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One Area Where Biden Is Leading Trump: His Number of Donors

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One Area Where Biden Is Leading Trump: His Number of Donors

President Biden may be struggling in national polls, but he recently overtook former President Donald J. Trump in at least one important measure: the total number of donors who have given to his campaign, which is often seen as a proxy for voter engagement.

Where each candidate has more donors or
fewer donors compared with 2020, by county

Across most of the country, Mr. Trump has fewer donors than he did at the same time in 2020, while Mr. Biden has more.

Detailed maps of where people have donated to the Trump and Biden campaigns in 2024 and in 2020 show that Mr. Biden is overperforming and that Mr. Trump is underperforming in many of the battleground states they will need to win, in comparison with where they were at this point in the 2020 cycle.

As of the end of March, Mr. Biden had 1.1 million unique individual donors, compared with one million for Mr. Trump. The difference is apparent in their total fund-raising hauls: Mr. Biden’s campaign committee has taken in nearly $160 million so far in this election cycle, compared with Mr. Trump’s $114 million.

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The rematch between the two candidates offers an unusual opportunity for comparison. A New York Times analysis of data on individual donors from filings with the Federal Election Commission shows that Mr. Trump had fewer individual donors at the end of March than he did at the same time in 2020, while Mr. Biden had more than he did in 2020.

Note: Lines show the total number of unique individual donors who gave to either Trump or Biden by the date of their first donation.

The New York Times

Mr. Biden’s robust fund-raising is in stark contrast to his weakness in the polls. New surveys from The Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer show him trailing Mr. Trump in several crucial battleground states, as Mr. Biden’s popularity has eroded among young people and voters of color.

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The two candidates’ positions have reversed since March 2020, when Mr. Trump was running for re-election and Mr. Biden was closing in on his party’s nomination.

Mr. Biden was a late-breaking favorite in the 2020 primary race, having lagged for months in the polls behind his Democratic rivals. He became the party’s presumptive nominee on April 8, after the withdrawal of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

This year, Mr. Trump was long the prohibitive favorite in the Republican primary race, but did not become the presumptive nominee until early March, when his last opponent, Nikki Haley, bowed out of the contest.

The changing circumstances between March 2020 and this year are also apparent outside of battleground states, when total donors to both candidates are compared with the previous cycle.

In Delaware, Mr. Biden has roughly twice as many donors as Mr. Trump, an analysis of contributions by ZIP codes shows. But compared with March 2020, he has lost ground to Mr. Trump – which makes sense, because Mr. Biden’s home state was the early donor engine of his primary campaign in 2019 and early 2020.

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Where each candidate has more donors or
fewer donors compared with 2020, by ZIP code

In New York City, Mr. Biden had a slight rise in donors relative to March 2020, while his number of donors in Manhattan has fallen steeply. The shift likely reflects his late emergence at the time as the party’s nominee. Mr. Trump has picked up donor support just outside the city on Long Island, which has been trending toward the Republican Party.

Where each candidate has more donors or
fewer donors compared with 2020, by ZIP code

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In Arizona, which is a battleground state in 2024, Mr. Biden has picked up donors. He won the state in 2020 but trails Mr. Trump in 2024 polls there.

On close inspection, a few ZIP codes stand out. At the end of March 2020, Mr. Biden had about 150 donors in the ZIP code 86001, which makes up part of Flagstaff. This year, he had almost 300. Mr. Trump’s donors there declined to about 130 from about 150. Many ZIP codes around Tucson, Phoenix and Scottsdale also had an increase in Biden donors.

In neighboring Nevada, Mr. Trump has generally drawn more donors in the Las Vegas area than he did in 2020. The Times’s latest polls found that Mr. Biden’s support in that state had dropped from 2020.

Where each candidate has more donors or
fewer donors compared with 2020, by ZIP code

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In Michigan, Mr. Biden had about 11 percent more donors than in 2020, driven by gains around Ann Arbor and in more traditionally conservative western parts of the state. But Mr. Biden did not gain donors in Dearborn, which has more residents with Middle Eastern ancestry or in Detroit, which is majority Black. Mr. Trump’s number of donors in the state fell by 8 percent, mostly because of dips in the Detroit suburbs and near Grand Rapids.

