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Five questions for Washington amid bloodshed in Israel and Gaza

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Five questions for Washington amid bloodshed in Israel and Gaza


The world is reeling as it watches events in Israel and Gaza.

As of Monday afternoon, around 800 Israelis had been confirmed dead as a result of Hamas’s surprise attack. Around 700 Palestinians had been killed in response.

The crisis has no immediate end in sight. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged that “though Israel didn’t start this war, Israel will finish it.”

Netanyahu also contended, in relation to Hamas, that Israel “will exact a price that will be remembered by them and Israel’s other enemies for decades to come.”

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For its part, Hamas said that it would execute hostages — and broadcast the executions — in response to future bombings of civilian housing by Israel.

The grim situation has big implications for American politics, too.

Beyond the devastating human toll in the Middle East, here are some of the biggest questions confronting Washington. 

Was Iran behind the attack?

This is one of the biggest questions. It has not yet been answered in a definitive way.

Iran is a key supporter of Hamas, and of several other Palestinian armed groups.

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But backing for the overall cause does not necessarily translate into knowledge of the specifics of the plan to invade Israel.

The most concrete report of Iranian involvement so far came in a Wall Street Journal story on Sunday.

The Journal’s reporters wrote that Iranian security officials had given “the green light” for the attack at a recent meeting in Beirut. 

The story also included the claim that “officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps had worked with Hamas since August” to conceive the invasion.

The Journal’s most dramatic claims were sourced to unnamed “senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah.” But it also included denials, both from a Hamas official and from a spokesperson for the Iranian mission to the United Nations, that there had been coordination.

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Notably, neither the American government nor the Israeli government has stated definitively that Iran was involved. 

A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Force (IDF) told Politico on Monday that “we have no evidence or proof” Iran was behind the attack, though he added that Israel was certain “the Iranians were not surprised.” 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, “We have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack, but there is certainly a long relationship.”

The question of Iranian involvement is so vital because, were it to be proven, both Israel and the United States would be obligated to take some kind of action against Tehran — which in turn could enlarge the conflict.

How big are the political dangers for President Biden?

Republican presidential candidates have been lining up to bash President Biden for what they contend is his weakness on the international stage.

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In particular, they’ve been condemning the deal reached in August that unfroze $6 billion in Iranian funds in return for the release of five Americans.

Former President Trump said Biden had whittled away at Middle East peace “at a far more rapid pace than anyone thought possible.”

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis wrote on social media that “Iran has helped fund this war against Israel and Joe Biden’s policies that have gone easy on Iran have helped fill their coffers.”

And former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday that Blinken’s claim that the $6 billion could not have been used in the attack — since it is restricted to humanitarian purposes — was “irresponsible.”

On one level, the attack on Israel plays into the Republican attack line that Democrats in general, and Biden in particular, are too soft with American adversaries. 

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Versions of this argument have been used in relation to China, as well as Iran, throughout the Biden presidency.

Still, there is no certainty that voters will blame Biden for events on the other side of the world that even Israel’s vaunted security apparatus failed to see coming.

In addition, Biden’s experience can appeal to voters in moments of international crisis.

His response to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and the way he assembled a coalition to resist it, won plaudits in the months afterward.

Could the conflict affect aid to Ukraine?

Events in Israel and Gaza could have an effect on the war in Ukraine in at least two ways.

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In big-picture terms, there are questions about whether any increased American commitments to Israel could sap American public will for aid to Ukraine. 

Public support for Ukraine’s effort to repel the Russian invasion has dipped over time. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week, only a narrow plurality of adults — 41 percent to 35 percent — supported America continuing to arm Ukraine. In May, a poll from the same organizations found Americans favored arming Ukraine by a wider, 17-point margin.

It seems plausible that requests for additional aid to Israel could make Americans even less willing to countenance heavy spending for Ukraine.

However, in terms of the congressional process, there is already some talk about putting both aid to Israel and to Ukraine into any new spending deal. 

Such a deal will need to be agreed upon by Nov. 17, otherwise the government will shut down. 

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Putting aid for both nations into a must-pass package could be one way for advocates of such aid to overcome resistance.

How will it impact Congress and the race for Speaker?

It is a bad look, by any reasonable standard, for the House to be without a Speaker in the middle of an international crisis.

Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) holds tightly circumscribed powers, limited mainly to facilitating the election of a proper replacement for Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who was toppled as Speaker last week.

In essence, the situation leaves the House frozen. 

The immediate effects are more symbolic than substantive — for example, it makes it more cumbersome for the House to pass a resolution condemning Hamas.

