With masks coming off and extremely transmissible subvariants of omicron circulating, individuals who’ve made it by way of the pandemic with out getting SARS-CoV-2 are all of a sudden getting it.
Individuals who’ve had it already are getting it once more.
It’s Oregon’s seventh surge.
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It’s unfolding in a radically modified world, the place most of our immune methods have some antibodies, from vaccines or earlier an infection, to deploy towards the virus.
That’s curbing the virus’ terrors, if not its unfold.
On the peak of the delta wave final summer time, there have been 197 COVID-19 sufferers on life help in Oregon. Final week, there have been fewer than 10.
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OPB took its questions concerning the present wave and what it says concerning the long-term trajectory of the pandemic to Invoice Messer, an skilled in viral evolution and a clinician who cares for COVID-19 sufferers at OHSU.
Listed below are his observations about what COVID-19 is doing now, and the place the pandemic is headed.
1. Issues are getting higher.
The variety of reported instances is approach up, near the height in the course of the delta wave final summer time.
However the variety of deaths and hospitalizations stays comparatively low.
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And that is smart. There are extra instances in folks with a point of safety from vaccines or earlier an infection, and the omicron variant is much less virulent than delta.
“It could be that it turns into a seasonal respiratory virus however that it received’t carry with it the identical horrific, devastating affect on our well being care infrastructure going ahead that it did early within the pandemic,” Messer stated.
“We’re seeing increasingly proof to counsel that that’s certainly a probable sample.”
Messer cautions, nevertheless, that it’s too quickly to say for certain if the well being results of COVID will proceed to reduce, and there are a number of evolutionary paths the virus can take from right here.
2. The omicron variants are tremendous contagious.
We could also be approaching the restrict of how way more contagious the coronavirus can get.
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One of many main methods variants acquire an evolutionary benefit is that if they’ve mutations that make them extra transmissible.
Every dominant variant of the COVID-19 virus has been extra transmissible than the one it changed.
You possibly can see that how the virus’ replica quantity, R0, has modified. The quantity measures what number of new folks every particular person with the virus infects, absent interventions like masking or vaccines.
The ancestral pressure of SARS-CoV-2 had an R0 of between 2 and three. That R0 elevated to round 6 for the delta variant. The R0 is round 12 for the omicron subvariants circulating now.
That makes the novel coronavirus already one of the vital contagious viruses ever, on par with hen pox, however not fairly as contagious because the measles.
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Messer suspects SARS-CoV-2 is reaching the restrict of how way more contagious it could actually get.
“The variety of new instances that come up from a single case can not proceed to rise infinitely,” he stated. “It’s going to plateau someplace.”
That onerous restrict is because of bodily realities, like how many individuals we will come into contact with whereas infectious, or how a lot we will sneeze.
There’s at all times room for incremental will increase, however Messer shouldn’t be anticipating one other large leap in contagiousness.
3. The present variants are higher at reinfecting us.
Probably the most intriguing elements of the omicron subvariants is their capability for immune evasion: the flexibility to reinfect individuals who’ve been contaminated with different COVID-19 variants and to trigger breakthrough infections in vaccinated folks.
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There are possible a few causes for this. First, analysis has proven that our immunity to COVID-19 wanes comparatively shortly.
And evolution favors variants with mutations that assist the virus evade our immune response.
Messer believes that going ahead, we are going to possible see new variants which are higher at reinfecting us.
Curiously, this means to trigger repeat infections comparatively ceaselessly is a trait SARS-CoV-2 seems to share with different essential coronaviruses: the 4 viruses that trigger the widespread chilly.
Messer stated researchers not too long ago discovered that Individuals are reinfected with chilly viruses about as soon as each 30 months, with proof that some folks can expertise a number of infections from the identical chilly virus inside six months or much less.
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A few of these repeat infections could also be too gentle to trigger signs.
Messer believes it’s affordable to suppose an analogous sample could emerge with COVID-19, the place folks get short-term immunity from an infection or vaccination, however a vaccine that confers five-year immunity is off the desk.
“It appears prefer it’s going to be shorter than that, and it’ll be seasonal and cyclical,” he stated.
4. How sick you’ll get with every an infection is a key unknown.
Whereas vaccination and prior an infection received’t fully shield you from COVID-19, you do retain some antibodies that may mount a response to future infections.
Even waning antibodies supply first rate safety towards probably the most extreme outcomes, like hospitalization and dying.
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However long-term antibody safety could wane over time, and reinfections are nonetheless inflicting comparatively severe signs for many individuals, Messer stated.
When it comes to its means to disrupt our lives and trigger ache, there’s nonetheless an enormous distinction between catching a seasonal COVID-19 variant annually and a seasonal chilly.
Messer stated it’s arduous to know why. It could possibly be that SARS-CoV-2 is just a bit completely different, and nastier, than the widespread chilly coronaviruses.
