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Broncos analysis: What we’ve learned about Sean Payton’s team in Week 1 of free agency and what questions remain

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Broncos analysis: What we’ve learned about Sean Payton’s team in Week 1 of free agency and what questions remain


A week’s worth of free agency is in the books for the Broncos.

They’ve added a trio of defenders in safety Brandon Jones, defensive tackle Malcolm Roach and inside linebacker Cody Barton. They’ve retained several more from Sean Payton’s first year in Denver.

They’ve explored several options at quarterback but haven’t come away with a transaction to show for it.

In the process, the Broncos cleared a significant amount of cap space and committed, officially, to using $53 million of it to pay down the first big chunk of former quarterback Russell Wilson’s $85 million in dead salary cap charges.

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General manager George Paton predicted at the NFL combine last month that the Broncos would be “strategic” rather than aggressive and that word fits the bill so far. Denver has proceeded clearly set against overspending in an offseason that is shaping up to look like a re-set.

Here’s what we’ve learned and what questions remain.

Three things we learned

The identity of Vance Joseph’s defense is going to be different

By sheer numbers, the Broncos may not actually have much turnover on defense. By leadership, though, this group is going to look markedly different in 2024.

In and of themselves, the departures of safety Justin Simmons and Josey Jewell aren’t shocking, though seeing Simmons released in the days before free agency was a surprise. Taken together, that pair represented the central nervous system of Denver’s defense for years, a guiding force across several head coaches and coordinators.

Jewell relayed the defensive calls from Joseph on the sideline. Then Simmons served as the quarterback from the back end, ensuring the secondary communicated coverage with the linebackers, corners and nickel Ja’Quan McMillian.

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Now the two communication hubs — and two of Denver’s defensive leaders — are gone. It won’t be entirely new, of course. Alex Singleton called the defense when Jewell was out. P.J. Locke has played a lot. ILB Jonas Griffith and S Caden Sterns have been around and are hoping to stay healthy.

“​​I feel good about the young core on defense, and we will just continue to add depth,” Paton said at the combine before the team signed Jones and Roach in free agency and got Locke back on a two-year deal.

Denver Broncos linebacker Alex Singleton (49) waves his arms up and down trying to get the crowd loader during the second half at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas on Dec. 3, 2023. The Houston Texans beat the Denver Broncos 22 to 17 during week 13 of 2023 NFL season. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)

Still, if a football defense is something like a baseball defense — you want to be strong up the middle at every level — then Denver is doing the rough equivalent of replacing its shortstop and center fielder.

This is now a group led by cornerback Pat Surtain II, defensive lineman Zach Allen and others like outside linebacker Baron Browning and Singleton. Familiar names, but also a new look and feel in the locker room.

The shakeup may have been anticipated, but it’s still massive

Aside from releasing Simmons rather than trading him or finding a way to extend his deal and lower his cap hit, none of the Broncos’ moves went down as stunners.

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All the same, it is worth taking a step back and considering what’s happened this month.

Draw up a list of the most notable Broncos from the 2023 team. How far down the list do you get before you’ve added Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy and Simmons? Five or six, maybe? Jewell’s not far down the list from them, either.

Consider that seismic change and then think back to the middle of the season when Payton summarized his regular conversations with Paton in the lead-up to the trade deadline.

“We’ve got a good handle on this current roster and our vision for the roster a year from now,” Payton said then.

Denver could have worked on several veteran contracts before the 2023 season or during — it now infamously did try to do so with Wilson — but proceeded in a way that allowed the team to make whichever decision it wanted on a host of its most expensive players.

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The first wave of moves on that front played out over the last 10 days. The string of goodbyes and thank-yous on social media is a good reminder that, while sentimentality exists in the NFL, it gets blocked out when making roster decisions.

The enduring trio

Despite the churn, left tackle Garett Bolles and receivers Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton endure. They’re now the longest-tenured trio of Broncos.

Patrick reworked his deal to stay for 2024, while the contracts for Sutton and Bolles remain unchanged. Sutton is due a $2 million roster bonus Sunday.

It’s quite possible that 2024 could be the last hurrah for any one or all of them, but overall the Broncos like Patrick’s leadership and the way Sutton responded in a 10-touchdown season under Payton in 2023. Bolles played steadily in 2023.

