries were reported.

A witness saw the collision and called 911. Shortly afterward sheriff’s deputies found Pelosi with damage to the front of his car on a road roughly a quarter of a mile away. He reportedly told officers he knew he hit something but was not sure when or what caused the damage.
Pelosi, 86, did not have any alcohol in his system, according to the statement. The sheriff’s office referred him to the Department of Motor Vehicles for a process to determine whether he may continue to drive — something that officials say is common for older drivers.
Pelosi was not arrested, and because no one was injured, the sheriff’s office recommended a misdemeanor charge for fleeing the scene of an accident.
A staffer for Nancy Pelosi did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.
Paul Pelosi pleaded guilty in 2022 to misdemeanor charges of driving under the influence in Napa County and was sentenced to five days in jail and three years of probation. However, he served only two days in jail and received good conduct credit for two other days, leaving just one day to serve in a work program at the courthouse.
As part of his probation, Pelosi was required to attend a three-month drinking driver class and install an ignition interlock device, which forces drivers to provide a breath sample to prove sobriety before the engine will start. He also was ordered to pay about $5,000 in victim restitution for medical bills and lost wages, along with nearly $2,000 in fines.
That same year he was attacked and severely beaten with a hammer at the couple’s San Francisco home.
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