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What the data tells us about kidnapped people — and how Nancy Guthrie is an outlier

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What the data tells us about kidnapped people — and how Nancy Guthrie is an outlier

Nancy Guthrie’s case has drawn wide attention, in part because of the unique circumstances of her disappearance. She’s seen here alongside other people who are listed on the FBI’s Kidnappings and Missing Persons page as of Thursday morning./FBI/ Screenshot by NPR

The abduction of Nancy Guthrie is putting a spotlight on the excruciating uncertainty endured by thousands of families whose loved ones go missing each year. Experts see parallels with those cases, even as many details in Guthrie’s case are unique, from the victim’s age to her celebrity daughter, Today show co-host Savannah Guthrie.

The circumstances of Guthrie’s disappearance are “quite shocking,” says Jesse Goliath, a forensic anthropologist at Mississippi State University.

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“Usually you hear about smaller children, juveniles that go missing” and attracting national press, Goliath says. “But having an older woman who’s gone missing and having [a daughter] that you’ve seen on TV every day” is extraordinary, he adds.

More than 500,000 people were reported missing in the U.S. last year, according to the Justice Department. But Tara Kennedy, media representative for the Doe Network, a volunteer group working to identify missing and unidentified persons, says high-profile kidnappings are rare.

“I can’t remember the last time I heard about a ransom case besides Guthrie,” says Kennedy, who has worked with the Doe Network since 2014. “I always associate them with different periods in American history, like the Lindbergh kidnapping, not someone’s mother from the Today show.”

Both Kennedy and Goliath describe the Guthrie case as “strange.” Here’s a rundown of things it has in common with other missing-persons cases, and why it’s unusual:

Key details that are “unheard of”

From June 2020 to June 2025, women comprised more than 75% of the victims in the some 240,000 cases of kidnappings or abductions that were reported in the U.S., according to FBI crime data. But of those, only 646 women were in their 80s like Nancy Guthrie, who is 84, or less than .2% of all victims. Compare that to the age group that accounted for the largest number of victims that year: people 20-29, who made up just shy of 30% of victims.

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Other highly unusual revelations have emerged as her disappearance has persisted: from purported ransom notes sent to media outlets demanding millions of dollars to unsettling images of a masked gunman approaching Guthrie’s front door on the night she disappeared.

Taken together, it’s like something out of a true crime novel, Goliath says: “That’s something unheard of.”

In missing-person cases, a quick response is crucial

TV shows have helped perpetuate a myth that families have to wait 24 hours before reporting a loved one as missing. But some shows and movies do get one thing right: The first 24 to 48 hours are critical to locating someone who has disappeared.

“Usually a lot of them are going to be [found] within 24 hours, especially the juvenile and young adult cases,” Goliath says.

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In that early timeframe, eyewitness reports might be more useful; sniffer dogs will have a fresher scent to follow; and surveillance video and other electronic data is more likely to be intact and helpful.

“The longer the person is missing, the more difficult it becomes” to find them, Kennedy says, citing decades-old unresolved cases.

Then there’s the victim’s health. Whether the subject of a search operation wandered off and got lost, or was abducted or trafficked, Goliath notes that after 48 hours, their well-being could be compromised — by the elements, or by health issues such as Nancy Guthrie’s pacemaker and her need for daily medication.

Sadly, if that person is not found within that first two days, their chances of survival drop exponentially,” Goliath says.

Who are the people who go missing in the U.S.?

At any given moment, about 100,000 people are considered missing in the U.S., according to Goliath and Kennedy. At the end of 2024, for instance, the National Crime Information Center — listed more than 93,000 active missing-persons cases in the U.S., while a total of 533,936 cases were entered into the federal tracking system that year.

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Of those cases, more than 60% — or roughly 330,000 — involved juveniles, according to the NCIC database, which law enforcement agencies use to share criminal warrants, missing-person alerts, and other records.

Among people who are reported missing, Goliath says there is an “overrepresentation of Black and Indigenous populations who go missing, especially females, across the United States.”

In Mississippi, he adds, “Our highest demographic of missing [persons] is young Black females.”

Black Americans are also overrepresented in abductions. While members of the group make up less than 15% of the U.S. population, they account for more than 25% of the victims in reported abductions or kidnappings, according to the FBI’s data.

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But a large number of missing-persons cases also go unreported, because some communities, such as people of color or those who don’t have documented status in the U.S., are less likely to engage with authorities. And Goliath notes that Indigenous people living on reservations might have limited access to law enforcement.

Another dynamic that skews public perception, Kennedy says, is “missing white woman syndrome,” when national media become fixated on a white woman who has disappeared.

