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EU warns of 'serious consequences' as Bosnian Serbs mark breakaway day

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EU warns of 'serious consequences' as Bosnian Serbs mark breakaway day

Brussels has sounded the alarm over celebrations planned in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s post-war Serb region, the Republika Srpska, to mark its breakaway anniversary.

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The so-called ‘Republika Srpska Day’ celebrates the region’s 1992 claim of independence from Bosnia during the breakup of Yugoslavia, which led to a bloody interethnic war that claimed 100,000 lives.

The commemoration, which coincides with a religious Orthodox holiday, has been deemed unconstitutional by Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Constitutional Court because it discriminates against non-Serbs.

Tuesday’s events come amid increasing tensions as Republika Srpska’s President Milorad Dodik, widely seen as a Kremlin ally, ratchets up secessionist threats, prompting international concern. Dodik has vowed to “declare full independence” of Bosnia’s Serb-controlled regions should Western democracies attempt to intervene in the country’s shared, multi-ethnic institutions.

The European Commission reaffirmed on Tuesday the bloc’s long-standing opposition to any act that undermines the Balkan country’s territorial integrity.

“When it comes to the legality of the ‘Republika Srpska Day,’ the Constitutional Court of the country already ruled twice in 2015 and 2019 that the legislation in Republika Srpska about the ‘Republika Srpska Day’ is not in line with the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” said Peter Stano, spokesperson for foreign affairs.

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“The European Union has always emphasised that the sovereignty, territorial integrity, constitutional order and international personality of Bosnia-Herzegovina need to be maintained,” Stano added.

“Any action against these principles will lead to serious consequences.”

On the eve of the celebrations, the United States flew F16 fighter jets above Bosnia and Herzegovina in a show of support. Its embassy in Sarajevo also called for an investigation into the celebrations and said it would “not hesitate” to act in response to acts that violate the 1995 US-brokered peace deal.

Breakaway threats spark concerns

Republika Srpska, whose 1.2 million population is made up mostly of Orthodox Christian Serbs, is one of the two entities of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The second entity, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is made up of mostly Bosniaks and Croats.

Both entities were formed under the 1995 Dayton Agreement, which brought the three-year Bosnian war to an end and split the country into two entities along ethnic and religious lines.

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The country’s stability and intricate power-sharing arrangements, the result of Western democracy building, are considered precarious and have recently been threatened by President Dodik’s intensified separatist rhetoric. 

Adnan Ćerimagić, a senior analyst at the think tank European Stability Initiative, told Euronews that although Dodik’s warnings have not changed in substance over recent months, their increased intensity, combined with a fast-changing geopolitical environment, now merit international attention.

“While the idea of dividing Bosnia-Herzegovina into three mono-ethnic territories is not new, what is new is that Dodik has support not just from Belgrade in Serbia (…) but also from the outside,” Ćerimagić explained.

“It’s the support that comes from certain EU and NATO members like Hungary,” he added. “Just today, the Prime Minister of Hungary, a NATO and EU member, Viktor Orbán has been decorated as part of the celebrations of the Day of Republika Srpska.”

Region’s future in the balance

Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić has also lent his support to the controversial cause, promising synchronised fireworks would take place in the Serbian capital of Belgrade on Tuesday evening in a sign of its support for Republika Srpska’s holiday celebrations.

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The spat over the commemoration comes less than a month after the international observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) found that thousands of ethnic-Serb voters had been bused in from Bosnia and Herzegovina to cast their ballots illegally in the recent Serbian elections.

“We tend to think that this alliance between Vučić and Dodik is, is natural and is explicit, but I would say that it is not,” Berta López Domènech, a policy analyst on the Western Balkans for the European Policy Centre, explained.

“Vučić has used this card of not explicitly supporting Republika Srpska’s secession because he knows that this would be a red line in his relations with Western partners, such as the EU.”

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But Ćerimagić believes Belgrade could see its ability to rein in a potential escalation of tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina as a “bargaining chip” in dialogue with Western partners as they scrutinise the recent results of December’s parliamentary elections, which were marred by allegations of electoral fraud.

Bosnia and Herzegovina has been an official candidate for EU accession since December 2022. However, the opening of accession talks has been stalled by deeply entrenched ethnic divisions and delays in constitutional, judicial and electoral reforms.

EU leaders said in December that the bloc would open accession talks with the country “once the necessary degree of compliance with the membership criteria is achieved.” 

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But both experts fear Dodik and the Republika Srpska ruling coalition’s increasingly defiant stance could have implications for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s EU membership bid.

“It’s clear that for some member states, a condition to start accession talks (with Bosnia and Herzegovina) is actually to see some of the steps that the ruling coalition in Republika Srpska and Milorad Dodik have done in the past couple of years to be reversed,” Ćerimagić said.

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“That means that Milorad Dodik and the ruling coalition in Republika Srpska have a sort of a veto on that EU path,” he added.

Meanwhile, López Domènech warned that “marking a day that celebrates a genocide is clearly not in line with the European Union’s priorities.”

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Investors brace for a bigger backlash from Middle East war

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Investors brace for a bigger backlash from Middle East war
From being just a fringe risk, conflict in the Middle East has become a top worry for investors unsettled by the prospect of a power struggle in Iran and a protracted regional war, with ramifications for everything from global trade to inflation.
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Tel Aviv analyst shelters from 30 missile sirens in 48 hours, says Iran ‘won’t recover’

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Tel Aviv analyst shelters from 30 missile sirens in 48 hours, says Iran ‘won’t recover’

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The past 48 hours in Tel Aviv have been unlike anything seen before, a leading security analyst has said, as sirens blared amid missile threats following Operation Epic Fury and U.S.-Israeli strikes in Iran.