Or, it may seem nastier as a result of it’s nonetheless very early days on this pandemic, from an evolutionary perspective.
We don’t understand how lengthy the 4 viruses that trigger the widespread chilly have been circulating, or if additionally they appeared extra virulent at first.
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There’s one intriguing set of clues, nevertheless.
Some scientists imagine they’ve pinpointed how and when one of many 4 widespread chilly viruses, human coronavirus OC43, was launched.
In the event that they’re proper, it’s a situation with many echoes of the present pandemic.
The researchers have hypothesized that OC43 leaped from cattle to people about 130 years in the past.
It could have been the reason for a well-documented world respiratory pandemic that killed greater than 1 million folks from 1889 to 1891.
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If that speculation is appropriate, Messer stated, it strengthens the argument that over some interval of years and lots of repeat infections, SARS-CoV-2 will turn into a much less horrible virus.
“The counterargument is the virus is absolutely agnostic about how virulent it’s, it actually simply desires to be transmissible and survive from host to host,” he stated.
5. Reformulating vaccines might be tough
The vaccine most of us have obtained was formulated to guard towards the primary COVID-19 virus we encountered. Whereas it’s nonetheless offering safety towards the worst outcomes of an infection, it’s not a terrific match for the omicron subvariants.
Pfizer and Moderna are growing an omicron variant vaccine, however these efforts are transferring slowly.
Messer stated designing antigens for an omicron variant vaccine isn’t that arduous.
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The larger downside is whether or not a brand new vaccine will earn or lose cash for its maker.
Vaccine makers must see that the general public is prepared to get an up to date model of the COVID-19 vaccine to make it price investing in it, Messer stated.
That will rely partially on how gentle, or extreme, breakthrough infections are for individuals who’ve already been vaccinated.
As well as, vaccine makers might want to wager that the omicron variants will nonetheless be the dominant department of the COVID-19 household tree when a vaccine is able to get into arms. The virus’ fast evolution makes that unsure.
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“I don’t see the clear path ahead to the funding in rolling out the subsequent variant vaccine paying off. That’s a cynical approach of it,” Messer stated.
6. One easy takeaway: Get your booster.
Messer has but to catch COVID-19 himself. Half luck, half care, half the privilege of working in a spot with masking and good hand hygiene.
He stated folks like him who’re vaccinated however haven’t been contaminated are possible fairly vulnerable to getting COVID-19.
The info is obvious that antibodies you get from vaccination wane comparatively shortly. And that may be a motive, in response to Messer, to comply with his recommendation.
“In case you haven’t gotten a booster,” he stated, “do it now.”
A rebound basket with 3.5 seconds left in overtime allowed Santa Clara to escape with an 82-81 overtime win over Oregon State in men’s basketball Thursday night.
The Beavers, looking for their first road win of the season and their third since 2021, just missed when Tyeree Bryan’s tip-in with 3.5 seconds left was the difference.
Oregon State, leading 81-78, had two chances to rescue the win.
Adama Bal, fouled while shooting a three-pointer with 10 seconds remaining, made his first two free throws but missed the third. But Bal outfought OSU for the rebound, then kicked the ball out to Christoph Tilly, whose three-point shot glanced off the rim. Bryan then knifed between two Beaver rebounders, collecting the ball with his right hand and tipping it off the backboard and into the basket.
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OSU (12-5, 2-2 WCC) came up short on a half-court shot at the buzzer.
The loss spoiled what was a 12-point second-half comeback for Oregon State, which led by as many as four points in overtime.
Parsa Fallah led the Beavers with 24 points and seven rebounds. Michael Rataj had a double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds, while Isaiah Sy scored 12 points and Damarco Minor 11.
Elijah Maji scored 21 points for Santa Clara (11-6, 3-1), which has won eight of its last nine games.
The game was tied at 32-32 at halftime following a first half where OSU trailed by as many as 12 points. Fallah and Minor combined to score the final eight points as OSU finished the half on a 10-2 run.
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The game began to get away from the Beavers again as Santa Clara built a 60-48 lead with 9:43 remaining. Sy got OSU going with a three-pointer, as the Beavers whittled away at the deficit. OSU eventually grabbed the lead at 67-65 with 5:19 left on another three by Sy. It was a defensive brawl for the rest of regulation, as neither team scored during the final 1:58.
Oregon State never trailed in overtime until the final three seconds. A Sy three with 1:29 left gave the Beavers a four-point cushion. After the Broncos later cut the lead to one, Fallah’s layup with 17 seconds left put OSU up 81-78.
Oregon State returns to action Saturday when the Beavers complete their two-game road trip at Pacific. Game time is 7 p.m.
–Nick Daschel can be reached at 360-607-4824, ndaschel@oregonian.com or @nickdaschel.
