Control of the U.S. Senate might very well come down to the race in Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester is facing a tough challenge from Republican Tim Sheehy. The bad news for the Democratic incumbent is that recent polling leaves little doubt that he’s the underdog, but the good news for Tester is that the GOP has nominated a rival with an unfortunate record.

As regular readers know, Sheehy, for example, has used racist rhetoric when talking about Native Americans — which is indefensible under any circumstances, and which is especially foolish in a state with a sizable Native population. He has also accused women who support abortion rights of having been “indoctrinated.” Sheehy has also been accused of plagiarism, doctoring footage in a campaign commercial, disparaging firefighters, flubbing the basics of the impeachment process, having a controversial lobbying background, and exaggerating his successes in the private sector.

In case that weren’t quite enough, the candidate wrote in his book that he was discharged from the military for medical reasons, but NBC News reported last month that the discharge paperwork indicates that he resigned voluntarily and it does not list any medical condition that forced him out.

But most important is the question of how and when Sheehy was shot. NBC News reported over the weekend:

The conservative host told the Senate hopeful that his version of events is “so confusing,” and it was a rare instance in which I found myself in agreement with Kelly.

Let’s circle back to our recent coverage and review how we arrived at this point.

The Republican candidate, a retired Navy SEAL, has told Montana voters that he has a bullet stuck in his right forearm “from Afghanistan.” It’s the sort of claim that signals to the public that Sheehy wants to be seen as tough, while simultaneously reminding people about his military service.

And while it certainly appears that there’s a bullet lodged in Sheehy’s right forearm, there’s reason to be skeptical about how it got there.

The Washington Post reported back in April that Sheehy visited Montana’s Glacier National Park in 2015, at which point he told a National Park Service ranger that he accidentally shot himself when his Colt .45 revolver fell and discharged while he was loading his vehicle in the park. Soon after, the Post’s article added, a ranger cited Sheehy for allegedly discharging his weapon in a national park illegally, relying on the Republican’s version of events, and the relevant reports were filed.

More recently, however, Sheehy told the Post that he lied to the National Park Service ranger and that he was actually shot while serving in Afghanistan.

The ranger who interacted with the future Senate candidate, Kim Peach, isn’t buying it. In fact, Peach told The New York Times that he remembers seeing Sheehy at the hospital in 2015 “with a bandage on his arm,” presumably because he’d just accidentally shot himself.

The article added, “Because it is illegal to discharge a firearm in a national park, Mr. Peach said, he and Mr. Sheehy went out to Mr. Sheehy’s vehicle, where Mr. Peach temporarily confiscated the gun and unloaded it, finding five live rounds and the casing of one that had been fired.”

The Times also spoke with one of Sheehy’s former SEAL colleagues, Dave Madden, who recalled swapping war stories with the Montanan about their experiences, and Sheehy never said anything about having been shot.

“Mr. Madden said he was surprised when Mr. Sheehy began talking more recently about having been shot that spring in Afghanistan, and that he became convinced that Mr. Sheehy had invented the story,” the article added.

The question isn’t whether Sheehy lied. The question is when and to whom he lied.

To be sure, the GOP candidate remains adamant that he was shot in Afghanistan and lied about the park incident to protect his former platoonmates from facing a potential investigation.

As Sheehy has explained it, he believed that if he’d told the truth in 2015, it might’ve been reported to the Navy, prompting questions about whether the wound was the result of friendly fire or from enemy ammunition. But the Post reported that it would’ve been “highly unlikely that a civilian hospital would report a years-old bullet wound to the Navy.”

In theory, the candidate could release the relevant medical records and put the matter to rest. In practice, Sheehy now says there are no such medical records.

No wonder Kelly found all of this “so confusing.”

As for the significance of this, Sheehy doesn’t have much of a record to fall back on, so if he lied about getting shot in Afghanistan, it does dramatic harm to one of the key pillars of his entire candidacy. Watch this space.

This post updates our related earlier coverage.

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris will eke out a narrow win against former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state, veteran journalist Jon Ralston, who is revered for the accuracy of his presidential race predictions in the state, forecasted Monday, citing independent voters in the state he thinks will push Harris over the edge.

Key Facts

Surprising Fact

A plurality of voters, 30%, identify as independents in Nevada. Ralston predicts they will swing toward Harris, citing a new Democrat-backed law that automatically registers voters as nonpartisan at DMVs if they don’t choose a political party.

Tangent

The GOP has a lead in mail ballots that have been returned so far, raising their hopes of retaking the state. “Republicans are looking better in the early count than they ever have,” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent who is highly respected for his early voting predictions, told Vox on Tuesday, a week before the election. Ralston said there are some indicators younger voters will cast their ballots later and that independents will favor Harris, however, which could swing the vote toward Democrats.

What To Watch For

The state does not release results until after the last voter in line when polls close at 10 p.m. EST casts their ballot. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to quicker results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could elongate the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

Big Number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Key Background

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic. Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

Tangent

The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

Further Reading

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Keeps Lead In Arizona As Harris Holds Narrow Edge In Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied In Latest Surveys As Race Tightens (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest Survey (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Surprise 1-Point Lead In New Survey (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris’ Lead (Forbes)

RATON, N.M. — Northbound Interstate 25 is closed through Raton Pass due to icy, snow-packed conditions and zero visibility.

The closure goes from mile marker 454, in Raton, to mile marker 460, at Raton Pass and the port of entry.

The New Mexico Department of Transportation camera on I-25 at Raton Pass shows what conditions looked like on the road at around noon Monday:

Northbound I-25 isn’t the only major highway closed in the area. Authorities also closed U.S. Highway 64 earlier in the day from Raton to Clayton – an 82-mile stretch. NMDOT cited road conditions that became “unsafe for travel due to inclement weather.

The NMDOT camera on U.S. 64 at Capulin showed this at around noon Monday: