Seattle, WA
Playoff Race: Where Seattle Mariners stand after win over Astros
The Seattle Mariners aren’t checking out of the AL West race yet, and they’re also a little closer to a wild card because of it.
On a night where the Houston Astros could have clinched the division with a win over Seattle, the M’s rode a scoreless start from native Texan Bryce Miller to a 6-1 victory on Monday at Minute Maid Park.
Miller shines, Mariners win 6-1 to keep Astros from clinching
Don’t get too excited – the Astros (85-72) still can clinch the AL West with a win in either of the following two games of the series. But the good news is if the Mariners (81-76) can avoid that from happening, they’ll have an ace in the hole as they have guaranteed the season series over the Astros. Monday’s win makes the M’s 7-4 against Houston this year, so if the two division rivals somehow tie at the end of the season, the Mariners would take the AL West crown.
That remains a long shot. Not only would Seattle need to sweep Houston to keep its AL West hopes alive, but it would need help from the AL Central champion Cleveland Guardians, who play the Astros in three games to close out the season. With five games to go for both the Mariners and Astros, Seattle needs Houston to not get to 87 wins, while also getting to at least 85 wins itself. If Houston loses out, they’ll be 85-77. If the Mariners win out, they will be 86-76.
The wild card – two of them, actually – remains the Mariners’ best shot at making the playoffs, however.
MLB Standings: Division | Wild card
Most of Seattle’s competition in that race had Monday off, so the Mariners picked up a half-game on the three teams they’re chasing for the wild cards. They’re now 1 1/2 games behind the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals (82-74), who are tied for the last two postseason spots from the American League. The M’s are also a half-game behind the Minnesota Twins (81-75) in the chase.
Seattle can’t rely on just tying with any of those teams, though. The M’s will need to finish a game ahead in the standings of at least two of them to make the playoffs.
There was one more team alive in the race for the AL wild cards that played Monday. The Boston Red Sox improved to 79-78 with a 4-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. They’re now 3 1/2 games back of a playoff spot and two behind Seattle.
Fangraphs’ playoff odds for the Mariners are at 11.9% after Monday’s win. The M’s have a 9.4% chance at a wild card, and a 2.5% chance at winning the AL West.
One more note on the Mariners following Monday’s win: Now at 81 wins on the year, Seattle is guaranteed to not have a losing season. One more win over the final five games will give the Mariners their fourth consecutive winning season, tying a club record that happened once in franchise history from 2000-03.
How can the Seattle Mariners make the playoffs?
• To take the AL West, Seattle needs to win at least four more times than the Astros do over the final five games. The Astros’ magic number is two, meaning they will clinch the division with any combination of Houston wins and Seattle losses that reaches two. With the two rivals playing again Tuesday and Wednesday, that means the Astros can clinch with a win in either game.
• To earn a wild card, the Mariners need at least two of these to happen this week:
– Win at least two more games than the Twins.
– Win at least three more games than the Royals.
– Win at least three more games than the Tigers.
Who plays who?
The Mariners (81-76) have two more games at Houston, then finish up with a three-game home series against Oakland (67-89).
The Astros (85-72) play the AL Central champion Guardians (90-67) in Cleveland after their series with the Mariners.
The Twins (81-75) host Miami (57-99) for three games, then Baltimore (86-70), the likely first AL wild card winner.
The Royals (82-74) are at Washington (69-87) and Atlanta (85-71) to wrap up the regular season.
The Tigers (82-74) play the Rays in Detroit, then welcome the MLB-worst White Sox (36-120) to town.
The Rays (78-78) go to Boston after the series with the Tigers.
The Red Sox (79-78) are at Toronto (73-84) before the series with the Rays.
What’s next
The Mariners play the Astros at 5:10 p.m. Tuesday, then 11:10 a.m. Wednesday. Mariners Radio Network coverage can be heard on Seattle Sports 710 AM, the Seattle Sports app and SeattleSports.com beginning at 4 p.m. Tuesday and 10 a.m. Wednesday with the pregame show. For more on how to hear Mariners radio broadcasts from Seattle Sports, click here.
