World
China seeks to ‘wear down Taiwan’s reliance’ with covert economic and cyber operations, US wargamers say
KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN – Over the next few years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will continue to target democratic, self-ruled Taiwan with “gray zone” tactics and an “anaconda” strategy—slow-strangulation efforts that seek to force Taipei to bow to Beijing without drastic measures such as an invasion.
Experts say China will escalate its efforts to disrupt the island’s economy by targeting critical industries and infrastructure and scale-up covert cyberwar operations that provide Beijing with just enough cover to maintain plausible deniability.
A recent U.S. wargame team from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a nonpartisan research institute, visited Taiwan in early August to hold the first-ever tabletop exercise focusing on economic and cybercoercion from China against Taiwan. The FDD team pointed out that the cost of launching a cyberattack, for example, is significantly lower than the cost of defending against it. This asymmetry allows China to exert considerable pressure on Taiwan without triggering a direct U.S. military response.
TAIWAN REACTS TO TRUMP’S THEY ‘SHOULD PAY US FOR DEFENSE’ COMMENTS
Black Hawk helicopters prepare to land at Taoyuan International Airport as part of the annual Han Kuang military exercise in Taoyuan, Taiwan, in July 2023. (Reuters/Ann Wang)
Local experts agree that Taiwan has its work cut out for it in defending against cyberwarfare and disinformation campaigns, especially at a time when artifical intelligence is making “truth” much harder to define.
A trailer for a soon-to-be-released Taiwanese television series that dramatizes a People’s Liberation Army attack on Taiwan has surprised some here with its portrayals of deep fake videos, as well as massive cyberattacks that take over electronic billboards across the island and display false info.
The Guard of Honor of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army performs a flag-raising ceremony at Bayi Square to celebrate the 97th anniversary on China’s Army Day on Aug. 1, 2024 in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province of China. (Ma Yue/VCG via Getty Images)
RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, the FDD’s senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, took part in the Taiwan wargames. In an online talk to the media shortly after returning to the United States, he noted Taiwan faces challenges with economic continuity. “How do you keep things going during a series of interlaced critical infrastructure failures? Where electrical power drives a problem with financial services, things like that.”
Dean Karalekas, author of “Civil-Military Relations in Taiwan: Identity and Transformation,” told Fox News Digital that “The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been something of a double-edged sword in terms of Taiwanese preparedness.” Karalekas pointed out that, on the one hand, it has opened many people’s eyes to the realistic likelihood that Chinese President Xi Jinping will follow Russian President Vladimir Putin’s lead and make good on his promises to annex the island, and the Taiwanese have taken it upon themselves to train in preparation. Karalekas was not involved in the tabletop exercise.
Taiwanese soldiers are deployed during a war and disaster drill as part of the annual Wan-An Air Raid Drill, at a seaport in New Taipei, Taiwan, on July 23, 2024. The drill, which coincides with the annual Han Kuang Exercise, is a joint exercise by nearly 2,000 individuals from government agencies including the military, fire fighting and rescue services. (Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty Images)
On the other hand, Karalekas and other experts agree that many of the skills some in Taiwan are developing are designed to survive kinetic combat of the sort seen in Ukraine – combat, Karalekas and others think, is very unlikely. “It is far more likely that China will begin with a blockade, and soften up the Taiwanese citizenry by depriving them of food, electricity, and all the other imports upon which their economy, and their lives, depend,” Karalekas opined. “No one can read Xi’s mind, but this seems more likely—and more likely to succeed—than an all-out invasion of the sort Putin launched.”
FOR CHINA’S MILITARY PLANNERS, TAIWAN IS NOT AN EASY ISLAND TO INVADE
Tawianese soldiers on board an amphibious ferrying vehicle release oil drums onto Tamsui River during river defense exercise as part of the annual Han Kuang military drill in New Taipei, Taiwan, on July 22, 2024. (Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The U.S.-Taiwan Partnership: A Crucial Factor
In both Taipei and Washington, there is a consensus that both U.S. political parties are committed to supporting Taiwan’s defense, which poses the largest deterrent to China. However, suggestions for improvements include a more entrepreneurial approach to military hardware and software procurement.
Taiwan’s defense budget is constrained by the fact that it can – realistically – only purchase equipment from the U.S. However, the experts said, if smaller, innovative companies were added to the list of those supplying Taiwan’s military, the island could receive necessary tools for asymmetric defense faster and perhaps also cheaper.
Taiwan and US subject matter experts take briefing on Chinese economic coercion moves in initial stage of multi-move tabletop exercise in Taipei. ( TABF (Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance).)
A roughly 100-mile stretch of water separates China from Taiwan, and as Matt Pottinger suggested in a recent book, titled “The Boiling Moat,” Taiwan and its major ally, the United States, should look for more innovative ways to turn the Taiwan Strait into a death trap for any PRC invasion attempt.