The latest Times/Siena polls show Mr. Trump leading among registered voters in Michigan, another battleground state.

North Carolina and South Carolina

Where each candidate has more donors or
fewer donors compared with 2020, by ZIP code

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The shifts in North Carolina and South Carolina are another illustration of how circumstances have changed for the two candidates. In South Carolina, Mr. Biden has lost donors compared with where he was in 2020, which makes sense: In 2020, the state had a competitive Democratic primary, which Mr. Biden won, setting off his march to the nomination. This year, it was Mr. Trump who had the competitive primary in South Carolina.

In North Carolina, a battleground state, Mr. Biden has gained donors relative to Mr. Trump since 2020. This could be welcome news for Democrats, who see the state as potentially winnable for Mr. Biden, after Mr. Trump won it narrowly in 2020.

Donors in battleground states in the 2024 cycle

Notes: Bars show the estimated number of individual donors who have given to each candidate in each state as of March 31. Numbers are estimates because of potential duplicate names or changes of address within the data.

The New York Times

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Methodology

Data includes donations reported to the Federal Election Commission by the Trump 2020 campaign, the Trump 2024 campaign, Trump Make America Great Again Committee, the Trump Victory joint fund-raising committee, Trump Save America Joint Fundraising Committee, Trump 47 Committee, Trump National Committee JFC, the Biden campaign, the Biden Victory Fund joint fund-raising committee and the Biden Action Fund joint fund-raising committee. Additional donations processed on behalf of those committees and reported by the online fund-raising platforms ActBlue and WinRed are also included.

The estimated number of individual donors was determined based on a unique combination of contributor name, state and ZIP code. Donors with invalid addresses were filtered out of the analysis. Dates of first donation were determined by the earliest contribution date for a unique individual donor to a 2020 or 2024 committee affiliated with either candidate.

Donations are counted through March 31 starting from the earliest announcement by one of the two candidates each cycle: April 25, 2019, for Mr. Biden in the 2020 cycle and November 15, 2022, for Mr. Trump in the 2024 cycle.

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Areas where the number of donors changed by five or fewer are not shown.

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Kevin McCarthy's ghost is haunting House GOPs' next big legislative fight

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Kevin McCarthy's ghost is haunting House GOPs' next big legislative fight

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He has been out of Congress for nearly half a year, but the shadow of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., is still looming large over the House of Representatives as lawmakers get ready for another intense government funding fight.

Last year, McCarthy agreed to suspend the U.S. debt limit through January 2025 in exchange for federal spending caps for the next two fiscal years, a deal he struck with President Biden called the Fiscal Responsibility Act. Under its terms, discretionary government funding can only grow by 1% in fiscal year 2025.

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House appropriators are now wrestling with how to navigate that cap without severely impacting Homeland Security and Defense spending. Fiscal conservatives want negotiators to stick to the statutory cap, which is roughly $1.606 trillion. Defense hawks, meanwhile, are concerned about the effects of a meager increase and worry it could amount to a spending cut on national security when accounting for inflation.

“That was a deal that McCarthy made, right? He’s not here anymore. But our hands might still, legally, be tied to it,” one GOP lawmaker told Fox News Digital. 

WHY MEMBERS OF CONGRESS DECIDE THEY ‘GOTTA GET OUT OF THIS PLACE’

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy may have left Congress, but his deal with President Biden is still playing a decisive role in the latest government funding talks. (Photo by Aaron Schwartz/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

“I understand what the intent of the FRA was, but… the caps as written prevent us from effectively keeping pace with China. So, whatever is needed between leadership, the Senate and the president to allow us a little more maneuvering space in terms of the allocations between the federal agencies and the 12 bills, I think is necessary.”

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Republican Study Committee Chairman Kevin Hern, R-Okla., conceded that “sure” the caps constrained negotiators but urged them to work toward it as written.

“Honestly, I’m having a difficult time figuring out why it’s so hard for us to establish the numbers. I mean, it was agreed to a two-year cap. You know, $1.606 trillion is the number, but it’s like everybody’s struggling to figure out what it really is,” Hern said.

