Hawaii
Hawaii economic council carves millions from projected state revenue for ‘very uncertain year’
HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – A council of economic experts Wednesday afternoon voted to carve hundreds of millions of dollars from the state’s bottom line over the next three years.
In addition to tax cuts Hawaii lawmakers approved two years ago, which are having a bigger impact on revenue than expected, the Council on Revenues saw Trump administration policies also dragging down Hawaii’s economy, at least in the short run.
The council brings together experts from universities and major industries to try and predict how much the government has to spend on state programs.
During Wednesday’s meeting via Zoom, that challenge wasn’t easy.
Chair Kurt Kawafuchi, a tax attorney and former state tax director, summed it up: “It sounds like a very uncertain year.”
The experts on the revenue council admitted the main factor in the economy is the unknown, especially about tariffs.
University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization director Carl Bonham said tariffs that change daily are restraining business.
“The real problem right now is you can’t lock in a contract for costs of materials,” he said as other members chimed in with agreement. “So you don’t know what your costs will be three months from now.”
That uncertainty is piled on top of other issues, like a stalled real estate market due to high interest rates and rising development costs, according to Colliers’ Mike Hamasu.
“It’s dismal, abysmal, it’s terrible right now, from our revenues perspective for our brokerage community its down considerably,” Hamasu said.
On the positive side, there is confidence about government construction continuing and defense spending holding up, for the most part, according to Scott Hayashi of SSFM International.
“Those kind of industries will continue on,” he said. “The other environmental kind of stuff, climate resilience funding, those kinds of things are going away. There is some risk, but we are not sure how it’s going to play out.”
Hayashi agreed with other members that Hawaii’s biggest economic driver, tourism, could also be affected.
“The first thing that most people were cutting out of their budget was travel, yeah, leisure travel,” the council said.
They were also concerned about continuing strength of the U.S. dollar, which makes international travel to Hawaii more expensive.
Bonham pointed out that people who can afford a Hawaii vacation are more insulated from slight economic downturns, but a falling stock market could effect luxury travel.
“One of our biggest risks is going to be the stock market still for the higher end,” Bonham said.
The council voted to reduce the estimate of state revenue growth for the current fiscal year, which ends in June, from 6.4% to 5%, and for 2025-26 from -1.8% to -2.25%.
Kawafuchi said that could mean about half a billion dollars less tax revenue over three years.
While that sounds like a lot of money, the state has surpluses and savings on hand that can absorb the reduction. Lawmakers say their main concern is potential cuts to federal social services, like Medicaid.
Copyright 2025 Hawaii News Now. All rights reserved.
Hawaii
Hawaii County Surf Forecast for March 04, 2026 | Big Island Now
Forecast for Big Island Windward and Southeast
| Shores | Tonight | Wednesday | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surf | Surf | |||
| PM | AM | AM | PM | |
| North Facing | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| East Facing | 3-5 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 5-7 |
| South Facing | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Weather | Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers. | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Temperature | In the upper 60s. | ||||||
| Winds | East winds 5 to 10 mph. | ||||||
|
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| Weather | Partly sunny. Numerous showers. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Temperature | In the upper 70s. | |||||
| Winds | East winds 10 to 15 mph. | |||||
|
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| Sunrise | 6:37 AM HST. | |||||
| Sunset | 6:27 PM HST. | |||||
Forecast for Big Island Leeward
| Shores | Tonight | Wednesday | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surf | Surf | |||
| PM | AM | AM | PM | |
| West Facing | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| South Facing | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Weather | Mostly sunny until 6 PM, then mostly cloudy. Hazy. |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Temperature | In the upper 60s. | ||||||||||
| Winds | West winds around 5 mph early in the afternoon, becoming light and variable. |
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|
|||||||||||
| Weather | Partly sunny. Hazy. | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Temperature | In the mid 80s. | ||||||||
| Winds | Light and variable winds, becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. |
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| Sunrise | 6:41 AM HST. | ||||||||
| Sunset | 6:31 PM HST. | ||||||||
The current moderate northwest swell will continue a gradual decline through Thursday. A small west-northwest swell will arrive on Friday and hold through the weekend, followed by a small north-northwest swell early next week. Choppy east shore surf will build to near seasonal average by Wednesday as trade winds strengthen over and east of the islands. Little change is expected along east facing shores through the weekend, followed by a possible decline early next week if winds veer southerly. Surf along south facing shores will remain small to tiny through the weekend, and some islands may an increase in choppy surf if southerly winds develop early next week.
NORTH EAST
am
pm
Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.
Conditions: Semi choppy with ESE winds 5-10mph in the morning increasing to 10-15mph in the afternoon.
NORTH WEST
am
pm
Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.
Conditions: Clean in the early morning with ESE winds less than 5mph. Bumpy/semi bumpy conditions move in during the morning hours with the winds shifting W 5-10mph.
WEST
am
pm
Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.
Conditions: Semi glassy in the morning with N winds less than 5mph. Bumpy/semi bumpy conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting WNW 5-10mph.
SOUTH EAST
am
pm
Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.
Conditions: Light sideshore texture in the morning with NE winds 10-15mph. This becomes Sideshore texture/chop for the afternoon.
Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov and SwellInfo.com
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