Put simply, it is easy to neutralize a few submarines, but much harder to kill thousands of small, “kamikaze” drone subs that could swarm Chinese ships and vessels, sending them to the bottom of the shallow Taiwan Strait long before they reach the shores of Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Internal Challenges: Reserves and Energy
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command launches large-scale joint military exercises around Taiwan with naval vessels and military aircraft in China on May 24, 2024. (Photo by Feng Hao / PLA / China Military/Anadolu via Getty Images)
U.S. and Taiwanese experts agree that reforming Taiwan’s military reserves is essential. At present, they are insufficiently trained and sorely ill-equipped. Building a robust reserve force is no easy feat, however, and will require a multi-year plan backed by significant financial resources and political will.
INSPIRED BY UKRAINE, TAIWAN SEEKS TO BOLSTER MILITARY PREPAREDNESS AS CHINA THREAT CONTINUES
Taiwan’s reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) was also singled out by the FDD team as a potential weakness. Around 40% of Taiwan’s power generation is fueled by LNG, and the country has only a reported 10-plus-day inventory. The fact that Taiwan’s LNG must be transported by sea, means that no matter if it comes from Australia, a U.S. ally, or Qatar, generally seen as more pro-China, LNG shipments are vulnerable to a maritime blockade or “quarantine.”
Complicating matters, the Democratic Progressive Party, which has ruled Taiwan since 2016, refused to extend the life of Taiwan’s existing nuclear energy reactors (the last of which will go offline in 2025) and has instead pledged resources toward wind and solar. However, green power sources may not provide meaningful or resilient power, as FDD China Program Director Craig Singelton pointed out in the same previously-mentioned media briefing, “I think it’s quite clear in every war game I’ve ever participated in … that Chinese pilots use the wind turbines for target practice.”
The November 2024 Election’s Impact: A Looming Question
The FDD team noted that some Taiwanese officials are concerned about the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election and worry about the possibility of a more transactional approach from a second Trump administration. Former President Donald Trump made headlines not long ago for saying that Taiwan should “pay us” for defense and that Taiwan “doesn’t give us anything.”
Trump is known to use hyperbolic statements to help convey his insistence that allies – from Taiwan to NATO – contribute more financially to defense. Members of the U.S. wargame team suggested that Taiwan should proactively address the concerns raised by the former president about its defense budget, essentially “showing the receipts” in a public manner to showcase its previous spending while continuing to commit to increased spending, all while gently reminding the U.S. public and Washington of the benefits of a strong U.S.-Taiwan partnership.
Updated:
Iran outmanoeuvred US President Donald Trump “like a violin” in negotiations, walking away with far better terms after sensing his desperation for a deal to end the war, former National Security Adviser John Bolton told Euronews.
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TEL AVIV, Israel: Reactions in Israel to the Memorandum of Understanding reached by President Donald Trump and Iran on Sunday have been a mix of wait-and-see-the details and outright criticism.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed on Sunday that Tehran and Washington had finalized a memorandum of understanding ending the war after months of negotiations. In a statement, the council said all military operations across multiple fronts, including in Lebanon, would cease “immediately and permanently.”
Talks on a comprehensive final agreement will reportedly begin only after both sides have implemented their obligations under the framework and are expected to continue for up to 60 days.
On Monday night, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the nation, saying he had spent decades fighting Iran’s efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon. “I can define it as the mission of my life,” he said. “I stood by it until now, and I will stand by it in the future. With or without a deal, Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.”
TRUMP ANNOUNCES PEACE DEAL WITH IRAN, DECLARES STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL REOPEN: ‘LET THE OIL FLOW!’
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking to reporters during a press conference on the U.S-Iran deal on June 15, 2026. (Israel Government Press Office)
He continued, “Not today and not tomorrow. As long as I am the prime minister of Israel, it will not happen.”
Responding to reporters’ questions, Netanyahu acknowledged that he was not familiar with the exact details of the memorandum of understanding reached between the Trump administration and the Iranian regime but lauded the joint U.S.-Israel operation against the regime.
Netanyahu said the campaigns had spared Israel from the threat of nuclear annihilation. “If we had not acted when we did… and with the force we demonstrated in a historic partnership with President Trump and the U.S. military, Iran would already possess atomic bombs,” Netanyahu said.
Earlier on Monday, Defense Minister Israel Katz, held back from directly criticizing the deal but said that the IDF would not withdraw from southern Lebanon, warning that if Iran attacks Israel in response to the fighting against Hezbollah, “we will strike it with full force.”
He said, “The IDF will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, without any time limit, to protect the border and Israeli communities against jihadist elements.”
IDF troops fighting Hezbollah terrorists in southern Lebanon. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit.)
Katz described the security zones as “among the IDF’s greatest achievements” in the multi-front war since the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023 massacre, adding that Israel therefore opposes an IDF withdrawal from Lebanon despite all the pressures that will still come.
Katz said he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had conveyed these positions to U.S. President Donald Trump and other senior American officials, including U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.
“We will not compromise on Israel’s security interests and the protection of our citizens,” he concluded.