He noted that fiscal year 2024’s government funding level was “a little bit higher” than the agreed-upon $1.59 trillion, thanks to “some sidebar deals that all of us found out about afterwards.”

“But this cap is $1.606, and with no backroom cigar smoke-filled room deals. So we’ll see where my colleague Congressman Cole comes up with the appropriations,” Hern said.

NATIONAL SECURITY HAWKS WARN CONGRESS THROWING PENTAGON ‘UNDER THE BUS’ WITH ‘INADEQUATE’ SPENDING BUMP

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Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) arrives to a caucus meeting with House Republicans on Capitol Hill

House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole said the Fiscal Responsibility Act is “the law” when asked if it constrained him. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

When asked about whether he felt constrained by the FRA, House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole, R-Okla., told Fox News Digital, “I mean, that’s the law, so we’re going to mark it up to what the law tells us to mark up to.”

Rep. Jake Ellzey, R-Texas, a member of the Appropriations Committee, similarly said, “We’re doing the best we can, it’s the law of the land. So you do what you can with what you’ve got — if frogs had wings, they’d be a lot more successful on not hitting their rear end when they jump.”

He also suggested that there would be certain hurdles brought by the FRA. “Based on the FRA, most of those bills are going to take a shave except for Defense and Homeland. And of course, even with the increase for those two, it’s a net decrease because of inflation, so real dollars are still getting cut no matter which spending bill you’re talking about,” Ellzey said.

“Chairman Cole has already made some good, hard, strategic decisions…so we’ve got some clear pictures of where we’re going, and we’re going to be far more aggressive on getting those bills done on time this year.”

Indeed, House GOP leaders are eyeing an ambitious schedule to get all 12 individual spending bills that fund the U.S. government passed well before the Sept. 30 deadline at the end of the fiscal year.

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SENATE PASSES MAMMOTH $1.2T SPENDING PACKAGE AFTER BRIEF PARTIAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

Rep. Jake Ellzey

Rep. Jake Ellzey conceded that appropriators were constrained somewhat but expressed confidence in Rep. Tom Cole’s leadership. (Getty Images)

Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., outlined a legislative calendar that would have them passed before Congress embarks on a monthlong August recess during a closed-door House GOP conference meeting earlier this week, a source familiar with his comments told Fox News Digital.

Last year’s government funding fight was marked by chaos and disagreements within the House GOP as members on the right of the conference pushed leaders to leverage a government shutdown in exchange for deeper spending cuts, while other Republicans sounded the alarm on the economic and political ramifications a shutdown would have.

The fight over funding the government in fiscal year 2024 was among the factors that led to McCarthy’s historic ouster last October.

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Fox News Digital reached out to a representative for the former speaker for comment.

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Newsom turns to suburban moms to bankroll Arizona abortion plan

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Newsom turns to suburban moms to bankroll Arizona abortion plan

Staring down a state budget deficit, Gov. Gavin Newsom needed money fast to fund his latest ambition for California.

So he turned to an influential voting bloc with a knack for fundraising: suburban moms from the Midwest.

The Democratic governor Thursday signed into law a bill that temporarily allows Arizona abortion providers to practice in California in order to help cope with an influx of patients crossing the state border in the two years since the Supreme Court ended nationwide abortion rights.

As soon as Newsom unveiled it last month, Red Wine & Blue — an organization headquartered in Ohio and dedicated to engaging suburban women in progressive causes — rushed to bankroll the initiative with the launch of the Arizona Freedom Trust. Participants nationwide have so far raised more than $100,000 for the cause, enough to help more than 200 Arizonans get abortions in California, they estimate. Their goal is half a million dollars.

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“This is our biggest, most direct effort to help women impacted by abortion bans,” Red Wine & Blue founder Katie Paris says in a video as she sits in front of her children’s watercolor paintings inside her home in Shaker Heights, Ohio.

“Creating the types of communities that we want to live in means reaching out with our hands and our hearts to our neighbors. When we come together to care for and support each other, we are unstoppable.”