“We are facing a biblical event — nothing less,” Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, told Fox News Digital, speaking from his shelter in the city.

Like many Israelis, Michael said he had spent hours in reinforced rooms during the ongoing barrage, adding that he was “very experienced in this.”

“But this all requires time and determination, and I do hope that Trump will also have them both,” he said, speaking shortly after the president released a video message stating that the military operation would continue “until all of our objectives are achieved.”

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Explosions from projectile interceptions by Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system over Tel Aviv. (JACK GUEZ / AFP via Getty Images)

“Trump is the only one who can make the change — and that change will impact the entire region and the international order for years to come,” Michael added.

As of Sunday, Tel Aviv remained under a state of emergency following Iranian missile attacks that caused casualties and widespread damage.

According to The Associated Press, Iranian missile and drone strikes have killed approximately 11 Israeli civilians and wounded dozens more in retaliation for the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran.

Shrapnel from missile impacts damaged at least 40 buildings in Tel Aviv, and authorities reported at least one death in the area from falling debris.

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The Philippine Embassy in Israel confirmed the death of a Filipino national after a missile strike hit Tel Aviv on Saturday.

TOMAHAWKS, B-2 STEALTH BOMBERS AND ATTACK DRONES POUND OVER 1,000 IRANIAN TARGETS IN 24-HOUR BLITZ

People take shelter as Iran launched missiles and drones towards Israel following the US-Israeli attacks. ( Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images)

“We enter our shelter once the siren is heard and stay there until the Home Front Command announces that we can leave,” Michael said.

“Usually, it is about 20 to 30 minutes — unless there are further sirens during our stay. Since yesterday morning, it has happened around 30 times.”

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Israel’s President Isaac Herzog also visited an impact site in Tel Aviv Sunday, delivering a message of resilience.

“The people of Israel and the people of Iran can live in peace. The region can live in peace. But what undermines peace time and again is terror instigated by this Iranian regime,” Herzog said.

EXILED IRANIAN CROWN PRINCE SAYS US STRIKES MARK ‘BEGINNING OF THE VERY END’ FOR REGIME

Israeli emergency service officer walks past building debris at the scene of a Iranian missile attack. (Ahmad GHARABLI / AFP via Getty Images)

Following the reported killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and roughly 40 senior Iranian officials, Iran formed a provisional leadership council.

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Iran named Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, President Masoud Pezeshkian and Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i to lead roles.

“The Supreme Leader did not complete the necessary groundwork regarding his own succession,” Michael added.

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“Pezeshkian will face very troubling challenges due to their heavy losses, severe disruptions to control and command systems, and the massive bombing and attacks across Iran, including Tehran,” he said.

“Even if this regime doesn’t collapse, it will never be able to reconstitute itself, recover or return to its previous position,” Michael added.

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Israel FM says Europe too divided, slams Spanish PM

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Israel FM says Europe too divided, slams Spanish PM

Israeli minister Gideon Sa’ar said Europe “does not have unified position” on what role it should play in Iran as European ministers sought to establish a joint approach Sunday.

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As Israel and the United States conducted a joint military strike on Iran, leading to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Europe was kept on the sidelines.

EU member states did not participate in the operation and, in some cases, they were not informed prior as it is customary among strategic allies.

Asked whether Israel sought to keep Europe on the margins, Sa’ar said internal divisions within EU member states had kept them out of critical exchanges of operational details, unlike the United States, which the minister described as his country’s greatest ally.

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“In Europe, you have all kinds of approaches,” he told Euronews. “You have countries like the Czech Republic which is strongly supporting this operation and then you have Spain, which is standing with all the tyrants of the world.”

On Saturday, Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez was among the most critical voices in Europe, suggesting the US-Israeli strikes on Iran risk plunging the region into total war.

“We reject the unilateral military action of the United States and Israel, which represents an escalation and contributes to a more uncertain and hostile international order,” Sánchez said Saturday. The Spanish PM reiterated that message on Sunday.

“We urge for de-escalation and call to respect international law in all conflicts,” Sánchez added. “You can be against a heinous regime, like the Iranian regime, while also rejecting a military intervention that is unjustified, dangerous and outside of international law.”

Sa’aar said Israel considers the operation “fully justified” citing the right to self-defense from a regime that “has called for the destruction of Israel” and lashed at the Spanish prime minister for sending an “anti-Israeli, anti-American message.”

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“Read the statement, they are standing with Iran!” he added.

When asked if any of his European counterparts had manifested an interest in joining the military operation or provide support on the ground, Sa’ar said he held multiple exchanges with European ministers over the weekend and suggested that “if others want to join, they will know have to convey the message.”

On Sunday, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appeared to back regime change in Iran in line with Israel and the US, saying that the “risk of further escalation is real. This is why a credible transition in Iran is urgently needed” in comments on Sunday.

Sa’ar told Euronews said the strategic strikes and the elimination of Khamenei alongside top regime commanders could “create the conditions to weaken the regime enough to allow the Iranians to take their future into their own hands”.

“The future leadership of Iran should be determined by the Iranian people through free elections. Our only requirement is that whoever comes to power in Iran must not pursue the destruction of Israel,” he said.

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Watch the full interview on Euronews from 8pm CET

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