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Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts

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Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts


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Vice President Kamala Harris will eke out a narrow win against former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state, veteran journalist Jon Ralston, who is revered for the accuracy of his presidential race predictions in the state, forecasted Monday, citing independent voters in the state he thinks will push Harris over the edge.

Key Facts

Harris will win 48.5% of the vote, Trump will win 48.2% and 3.3% of voters will select “none of these candidates” on their ballots, Ralston—CEO and editor of the nonprofit Nevada Independent who has a perfect record of predicting the outcome of presidential races in the state—wrote Monday, calling this year’s election “the hardest since I started doing this.”

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Ralston’s prediction comes as Trump and Harris are virtually tied in other Nevada polls—FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average shows Trump with a 0.4-point edge.

Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the final pre-election Emerson College/The Hill poll out Monday (margin of error 3.3 points), and Harris is up three points, 49%-46%, in a New York Times/Siena poll of likely Nevada voters released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

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Harris is also ahead 51%-47% in a survey of likely voters released last week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of nationwide polls backed by universities (933 respondents).

Meanwhile, Trump is up 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).

Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3%—essentially a tie—among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey released Oct. 23 (margin of error 5 points), she trails Trump 47%-46% in an AARP survey of likely voters released Oct. 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal poll out Oct. 11 (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.

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Nevada—which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes—has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

Surprising Fact

A plurality of voters, 30%, identify as independents in Nevada. Ralston predicts they will swing toward Harris, citing a new Democrat-backed law that automatically registers voters as nonpartisan at DMVs if they don’t choose a political party.

Tangent

The GOP has a lead in mail ballots that have been returned so far, raising their hopes of retaking the state. “Republicans are looking better in the early count than they ever have,” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent who is highly respected for his early voting predictions, told Vox on Tuesday, a week before the election. Ralston said there are some indicators younger voters will cast their ballots later and that independents will favor Harris, however, which could swing the vote toward Democrats.

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What To Watch For

The state does not release results until after the last voter in line when polls close at 10 p.m. EST casts their ballot. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to quicker results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could elongate the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

Big Number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Key Background

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic. Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

Tangent

The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

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Further Reading

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Keeps Lead In Arizona As Harris Holds Narrow Edge In Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied In Latest Surveys As Race Tightens (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest Survey (Forbes)

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Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Surprise 1-Point Lead In New Survey (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris’ Lead (Forbes)



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Nevada’s modern boomtowns are these fast-growing cities, study said

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Nevada’s modern boomtowns are these fast-growing cities, study said


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Nevada’s history as a mining and entertainment state has made it synonymous with boomtowns. Perhaps more than any other state, cities in Nevada can feel like they practically explode overnight (like Las Vegas) and at times are abandoned as quickly as they were inhabited (like the state’s many ghost towns)

SmartAsset, a financial technology company, said in a recent report that Nevada is still home to several boomtowns. SmartAsset defines as cities that “stand out for attracting people, investment and development at a pace that sets them apart.”

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“Boomtown status does not mean growth benefits everyone equally, but it does reflect a city’s expanding economic capacity and the new opportunities that come with it,” wrote SmartAsset.

The list was compiled by analyzing more than 400 U.S. cities with populations of 65,000 or more. Each city received a score based on five-year changes in three factors: economic output, housing units and labor force size. Four Nevada cities landed in the 75 highest-scoring cities, which SmartAsset said represent America’s new boomtowns.

Here’s what else to know.

Nevada is home to these four ‘boomtowns,’ according to Smart Asset

North Las Vegas was the highest-ranked Nevada city on the list, at No. 39. It had a 21% increase in housing units, a 24% increase in the labor force, and a compound annual real GDP growth rate of 3.5%.

Nevada’s runner-up was Sparks at No. 53, which saw housing units grow by 16%, labor force increase by 14%, and a 3.8% compound annual GDP growth rate.

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Henderson followed at No. 63, posting a 13% increase in housing units, an 18% rise in labor force, and a 3.5% annual GDP growth rate.

Reno came in last among Nevada cities on the list at No. 66, with housing units up 14%, a labor force increase of 11%, and a 3.8% compound annual GDP growth rate.

Methodology

In order to determine the country’s boomtowns, Smart Asset looked at U.S. cities with populations of more than 65,000.

Each city was scored across three metrics: five-year labor force change, five-year housing unit change, and county-level compound annual real GDP growth.

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Changes in the labor force (which includes residents ages 16 and older who are employed or actively seeking work) and in housing units were calculated using 2019 and 2024 ACS data.

Real GDP growth was calculated using Bureau of Economic Analysis data for 2019 and 2024; county-level real GDP was used as a proxy for city-level economic output.

Cities were assigned composite scores based on the three metrics and ranked accordingly.