Since Newsom announced the initiative, abortion concerns have somewhat settled in Arizona: Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs signed a bill that repeals an April court decision that reinstated a law from 1864 that would have banned most abortions in the state. Arizona Atty. Gen. Kris Mayes, a Democrat, has warned that abortion access in the state remains “in flux” as the repeal can’t go into effect yet.

The Arizona Supreme Court ruling was what prompted Newsom’s bill, but his office said it will serve as “a critical backstop” regardless of what happens, as California abortion providers have reported a surge in patients since abortion access was rolled back in 2022, including Arizonans. Even without the Civil War-era law, Arizona limits abortions at 15 weeks of pregnancy and makes no exceptions for rape or incest. California generally allows abortions until 24 weeks.

“To Arizona people of child-bearing age, and those who love and support them, we have your back, at least until you get the chance to reverse this attack on your rights on the Arizona ballot this November,” Assemblymember Cecilia Aguiar-Curry (D-Winters), an author of SB 233, said Tuesday after the bill cleared the Senate floor.

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Newsom’s decision to lean on a grassroots organization headquartered 2,400 miles from Sacramento is telling of the political power of suburban women — and the governor’s gaze beyond California.

It’s not the first time Newsom has gone after other state’s abortion policies as he works to get President Biden reelected and raises his own national profile. Last month, he launched TV ads in Alabama, slamming the state for banning abortion. He also signed a law last year that allows doctors in states where abortion is banned to receive training in California.

This time, he’s embarking on a project that allows him to forge inroads with residents of critical swing states. The approach also allows Newsom to advance a new initiative without dipping into California’s budget, as he makes tough decisions about how to close the state’s massive budget deficit.

Newsom spokesperson Omar Rodriguez said the newest legislation is about “stepping up to help others” and that Red Wine & Blue is equipped to “mobilize suburban women and others across the country who are impacted or deeply concerned by other states’ regressive policies.”

Though white suburban women were among the voters who helped elect Republican Donald Trump in 2016, that same demographic shifted to help elect Biden in 2020.

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Now, both Biden and Trump are vying for suburban voters — and the future of abortion access is key. A recent Wall Street Journal poll of battleground states including Pennsylvania and Georgia found that 39% of suburban women consider abortion issues critical to their vote and that most believe Trump’s positions are too restrictive.

Sara Sadhwani, a professor of politics at Pomona College who specializes in voting behavior and interest groups, said suburban women are increasingly influential at the polls. She pointed to research that shows the suburbs are becoming more racially diverse and that more women are going to college. Polling has shown that voters with degrees are more likely to lean Democrat.

“The suburbs are changing. Suburban women in particular are becoming incredibly more diverse, and that has real political implications,” Sadhwani said. “We certainly have far more women today who are educated, who are outspoken. The feminist movements have had an incredible effect on female voters … there were so many stories about how suburban women would listen to who their husbands wanted them to vote for, whereas today we know women are very independent-minded and make those choices for themselves.”

The governor’s national reach on abortion has been criticized by Republicans who say he should pay more attention to California, which is grappling with homelessness and the cost of living. Republicans on the California Senate floor this week questioned the need for the Arizona bill.

“Abortion is already free and ubiquitous in California,” the California Catholic Conference, which opposes SB 233, said in a statement.

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In Arizona, Republicans are already working to thwart a campaign to put the question of abortion rights to voters on a ballot measure, as California did with Proposition 1 in 2022.

Arizona Rep. Rachel Jones, a Republican who voted to keep the more restrictive abortion ban in place, said she was “disgusted” by Hobbs’ reversal. “Life is one of the tenets of our Republican platform. To see people go back on that value is egregious to me,” she said.

Paris, the Ohio activist tapped by Newsom, founded Red Wine & Blue after the 2018 midterm elections in an effort to help Democrats build power, a reflection of female voters who were both appalled and inspired to become involved after Trump’s presidency.

Since then, the organization has expanded to states including North Carolina and Michigan and taken on Republican-backed issues such as book bans and LGBTQ+ school debates, in addition to reproductive rights.