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If the House were to spend prolonged time without a Speaker, it would hamper the fulfillment of any Israeli request for supplemental help, beyond the $3 billion-plus of aid the U.S. already provides.

The lack of a Speaker is also one more example of the dysfunction that has caused the nation’s politics to seize up in recent years.

The net effect could nudge House Republicans to select a Speaker more quickly than they otherwise would do this week. 

A vote could come as soon as Wednesday, with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) as the only two declared candidates.

McCarthy has become a bit of a wild card, however. 

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Twice on Monday — during an interview on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show and at a Capitol Hill press conference — he held the door ajar to a possible return to the Speakership, even while stopping well short of announcing a candidacy.

Could the Jewish American vote shift anytime soon?

Republican attacks on Biden play well with GOP primary voters, but it’s a lot less clear whether they will bring about any major shift in the Jewish vote.

Jewish Americans have traditionally been a strong pillar of Democratic support. There is little evidence that increased GOP efforts to win Jewish voters have had a major impact.

A Pew Research Center survey published in 2021 found that 71 percent of American Jews identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 26 percent favor Republicans.

Jewish voters chose Biden over Trump by almost 40 points in 2020 — 69 percent to 30 percent — according to a voter analysis commissioned by The Associated Press and Fox News. The 69 percent Biden won was exactly the same figure as that won by then-President Obama in his 2012 reelection win over GOP nominee Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah).

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It’s possible, of course, that the seismic shock of the Hamas attack could force some kind of realignment, especially if new details emerge that are damning of the Biden administration.

Still, Jewish support for Democrats has proven resilient for decades.

Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.



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Burst in covid spending helped students recover, researchers find

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Burst in covid spending helped students recover, researchers find


When Congress sent tens of billions of dollars to schools — an unprecedented sum — to battle the pandemic, it seemed like reopening campuses was going to be the toughest thing. Or maybe keeping teachers and students covid-free. But it turns out the hardest thing was helping students recover from severe academic losses sustained during the depths of the pandemic.

Schools reopened. Students and teachers were, for the most part, kept safe from covid. But what about academic recovery? Did the money help kids get back on track?

Two new reports offer the same answer: Yes.

“There were many reasons to think the money wouldn’t have a very big effect on kids learning because it wasn’t targeted and there were lots of other needs,” said Sean Reardon, an education researcher at Stanford University and co-author of the first paper. “But in fact it did have a significant effect on learning.”

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Yet it didn’t finish the job. Between 2019 and 2022, the average U.S. student lost about a half grade level in math and a third of a grade level in reading, according to test data from 30 states analyzed by researchers at Harvard and Stanford universities in the Education Recovery Scorecard project. Students made up about 30 percent of the loss in math and 20 percent of the loss in reading between spring 2022 and spring 2023. Some — though not all — of that can be traced to the federal funding, the researchers conclude. (Results of spring 2024 testing are not yet available.)

“Despite what is an unprecedented amount of money, kids are still far behind,” said Dan Goldhaber, an education researcher at the American Institutes for Research and the University of Washington, who co-authored the second research paper.

Why wasn’t $190 billion — the largest one-time education investment in U.S. history — enough? Among the reasons: Some of the money was spent on covid mitigation and testing, the main focus of the legislation, not academics. Not all of the money for academics was invested in the most effective strategies, because they had other priorities or perhaps were unaware of the research. Not every district got robust funding. And the losses were deep.

Fully catching kids up would require additional spending, the researchers find. The opposite is actually unfolding, with districts running out of the money already allocated. Schools are required to spend the last of the covid relief funding in the coming months, and across the country, districts are cutting staff and programs that were aimed at accelerating academic recovery.

“If the goal is having all students made whole from the pandemic, I do think that states will need to step up,” said Tom Kane, a professor of education and economics at Harvard University and co-author of the first paper, which was produced by a team of researchers from Harvard, Stanford and Dartmouth universities.

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Still, the gains already recorded were big enough to pay for themselves, based on how increases in academic achievement translate into higher wages in adulthood, Kane said.

Both papers take advantage of a quirk in how the nearly $190 billion in federal covid relief funds, which came over three allotments in 2020 and 2021, were allocated to K-12 school districts. The government relied on a formula that gave more money to districts with higher portions of students living in poverty. Due to oddities in that formula, districts with similar poverty levels got different amounts. Among the districts where at least 90 percent of students are from families poor enough to qualify for free or subsidized school lunches, federal allocations ranged from less than $4,000 to more than $13,000 per student — in some cases, much more.

The differences among district allocations allowed researchers to estimate the relationship between more funding and test scores. One study examined funding from only the third allocation, by far the largest, approved in 2021; the other looked at the second and third tranches. Both studies examined the impact of the money on all districts, rich and poor.