IRAN’S REGIME SPINS NUCLEAR AND STRAIT OF HORMUZ DEAL WITH TRUMP AS VICTORY OVER US, ISRAEL
President Donald Trump monitors U.S. military operations in Iran following an Israeli strike in Tehran on Feb. 28, 2026. (@WhiteHouse/X)
Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and former chief of the research division in the Israel Defense Forces’ Military Intelligence Directorate, told Fox News Digital that the details of the agreement remain sketchy.
“There was a debate within the Iranian leadership over whether to accept the deal,” he said. “It appears that the information we are hearing is coming from those who opposed it. Maybe they are right, maybe they are wrong, but it raises major concerns in Israel. If this is the deal, it is a disaster. If one listens to President Trump, the deal is probably something different.”
Kuperwasser defined a “good deal” as one in which Iran gives up all components of its nuclear program, grants access to enriched uranium and establishes a robust monitoring system capable of reaching anywhere at any time, including military facilities likely being used for atomic purposes. He added that such an agreement should also prohibit production of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
A fireball rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike targeting an area in Beirut’s southern suburbs overnight on March 10 to 11, 2026. (Fadel itani / AFP via Getty Images)
“Lebanon’s fate is a matter to be discussed between Washington, Jerusalem, and Beirut,” Kuperwasser said. “Iran is not a party to those talks and should not be according to the Lebanese government. If Lebanon is to be part of a deal with Iran, it means Tehran has a say in Lebanese matters.”
Kuperwasser noted that Israel has lived under the shadow of Iran’s nuclear program since 1998, while noting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is uniquely positioned to assess the issue given his decades of involvement. He said it remains unclear whether Netanyahu is satisfied with the outcome or what his final assessment will be.
ISRAELI OFFICIALS REPORTEDLY WARN IRAN’S BALLISTIC MISSILES COULD TRIGGER SOLO MILITARY ACTION AGAINST TEHRAN
Former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, now leader of the opposition, referred Fox News Digital to his comments on X.
“The emerging agreement achieves none of Israel’s war goals. The regime survives, the missile program exists, and Iran can rebuild its nuclear program. This is a complete failure by Netanyahu, and in the process, he is turning us into a client state that takes orders about its national security,” he wrote.
A motorist rides past a banner featuring images of Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his son Mojtaba Khamenei along a street in Tehran on April 15, 2026. (AFP/Getty Images)
On March 19, Prime Minister Netanyahu outlined three war objectives for the U.S.-Israel joint operation against Iran: “One, removing the nuclear threat. Second, removing the ballistic missile threat and removing both of these threats before they’re buried deep underground and become immune from aerial attack. And third, this means creating the conditions for the Iranian people to grasp their freedom, to control their destiny,” the premier stated at the time.
Dr Meir Javedanfar, Iran lecturer at Reichman University, told Fox News Digital that Israel’s most immediate concern regarding the deal is the clause dealing with Lebanon.
“There is genuine concern that this could tie Israel’s hands,” he said. “An additional concern is that Hezbollah could use this clause to regroup and strengthen its armed forces and positions along the border with Israel.”
LETHAL ELITE ‘BLACK-CLAD’ KILL SQUAD GUARDS IRAN’S NEW SUPREME LEADER MOJTABA KHAMENEI
Javedanfar said it is too early to assess whether the deal would leave Israel in a significantly stronger position than the 2015 Obama-era nuclear agreement, citing the fate of Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and its atomic infrastructure.
“Will Iran be allowed to continue enriching uranium on its soil? If yes, at what percentage? And how will the international community oversee Iran’s nuclear program? What kind of inspection program will they have? How intrusive will they be?” he added.
The Israel Defense Forces said its troops located and destroyed a Hezbollah underground command center with infrastructure about 8 meters below ground in South Lebanon. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)
Israel’s controversial National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir on Monday insisted that the MOU does not bind the Jewish state. “Israel is not subject to the United States, and we are an independent and sovereign nation,” he tweeted, adding that Jerusalem’s duty is to its citizens, its soldiers and the Jewish people.”
He stated, “My position is clear: we are not partners to this agreement that does not ensure our security, and it does not bind us in any way,” he said, adding that while Israelis “love” the United States and “are grateful” to Trump, “the State of Israel is not a banana republic.”
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On Friday, Netanyahu’s office stated that “Even though Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding, the Prime Minister expressed his appreciation for President Trump’s commitment that the final agreement at the conclusion of negotiations will include the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production, and the cessation of Iran’s support for its terrorist proxies in the region.”
President Donald Trump meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago on Dec. 29, 2025, to discuss Iran tensions and the Gaza peace plan. (Israel Government Press Office)
Quoting the prime minister, the statement added that “As long as I am the Prime Minister of Israel – Iran will not have nuclear weapons. President Trump and I are in full agreement on this issue. For over 30 years, I have been at the forefront of the international struggle against Iran’s nuclear program. Were it not for this struggle, Iran would have long ago possessed atomic bombs to destroy Israel. Iran is working to destroy the Jewish state, and I am dedicating my life to preventing them from doing so. As long as I am the Prime Minister of Israel, this will not happen.”
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