Denver cleared enough salary cap space in other ways that it can comfortably move forward with all three on the roster for 2024. The Broncos don’t have to look to trade Sutton or Bolles — they have not been in recent weeks, sources have indicated — though the possibility of moving either can’t be entirely ruled out if the right deal comes along.

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Perhaps the draft will change the equation, either for Denver or another team. Bolles and Patrick are entering the final year of their contracts and the Broncos aren’t meaningfully committed to Sutton in terms of guaranteed money, either.

For now, this is the group that looks like 2024-and-then-we’ll-see.

Three questions that remain unanswered

The big one

The Broncos have been knee-deep in quarterback evaluation — free agency, trade market and next month’s draft — but have made no moves thus far.

Perhaps the most logical candidates from each of the first two categories were Sam Darnold and Sam Howell, respectively. Darnold got a one-year, $10 million deal from Minnesota, more than double what Baker Mayfield got last year as a former top draft pick trying to engineer a career resurgence. Washington got the equivalent of a late third-round draft pick from Seattle in exchange for Howell. Those are pretty strong prices and, in each case, the Broncos were clearly not willing to match or exceed.

The Broncos started the offseason looking for a player to add to their current mix of Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci in addition to a potential rookie. That they haven’t found that player so far might be just fine by them, but when you don’t have your answer at the game’s most important position, every move (or non-move) gets extra scrutiny.

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Just how ready is Sean Payton to let the kids play?

Many of the Broncos’ moves this offseason signal a team getting younger and cheaper. Lloyd Cushenberry’s gone on a four-year, $50 million deal to Tennessee? Either second-year man Alex Forsyth or third-year Luke Wattenberg to replace him. Jeudy traded? In steps Marvin Mims, Jr. Denver views corner Riley Moss as a starting-caliber player but he only saw 23 defensive snaps as a rookie. Safety JL Skinner? One defensive snap

The players who got the most run as rookies were Mims (384 snaps or 35.4%) and linebacker Drew Sanders (23.8%).

The fact that the Broncos had a lack of immediate impact from its 2023 draft class may not come as a big shock since they didn’t pick until the last selection of the second round, but the Year 1 to Year 2 jump for this group — plus college free agents like Jaleel McLaughlin, Nate Adkins and several offensive linemen — is going to be critical. And where Denver was reluctant to put Sanders, Moss and Mims into big roles right away as rookies, the coaching staff may not have the same luxury with its 2024 draft class.

Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (19) during warmups before playing the Minnesota Vikings at Empower Field at Mile High Nov. 19, 2023. (Photo by Andy Cross/The Denver Post)
Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (19) during warmups before playing the Minnesota Vikings at Empower Field at Mile High Nov. 19, 2023. (Photo by Andy Cross/The Denver Post)

You’ve got $67 million in dead salary cap so far. You’ve cleared some big contracts off the books by release and trade. Roll with the kids. Let them play, make mistakes and learn. A Los Angeles Rams team in a similar situation (except at quarterback) took that route in 2023 and ended up making a surprise run toward the playoffs after looking like a mess during a 3-6 start.

What’s the best use of remaining cap space?

The Broncos have somewhere between $22.6 million in cap space to work with before Barton’s deal is official, according to OvertheCap data. Their current slate of draft picks projects to take up about $4 million more, though that will change slightly depending on how much the team moves around in the draft.

So for estimate’s sake let’s say Denver has $16 million to work with now. They’ll sign more players, though big, splashy contracts at this point would be a surprise.

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Here’s one path forward: Stuff most of the rest in your pocket and don’t even think about it until 2025. The NFL allows teams to roll cap space over. Denver had been at about $10 million in rollover until having less than $1 million this year.

Get back on that track. Take $10 million and treat it as if you’re actually paying down $63 million of Wilson’s dead cap rather than $53 million. If you surprise and you’re in contention mid-season, go ahead and deploy some of that flexibility for the here and now.

Otherwise, save as much of it as you can and spend it next year on mega-extensions for Pat Surtain II and Quinn Meinerz. Prepare for bigger cap hits from 2023 free-agent additions like Mike McGlinchey, Ben Powers and Zach Allen. After converting all of their salaries to bonuses for 2024, their combined cap charges this year are a paltry $21.65 million. Currently for 2025, the trio combines to charge $61.03 million.