The two teams came to the same conclusion: An additional $1,000 per student in federal funding translated into a gain of about 3 percent of a grade level of learning in math. For reading, the gains were similar in one study and a bit smaller in the other. These results are in line with what pre-pandemic studies found of earlier, more modest increases in education spending.

This implies that giving a school district an extra $8,000 per student would have been enough to make up nearly half of the average math losses. That compares to average per-pupil spending of $13,187 in 2019, before the pandemic and the surge of federal dollars.

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Looking at it another way, the Harvard-Stanford team compared achievement levels between high-poverty districts with similar levels of past achievement that received larger grants and smaller grants. Students in the high-grant districts gained about a fifth of a year more in math than the low-grant districts did and almost as much in reading.

The money appears to have made a difference in the School District of Philadelphia, which received more than $1.6 billion in federal funding — more than $14,000 per student. Between spring 2022 and spring 2023, students made up on average a half grade in math — more than 80 percent of the average losses sustained in Philadelphia between 2019 and 2022.

A large share of money in Philadelphia was spent on extra learning time for students — before and after school and over the summer, and to add social services and counselors. The district also spent $325 million on facilities improvements, something meant to make old buildings safer but that did not directly impact student learning.

Superintendent Tony B. Watlington, Sr., in a statement, credited the federal funding with playing a key role in Philadelphia becoming “the fastest improving large, urban district” in the country.

Now the district is hoping that a statewide lawsuit challenging Pennsylvania’s school funding formula will result in more funding for Philadelphia to replace the lost federal dollars. For now, the schools are using reserve funds to maintain the supports put in place, said Christina Clark, a spokeswoman for the district.

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“We’re working on preserving those because we’ve seen the impact it’s had on students,” she said.

The Cleveland Metropolitan School District also saw significant federal spending — nearly $427 million in the second and third allotments, or about $12,000 per student. As in Philadelphia, students also gained about a half year of learning in math between spring 2022 and spring 2023, but the losses in Cleveland were deeper, so this erased only about half of the slide since 2019. Early data from spring 2024 testing shows progress continued, though details were not available, officials said.

One of Cleveland’s key investments was a robust summer learning program, which combined engaging and fun activities with academic review. The district also upped funding to each school, and some used the extra for tutoring or other academic supports.

“We would not have been able to do some of this work at scale if we did not have this funding,” said Selena Florence, the district’s chief academic officer.

With the federal money running out, Cleveland this year cut back its summer program, which had served more than 5,000 students in the last few years, by about half. The district cut back other programs too, and eliminated the extra school-based funding.

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But Florence said she is optimistic that Cleveland can continue making progress. “Having additional money is always going to help us doing the work we have to do,” she said. “The work can certainly be done without it.”

Researchers did not credit all the academic gains recorded to more federal spending. Many districts that received no money, or very little, saw large gains. These were typically wealthy districts that consistently have other advantages.

And low-income districts saw improvements beyond what the federal funding alone would have predicted, the Harvard-Stanford group found. Among districts with at least 70 percent of low-income students, between one-third and one-half of the improvement in test scores could be attributed to the federal funding. It was not clear what accounted for the rest; possibilities include deeper parental involvement, extra efforts by teachers or extra local funding.

Kane bemoaned that there is scant data to explain how districts spent their money, seeing a missed opportunity to assess which interventions were most effective. Past research has found certain initiatives — such as intense tutoring or small class sizes in the early years — produce greater academic gains than others. The federal rules required that districts spend at least 20 percent of their money addressing learning losses, but there was little guidance beyond that.

“In the absence of being able to say which interventions work, we can ask the next best thing,” he said. “Did the districts that got and received more money go faster in catching up?” The answer, they found, is yes.

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Analysis | No, Biden won’t be on performance-enhancing drugs for the debate

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Analysis | No, Biden won’t be on performance-enhancing drugs for the debate


Allies of Donald Trump have painted themselves into a cognitive corner. President Biden is unfit for office, they argue, because he is so old, and his mental abilities have deteriorated markedly. But then Biden will, say, deliver a State of the Union address in which he is energetic and pointed for more than an hour.

So they modify their claim: Biden is addled and wandering, except when he is given some sort of medication, perhaps a stimulant, that reverses that effect. And here we are, with Trump and those seeking his reelection to the White House demanding that Biden submit to some sort of drug test before this week’s first presidential debate, purportedly in effort to sniff out this theoretical drug.

Experts who spoke with The Washington Post, though, confirm that no such medicine exists.

