Robert Pancratz couldn’t believe it. 

The Musselshell County commissioner had been defeated in the Republican primary for his seat by a two-to-one margin earlier this month. Mark Olson, who lives in Musselshell and serves as the undersheriff in Golden Valley County, won by 26 percentage points.

“That just blew me away,” Pancratz said. “All of my campaign, I had not a hint that there was that much opposition.”

At stake, from Pancratz’s perspective, is the fiscal future of his community, which includes Roundup, Montana, home to Montana’s only longwall coal mine. The mine, owned and operated by Signal Peak Energy, sits on the eastern side of the continental divide in a staunchly conservative part of the state, where its presence provides jobs and its profits generate taxable revenue for local governments. (The vast majority of its coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, goes to markets in Asia.)

But that revenue could potentially be diminished by tens of millions, according to calculations by Pancratz, if a bill introduced by U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., passes Congress. The Crow Revenue Act would convey federally held coal to Signal Peak through a land transfer to a private intermediary, depriving Musselshell County of its share of the taxes Signal Peak Energy pays to mine coal on federal land. 

If the Crow Revenue Act does not pass Congress, Signal Peak says it could be forced to shut down if it loses a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana challenging the “energy emergency” the Trump administration used to grant the mine access to federal coal. That outcome would wipe out all the mine’s tax revenue and hundreds of jobs, the company claims. This month’s election hinged on Pancratz’s position on the bill and, by extension, the mine. 

Musselshell County’s three commissioners, Mike Goffena, Mike Turley and Pancratz support keeping the mine open. But they also fear Musselshell County would need to raise taxes and cut services to balance its books if the Crow Revenue Act passes as written. After studying the county’s finances, Pancratz, who works as a risk analyst consultant, concluded that the county could lose as much as $11.6 million if the Crow Revenue Act passes and the price of coal is high. The commissioners have lobbied for changes to the bill that would guarantee the county some revenue from the land transfer. 

Pancratz says he was just doing his job.

“As a risk manager, I have to develop a contingency plan for the possibility that the long-term stream of coal revenue could be disrupted or ended,” he said. “We needed to have a plan to effectively transition to other revenue sources. When I used the word transition, they took that as I was an environmentalist that was against coal.” 

“Why anybody would have a problem with that is baffling to me. But that’s what happened.”

According to Pancratz, Signal Peak Energy branded the men as environmentalists who want to see the company shut down forever and this willful mischaracterization played a large role in his defeat.

“The picture they painted of me was totally false,” he said.

In a recording of a commissioner meeting posted to a local Facebook group by a Signal Peak Energy employee less than a month before the election, Pancratz, Goffena and Turley can be heard strategizing how to express their concerns about the Crow Revenue Act to Daines, whom they describe as unresponsive to their concerns. 

Pancratz suggests asking for a $100 million endowment to transition from coal to “scare” Daines and Signal Peak Energy. Turley states that with funding at that level, they wouldn’t care if the mine was open or not.

“Exactly,” Pancratz responded.

Comments on the video show viewers expressing outrage that the commissioners would “play chicken” with the future of the mine, which provides hundreds of jobs in the surrounding area. 

Pancratz said the conversation was recorded without the commissioners’ knowledge. Montana is a two-party consent state, meaning all parties must be aware of and consent to a recording, but he allowed that it was possible one of the commissioners forgot to close a virtual public meeting after it concluded.

Pancratz said the conversation occurred when the commissioners found out there would be no money in the Crow Revenue Act for the county. The bill’s supporters, including Signal Peak Energy, had told them that the county would not lose any revenue under the bill, he said. 

“We were upset because we felt we’d been lied to,” Pancratz said.

Signal Peak Energy did not respond to a written message and phone call seeking comment. For a time after Signal Peak took over the mine in the late 2000s, it was plagued by malfeasance, including embezzlement, a faked kidnapping and safety and environmental violations, according to reporting by The New York Times.

Olson said he entered the race due to a “lack of transparency” from the commissioners over how the county was spending its money.

But the mine played a role in his decision to run, too. As he was weighing his options, Olson said his cousin, Alan Olson, a former state legislator and former executive director of the Montana Petroleum Association, visited him and urged him to run to support the mine. After that conversation, he was convinced the mine’s survival depended on the Crow Revenue Act passing, and that trying to amend it would jeopardize the legislation.

“The more money we can get for the county, the better, but I don’t think it’s worth risking the mine closing,” Olson said. Losing federal revenue was better than losing all the jobs and the tax base if the mine closes, he concluded. 

Olson added that Parker Phipps, Signal Peak Energy’s CEO, has briefed him on the mine’s fiscal relationship with Musselshell County.

Olson’s background in law enforcement could add a new perspective to the county commissioner meetings, given Goffena and Turley’s background in ranching, he said, but the minutiae of the county’s budget will be new to him. 

“I am by no means an expert in any of this stuff,” he said.

Some worry that, with the mine facing a lawsuit, an unpredictable global coal market and the uncertain future of the Crow Revenue Act, the commissioners cannot afford to lose momentum in their efforts to attract new industries to the area.

Olson’s win in the primary will “set [economic diversification planning] back long term,” Nicole Borner, a former Musselshell County commissioner, who thinks Olson was hand-picked by the Signal Peak Energy to run and is not informed about what the job entails. 

“We will always just have a few crumbs to duct tape a few issues,” she said. “We’ll never be able to fix the prior forty years of being in a coal bust and our infrastructure just literally falling apart.” 

Olson will likely run unopposed in the general election.

In his remaining time in office, Pancratz said he will continue to push for economic diversification in Musselshell County. He holds no animosity towards Olson, who calls Pancratz “a wonderful guy.” Instead, he laments not addressing concerns over his position on the mine sooner in the campaign. But he believes Signal Peak Energy’s political and social influence—the company operates a charity in the region—is what swayed the election.

“You can’t say anything that even remotely implies that you’re trying to prepare the county for the possibility that coal revenue may not be steady or high … There’s this attitude that the county is in debt to that coal mine. And the message I tried to get out is, it’s more the reverse,” Pancratz said. 

“I personally don’t believe the mine really cares about the county.”

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. – Albuquerque police are investigating a fatal crash after a vehicle struck a pedestrian early Saturday morning.

Police said the crash happened near Central Avenue and Maple. The pedestrian died at the scene from their injuries.

Police continue to investigate the crash.

Stay with KOB 4 Eyewitness News and KOB.com for updates.