After two years of scholars leaving Oregon public faculties by the 1000’s, enrollment declined once more this yr however not almost as a lot, an indication that enrollment is stabilizing. But the state doesn’t know the place lots of these college students who left went.

Earlier than 2020, enrollment in Oregon’s public faculties had been rising for 9 years straight. That pattern modified as most Oregon faculties closed for greater than a yr earlier than slowly reopening, based on a December 2022 evaluation of Oregon faculty enrollment in the course of the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Within the 2020-2021 faculty yr, enrollment declined 3.7%. The following yr, it fell once more by 1.4%. The Oregon Division of Schooling evaluation notes that Oregon’s ongoing decline set the state aside from most neighboring states, the place enrollment both grew or leveled off in 2021. Solely California skilled a continued decline, however officers level out that enrollment has been declining there since 2017.

This yr, statewide enrollment knowledge launched final week exhibits one other decline in enrollment, however a smaller one. The variety of Oregonians enrolled in public faculties dropped 0.1% from the earlier yr, a web lack of 632 college students.

In an e mail to OPB, ODE officers mentioned they contemplate this yr’s enrollment as a “stabilization.”

Oregon officers discover lack of enrollment restoration ‘regarding’

The drop in enrollment exhibits Oregon faculties have shrunk by 1000’s of scholars over the past 4 years. In October 2019, Oregon public faculties enrolled 582,661 college students in kindergarten via twelfth grade.

Scholar enrollment as of October 2023 statewide stands at 552,380, a lack of greater than 30,000 college students.

Enrollment at Oregon’s largest faculty districts assorted. The state’s three largest – Portland, Salem-Keizer, and Beaverton – all misplaced college students this yr. However two of the subsequent greatest districts – North Clackamas and Eugene – gained college students.

Of the biggest districts, Medford had the biggest change, with enrollment dropping two % from the earlier yr.

College district funding is tied to the variety of college students served – fewer college students typically means fewer state {dollars}. A decline within the variety of college students comes at a time when college students are returning to highschool with larger wants. Faculties are additionally beginning to face monetary actuality with the deadline to spend pandemic aid funds somewhat greater than a yr away.

Within the December transient, ODE officers mentioned the transfer to distance studying might have led to a decline in enrollment within the early years of the pandemic, however “it’s regarding that Oregon has not but skilled any enrollment rebound after largely returning to in-person instruction.”

In a message to OPB, ODE officers mentioned the state stays involved about each younger individual in Oregon.

“We’re conscious and vigilant in making an attempt to work with districts and communities to know what have been pandemic impacts and what are longer-lasting impacts to the place college students are engaged and enrolled at school,” mentioned the message from ODE Communications Director Marc Siegel.

The latest nationwide enrollment knowledge accessible present an enrollment decline from 2019 to 2020, however enrollment ticks again up in fall 2021.

State officers mentioned that the decline in Oregon was resulting from a number of components together with households leaving the state, in addition to households discovering different education choices.

Oregon officers estimate that greater than 20,000 college students in Oregon will not be in public faculties. Whereas some could also be doing faculty one other approach, officers say there could also be different causes – together with “self-discipline practices, disengagement, inflexibility, or different structural components” – that drove them away from the general public faculty system.

ODE mentioned homeschooled college students make up most of that 20,000, however that also leaves 1000’s of scholars unaccounted for. They might be in non-public faculties, however state officers don’t accumulate that knowledge.

State officers say it’s the accountability of faculty districts to maintain observe of the scholars they serve, together with “trying to contact those that have left enrollment with out a documented switch to a different academic setting.” The state does present faculty districts entry to details about college students who go away one Oregon district and enroll in one other.

Although Oregon public faculties are now not shedding college students on the similar price, knowledge over the past 4 years present who’s leaving or not enrolling, and who’s coming again.

Over the past 4 years, officers say the decline in enrollment has been “concentrated” amongst white college students and kindergartners.

Amongst white college students, the steep enrollment drop from 2020 has slowed – from a 5.5% decline amongst white college students in 2020-2021 to a 1.2% decline in 2022-2023.

On the similar time, Oregon faculties are getting extra numerous because the variety of college students of shade in faculties has stabilized. There are extra Latino, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, and multi-racial college students now enrolled in Oregon public faculties than there have been in 2020-2021.

As for the place college students have gone, previous conversations have targeted on digital faculties, homeschooling and personal faculties.

Digital faculty en]rollment jumped within the first yr of the pandemic, boosting enrollment in districts with a web-based faculty, however state officers say the rise was “short-lived”.

ODE doesn’t preserve “complete knowledge’’ on college students who attend or have moved to non-public faculty. Whereas ODE has beforehand shared numbers of homeschool college students statewide, officers now say that quantity is barely accessible by contacting particular person schooling service districts.

Siegel mentioned legislators are contemplating whether or not to require the state schooling division to gather knowledge on college students attending non-public faculties or homeschooling.

In keeping with the ODE report, homeschooling accounted for a big a part of the decline in public faculty enrollment, with a reported 70% enhance in homeschool enrollment in 2020-2021 in comparison with the earlier yr, or an increase of roughly 13,000 college students.

Oregon homeschool enrollment for the 2021-2022 faculty yr was 29,162, based on the Related Press – a slight lower from the yr earlier than.

Different households might have moved out of Oregon.

The issue of scholars not returning to highschool will not be distinctive to Oregon. A latest Related Press story highlighted the excessive numbers of “lacking” college students nationwide, calculating that 230,000 college students in 21 states, together with Washington, will not be accounted for and didn’t enroll in non-public faculty or begin homeschooling. The AP’s evaluation didn’t embody Oregon due to incomplete state knowledge.