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Mukumoto’s resignation was announced Thursday by Board of Forestry Chair Jim Kelly during a meeting of the board. Mukumoto answers to the board, a citizen panel appointed by the governor that helps oversee and implement forest policy.
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Children are a top priority for the moms in the Legislature and a big reason why many of them are there.
Take Emerson Levy, a renewable energy attorney in Bend. When she ran for the Legislature for the first time in 2020, she was motivated by her 4-year-old daughter, June. A self-described policy nerd, she wanted to support good policies in Salem, particularly those to protect children.
“I felt this huge obligation to my young daughter,” Levy told the Capital Chronicle.
Levy lost in 2020, but she won in 2022 and now she’s headed back to Salem after winning a second term representing the Bend-based 53th District. She is among several mothers in the Legislature, both Democrat and Republican, who juggle the demands of raising children while representing their communities in Salem. Some even have other jobs as well.
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Serving in the Legislature is supposed to be a part time job, with 35-day sessions in even-numbered years and 160-day sessions the others, but the work spills into the rest of the year.
“The Legislature may be part time, but our constituents are not part time,” said state Sen. Sara Gelser Blouin, a mother of four who represents Corvallis in Salem. “Nobody has part-time constituents.”
Being a legislator in Oregon has become a full-time job, with jam-packed “legislative days” in Salem outside sessions to discuss policies and hear from state officials, experts and Oregonians. Lawmakers also serve on task forces and spend time leading up to sessions working on policies. And they need to be available to constituents, to listen and respond to their needs.
Being a mom is also a full-time role. Balancing both is challenging and time-consuming and the legislative job is not well paid.
But Oregon’s legislator moms are passionate about their roles and fighting for issues that impact Oregon kids the most.
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School safety
Levy said her daughter drives her policy work and one of her top priorities is school safety.
Her first year in the Oregon House, she championed funding for silent panic alarms that directly call 911 if there is a school shooting. That provision was passed last year as part of House Bill 5014 on school funding. It included $2.5 million for these alarms, which helped avert even more bloodshed at a September shooting at Apalachee High School in Winder, Ga. The provision is a “funded non-mandate,” which means school districts decide whether to install them.
“Then we can learn from them before we bring it fully statewide,” Levy said.
Levy, who’s a Democrat, has also backed bills to improve health insurance, which can be costly for families and others. Levy and Gelser Blouin, also a Democrat, along with Republican Rep. Cyrus Javadi of Tillamook, sponsored the Co-pay Fairness Bill this year to ensure that insurance companies consider financial assistance from pharmaceutical manufacturers towards patient deductibles. The bill, House Bill 4113, unanimously passed the Oregon House and Senate last March.
In states that haven’t passed such legislation, so-called “copay accumulators” do not count towards deductibles, leaving some patients with extremely high medical bills.
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“Co-pay accumulators are one of the cruelest programs I’ve ever encountered,” Levy said.
They especially impact people with rare diseases like hemophilia or lupus, who often don’t have a generic drug option. The bill, which was signed by Gov. Tina Kotek, banned the programs on Jan. 1.
Navigating health care bureaucracy is something Levy has personal experience with because her adult brother has Down Syndrome.
“Being June’s mom and being the sister of a disabled brother informs everything I do,” Levy said.
A focus on education
Education is also a big focus for moms in the Legislature.
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“Kids are the future,” said Rep. Emily McIntire, an Eagle Point Republican who represents the 56th House District in Jackson County. “And setting up a firm foundation for our children is going to help us exponentially in the long run.”
She is serving on the House education and higher education committees and is a member of the Joint Ways and Means Subcommittee on Education, putting her in a good position to support school spending. An example: She backed a $10.4 billion increase in 2023 to the State School Fund, which funds the state’s secondary schools.
McIntire, whose children are now 16 and 22, is also in legislative leadership, serving as the House Republican assistant leader. McIntire said she was on the Eagle Point school board when local Republicans asked members if they would run to represent the district in the Legislature. She said she felt a calling, ran and won and is now serving her second term on the board while being elected to a second legislative term.
“Everything I look at is through a lens of what’s best for kids,” she said.
Gelser Blouin is also passionate about education. Her oldest son, who has a rare developmental disability called Koolen-de Vries syndrome, is a big influence on her work. She has worked on bills on special education and focused on behavioral health, especially for children with disabilities.
Her Senate Bill 1557, which passed in last year’s session, makes it easier for children with severe emotional or behavioral disturbances to access Medicaid funds to provide extra support at school and at home.
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“These kids have really complex needs. They’re struggling to stay at home with their families. They might be struggling to stay in school. Maybe they have a mental illness or have had contact with the juvenile justice system. Right now, many of these families know that they need help before that big crisis happens,” Gelser Blouin said.
