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Explained: Why the EU-Mercosur trade deal could be ratified this year

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Explained: Why the EU-Mercosur trade deal could be ratified this year

Greater than 20 years after negotiations began, the European Union and Mercosur may lastly ratify their commerce deal this 12 months.

Hope that the long-delayed deal may progress was renewed after the election in Brazil of leftist president Lula da Silva, who took workplace on 1 January and this week acquired German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Brasilia.

Each leaders endorsed rushing up the ratification of the deal at press conferences.

Negotiations between the 2 blocs — Mercosur contains Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay — began in 2000 and have been concluded in June 2019. 

However the EU decried the “assault” on the Amazon rainforest below the management in Brazil of right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro, whose administration allowed deforestation of the rainforest for mining and agricultural actions at 3 times the speed noticed greater than a decade in the past.

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“I do not assume a deal would have been attainable with former President Bolsonaro. Now he’s gone and there’s a new authorities, so it will likely be simpler,” German MEP Anna Cavazzini (Greens), who’s the vice-chair of the delegation for relations with Brazil, mentioned.

“Nonetheless, many of the members of the European Parliament have made it clear that they need binding and enforceable sustainability standards, they need the settlement to not contribute to deforestation and so they need some ensures,” the lawmaker burdened in an interview with Euronews.

Commerce offers on the EU’s agenda

Now Lula da Silva is advocating for a extra sustainable financial improvement mannequin, together with within the Amazon forest, typically described because the lung of the planet. Scholz mentioned that Germany will once more contribute to the Worldwide Amazon Fund (created in 2006 by Lula da Silva), with a brand new disbursement of €35 million.

On the EU facet, 2023 additionally presents a beneficial setting nearer ties, Udi Dadush, a non-resident fellow on the Bruegel assume tank and creator of the in-depth evaluation “The EU-Mercosur Free Commerce Settlement: prospects and dangers”, mentioned. 

“The present Swedish presidency of the EU could be very pro-trade, and the approaching Spanish presidency (within the second half of the 12 months) may even be very supportive of the settlement due to the historic ties with the three Spanish-speaking international locations, with Brazil being Portuguese talking,”  the analyst instructed Euronews.

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However even with this new strategy to biodiversity conservation and the combat towards local weather change in Brazil, the EU-Mercosur settlement has lengthy been overshadowed by criticism from political and financial teams, and will entail extra joint protocols.

By eliminating bilateral tariffs, the 2 sides ought to acquire extra export capability to a mixed market of 780 million folks, however some sectors are delicate, particularly agriculture, and specifically the meat sector  — beef and poultry is not going to be totally liberalised, as an illustration.

“Actually, some agricultural exports from Mercosur international locations will enhance and this poses a menace to agriculture in Europe, which is already below plenty of stress. Many of those offers have to be checked out sector by sector, and we have to stability these completely different pursuits. We have to design commerce agreements in a greater manner, in order that they profit as many teams as attainable,” MEP Cavazzini mentioned.

The shadow of China

In recent times, China has turn into Mercosur’s largest buying and selling associate and Lula da Silva needs to debate the situations for a commerce settlement with Beijing throughout his go to to the nation in March. 

The EU subsequently must step up dialogue with Mercosur and is eager to spice up imports of mineral assets which might be essential for the so-called inexperienced industrial revolution and the place China has a dominant place. 

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“One of many results of the battle in Ukraine and the pandemic has been to make everybody rather more delicate to the safety of provide strains and the supply of supplies of every kind,” defined Udi Dadush.

“If you happen to can cement that relationship, make it safer, that is a part of guaranteeing diversification and safety of provide for Europe. The identical, by the best way, can be for Latin America,” the analyst added.

The free commerce settlement is without doubt one of the two components of the worldwide Affiliation Settlement between the EU and Mercosur. The second pillar is a political settlement, which was closed in June 2020. As soon as the ultimate model of the treaty is closed and translated into all EU languages, the textual content will be submitted to the European Parliament. 