“Suburban women have kind of gotten tired of other people speaking for us, and we want to speak for ourselves,” Paris said. “We do not all look alike, think alike or drive matching minivans. Our lives are more complicated than that. And we are pretty tired of pundits and politicians telling us what we need.”

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The U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn abortion rights pushed more women into action, Paris said. She watched as hundreds of thousands of women across the country shared their own abortion stories and political fears and frustrations in a massive private Facebook page run by Red Wine & Blue.

“We don’t care what’s in the wine glass,” Paris said, referring to her organization’s name. “The important part is that when women get together, we get s— done.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Senator blasts federal parks officials for reportedly barring American flags in beloved national park

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Senator blasts federal parks officials for reportedly barring American flags in beloved national park

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Officials at Alaska’s famed Denali National Park are taking heat after allegedly telling construction crews at the park not to fly the American flag.

Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, penned a letter to National Park Service Director Charles Sams demanding an explanation for the alleged actions of officials at Denali National Park, noting that the alleged demand for the bridge construction crew to remove the flag was made on the “eve of Memorial Day weekend.”

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The claim appears to have originated in a report by the Alaska Watchman, a local conservative news outlet that cited an anonymous construction worker at the park. Fox News Digital has been unable to independently verify the details of the report, but a National Parks Service official disputed the account.

ALITO SAYS WIFE DISPLAYED UPSIDE-DOWN FLAG AFTER ARGUMENT WITH INSULTING NEIGHBOR

This view shows Denali, formerly known as Mount McKinley, in Denali National Park, Alaska. (Lance King/Getty Images/File)

In his letter, Sullivan said that one of the construction vehicles involved in the project had a 3-by-5 foot American flag affixed to it, but for “reasons that remain unclear, someone at the National Park Service (NPS) caused the construction crew to remove the American flag.”

“This is an outrage – particularly in the lead-up to our most solemn national holiday, Memorial Day, a time when Americans come together to honor those that gave their lives in service to our nation, while wearing our country’s flag,” Sullivan wrote. “The American flag, especially on Memorial Day weekend, should be celebrated, not censored by federal government employees.”

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The Alaska senator noted that he could find no regulations that would prohibit the flying of American flags on public land, arguing that such a regulation would be odd given that the purpose of national parks is for “the enjoyment of American citizens.”

Dan Sullivan

Sen. Dan Sullivan (Brandon Bell/Pool/Getty Images/File)

ANTISEMITIC RIOT AT COLUMBIA REACHES BOILING POINT AS AGITATORS TAKE OVER ACADEMIC BUILDING, BARRICADE DOORS

Sullivan concluded by demanding that Sams investigate the incident and take steps to “ensure an incident like this does not happen again in American national parks.”

DENALI, ALASKA - SEPTEMBER 17: A landscape is seen on September 17, 2019 near Denali, Alaska. Permafrost which is found to some extent beneath nearly 85 percent of Alaska has been melting due to earths rising temperatures. Reports indicate that as the permafrost melts, it releases carbon dioxide which adds to the greenhouse gas effect that continues to warm the planet. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

This view shows the landscape near Denali, Alaska, on Sept. 17, 2019. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

A National Park Service spokesperson told Fox Digital the incident never happened.

“Reports that a National Park Service (NPS) official ordered the removal of an American flag from a Denali bridge construction worker’s vehicle at Denali National Park are false,” said Peter Christian in a statement. “At no time did an NPS official seek to ban the American flag from the project site or associated vehicles.”

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The flag is flown throughout the park, and the NPS doesn’t have any authority over contractors, he said. 

“The NPS neither administers the bridge project contract, nor has the authority to enforce terms or policies related to the contract or contractors performing the work,” Christian said. “The American flag can be seen at various locations within Denali National Park – at park facilities and campsites, on public and private vehicles, and at employee residences – and we welcome its display this Memorial Day weekend and every day.”

The incident also sparked an apparent protest from Alaska residents, who organized a “patriotic convoy with flags” from Fairbanks to Denali National Park on Sunday. The protest, which was organized on Facebook, had 23 confirmed participants and more than 100 interested as of Sunday morning.

EDITOR’S NOTE: This story has been updated with comment from the National Park Service.

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