America’s top 10 boomtowns

According to SmartAsset, these are the top 10 boomtowns in the U.S. in 2026:

  1. Georgetown, Texas
  2. New Braunfels, Texas
  3. Lehi, Utah
  4. Leander, Texas
  5. Lewisville, Texas
  6. Palm Coast, Florida
  7. Nampa, Idaho
  8. McKinney, Texas
  9. Conroe, Texas
  10. Frisco, Texas

Diana Leyva with The Tennessean contributed to this report.



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Federal lawsuit alleges years of sexual abuse inside Nevada juvenile detention facilities

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Federal lawsuit alleges years of sexual abuse inside Nevada juvenile detention facilities


Content Warning: This article discusses allegations of sexual abuse involving children and may be difficult for some readers.

A federal lawsuit filed on behalf of 96 former juvenile detainees alleges children were sexually abused inside Nevada’s juvenile justice system over nearly two decades, including at facilities in Clark County.

The 209-page lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court and obtained by News 3, names Clark County, the State of Nevada and numerous current officials as defendants. It alleges staff members sexually abused children in their custody while systemic failures allowed the abuse to continue.

According to the complaint, the allegations span from 2004 through 2022 and involve multiple juvenile facilities across the state, including the Clark County Juvenile Detention Center, Summit View Youth Center, Nevada Youth Training Center, Caliente Youth Center and China Spring Youth Camp.

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In a statement to News 3, plaintiffs’ attorney Tim O’Reilly said the lawsuit is ultimately about children who were failed by the very institutions responsible for protecting them.

“This case is about children who were placed in custody and left vulnerable to the very people and institutions responsible for protecting them,” O’Reilly said. “As detailed in the complaint, they were sexually abused, exploited and silenced while confined in Nevada Juvenile Detention Facilities. No child should ever be harmed by adults entrusted with their safety. Our clients are bravely coming forward to seek accountability and justice for abuse that never should have happened. Their courage sends a powerful message to others who have not yet been able to come forward: they are not alone.”

The lawsuit alleges some children were threatened with longer stays in custody, solitary confinement or the loss of privileges if they reported the abuse.

Liz Ortenburger, CEO of SafeNest, said those allegations reflect the unique power imbalance that can exist when adults have authority over children in custody.

“Whether or not you have the power, that youth absolutely believes you have that power to make that happen,” Ortenburger said. “When we create systems of power and control in which vulnerable youth are in a space where they can be assaulted, we have got to make sure we’ve got incredible checks and balances so that those youth are safe.”

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One of those safeguards is the federal Prison Rape Elimination Act, commonly known as PREA, which establishes standards intended to prevent, detect and respond to sexual abuse inside correctional facilities.

Signs of Hope is the only organization in Nevada with a full-time PREA advocate who works directly with people reporting sexual abuse while in custody.

“They are able to reach out to their PREA advocate and report what has happened to them and receive resources and support,” Signs of Hope CEO Kim Small said. “She’s able to advocate on their behalf and help with the investigation.”

Small said it’s important for the public to understand that being in custody does not strip someone of their rights.

“There are rights. Inmates have rights, and sexual assault is not part of their healing journey,” Small said.

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Ortenburger added that reports involving incarcerated youth deserve to be taken seriously.

“I think there’s a real sort of desire to not want to believe youth, particularly incarcerated youth,” Ortenburger said. “It’s important to believe youth. That does not mean we don’t verify — trust but verify.”

The lawsuit seeks damages, along with future medical and mental health treatment for the plaintiffs. The plaintiffs are also requesting a jury trial, though it could take years before the case reaches trial.

News 3 reached out to Clark County and the Nevada Department of Health and Human Services for comment but had not received a response before deadline.

Resources for survivors

If you or someone you know has experienced sexual abuse or domestic violence, confidential help is available 24 hours a day.

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SafeNest

  • Call or text: 702-646-4981
  • Online chat and additional resources: SafeNest.org

Signs of Hope

  • 24-hour hotline: 702-366-1640
  • Both organizations provide confidential support, advocacy and referrals for survivors throughout Southern Nevada.



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Nevada Legislative Committee to meet in Lake Tahoe

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Nevada Legislative Committee to meet in Lake Tahoe


Marlette Lake from the Spooner Lake approach.
Bill Rozak/Tahoe Daily Tribune

STATELINE, Nev. – The next meeting of the Nevada State Legislative Committee for the Review and Oversight of the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) and the Marlette Lake Water System is scheduled to be held this Friday, July 17 at 12:30 p.m. at the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency office in Stateline, Nev.

The committee, comprised of eight state legislators, holds meetings every other year during interim sessions to discuss the work of TRPA, the Lake Tahoe Environmental Improvement Program, and Nevada state agencies in the Lake Tahoe Basin.

During the July meeting, speakers will provide informational presentations to the committee on water quality and lake clarity, aquatic invasive species, and the latest scientific research taking place at Tahoe.



This is the fifth of six meetings scheduled through August of this year. Other priority topics that have been heard this year include transportation, housing, forest health, and wildfire. The committee webpage has all previous meeting materials and topics listed here. Members of the public are welcome to attend in person or online and to provide input in writing or during scheduled public comment times.

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