Her bill passed both chambers in 2024 with no opposition, and she plans to introduce a related bill in this year’s session.
She said she believes that understanding the issues from the perspective of being a mom is vital.
Representative Annessa Hartman, D-Gladstone, who has two daughters who are almost 11 and 13, agrees.
“I’m constantly thinking about how [each decision] will impact them in their future,” Hartman said.
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Hartman works for the Native American Youth and Family Center, a Portland-based nonprofit that supports the Indigenous community, and belongs to the Snipe Clan of the Cayuga Nation, which is part of the Haudenosaunee Confederacy based in New York. Her background has a major influence on her work. In crafting policies, she considers the “Seventh Generation Principle” of considering the impact of a decision on future generations.
“That’s embedded in my personal beliefs and teachings,” she said.
Her focus in the Legislature has been on championing issues around domestic violence and sexual assault, two issues that have had a severe effect on indigenous women in particular.
At home, Hartman often asks her girls what they think about what they’re seeing in school — whether it’s poor handwriting or behavioral issues. She said their insight helps shape better policy.
“When I’m sharing that perspective, whether it’s my own caucus or committee, I say, ‘This is what my kids are seeing.’ It’s a powerful tool,” she said.
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McIntire also consults with her children on policy matters.
“When I’m home on the weekend and I have a house full of teenage boys, I’ll ask, ‘What do you guys think of this or of that?’” she said.
Juggling act
Commuting to Salem adds hours to the workday of mom legislators — and other lawmakers. Gelser Blouin has a 45-minute drive from Corvallis to Salem, and she did that every day when her children were young.
As for Levy, she spends 2.5 hours driving from Bend to Salem, while McIntire drives 3.5 hours one way from Eagle Point. Like most lawmakers, they rent apartments in Salem during the session.
Levy said she wouldn’t be a representative if it weren’t for her husband, Sean Levy, who is the general council for St. Charles Health System and manages all the school pick-ups and drop-offs.
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“And dinner!” Levy said.
A former stay-at-home-mom, McIntire also relies on her husband for support. When she first joined the House in 2022, she struggled to stay in contact with her kids, who were then 12 and 19.
“The hours of session are so overwhelming,” she said. “I don’t know that I would have been able to do this if my kids were younger.”
Gelser Blouin, who had three under the age of five when she entered the Oregon Senate in 2005, said she paid friends and relied on family for child care. This was especially necessary as her kids entered middle and high school, when they needed to be driven to after-school activities, she said. Gelser Blouin said she focused on quality time with her kids when she was home in the evenings and weekends.
Gelser Blouin also brought her kids to the Capitol. Her son, Sam, has always loved movies and movie production, so she brought him to legislative days when lawmakers discussed a film and video tax credit. Levy and Hartman helped organize a “Kids Caucus” during spring break last year, an idea that came from Hartman’s daughter, Marley, then 12. The event, organized in part by Hartman and Levy, was for all the children of lawmakers so they could meet one another and be on the floor while their parents were working.
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Instilling a love for public service
Some children of lawmakers follow a similar path, and many arecivically engaged.
Gelser Blouin said all four of her kids are voters and are involved in community activities. Her 24-year-old daughter Nicole is even pursuing a career in politics: She currently works as U.S. Representative Val Hoyle’s legislative aide in Washington D.C.
“That’s the job she’s wanted since middle school!” Gelser-Blouin proudly said.
Though Levy’s daughter, June, is still young at age 9 now, she seems poised to be a politician — or maybe a political strategist. June wisely noted during her mother’s reelection campaign that “it’s gonna be harder this time.” That turned out to be true, with Levy facing a more aggressive campaign with her opponent running negative ads.
June is also Levy’s toughest critic.
“Anytime she sees trash on the street or people that need housing, it’s absolutely my fault,” Levy said. “I should be working harder.”
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Low pay
Moms in the Legislature and others say that one of the downfalls of being a legislator in Oregon is the low pay: $43,434 in 2025. That’s not enough to support a family.
“There’s no way you could raise four kids on one legislator’s salary,” Gelser Blouin said.
Two years ago, three female legislators — two of them moms — quit because of the pay. At the time, their salaries were $33,000 a year.
Lawmakers set their salaries and are reluctant to boost them too much out of concerns that voters might consider that self-serving. So legislators referred a measure to November’s ballot to create an independent committee to set the salaries of legislators and other statewide officials but voters opposed that.
McIntire believes the low salary limits the type of person who can serve.
“If you want it to be a citizens’ Legislature, then you should be able to have all citizens able to do it,” McIntire said.
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Others, including Sen. Gelser Blouin, agreed.
“Most of us that are in elected positions in state government make less than the staff that reports to us,” Gelser Blouin said.
But the moms have made their jobs work, thanks to help from their husbands and others. And they said the difficulty in trying to make the world better for their children is worth it.