At the outset, we should recognize that this claim is generally not offered seriously. It is, instead, an effort to escape the aforementioned contradiction, a way to hold both that Biden is incapable of serving as president and yet, unquestionably at times, not demonstrating any such impairment. What’s more, the demand that Biden undergo a drug test is itself not serious. It is, instead, meant to create a condition that allows Trump and his allies to continue to claim that any strong performance from Biden is a function of medication. The result is win-win for Trump, who can blame any loss on this wonder drug.

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If you haven’t been paying close attention to the debate (such as it is) over this idea, consider a snippet of conversation that aired on Fox Business on Tuesday morning.

Host Maria Bartiromo — no stranger to conspiratorial argumentation — hosted Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) where she offered an observation made by Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Tex.).

“Jackson says Biden will have been at Camp David for a full week before the debate,” Bartiromo said, “and that they’re probably experimenting with getting doses right. Giving him medicine ahead of the debate.”

Burlison agreed that this was possible, though he offered that it might be more innocuous than medication. Perhaps, he said, Biden’s team is “jack[ing] him up on Mountain Dew.”

Jackson, you will recall, was Trump’s personal doctor while Trump was in the White House. He is not an expert on cognition or cognition-related illnesses, though he is familiar with drug prescription.

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“Nothing like that exists,” Thomas Wisniewski, director of the NYU Langone Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center, told The Washington Post by phone. “There are no medications or stimulants that can reverse a dementing process transiently.”

“All of those sorts of things can perhaps make an individual more alert, but quite often that can just exacerbate their confusion, as well,” he added. “They can be more stimulated, but they are not going to be behaving in a more cogent or normal fashion as a result of being stimulated by anything. Very often it’s the reverse.”

Adam Brickman, associate professor of neuropsychology at Columbia University Irving Medical Center, concurred with that assessment.

“I’m not aware of any medications that would reverse or mask cognitive decline,” Brickman said. What’s more, he noted that “the association between energy and cognition is a very weak one. In other words, someone could have low energy but totally intact cognition and vice versa.”

Both doctors noted that such a medication would be of enormous benefit. Reversing cognitive decline, after all, would mean turning back the damage done from diseases that impair cognition in the first place. It would be akin not just to treating the pain of a broken bone but, instead, to directly healing the break itself. Sadly, no such drug for cognition exists.

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Again, the argument that Biden is or could be receiving targeted treatment to improve his mental state fails multiple logical tests. Why, for example, would he not simply take this medication all the time? Why would he need to retest his dosage for a debate after giving a lengthy State of the Union address? The answer is that there is no good answer, that the intent of the allegations is simply to maintain the political argument that Biden is mentally deficient even in the face of his performing above expectations in a debate.

Not that that argument is itself well-grounded, as Brickman noted.

“It’s not possible to conclude or to determine whether someone has subtle cognitive change without doing a true clinical evaluation,” he said. “So to judge whether there’s an underlying disease or neurodegenerative condition based on public speeches or interactions that are captured by the press is irresponsible.”

Wisniewski offered a more succinct dismissal of the claims being made by Trumpworld.

“It’s spurious,” he said. “It’s nonsensical.”

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In other words, if Biden fares better in the debate this week, it’s not because of a secret Camp David drug-dosing regimen that enabled the administration to mask Biden’s physical degeneration. It’s because Biden out-debated the guy who won’t accept that that’s possible.



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Elderly couple dies in Washington Heights apartment building fire

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Elderly couple dies in Washington Heights apartment building fire


An elderly couple died when a massive fire tore through their Washington Heights apartment building early Tuesday, FDNY and NYPD officials said.

The blaze broke out inside a top-floor apartment in the six-story building on W. 178th St. near Broadway, a block from the entrance to the George Washington Bridge, about 1:45 a.m.

“Upon arrival in four-and-a-half minutes we saw heavy fire venting from three windows on the top floor,” FDNY Deputy Chief of Special Operations Malcolm Moore said at the scene. “We did an aggressive interior attack and found a couple, an older male and female, inside the apartment.”

The woman was found suffering from burns and smoke inhalation in the front room, Moore said.

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“Once the units battled past the heavy fire condition we found the second victim, believed to be a male, in a back bedroom,” the chief said.

The couple were taken to Harlem Hospital, where they both died, the NYPD confirmed. Their names were not immediately released.

It took more than 130 firefighters about two hours to put out the massive blaze.

Three other building residents, a firefighter, and two FDNY emergency medical technicians suffered minor injuries, FDNY officials said. The civilians were treated at the scene while the FDNY workers were treated at local hospitals.

FDNY fire marshals are investigating the cause of the fire.

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