Solely after that, ratification by all EU member states (and Mercosur states) will begin so it will possibly come into pressure. Because the earlier commerce agreements with Canada, Japan and others powers, that is thought-about a milestone if the EU needs to implement the Inexperienced Deal and shield multilateralism.

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The Dow just crossed 40,000 for the first time. The number is big but means little for your 401(k)

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The Dow just crossed 40,000 for the first time. The number is big but means little for your 401(k)

NEW YORK (AP) — The Dow Jones Industrial Average just topped 40,000 for the first time, the latest pop in what’s been a surprisingly good year for Wall Street.

But just like New Year’s represents an arbitrary point in time in the Earth’s revolution around the sun, such milestones for the Dow don’t mean that much inherently.

For one, with just 30 companies, the Dow represents a tiny slice of Corporate America. For another, almost no one’s 401(k) account sees its performance depend on the Dow, which has become more of a relic used for historical comparisons.

Here’s a look at what the Dow is, how it got here and how its use among investors is on the wane:

WHAT IS THE DOW?

It’s a measure of 30 established, well-known companies. These stocks are sometimes known as “blue chips,” which are supposed to be on the steadier and safer side of Wall Street.

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WHAT’S IN THE DOW?

Not just industrial companies like Caterpillar and Honeywell, despite the name.

The roster has changed many times since the Dow began in 1896 as the U.S. economy has transformed. Out, for example, was Standard Rope & Twine, and in recently have been big technology companies.

Apple, Intel and Microsoft are some of the newer-economy names currently in the Dow. The financial industry also has a healthy representation with American Express, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Travelers. So does health care with Amgen, Johnson & Johnson, Merck and UnitedHealth Group.

WHAT’S ALL THE HUBBUB NOW?

The Dow just crossed its latest 10,000 point threshold to top 40,000 briefly in midday trading on Thursday. It took about three and a half years to make the leap from 30,000 points, which it first crossed in November 2020.

It’s kept chugging mostly higher despite the worst inflation in decades, painfully high interest rates meant to get inflation under control and worries that high rates would make a recession inevitable for the U.S. economy.

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Companies are now in the midst of reporting their best profit growth in nearly two years, and the economy has managed to avoid a recession, at least so far.

IS THE DOW THE MAIN MEASURE OF WALL STREET?

No. The Dow represents only a narrow slice of the economy. Professional investors tend to look at broader measures of the market, such as the S&P 500 index, which has nearly 17 times the number of companies within it.

More than $11.2 trillion in investments were benchmarked to the S&P 500 at the end of 2019, according to estimates from S&P Dow Jones Indices. That’s 350 times more than the $32 billion benchmarked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Investors’ 401(k) accounts are much more likely to include an S&P 500 index fund than anything tied to the Dow. The S&P 500 crossed above its own milestone Wednesday, topping 5,300 points for the first time.

That’s what more investors care about. Well, 100-point milestones matter for the S&P 500 as little as others, but the fact that the S&P 500 is higher than ever matters a lot.

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HOW DIFFERENT ARE THE DOW AND THE S&P 500?

Their performances have historically tracked relatively closely with each other, but the S&P 500 has been better recently. Its 29.3% rise for the last 12 months easily tops the 21.1% gain for the Dow.

That’s in part because the S&P 500 has more of an emphasis on Big Tech stocks, which were responsible for most of the S&P 500’s gains last year. Hopes for an easing of interest rates by the Federal Reserve and a frenzy around artificial-intelligence technology have pushed them to dizzying heights.

The Dow reflects none of the movements of such marquee stocks as Alphabet, Meta Platforms or Nvidia.

IS THAT IT?

No, the Dow and S&P 500 also take different approaches to measuring how an index should move.