More on the Seattle Mariners
• Mariners activate reliever Gregory Santos from injured list
• Julio Rodríguez named AL Player of the Week
• The Final Push: What the Mariners are up against in last week
• Astros star hurt before huge series against M’s in Houston
• Five Seattle Mariners prospects who raised their stock with big seasons
Seattle, WA
Report: Seattle Mariners a front-runner for Cards’ Donovan
The Seattle Mariners have emerged as one of two front-runners in trade talks with the St. Louis Cardinals for utilityman Brendan Donovan, The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported on Saturday.
Drayer: How Polanco’s departure impacts Seattle Mariners’ offseason
Woo reported a league source said trade discussions between the Mariners and Cardinals have been heating up since the Winter Meetings, and that switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje and outfielder Lazaro Montes – two of Seattle’s top-seven prospects, per MLB pipeline – are two names St. Louis has inquired about, among others.
The Cardinals will not trade Donovan unless they are “blown away” by the return, and it’s believed they are looking for at least two prospects, per Woo’s reporting.
The San Francisco Giants were the other of the two front-runners Woo named. She also said that both the Mariners and Giants remain engaged in talks with the Arizona Diamondbacks about second baseman Ketel Marte.
Can the M’s give up what Arizona wants for a Ketel Marte trade?
Donovan, who will turn 29 next month, has two years of club control remaining. He’s played every position except catcher during his four-year career, with the majority of his time coming at second base and left field. He would figure to mainly factor in at second base and third base for the Mariners, who have young players like Cole Young, Ben Williamson and Colt Emerson vying for time at those positions.
Donovan was a first-time All-Star in 2025, batting .287 with a .353 on-base percentage, .422 slugging percentage, .775 OPS, 32 doubles, 10 home runs and 50 RBIs in 118 games. His 13% strikeout rate ranked in the 92nd percentile of big league hitters and his 13.4% whiff rate in the 95th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
Over four MLB seasons, Donovan has a career .282 average with a .361 on-base percentage, .411 slugging percentage, .772 OPS, 97 doubles, 40 homers and 202 RBIs in 492 games. He won the NL Gold Glove for utility players during his rookie season in 2022.
As for the prospects Woo reported the Cardinals inquiring about, the 22-year-old Cijntje is Seattle’s No. 7 prospect, per MLB Pipeline. The unique pitcher had a 3.99 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while holding opponents to a .207 average, striking out 120 batters and walking 51 in 108 1/3 innings pitched over 26 appearances (23 starts) across High-A and Double-A in 2025.
The 21-year-old Montes is considered to be the best power-hitting prospect in the Mariners’ farm system and is their No. 3 overall farmhand, per MLB Pipeline. The slugging outfielder hit .241 with a .354 on-base percentage, .504 slugging percentage, .858 OPS, 19 doubles, seven triples, 32 home runs, 89 RBIs, 83 walks and 169 strikeouts over 131 games across High-A and Double-A this year. Montes finished tied for third in home runs among minor leaguers across all levels.
The report that the M’s are one of the top contenders for Donovan came on the same day as they lost out on re-signing their top remaining free-agent target, second baseman/designated hitter Jorge Polanco, who reportedly agreed to a two-year, $40 million deal with the New York Mets.
More Seattle Mariners offseason coverage
• Backup catcher target emerges for Seattle Mariners, per reports
• Drayer: Mariners’ plan for 2B and 3B coming more into focus
• Salk: What we know and think about Seattle Mariners’ offseason needs
• Why Nolan Arenado could make sense as a Seattle Mariners trade target
• Drayer: Mariners’ plan for 2B and 3B coming more into focus
• The one move Passan says could make Mariners the AL favorites
Seattle, WA
WEST SEATTLE CHRISTMAS LIGHTS: As seen from two wheels
Tonight’s spotlight lights are courtesy of Al, who sent this photo from a stop during The Beer Junction‘s wassail ride tonight – he says it’s in North Admiral, SW Atlantic between California SW and 44th SW. As for the ride, Al reports 17 people pedaled about six miles:
Wherever and however you find lights worth sharing, westseattleblog@gmail.com – with or without a pic! (To see what we’ve shown already, scroll through this WSB archive!)
