NEW MEXICO (KRQE) – Winter started off strong in New Mexico this year with an early season snowstorm in November. That storm dropped several inches of snow around the Albuquerque Metro with record-breaking snowfall in Las Vegas and feet of snow in the mountains. Another storm brought heavy snowfall to the Sacramento Mountains and rain to southern New Mexico in the middle of November. So how does the rest of this winter look?

Usually, the mountains in northern New Mexico see their first average snowfall as early as the middle of October, with the rest of northern New Mexico usually seeing it around the middle of November. For Albuquerque, the average first snowfall is usually towards the end of November. While parts of southern New Mexico see their first snowfall in December, except for the Sacramento Mountains where it usually comes in November.

Average snowfall amounts vary widely across the state thanks to our varying geography. Average snowfall varies anywhere from about an inch in Las Cruces, to around 8″ in Roswell and Albuquerque, to as much as nearly two feet of snow in Santa Fe and 300″ in the Taos Ski Valley!

La Niña

This year, our winter forecast has relied heavily on climate forecast models, along with the influence of a weak La Niña, and previous winters that have similar La Niña conditions. Typically, La Niña means drier than average conditions across the southwest United States, with near average to slightly warmer than average temperatures.

The Climate Prediction Center’s winter outlook for December, January, and February follows this winter La Niña pattern. They are forecasting likely drier than average conditions across New Mexico, with a higher confidence in the southern half of the state. They are also forecasting for likely warmer than average temperatures across New Mexico, again with higher confidence in southern and southwestern parts of the state.

Our Winter Forecast

Looking at long-range forecasts, considering the effect La Niña and other climate patterns may have, and comparing the current climate conditions to a previously similar winter, the KRQE News 13 team of meteorologists have put together this outlook for the 2023-2024 winter in New Mexico:

We are forecasting below-average precipitation across most of the state from December through February. Parts of far northern and northeastern New Mexico, along with southern Colorado will likely see around average precipitation this winter. Most of the state will also see above-average temperatures overall, with warmer temperatures across southern and western New Mexico. Parts of eastern New Mexico and far northern New Mexico along with southern Colorado could see temperatures that are closer to average thanks to backdoor cold fronts and an overall winter pattern that may favor Colorado for snow and colder temperatures.

The KRQE News 13 team of meteorologists also took our best guesses at just how much snow Albuquerque is going to see this winter. Below you will find each meteorologist’s forecast. On average, Albuquerque usually sees 7.9″ of snow each winter.

Bird flu is increasing the cost of what’s on people’s table this Thanksgiving, as deaths of millions of poultry in recent weeks have driven up egg prices and dropped turkey populations to the lowest level in nearly 40 years.

More than 90 million poultry – mostly chickens and turkeys – have been euthanized or infected with avian influenza in the United States. The deaths sharply drove up prices of poultry meat in 2022, which have only slightly abated this year.

Much of California, including some of the country’s largest egg layers, has seen increased infections from the migration of wild birds.Egg prices in California have nearly doubled in a month, as flocks get smaller and can’t keep up with demand.

New Mexico health and veterinary officials said avian influenza has not been detected in state dairy herds or poultry farms since August. Nor has anyone in the state tested positive, even as cases and concerns rise amid the ongoing outbreak elsewhere.

New Mexico was among the first of 15 states currently experiencing the avian flu crossover infections in dairy cows. Infections have spread to nearly 500 dairy herds this year, including top milk producers in California, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

But national experts said the U.S. is failing to keep track of the spread of the disease, because it has a less robust effort to track public health compared to other developed countries.

Instead, the U.S. relies on a patchwork of local health systems that don’t always have the funding for tracking emerging diseases, said Amira Roess, a professor of global health at George Mason University.

“It is hard to comment on whether or not (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) infections are truly rare, given that we do not have active surveillance programs,” Roess said.

Dr. Samantha Holeck, the state veterinarian, said there have been no presumptive cases in New Mexico cows since August, keeping the number of infected New Mexico herds to 9.

Avian flu infections have been limited to Curry and Roosevelt counties, and include a poultry facility in addition to the dairies. There’s no further information about the number of animals impacted, state officials said.

In an emailed statement, Holeck said no deaths in New Mexico dairy herds have been “directly attributed to H5N1.”

It’s a different story for dairy herds in California. Instead of about a 2% mortality rate seen in other states from avian influenza, infected California herds had death rates of 15-20% preventing farmers’ ability to remove the carcasses and fueling further infection concerns.

Infections in humans are increasing 

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 55 people have been infected, including 28 cases in California. People experiencing avian flu reported eye infections – officially called conjunctivitis – and others had flu-like symptoms including chills, coughing, fever, sore throat and runny nose.

Here’s what to watch for avian flu symptoms in backyard flocks and other domestic animals

In New Mexico, only seven people have been tested for avian flu though November. All were negative, said David Morgan, a spokesperson for the New Mexico Department of Health.

