The Denver Broncos face another divisional opponent on Sunday, the Los Angeles Chargers. Sean Payton’s return to New Orleans on Thursday will follow.

Historically, the teams that play Thursday night struggle the Sunday prior, so that doesn’t bode well for a Payton-led squad that has had issues on offense. However, there are ways the Broncos can attack the Chargers to help them walk out with their fourth straight win. 

The Chargers defense has had a solid start to the season, though that is boosted by some of the quarterbacks they have played. The Chargers had an excellent game against the Bryce Young-led Carolina Panthers, which increased their numbers overall.

In their other three games, the Chargers defense allowed the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to have its best game, the Garnder Minshew-led Las Vegas Raiders offense to have its second-best game, and the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs to have their second-worst game this season. 

The Chargers have been up and down this season, but there is one area where they haven’t been tested enough and have struggled. There have only been 25 passing attempts of 10-plus air yards against the Chargers, with five being 20-plus air yards.

This defense has the 11th-highest percentage of passing plays against them. It makes sense that teams haven’t been able to attack the Chargers on 10-plus air yards with the pass rushers that they have. 

The Broncos offense emphasizes attacking the Chargers in the intermediate and deep parts of the field. On the 20 attempts of 10-19 air yards, the Chargers have generated four pressures and allowed the 11th-highest EPA/Pass in that field area.

Then, on the 20-plus air yards, the Chargers are one of four teams with under 10 passing attempts of this distance. They allowed one touchdown with two pressures on these five passes. The key for the Broncos here is to keep the pass rush at bay. 

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On the flip side, the Broncos defense needs to shut down the Chargers’ quicker passing game and force Justin Herbert to hold the ball and try to make plays happen. Herbert has been dealing with an ankle injury, leading to a limited and struggling passing offense, especially on plays over 2.5 seconds. 

Now, the Chargers have called 102 passing plays in four games, 42 of which have been under 2.5 seconds. They have the second-highest EPA/pass on those plays and the eighth-highest yards after catch over expected with +54, meaning they are picking up 54 extra yards after the catch beyond what was expected.

However, the Chargers also give up the sixth-highest pressure rate on these passes. The Broncos still want to force them to take longer. 

On passing plays over 2.5 seconds, the Chargers have the third-lowest passing yards per play at 3.3. They aren’t pushing the ball and end up dumping it off, and also have the sixth-lowest yards after catch over expected at -6, meaning they aren’t meeting the expectation.

The Chargers are facing the third-highest pressure rate and 11th-highest sack rate, allowing the third-fastest time to pressure at 2.55 seconds. So, you force Herbert to hold onto the ball, and the offensive efficiency of the passing game goes out the window. 

The Chargers will check it down, which the Broncos are okay with, as the defense does a good job coming downhill to make the play. However, the Broncos excel when forcing teams to hold onto the ball, as they have the best defensive EPA/Pass in these situations. Denver also boasts the fifth-best pressure rate and second-best sack rate. 

So, the Broncos offense wants to hold the Chargers’ pass rush at bay to attack the intermediate and deep parts of the field. Meanwhile, the Broncos defense wants to force Herbert to hold onto the ball.

If the Broncos can do this, it will go a long way toward getting to 4-2 and putting them in an exceptional position for the rest of the season. 

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