The Dow gives more weight to stocks with higher price tags. That means stocks that add or subtract more dollars to their stock price push and pull it the most, such as UnitedHealth Group and its $523 stock price. A 1% move for that stock, which is about $5, packs a radically harder punch than a 1% move for Walmart, which is about 63 cents

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The S&P 500, meanwhile, gives more weight to stocks depending on their overall size. That means a 1% move for Walmart carries more weight than a 1% move for UnitedHealth Group because Walmart is a slightly bigger company by total market value.

SO WHY CARE ABOUT THE DOW?

Because it’s so old, it has a longer track record than other measures of the market.

For a while, a triple-digit move for the Dow also offered an easy shorthand way to show the stock market was having a big day. Now, though, it means much less. A 100 point swing for the Dow means a move of less than 0.3%.

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Russian metals tycoon says US Treasury sanctions against him are 'balderdash'

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Russian metals tycoon says US Treasury sanctions against him are 'balderdash'

Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska dismissed the latest U.S. sanctions on a series of companies that the U.S. Treasury said were connected to a scheme to evade sanctions and unlock frozen shares as nonsense.

“This balderdash isn’t worth the time,” Deripaska said by message via a spokesperson in response to a Reuters request for comment about the latest U.S. sanctions.

“While the horrific war in Europe claims hundreds of thousands of lives every year, politicians continue to engage in their dirty games. I strongly believe that we need to do everything we can to establish peace, not serve the interests of warmongers,” he said.

NEW US SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA TARGET WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT, BAN URANIUM IMPORTS FOR NUCLEAR POWER

The U.S. Treasury on Tuesday announced it had sanctioned a web of Russian companies it said were being used to disguise ownership of a $1.6 billion industrial stake controlled by Deripaska.

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Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska is seen at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on June 17, 2022. (Reuters/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo)

Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International was planning to buy the stake and dropped the transaction following mounting U.S. pressure to abort the bid.

In its sanctions announcement, the U.S. Treasury alleged it was an “attempted sanctions evasion scheme” to unfreeze a stake using “an opaque and complex supposed divestment.”

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Deripaska has been sanctioned by Britain for his alleged ties to Putin. He has mounted a legal challenge against the sanctions which he says are based on false information and ride roughshod over the basic principles of law and justice.

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Deripaska, who made his fortune by buying up stakes in aluminum factories, has also been subjected to sanctions by the United States, which in 2018 took measures against him and other influential Russians.

Those sanctions were “groundless, ridiculous and absurd”, Deripaska has previously said.

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German police investigate AfD member Petr Bystron for money-laundering

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German police investigate AfD member Petr Bystron for money-laundering
This article was originally published in French

The Munich public prosecutor’s office is conducting an investigation into Petr Bystron, a prominent figure on the German far-right party’s list for the European elections.

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Petr Bysrton is under investigation for money-laundering activities, according to the Munich public prosecutor’s office. 

Bystron is facing allegations that he received up to €20,000 from individuals linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin to spread Kremlin propaganda. 

He is the second candidate on the AfD’s election list for theEuropean elections.  

The prosecutor’s office said searches are being carried out in Berlin, Bavaria and on the Spanish island of Mayorque in pursuit of evidence.

The German parliament voted to lift Bystron’s parliamentary immunity, enabling the police to conduct their searches.

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11 public prosecutors and nearly 60 Bavarian police officers have been mobilised, the Munich public prosecutor’s office said.

In response, the chairmen of the AfD parliamentary group in the German Bundestag, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, issued a statement saying: “The AfD parliamentary group therefore hopes that the investigation will be completed quickly so that there is no suspicion that authorities and public prosecutors are trying to influence the European election campaign.”

The accusations mark a fresh blow against the AfD party, which is currently under scrutiny over allegations that it has links to China and Russia. 

Fellow AfD member Maximilian Krah’s assistant is under investigation for allegedly spying for China.

Krah himself is under initial investigation by prosecutors in Dresden over allegations of accepting payments from Russia and China during his time as an MEP.

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