New Mexico health officials have only tested symptomatic people, following the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines released in April when the outbreak started. Only in early November did the CDC update its policies to test all farmworkers who come into contact with animals with bird flu, regardless if they’re showing symptoms or not.

Roess said one of the concerns of testing only symptomatic workers is that it can give health experts an inaccurate picture of infection rates. That testing strategy can miss people who carry the disease and quietly transmit it.

Without tests of symptomatic and asymptomatic people, it’s hard to assess how big the risk of an outbreak is or if enough preventative measures are in place.

She also said testing workers in dairies and poultry farms has specific challenges.

“A lot of food production workers are low-wage workers who do not have meaningful healthcare access,” Roess said. “It is extremely difficult to convince someone to take time away from work to go get tested when they are sick if that means they will lose income.”

Federal health officials are publishing data from wastewater monitoring, but independent public health experts have asked states and cities to do more testing for avian flu.

State officials not planning to test wastewater in New Mexico for avian flu

New Mexico officials are submitting results from H5 influenza tests in Santa Fe and Albuquerque to the national dashboard, but are not testing in Curry and Roosevelt counties – where the outbreaks in dairies and a poultry facility have been located.

Morgan didn’t say what would trigger increased surveillance, only saying the department “would pursue wastewater testing if the results would inform public health actions.”

State health officials previously gave sets of masks and gloves to two dairies for their employees and distributed 3,000 sets of personal protective equipment to community groups.

Morgan urged dairy workers and their families to get the seasonal flu vaccine, saying that, while it will not protect against the avian flu H5N1 strain, it will reduce infection from a common flu strain at the same time.

“Being vaccinated against flu also gives the H5N1 virus fewer chances to combine with seasonal influenza strains, which could enable it to transmit person-to-person,” Morgan said.

There is no vaccine widely available for H5N1. TheU.S. has only 5 million of the vaccines against the strain spreading right now.

Migration season sees a spike in cases in other states

As billions of birds are migrating, health officials in other states are raising the alarm about increased cases of bird flu in wild populations.

Contact with infected wild birds caused recent backyard farm animal infections in Washington including pigs.

Pigs plus avian influenza has been a deadly combination before. In 2009, the H1N1 variant (nicknamed the “swine flu”) was a new combination of genes from influenza viruses that infected pigs, people and birds. It infected 20% of the global population.

New Mexico has recorded only 41 cases of avian influenza in wild birds, which pales in comparison to the several hundred cases detected in surrounding states such as Colorado and Utah, according to the USDA’s tracker.

The last date of a wild bird with H5N1 was recorded May 24 in Roosevelt county, according to the USDA data.

Darren Vaughn, a spokesperson for the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish, said he could not provide answers by deadline to questions about the agency’s efforts to catalog avian influenza cases, or make anyone available for comment.

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. – While tomorrow is all about the turkey, Wednesday night has become a holiday all in itself. Some people refer to it as Drinksgiving, or worse, Blackout Wednesday. 

Local law enforcement know it well, and they’re making sure those celebrating are not hitting the roads.

“So this is our B.A.T. it actually stands for our Breath Alcohol Testing mobile,” said Bernalillo County Sheriff’s Office DWI Supervisior, St. Michael Flavin. 

This BAT mobile isn’t prowling the streets of Gotham City, but it is used in the fight against crime across Bernalillo County. 

“This is out here, one as a deterrent. Hopefully, people see us out here and say, ‘Oh, OK so the DWI unit’s out, they’re looking for drunks, impaired or intoxicated drivers,’” said Flavin. 

On the night before Thanksgiving, Flavin says they’re ready to put it to good use.

“If we do find somebody and make the arrest we bring them here, we test their breath and hold them until we take them to the jail,” said Flavin. 

The most wonderful time of the year for so many is the busiest time of year for deputies because as celebrations ramp up, so do DWI patrols. 

“We will pick an area of town, and we concentrate on that area,” Flavin said. 

That’s what they did leading up to Thanksgiving. 

On Tuesday they parked the bat in the South Valley, and it was all hands on deck with their deputies in their DWI unit. 

It was the same story for Wednesday, but the bat and deputies headed north. 

“We’re definitely on high alert around holidays or known drinking times, we see it every year, it hasn’t changed,” said Flavin. 

Flavin says this is not where you want to spend your Thanksgiving. But it could be the best case scenario if you choose to drink and drive. 

“One bad decision, drinking and driving and not planning accordingly, can change your life can change a whole family’s life,” Flavin said. 

To make sure flashing red and white lights aren’t part of your holiday package, plan ahead. 

“If you’re going to pay $20 to $40 for an Uber or Lyft, I think that’s worth it in the short term versus having to hire a lawyer and or get sued by somebody you might hit and or harm,” said Flavin.  

Albuquerque police are also upping their patrols this week and will stage a DWI checkpoint this weekend. 

To help plan ahead, Bernalillo County has an Uber code you can use. That’s going to be “NMTURKEY24,” just put that in your Uber app for up to $10 off two rides.