The new Big 12 may lack national championship contenders, but it could be extremely competitive. That starts with its impressive group of coaches, including three who made my top 10 in the country this spring — Kansas’ Lance Leipold, Utah’s Kyle Whittingham and Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy. Kansas State’s Chris Klieman, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell and new Houston coach Willie Fritz made my list, too.
I could see any of six teams — Utah, Kansas State, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Kansas or Iowa State — winning the league this season, without much separation between them. (And West Virginia and UCF aren’t that far behind). But as I dug deeper into depth charts and schedules this week, I realized one team does stand out above the others.
Big 12 predictions
| Team |
Big 12 record |
Overall record |
|
8-1
|
11-1
|
|
7-2
|
10-2
|
|
6-3
|
9-3
|
|
6-3
|
9-3
|
|
6-3
|
9-3
|
|
6-3
|
9-3
|
|
6-3
|
8-4
|
|
5-4
|
7-5
|
|
4-5
|
7-5
|
|
4-5
|
6-6
|
|
3-6
|
5-7
|
|
3-6
|
5-7
|
|
3-6
|
5-7
|
|
2-7
|
5-7
|
|
2-7
|
4-8
|
|
1-8
|
3-9
|
Few thoughts on top contenders
Utah: Whittingham’s program comes in ready-made to contend for Big 12 titles, starting with the return of two-time Pac-12 champion quarterback Cam Rising after missing all of last season. The defense was solid last year even with a ton of injuries and brings back eight starters. One concern: Will a feature running back will emerge?
Kansas State: Klieman’s team is going to run the ball like mad with star dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson and the backfield tandem of DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards. That is, if the offensive line successfully retools after losing four starters. The defense should be able to rush the passer but needs to improve against the run.
Arizona: You can never predict how a coaching transition will go, but Brent Brennan walked into a nice situation. Star quarterback Noah Fifita and All-America receiver Tetairoa McMillan return from a 10-win squad. The defense, led by linebacker Jacob Manu, could be sneaky good. There’s only one problem: The team’s games against Utah and K-State are on the road.
Oklahoma State: You won’t find more continuity than with the Cowboys, who bring back both coordinators and 20 starters, including Doak Walker winner Ollie Gordon II, quarterback Alan Bowman and the entire offensive line. But the Cowboys’ defense remains suspect, and they unfortunately drew both Utah and a trip to K-State.
Kansas: Yes, the Jayhawks can win the Big 12, provided quarterback Jalon Daniels remains healthy. Leipold’s offense is brimming with playmakers like running backs Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr. and receivers Lawrence Arnold, Quentin Skinner and Luke Grimm. The defensive front needs to be more disruptive to take the next step.
Iowa State: On paper, this should be Campbell’s best team since the Brock Purdy era. Quarterback Rocco Becht was the Big 12 Freshman of the Year, running back Abu Sama III exploded onto the scene late last season, and the defense is brimming with experience. But the schedule looks to be the toughest of my top six teams.
West Virginia: Neal Brown became the rare coach to win his way off the hot seat, going from 5-7 to 9-4. Quarterback Garrett Greene and running back CJ Donaldson should benefit from an experienced offensive line, and the defense gained some nice portal adds. But it’s crowded at the top of the league, and the Mountaineers could get squeezed out.
UCF: UCF was the only one of last year’s four new programs to reach a bowl game and won three of its last four, most notably a 45-3 rout of 10-win Oklahoma State. And that was before adding veteran quarterback KJ Jefferson from Arkansas. While I predicted a modest two-win improvement in conference play, the ceiling may be higher.
Thoughts on other new schools
Arizona State: Kenny Dillingham walked into a doozy of a rebuilding job last season. The Sun Devils finished 3-9 but lost several close games, shut down Michael Penix Jr. and knocked off UCLA (running the swinging gate, no less.) ASU is at least another year away, however, as it develops a quarterback and builds experience on defense.
Colorado: We know Deion Sanders has a quarterback, son Shedeur, a high first-round two-way playmaker in Travis Hunter and proven tailback Dallan Hayden (from Ohio State). But the Buffs underwent significant staff turnover (five new assistants, including defensive coordinator Robert Livingston), and the offensive line will be a huge question mark again.
(Photos of Avery Johnson, left, and Cam Rising: Julio Aguilar, David Becker / Getty Images)