Seattle, WA
How Polanco’s departure impacts Seattle Mariners’ offseason
The Seattle Mariners’ offseason will not be completed in a nice, neat, run-it-back bow, with reports Saturday morning that Jorge Polanco and the Mets are in agreement on a two-year, $40 million contract.
Drayer: Mariners’ plan for 2B and 3B coming more into focus
The number was stunning, with most industry insiders estimating Polanco would be looking at something closer to $12-15 million per year. Even ESPN’s Jeff Passan, one of the few to estimate Polanco would receive above $15 million per year, was likely to be surprised Saturday morning.
“He’s not getting $20 million a year,” Passan told Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk on Tuesday. “I think at the end of the day, it’s probably going to be $14-17 million a year. If there are two teams duking it out at the end, maybe it goes up a million a year. It looks like it is going to be a three-year deal, but something along the lines of three (years) for $45-50 (million). I think that’s about right.”
The one move Passan says could make Mariners the AL favorites
The estimated $17 million salary sounded outrageous to the show hosts, but a lot can change this time of year, namely the Mets losing Pete Alonso to the Orioles. In comparison, Polanco is not exactly a splash after the loss of Alonso, but his versatility and offense when healthy (an .821 OPS in 2025) were attractive to the Mets.
Polanco going elsewhere was certainly a possibility – perhaps established as a good possibility when he failed to sign quickly, unlike the Mariners’ No. 1 target of the offseason, Josh Naylor. They were well aware of this with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently admitting the odds were technically against them with numerous teams involved. The Mariners valued Polanco but were outbid by a team that needed to make a move. So they must move on.
While the Mariners remained engaged in talks with free agents this week, it is the trade market where the most attractive candidates reside, with the Cardinals expected to trade Brendan Donovan and the Diamondbacks making Ketel Marte available.
Donovan and Marte would be great fits on the field and on the salary spreadsheet for Seattle, but they would come at the cost of prospect capital with the Cardinals, and to a lesser extent Diamondbacks, dealing from a position of leverage.
The Cardinals do not have to deal Donovan, who has two years remaining under club control, but his value presents new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom the opportunity to make a significant early organizational mark.
In the case of Marte, the leverage he brings the Diamondbacks is short-lived as he will become a 10-and-5 player in the first weeks of the season, meaning he will be able to veto any trades at that point.
Can the M’s give up what Arizona wants for a Ketel Marte trade?
On the free agent market, despite reports that agent Scott Boras reached out to the Mariners about third baseman Alex Bregman having some interest in the team, the big-ticket players appear to remain off limits for the Mariners. They have maintained that the door would be open for Eugenio Suárez in the right circumstances. Assuming that would be a one-year deal, that signing seems unlikely to happen. The remaining free agent infielders appear to be more stopgap options of the take-a-chance variety with names like Willi Castro, Luis Rengifo or even Adam Frazier available.
The loss of Polanco and his production at the plate put Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander in the position where they are going to have to make a gamble. They have a track record of making trades that end up requiring lower-ranked prospects than expected. If that is not the norm this winter, then do they make that painful prospect trade, or trade a starter from the big league roster? Does ownership decide it can make a gamble in expanding the budget for a higher-priced free agent, or does it take the gamble of making smaller moves, essentially staying where they are, seeing how it plays out and attempting to make big moves at the trade deadline once again?
The Mariners and Mariners fans have just been hit with a large dose of uncertainty. In the uncertainty are opportunities, however, and the remainder of the offseason should not be quiet.
More Seattle Mariners offseason coverage
• Backup catcher target emerges for Seattle Mariners, per reports
• Salk: What we know and think about Seattle Mariners’ offseason needs
• Why Nolan Arenado could make sense as a Seattle Mariners trade target
• Seattle Mariners pick two, lose one in minor league phase of Rule 5 draft
• With a tweak, Jose Ferrer could be special in Seattle Mariners’ bullpen
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