“As someone who researches cold cases in terms of looking for information, the disparity of information out there, of cases for people of color is ridiculous,” she says.

Calling for action, easier ways to share data

Goliath says every missing-person case, not just Guthrie’s, needs to be widely broadcast and shared, to increase the chance of bringing someone home.

“We call this a silent crisis,” he says, “that there are people missing in the United States, throughout the country that really don’t have that same social media representation or a nationwide media representation for their cases.”

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It’s also difficult to find standardized data for missing persons, due to a patchwork of rules and resources. It’s only mandatory for law enforcement agencies across the country to report missing persons cases to the federal government if they involve minors, for instance.

In addition to NCIC, missing persons data is collected by NamUs (the National Missing and Unidentified Persons System), which offers public access. But as of now, only 16 states require mandatory reporting to the NamUs clearinghouse for missing persons cases.

Goliath says he’d like to see a nationwide push for more states to adopt NamUs requirements. As NPR reported last year, a large portion of U.S. police agencies weren’t listed in the system.

“That’d be a help, because it’s already a system that exists,” Goliath says. “Law enforcement already is doing it. So, let’s just have all the states be able to use NamUs.”

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Map: 5.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes off the Coast of California

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Map: 5.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes off the Coast of California

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Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Pacific time. The New York Times

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A moderately strong, 5.1-magnitude earthquake struck in the North Pacific Ocean on Wednesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 5:45 a.m. Pacific time about 40 miles west of Petrolia, Calif., data from the agency shows.

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As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Aftershocks detected

Subsequent quakes have been reported in the same area. Such temblors are typically aftershocks caused by minor adjustments along the portion of a fault that slipped at the time of the initial earthquake.

Quakes and aftershocks within 100 miles

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Aftershocks can occur days, weeks or even years after the first earthquake. These events can be of equal or larger magnitude to the initial earthquake, and they can continue to affect already damaged locations.

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When quakes and aftershocks occurred

 All times are Pacific time. The New York Times

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Sources: United States Geological Survey (epicenter, aftershocks, shake intensity); LandScan via Oak Ridge National Laboratory (population density) | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Wednesday, June 3 at 6:03 a.m. Pacific time. Aftershocks data is as of Wednesday, June 3 at 8:01 a.m. Pacific time.

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California’s primary for governor is undecided as candidates vie to be in the top two

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California’s primary for governor is undecided as candidates vie to be in the top two

Xavier Becerra, Democratic gubernatorial candidate for California, and Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate for California, shake hands while arriving for a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco in April.

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SAN FRANCISCO — The primary election for California governor is too close to call, with vote counting continuing Wednesday. Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican business executive Steve Hilton lead the field with Democrat Tom Steyer in third place.

In California’s unusual primary system, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot open to any registered voter. The top two candidates then move on to the general election, even if they’re from the same party. This year, voters had 60 names for governor to choose from.

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The winner will lead the country’s most populous state, where leaders often take on national political prominence. Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom is at his two-term limit and could be a Democratic contender for president.

Becerra, former Health and Human Services secretary under President Joe Biden, pitched himself to voters as an experienced political leader who isn’t afraid of President Trump, but his lead caps one of the most surprising and dramatic comebacks in recent state political history. As recently as April, polls were showing Becerra — also a former member of Congress and California attorney general — languishing in single digits in a crowded field.

In his remarks at his watch party in Los Angeles, Becerra noted his underdog status.

“Here in Hollywood’s hometown, we love a good underdog success story,” he said, drawing parallels between his campaign and his immigrant parents’ success story in California. “Guess what? The underdog stayed in the fight. Like my parents, I never gave up. Never stopped putting one foot in front of the other. Never stopped believing in the beacon-like goodness of California. And thankfully, neither did you.”

Hilton is a former Fox News commentator who also served as a political adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron. He was endorsed by President Trump in April, helping him to pull ahead of Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the other major Republican in the race. Hilton has campaigned on the idea that California needs change after 16 years under total Democratic control.

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The race is narrowing down after a tumultuous campaign

At his watch party in Huntington Beach, the British-born candidate — who became an American citizen five years ago — said it was the “honor of his lifetime” to receive over 1 million votes so far.

“Change is coming to California and it’s long overdue,” Hilton said. “We’re not there yet, but it’s looking good. It looks very much as if Californians really will have the chance to vote for change in November and take our state in a new direction.”

Democratic billionaire activist Steyer spent more than $213 million of his own money to boost his candidacy and push a progressive, populist message. While he was trailing Becerra and Hilton on Tuesday night, he said at his watch party in San Francisco that he remains confident he can close the gap in the days ahead.