Denver only has 27 players currently under contract for 2025 (28 once Surtain’s fifth-year option is exercised between now and May 2). Play this year right with the remaining cap space, and the team could have ample room to work, a curbed Wilson dead cap figure to clear his money entirely off the books and perhaps, finally, a full draft class to work with on top of the cap flexibility.

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Five takeaways from Denver’s restaurant report

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Five takeaways from Denver’s restaurant report


Marlee Brown serves guests at Trybal African Speakeasy in Denver on Feb. 25, 2026. (Kevin Mohatt/Special to The Denver Post)

Denver’s restaurant scene is in crisis.

So much so that the city, VisitDenver and Austin, Texas-based restaurant financing company InKind commissioned a report to detail the industry.

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Denver’s rising tipped minimum wage, which has more than doubled since 2019 and sits at $16.27 an hour, was the biggest complaint of local restaurateurs. But the 67-page document outlined a host of other problems creating an unfavorable environment for operators in the city.

“The energy of the city used to flow through our dining rooms,” a longtime, independent full-service operator said, according to the report. “Now it feels like people go out less often, spend more cautiously, and are more likely to stay home or order in.”

The report was written by Adam Schlegel, who co-founded Snooze A.M. Eatery and Chook Charcoal Chicken, and Dana Faulk Query, the co-owner of Big Red F Restaurant Group. To compile it, they surveyed over 150 establishments, conducted interviews with operators and brokers and analyzed profit and loss statements along with publicly available datasets.

Here are five takeaways:

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Screenshot 2026 03 05 at 2.38.42 PM

Denver lost thousands of restaurant jobs between 2020 and 2025

Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicates that Denver had 6% fewer restaurant sector workers in 2025 than at the beginning of 2020. That’s largely due to a 15% decline in the full-service restaurant category, according to the report. 

Before the start of the pandemic, restaurant employment in Denver was growing at a 2.3% annual rate. If it had continued at that rate, there would be 10,000 to 15,000 more workers today than there actually are, according to the report.

Restaurants employ 7.9% of Denver’s total workers, down 8.7% from 2019, and account for 13% of the city’s tax revenue, the report said.

Screenshot 2026 03 04 at 2.53.52 PM

Restaurants would have needed 40% sales growth to offset rising expenses

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According to the report, from 2019 through 2024, hourly labor costs increased 50% to 55%, rent increased 23% and cost of goods sold rose 22%. Profits, on the other hand, declined 20%.

Sales increased by 5%, but an analysis by the report’s authors determined that number would need to be in the 36% to 40% range to offset the aforementioned hikes.

The number of guests coming through restaurant doors is also decreasing, the report said. And Denver reported the sharpest decrease of major metros in restaurant spending this past fall.

“This mismatch has left many operators with limited options beyond reducing labor hours, eliminating positions, delaying hiring, or closing altogether,” the report said.

Screenshot 2026 03 04 at 3.03.31 PM

Denver’s costs and prices are on par with New York and L.A.’s

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The report said Denver’s dining scene looks less like a middle-America growth market and more like a “high-cost coastal city” without the population size to support it. Though it acknowledged that Denver’s rising wages have closed the cost of living gap compared with before the pandemic, it’s paid the price with lost jobs and other rising costs.

According to the Washington Hospitality Association’s 2025 Cost of Dining Report, Colorado’s menu prices are 5.1% above the national average and Denver’s are about 2.7% above the average for the 20 largest U.S. cities. That puts it firmly in the high-cost tier of American dining markets.

But rather than garnering the growth and attention that “tier one” cities like New York and Los Angeles get, Denver is in the category of “high-wage, tight-labor” cities like San Francisco, Portland and Seattle.

“Establishments grew, but employment is up only modestly versus 2013 and down from 2019 in key categories, signaling staffing strain rather than robust job growth,” the report details.

Denver’s scene is lagging compared with the rest of the state

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While dining out across Colorado has taken a hit since the start of the pandemic, the report shows that the changes are most pronounced in Denver. The industry hasn’t bounced back on par with the rest of the state, the report says.

