Money matters in politics, and Gov. Joe Lombardo has a lot of it.
Last week, Lombardo’s campaign announced that he raised about $4.5 million last year. That gives him more than $9 million in the bank. Combined with money in his PACs, his re-election campaign has more than $15 million.
Attorney General and Democrat gubernatorial front-runner Aaron Ford raised less than $2.3 million last year. His expenses topped $1.1 million. It looks like he replaced lobbyist-funded travel with donor-funded travel. His campaign spent lavishly on steakhouses, airfare and hotel stays.
Ford has less than $1.6 million in the bank. Combined with PAC money, he has a bit more than $2 million.
Now, talking about money may seem crass. In an ideal world, politics would be a contest of ideas. Candidates would share their governing philosophies and debate policy proposals. Voters would carefully weigh every candidate’s ideas and character.
But that’s not the world in which we live. Yes, there are people who care deeply about those things — and many of you read this column. But the voters who decide elections aren’t obsessively studying the issues. They’re busy. That’s why candidates speak in soundbites and negative campaigning is so effective.
Looking at money is important for two reasons. One, money spent well translates into votes. This is why both the Democrat National Committee and Turning Point Action are dumping resources into Nevada. Money allows you to identify and turn out your voters.
Money pays for political ads, which can drive up your opponent’s disapproval ratings and boost your approval numbers. No one likes to admit that negative ads work, but they do.
Remember all of the commercials from Democrats over the past two cycles claiming Republicans would ban abortion? Republicans have the presidency and majorities in the House and Senate. The murder of preborn children in Nevada remains legal. But the onslaught of ads helped several Nevada Democrats win re-election.
Ford is a gold mine of opposition research, too. Ford’s vacation tab tops $140,000. Spending time out of Nevada on special interest-funded junkets won’t win over swing voters. Then there’s the fact that Ford hired his old law firm to lead Nevada’s opioid litigation. It’s likely his old firm raked in around $200 million from those efforts.
Two, not raising enough money can lead to a doom spiral. Wealthy donors don’t like throwing their money away, even if doing so helps Ford rack up Marriott points. Without money, a campaign can flounder, which dries up future money — and so on.
Ford’s biggest advantage is that Democrat voters will probably be fired up to vote to express their opposition to President Donald Trump. The economy is also a major variable. If it’s doing poorly, voters will likely assign some of the blame to Lombardo.
Gasoline prices remain a major wildcard. Trump’s energy policies have lowered prices, but California’s refinery closures look likely to send Nevada gas prices skyrocketing.
Bottom line: Lombardo is a favorite, but there’s a lot of time left.
Contact Victor Joecks at vjoecks@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4698. Follow
@victorjoecks on X.