“Together, we’ve scared the hell out of the corporate interests used to getting their way,” Steyer said. “It might take some time to figure out where this is going. We’re going to wait until every ballot is counted. We’re gonna give democracy a time to work. And we know we finished really strong.”

The early results are not certain to hold, in part because of unusual voting patterns in this primary election: Ballot-tracking data heading into Tuesday evening showed that Republicans were more likely to vote early by mail, while Democratic voters in this deep-blue state held onto their mail-in ballots or chose to vote in person. That’s the reverse of recent elections, which saw more Democrats voting by mail and Republicans tending to vote in person on Election Day.

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The uncertainty on election night capped a race that remained crowded and unsettled to the end. To some extent, the race was defined by who wasn’t running.

Some of the state’s most high-profile Democrats — former Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla and California Attorney General Rob Bonta — all passed on a potential bid to succeed Newsom.

The race was disrupted in April when then-U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell’s campaign for governor imploded amid allegations of sexual assault and harassment. Swalwell resigned from Congress shortly after the accusations surfaced and has denied assault allegations.

Swalwell had been gaining in polls and racking up high-profile endorsements, and his exit seemed to primarily benefit Becerra, who had been stuck in single digits in many polls. Ultimately, it quieted fears among Democrats who worried that the messy Democratic field could result in Bianco and Hilton winning the top spots in the June primary.

Marisa Lagos covers California politics at KQED and co-hosts the Political Breakdown show and podcast.

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Supreme Court reinstates Republican-favored Alabama congressional districts

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Supreme Court reinstates Republican-favored Alabama congressional districts

The U.S. Supreme Court

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The Supreme Court on Tuesday cleared the way for Alabama to use a congressional district map favored by Republicans.

The court, in an unsigned order, overturned a three-judge district court panel that found that the map is “tainted by intentional race-based discrimination.” The court’s three liberals publicly dissented.

The ruling means that Alabama’s 2026 midterm elections will feature six Republican-leaning districts and one Democratic-leaning one, as opposed to a map with only five safe Republican seats. Democrat Shomari Figures, who represents Alabama’s Second District, will likely lose his seat as a result of the high court’s ruling.

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The story of Alabama’s congressional map is long and tortured. It began in 2021, when the state implemented a new map to account for population changes in the census. The map featured only one majority-black district out of seven, even though the state is more than one-quarter Black.

Voters immediately sued, claiming the map illegally diluted minority votes in violation of the Voting Rights Act and the Constitution. Lower court judges agreed, ruling that the state must draw a map with two districts where Black voters have a realistic chance of electing their candidate of choice. The Supreme Court more than once has ordered Alabama to draw a compliant map.

But the state has refused and instead continued to litigate the case. On Tuesday, that tactic paid off.

What changed? In April, the Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority all but gutted what remains of the Voting Rights Act, ruling that states cannot purposefully draw districts that are majority-minority.

Alabama then asked the high court to reinstate the state’s old map, under the theory that this new ruling meant that it was permissible to use a map with only one majority-Black district. In an unsigned, unexplained order in May, the high court essentially reversed its previous opinions, and allowed Alabama to use the old map for the upcoming midterm elections.

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This set off a flurry of activity in Alabama. By the time the Supreme Court issued its May order, absentee balloting had already begun, using the court-drawn map. So Republican Governor Kay Ivey cancelled elections and scheduled a special primary for August for the affected congressional races.

The case, however, was not over.

In its ruling, the Supreme Court had ordered a lower court panel to continue evaluating Alabama’s map in light of its recent Voting Rights Act decision. And just 15 days after that order, the panel, composed of three Republican judges—two of them Trump appointees—concluded unanimously that even under the Supreme Court’s new standards, the plan for a single black district was “intentionally discriminatory.”

So, once again, Alabama returned to the Supreme Court, arguing that the map was partisan, not racially discriminatory. In short, that the Republican legislature simply drew the map to elect more Republicans. And that under the Supreme Court’s new interpretation of the Voting Rights Act, the GOP map should be allowed to stand.

The court’s conservative agreed, writing that the lower court “did not heed the presumption of legislative good faith.”

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The court’s three liberals publicly dissented, castigating the conservative majority for failing to abide by its 2006 decision in the case of Purcell v. Gonzalez. That decision declared that courts should not change election rules too close to an election.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor, in her dissent, said the court “debases the democratic process” and “corrodes the rule of law by rewarding Alabama’s gamesmanship and outright defiance of court orders.”

Tuesday’s decision is the latest in a series of Supreme Court rulings that could well reshape the 2026 midterm elections, making it much harder for Democrats to prevail.

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