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Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts

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Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts


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Vice President Kamala Harris will eke out a narrow win against former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state, veteran journalist Jon Ralston, who is revered for the accuracy of his presidential race predictions in the state, forecasted Monday, citing independent voters in the state he thinks will push Harris over the edge.

Key Facts

Harris will win 48.5% of the vote, Trump will win 48.2% and 3.3% of voters will select “none of these candidates” on their ballots, Ralston—CEO and editor of the nonprofit Nevada Independent who has a perfect record of predicting the outcome of presidential races in the state—wrote Monday, calling this year’s election “the hardest since I started doing this.”

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Ralston’s prediction comes as Trump and Harris are virtually tied in other Nevada polls—FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average shows Trump with a 0.4-point edge.

Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the final pre-election Emerson College/The Hill poll out Monday (margin of error 3.3 points), and Harris is up three points, 49%-46%, in a New York Times/Siena poll of likely Nevada voters released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

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Harris is also ahead 51%-47% in a survey of likely voters released last week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of nationwide polls backed by universities (933 respondents).

Meanwhile, Trump is up 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).

Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3%—essentially a tie—among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey released Oct. 23 (margin of error 5 points), she trails Trump 47%-46% in an AARP survey of likely voters released Oct. 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal poll out Oct. 11 (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.

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Nevada—which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes—has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

Surprising Fact

A plurality of voters, 30%, identify as independents in Nevada. Ralston predicts they will swing toward Harris, citing a new Democrat-backed law that automatically registers voters as nonpartisan at DMVs if they don’t choose a political party.

Tangent

The GOP has a lead in mail ballots that have been returned so far, raising their hopes of retaking the state. “Republicans are looking better in the early count than they ever have,” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent who is highly respected for his early voting predictions, told Vox on Tuesday, a week before the election. Ralston said there are some indicators younger voters will cast their ballots later and that independents will favor Harris, however, which could swing the vote toward Democrats.

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What To Watch For

The state does not release results until after the last voter in line when polls close at 10 p.m. EST casts their ballot. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to quicker results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could elongate the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

Big Number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Key Background

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic. Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

Tangent

The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

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Further Reading

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Keeps Lead In Arizona As Harris Holds Narrow Edge In Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied In Latest Surveys As Race Tightens (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest Survey (Forbes)

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Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Surprise 1-Point Lead In New Survey (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris’ Lead (Forbes)



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Country artist Caleb Montgomery performing at State Fair of Nevada

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Country artist Caleb Montgomery performing at State Fair of Nevada


RENO, Nev. (KOLO) – Country music artist Caleb Montgomery will be performing at the State Fair of Nevada.

Montogomery will be headlining the Opening Night Concert on June 11 at the Nevada State Fairgrounds in Reno.

“We are excited to welcome families and communities from across Nevada back to the official State Fair of Nevada,” said Nevada Department of Agriculture Director J.J. Goicoechea. “After 16 years, a Nevada tradition is finally returning, something many families have waited years to experience again.”

The fair will run from June 11 to June 13, and opening day tickets will be $15 for adults and $12 for kids aged 12 and younger.

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Other featured programming includes:

  • Nevada Junior Livestock Show and Sale
  • University of Nevada, Reno Extension’s 4-H State Expo
  • Next Generation Junior Bull Riding
  • Made in Nevada Farmers’ Market
  • Drone show
  • Local vendors, food and art
  • Carnival rides and more

Copyright 2026 KOLO. All rights reserved.



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Primary election June 2026 – Nevada County results

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Primary election June 2026 – Nevada County results


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NEVADA CITY, Calif. June 2, 2026 – Polls closed at 8:00 pm today. We will post local election results here as soon as they are released.

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June 2, 2026 at 11:54 PM Third and final update, the next results update will be on Friday.

June 2, 2026 at 10:10 PM Second update being published now. The voter counts on the Cumulative Reports are based on the 15 Day Report of Registration and may differ from the Ballot Statistics count.

June 2, 2026 at 8:15 PM First updates

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Federal contests – Nevada County results

CA Secretary of State · June 2, 2026 Primary · Unofficial

U.S. House, District 3

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Source: api.sos.ca.gov · Auto-refreshes every 2 min


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State contests

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CA Secretary of State · June 2, 2026 Primary · Unofficial

Insurance Commissioner

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CA Secretary of State · June 2, 2026 Primary · Unofficial

Attorney General

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Judge blocks Polymarket from operating in Nevada

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Judge blocks Polymarket from operating in Nevada


A Carson City judge has granted the Nevada Gaming Control Board’s motion for a preliminary injunction blocking the operation of a third prediction market in the state.

First Judicial District Court Judge Jason Woodbury on Friday granted the Control Board’s motion and state officials believe a formal written order is forthcoming.

“We are very pleased with Judge Woodbury’s ruling and will continue to vigorously enforce Nevada law to safeguard gaming in our state,” Gaming Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer said in a release issued by the board Monday.

The injunction blocks QCX LLC, doing business as New York cryptocurrency-based Polymarket US, from providing its services in Nevada.

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The Control Board has had similar successes with preliminary injunctions against New York-based KalshiEx LLC, doing business as Kalshi, and internet-centered Coinbase.

The board has taken decisive action in recent months to halt the operations of prediction markets in the state and has successfully restricted the operation of all unlicensed prediction markets that had been known to be operating in the state.

The board started its efforts in March 2025 against prediction markets, which are not licensed by the state but have written event contracts on sports and election outcomes and entertainment propositions.

Regulators consider the offering of sports-event contracts, along with certain other event contracts, to constitute wagering activity under Nevada law. They’ve said that they could operate in the state if were licensed, a process that often takes at least a year to complete.

Prediction markets believe they are authorized to conduct business in Nevada and every other U.S. state because they are regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission, currently chaired by Michael Selig.

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Because of its assertion that it has exclusive jurisdiction, it also has claimed that its oversight outweighs state gaming laws, which has resulted in pushback and lawsuits from a number of states that regulate casino gambling and sports betting.

Several states have pending litigation in place against prediction markets, but Nevada has seemingly found the silver bullet by taking their cases to state courts instead of federal courts.

Nevada’s public policy, as expressed by the Legislature, is that the gaming industry is vitally important to the economy of the state and the general welfare of the inhabitants and therefore “must be licensed, controlled, and assisted to protect the public health, safety, morals, good order, and general welfare of the inhabitants of the state.”

Contact Richard N. Velotta at rvelotta@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3893. Follow @RickVelotta on X.

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