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The San Francisco 49ers emerge out of the bye with bettering well being and excessive expectations for the second half of the season. The Niners will welcome the Los Angeles Chargers to Levi’s on Sunday night time soccer as sizeable favorites. Right here we focus on the chances and evaluation from a betting perspective.

• When: Sunday November thirteenth, 2022 at 5:20pm PT (NBC)
• The place: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
• Line: 49ers -7, o/u 45.5

Los Angeles Chargers

Regardless of its depleted receiving corps, the Los Angeles Chargers had been buoyed by a receiving and speeding landing from Austin Ekeler and a couple of area targets within the final 6 minutes of the sport, together with the sport winner, from Cameron Dicker to drag off a 20-17 win on the Atlanta Falcons, transferring their report to 5-3 on the season.

After 9 weeks, Los Angeles ranks twenty first in whole weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted worth over common) at -5.4 %, twenty first in whole weighted offensive DVOA at -3.8 % with a sixteenth ranked offensive cross DVOA at 11.7 % and twenty ninth ranked offensive rush DVOA at -21.2 %. The Chargers protection is rated twentieth in whole weighted defensive DVOA at 3.4 % with a tenth rated defensive cross DVOA at -2.2 % and twenty ninth rated defensive rush DVOA at 5.5 %.

Justin Herbert is eleventh in defense-adjusted yards above alternative (DYAR) at 396 and eleventh in whole QBR at 58.4 with 13 landing passes, 5 interceptions, 2 fumbles misplaced and a 66.4 completion share. Los Angeles’ offensive line is twenty seventh in run blocking with 4.12 adjusted line yards and 1st in cross safety with adjusted sack fee of three.4 %. The Chargers’ defensive position is twenty fourth in opposition to the run with 4.71 adjusted line yards and sixteenth with an adjusted sack fee of seven.3 %.

The Chargers are 5-3 ATS and 4-4 to the over/underneath. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS as an away crew, 1-0 ATS as an underdog, 4-1 to the over/underneath in non-divisional video games. Linebacker Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C Jackson stay on IR, defensive deal with Austin Johnson, kicker Dustin Hopkins and receiver Mike Williams are out, offensive deal with Trey Pipkins III, receiver Keenan Allen, defensive deal with Jerry Tillery and linebacker Chris Rumph II are questionable for Week 10.

San Francisco 49ers

Earlier than the bye week, the 49ers showcased how Christian McCaffrey’s additional integration into the crew and playbook unlocked the potential of Kyle Shanahan’s offense in an unprecedented method, with the brand new working again scoring a passing, receiving and speeding landing en path to a 31-14 domination on the Los Angeles Rams, sweeping the season sequence.

After 9 weeks, San Francisco ranks ninth in weighted whole DVOA at 9.0 %, eleventh in weighted offensive DVOA at 6.7 % with a seventh ranked offensive cross DVOA at 24.3 % and twenty third ranked offensive rush DVOA at -9.3 %. The 49er protection is rated eleventh in whole weighted defensive DVOA at -3.9 % with a thirteenth rated defensive cross DVOA at 2.5 % and 4th rated defensive rush DVOA at -18.4 %.

Jimmy Garoppolo is sixth in defense-adjusted yards above alternative (DYAR) at 529 and twenty third in whole QBR at 47.4 with 11 landing passes, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles misplaced and a 67.0 completion share. San Francisco’s offensive line is twentieth in run blocking with 4.36 adjusted line yards and nineteenth in cross safety with adjusted sack fee of seven.4 %. The Niners’ defensive position is third in opposition to the run with 3.76 adjusted line yards and eighth with an adjusted sack fee of 8.5 %.

The 49ers are 4-4 ATS and 3-5 to the over/underneath. the 49ers are 2-0 ATS as a house favourite, 2-1 ATS as the house crew, 1-5 to the over/underneath as the favourite, 0-2 to the over/underneath as a house favourite. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw, defensive deal with Arik Armstead, cornerback Jason Verrett, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, receiver Deebo Samuel and receiving Jajuan Jennings are questionable and working again Elijah Mitchell stays on IR to date for Week 10.

Prediction

The 49ers could have a good report as house favorites this season, however Kyle Shanahan has not fared nicely as a favourite, even much less in order a big favourite at Levi’s, and we’re hesitant to identify Justin Herbert and a Chargers crew that’s 4-0 ATS on the highway a complete landing.

The 49ers have been an underneath crew for many of the season and unders, significantly in prime time video games, have been cashing at a historic fee to date this yr, however can we anticipate these tendencies to proceed?

In anticipating regression to the imply, the query is just not “if” however “when”, and with extra time for Christian McCaffrey to potentiate Kyle Shanahan’s offense and an arm in Justin Herbert’s that may make up yards and factors rapidly and leaves backdoors open for ATS covers, we foresee extra scoring than anticipated on Sunday night time.

Choose: Over 45.5

2022 Season ATS: 4-5

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