With full-service restaurants in particular, employment and the number of establishments has dropped significantly more than the category across the state. Employment across the entire sector dropped 4.3% in Denver from 2019 to 2024 while seeing a 3.3% decline everywhere else in Colorado.

“Collectively, these findings indicate that Denver’s restaurant workforce challenges are not the result of poor management or short-term disruptions, but of sustained cost pressures that increasingly limit employers’ ability to maintain staffing levels, create new jobs, and invest in long-term workforce development,” the report says.

Despite improvements, city bureaucracy still a challenge

Architects, general contractors and operators said that while each individual city department is helpful in a vacuum, the process is fragmented and disjointed. Based on interviews with restaurant owners, those delays can cost up to $70,000 a month between operating expenses and lost revenue, the report said.

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That’s despite improvements made to the permitting process by Mayor Mike Johnston, including the launch of Denver’s Permitting Office in May and programs like around downtown express permitting.



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Ranking the Broncos free agent needs on offense

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Ranking the Broncos free agent needs on offense


NFL Free Agency opens up on Wednesday, with the legal tampering period beginning on Monday. The top free agents usually all commit to a team during that period, so be ready to rock and roll to start next week.

I figured now would be a good time to do a little discussion around the Denver Broncos and where we think their top priorities should be on offense when free agency kicks off.

Broncos top FA needs on offense

Tim Lynch: For free agency, I’d say running back and tight end are the highest on my wish list.

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I’d say pay big for a top free agent running back and ensure you have a monster two-headed backfield next season. They need a superior run-blocking tight end and, if they move on from Evan Engram, a pass-catcher too.

Christopher Hart: I agree with Tim. Those are the biggest needs for the offense. Getting a top-notch running back and a tight end capable of playing inline to replace Adam Trautman is a must. The two players I advocated a few weeks ago were running back Travis Etienne and tight end Cade Otton. Both would be fantastic additions and help take Denver’s offense to the next level in 2026.

Scotty Payne: Playmaker is the top and biggest need. That includes a RB, TE, and/or WR in that order.

Need to improve the run game regardless, need some sort of production out of the TEs as well as improved blocking, and if they can get a true WR1, that would be great too.

Ross Allen: I think we’re all in agreement.

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Getting someone who can be the dominant running back and have RJ Harvey serve that glamorous “joker” role would be huge for this offense. And given that they also don’t have a legitimate playmaker at the receiving position hurts them. A TE or WR can fill that role.

Sadaraine: The #1 need for the Broncos on offense is a top-notch running back. I will be blown away if the Broncos don’t sign a top-tier free agent running back to upgrade the offense (and no, J.K. Dobbins wouldn’t be that guy…not with his injury history).

There’s a significant gap in need after that until we start talking about tight ends and receivers. I think we’re more likely to see more money spent on a tight end than a receiver, but this offense could use both to be sure.

Ian St. Clair: Not to beat a dead horse, but running back is the biggest need and priority for this team when free agency starts. Having a consistent and effective running game will make Nix and the offense exponentially better. It will make the team better. After running back, the Broncos need to figure out their tight end.

Adam Malnati: Give Bo a weapon. I don’t care which position. Yes, RB is a need. Yes, TE is a need (thanks a lot Evan Engram). Still, a weapon would be nice.

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Predictably, we’re all heavily keyed in on running back and tight end. That was a big part of our free agent profile coverage too and for good reason. There have been many rumors around Denver looking to target both positions next week and where there is smoke there is usually fire.

The question really becomes: go big or go affordable? With the championship window open, I’m leaning go big on premium play-maker positions this offseason.

Where do you stand on this discussion? Give us your top free agent needs on offense and how you hope the Broncos address them next week.



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Denver area events for March 5

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Denver area events for March 5


If you have an event taking place in the Denver area, email information to carlotta.olson@gazette.com at least two weeks in advance. All events are listed in the calendar on space availability. Thursday Camilla Vaitaitis Quartet — 6:30 p.m., Dazzle at Baur’s, 1080 14th St., Denver, go online for prices. Tickets: dazzledenver.com/#/events. Miguel — 7 p.m., Fillmore Auditorium, […]



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